Paweł Tokarski
@tokarski.bsky.social
Money and politics, monetary integration in the EU, with a focus on France and Italy, at the SWP think tank in Berlin.
PhD in economics, College of Europe (Natolin) Alumnus
Views expressed are my own
PhD in economics, College of Europe (Natolin) Alumnus
Views expressed are my own
Reposted by Paweł Tokarski
Like I wrote a couple of years ago here in die Zeit, Germany should stay out of this race.
www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2...
www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2...
There is growing speculation about who will succeed Christine Lagarde at the ECB.
www.ft.com/content/45fc...
www.ft.com/content/45fc...
ECB to kick off race for top roles as Lagarde era enters final stretch
Four of six jobs on central bank’s executive board become vacant before end of 2027, including the presidency
www.ft.com
November 10, 2025 at 5:40 PM
Like I wrote a couple of years ago here in die Zeit, Germany should stay out of this race.
www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2...
www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2...
Like I wrote a couple of years ago here in die Zeit, Germany should stay out of this race.
www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2...
www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2...
There is growing speculation about who will succeed Christine Lagarde at the ECB.
www.ft.com/content/45fc...
www.ft.com/content/45fc...
ECB to kick off race for top roles as Lagarde era enters final stretch
Four of six jobs on central bank’s executive board become vacant before end of 2027, including the presidency
www.ft.com
November 10, 2025 at 5:40 PM
Like I wrote a couple of years ago here in die Zeit, Germany should stay out of this race.
www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2...
www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2...
Reposted by Paweł Tokarski
There is growing speculation about who will succeed Christine Lagarde at the ECB.
www.ft.com/content/45fc...
www.ft.com/content/45fc...
ECB to kick off race for top roles as Lagarde era enters final stretch
Four of six jobs on central bank’s executive board become vacant before end of 2027, including the presidency
www.ft.com
November 10, 2025 at 5:19 PM
There is growing speculation about who will succeed Christine Lagarde at the ECB.
www.ft.com/content/45fc...
www.ft.com/content/45fc...
There is growing speculation about who will succeed Christine Lagarde at the ECB.
www.ft.com/content/45fc...
www.ft.com/content/45fc...
ECB to kick off race for top roles as Lagarde era enters final stretch
Four of six jobs on central bank’s executive board become vacant before end of 2027, including the presidency
www.ft.com
November 10, 2025 at 5:19 PM
There is growing speculation about who will succeed Christine Lagarde at the ECB.
www.ft.com/content/45fc...
www.ft.com/content/45fc...
Reposted by Paweł Tokarski
The EU also issues its own debt. Its current borrowing needs are slightly below those of Spain.
Eurozone countries are set to hit record borrowing numbers in 2026, with France at the top of the list.
www.lesechos.fr/finance-marc...
www.lesechos.fr/finance-marc...
November 10, 2025 at 11:28 AM
The EU also issues its own debt. Its current borrowing needs are slightly below those of Spain.
The EU also issues its own debt. Its current borrowing needs are slightly below those of Spain.
Eurozone countries are set to hit record borrowing numbers in 2026, with France at the top of the list.
www.lesechos.fr/finance-marc...
www.lesechos.fr/finance-marc...
November 10, 2025 at 11:28 AM
The EU also issues its own debt. Its current borrowing needs are slightly below those of Spain.
Reposted by Paweł Tokarski
Eurozone countries are set to hit record borrowing numbers in 2026, with France at the top of the list.
www.lesechos.fr/finance-marc...
www.lesechos.fr/finance-marc...
November 10, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Eurozone countries are set to hit record borrowing numbers in 2026, with France at the top of the list.
www.lesechos.fr/finance-marc...
www.lesechos.fr/finance-marc...
Eurozone countries are set to hit record borrowing numbers in 2026, with France at the top of the list.
www.lesechos.fr/finance-marc...
www.lesechos.fr/finance-marc...
November 10, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Eurozone countries are set to hit record borrowing numbers in 2026, with France at the top of the list.
www.lesechos.fr/finance-marc...
www.lesechos.fr/finance-marc...
Reposted by Paweł Tokarski
Die wachsende Schuldenlast Europas & geopolitische Spannungen verstärken sich gegenseitig. Doch das Schuldenproblem ist längst nicht mehr nur das Ergebnis von Krisen, sondern ein anhaltender, struktureller Trend, meint @tokarski.bsky.social @swp-europe.bsky.social www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
Die EU im fiskal-geopolitischen Teufelskreis
Die wachsende Schuldenlast Europas und geopolitische Spannungen verstärken sich gegenseitig: Fehlender Haushaltsspielraum schwächt die...
www.swp-berlin.org
November 7, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Die wachsende Schuldenlast Europas & geopolitische Spannungen verstärken sich gegenseitig. Doch das Schuldenproblem ist längst nicht mehr nur das Ergebnis von Krisen, sondern ein anhaltender, struktureller Trend, meint @tokarski.bsky.social @swp-europe.bsky.social www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
Reposted by Paweł Tokarski
I'm surprised that the FT publishes such one-sided articles. Italy's current public debt is 135% of GDP, not 127%. The BTP-OAT spread is a better reflection of France's issues than of ITA's success. Italy is facing enormous structural challenges.
www.ft.com/content/1a1f...
www.ft.com/content/1a1f...
Europe should learn from Italy
The country has shown investors what happens when political stability, fiscal credibility and industrial strengths are aligned
www.ft.com
November 7, 2025 at 12:12 PM
I'm surprised that the FT publishes such one-sided articles. Italy's current public debt is 135% of GDP, not 127%. The BTP-OAT spread is a better reflection of France's issues than of ITA's success. Italy is facing enormous structural challenges.
www.ft.com/content/1a1f...
www.ft.com/content/1a1f...
I'm surprised that the FT publishes such one-sided articles. Italy's current public debt is 135% of GDP, not 127%. The BTP-OAT spread is a better reflection of France's issues than of ITA's success. Italy is facing enormous structural challenges.
www.ft.com/content/1a1f...
www.ft.com/content/1a1f...
Europe should learn from Italy
The country has shown investors what happens when political stability, fiscal credibility and industrial strengths are aligned
www.ft.com
November 7, 2025 at 12:12 PM
I'm surprised that the FT publishes such one-sided articles. Italy's current public debt is 135% of GDP, not 127%. The BTP-OAT spread is a better reflection of France's issues than of ITA's success. Italy is facing enormous structural challenges.
www.ft.com/content/1a1f...
www.ft.com/content/1a1f...
Reposted by Paweł Tokarski
Quel est le point commun entre mon collègue français de la gauche et Jordan Bardella?
Les deux veulent qu'une banque centrale finance la dette française
Les deux veulent qu'une banque centrale finance la dette française
Bardella wants the ECB (read: Banque de France and other Eurosystem banks) to buy an unlimited amount of French debt.
Other eurozone countries will be delighted at the opportunity to co-finance one of the most generous pension systems in Europe.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
Other eurozone countries will be delighted at the opportunity to co-finance one of the most generous pension systems in Europe.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
Jordan Bardella starts to lay out his plans
The 30-year-old French populist who is preparing for power
www.economist.com
November 7, 2025 at 11:43 AM
Quel est le point commun entre mon collègue français de la gauche et Jordan Bardella?
Les deux veulent qu'une banque centrale finance la dette française
Les deux veulent qu'une banque centrale finance la dette française
Reposted by Paweł Tokarski
Bardella wants the ECB (read: Banque de France and other Eurosystem banks) to buy an unlimited amount of French debt.
Other eurozone countries will be delighted at the opportunity to co-finance one of the most generous pension systems in Europe.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
Other eurozone countries will be delighted at the opportunity to co-finance one of the most generous pension systems in Europe.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
Jordan Bardella starts to lay out his plans
The 30-year-old French populist who is preparing for power
www.economist.com
November 6, 2025 at 9:11 AM
Bardella wants the ECB (read: Banque de France and other Eurosystem banks) to buy an unlimited amount of French debt.
Other eurozone countries will be delighted at the opportunity to co-finance one of the most generous pension systems in Europe.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
Other eurozone countries will be delighted at the opportunity to co-finance one of the most generous pension systems in Europe.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
Bardella wants the ECB (read: Banque de France and other Eurosystem banks) to buy an unlimited amount of French debt.
Other eurozone countries will be delighted at the opportunity to co-finance one of the most generous pension systems in Europe.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
Other eurozone countries will be delighted at the opportunity to co-finance one of the most generous pension systems in Europe.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
Jordan Bardella starts to lay out his plans
The 30-year-old French populist who is preparing for power
www.economist.com
November 6, 2025 at 9:11 AM
Bardella wants the ECB (read: Banque de France and other Eurosystem banks) to buy an unlimited amount of French debt.
Other eurozone countries will be delighted at the opportunity to co-finance one of the most generous pension systems in Europe.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
Other eurozone countries will be delighted at the opportunity to co-finance one of the most generous pension systems in Europe.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
Handelsblatt on Europe and Germany's missed opportunity to attract investors following Trump's tariffs. Too slow pace of structural reforms and low investment in AI.
www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/ban...
www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/ban...
November 6, 2025 at 8:54 AM
Handelsblatt on Europe and Germany's missed opportunity to attract investors following Trump's tariffs. Too slow pace of structural reforms and low investment in AI.
www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/ban...
www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/ban...
Reposted by Paweł Tokarski
French economist Patrick Artus: budgetary adjustment in France must be dictated by the ECB, as it will not happen as a result of internal decisions in France.
November 5, 2025 at 5:17 PM
French economist Patrick Artus: budgetary adjustment in France must be dictated by the ECB, as it will not happen as a result of internal decisions in France.
French economist Patrick Artus: budgetary adjustment in France must be dictated by the ECB, as it will not happen as a result of internal decisions in France.
November 5, 2025 at 5:17 PM
French economist Patrick Artus: budgetary adjustment in France must be dictated by the ECB, as it will not happen as a result of internal decisions in France.
Reposted by Paweł Tokarski
'Germany should leave the euro.'
I've lost count of how many times I've seen this nonsense since 2009. It might be good for the US or China, but not for Germany or Europe.
It's either the euro or chaos.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-german...
I've lost count of how many times I've seen this nonsense since 2009. It might be good for the US or China, but not for Germany or Europe.
It's either the euro or chaos.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-german...
Why Germany needs to leave the Euro
The Euro perpetuates out-of-control fiscal policy that's making Europe weaker
robinjbrooks.substack.com
November 4, 2025 at 4:43 PM
'Germany should leave the euro.'
I've lost count of how many times I've seen this nonsense since 2009. It might be good for the US or China, but not for Germany or Europe.
It's either the euro or chaos.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-german...
I've lost count of how many times I've seen this nonsense since 2009. It might be good for the US or China, but not for Germany or Europe.
It's either the euro or chaos.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-german...
'Germany should leave the euro.'
I've lost count of how many times I've seen this nonsense since 2009. It might be good for the US or China, but not for Germany or Europe.
It's either the euro or chaos.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-german...
I've lost count of how many times I've seen this nonsense since 2009. It might be good for the US or China, but not for Germany or Europe.
It's either the euro or chaos.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-german...
Why Germany needs to leave the Euro
The Euro perpetuates out-of-control fiscal policy that's making Europe weaker
robinjbrooks.substack.com
November 4, 2025 at 4:43 PM
'Germany should leave the euro.'
I've lost count of how many times I've seen this nonsense since 2009. It might be good for the US or China, but not for Germany or Europe.
It's either the euro or chaos.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-german...
I've lost count of how many times I've seen this nonsense since 2009. It might be good for the US or China, but not for Germany or Europe.
It's either the euro or chaos.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-german...
Reposted by Paweł Tokarski
In France, the question is being asked again: if the Banque de France/Eurosystem could just "cancel" part of the debt.
They don't seem to realise that doing this would basically mean going back to the franc, and send Europe into chaos.
www.alternatives-economiques.fr/on-annuler-d...
They don't seem to realise that doing this would basically mean going back to the franc, and send Europe into chaos.
www.alternatives-economiques.fr/on-annuler-d...
Peut-on annuler la dette publique ?
[Huit questions sur la dette] L’annulation de la partie de la dette française détenue par la Banque centrale européenne divise les économistes. Sur sa faisabilité légale, et sur son efficacité pour as...
www.alternatives-economiques.fr
November 4, 2025 at 12:45 PM
In France, the question is being asked again: if the Banque de France/Eurosystem could just "cancel" part of the debt.
They don't seem to realise that doing this would basically mean going back to the franc, and send Europe into chaos.
www.alternatives-economiques.fr/on-annuler-d...
They don't seem to realise that doing this would basically mean going back to the franc, and send Europe into chaos.
www.alternatives-economiques.fr/on-annuler-d...
In France, the question is being asked again: if the Banque de France/Eurosystem could just "cancel" part of the debt.
They don't seem to realise that doing this would basically mean going back to the franc, and send Europe into chaos.
www.alternatives-economiques.fr/on-annuler-d...
They don't seem to realise that doing this would basically mean going back to the franc, and send Europe into chaos.
www.alternatives-economiques.fr/on-annuler-d...
Peut-on annuler la dette publique ?
[Huit questions sur la dette] L’annulation de la partie de la dette française détenue par la Banque centrale européenne divise les économistes. Sur sa faisabilité légale, et sur son efficacité pour as...
www.alternatives-economiques.fr
November 4, 2025 at 12:45 PM
In France, the question is being asked again: if the Banque de France/Eurosystem could just "cancel" part of the debt.
They don't seem to realise that doing this would basically mean going back to the franc, and send Europe into chaos.
www.alternatives-economiques.fr/on-annuler-d...
They don't seem to realise that doing this would basically mean going back to the franc, and send Europe into chaos.
www.alternatives-economiques.fr/on-annuler-d...
Reposted by Paweł Tokarski
A Polish court ruled that an attack on Russian-controlled energy infrastructure was a justified act during wartime.
Podejrzany o udział w wysadzeniu podmorskich gazociągów Nord Stream Ukrainiec nie zostanie przekazany Niemcom – orzekł w piątek Sąd Okręgowy w Warszawie.
WIĘCEJ ➡️ www.tvp.info/89517621/
WIĘCEJ ➡️ www.tvp.info/89517621/
October 17, 2025 at 1:31 PM
A Polish court ruled that an attack on Russian-controlled energy infrastructure was a justified act during wartime.
A Polish court ruled that an attack on Russian-controlled energy infrastructure was a justified act during wartime.
Podejrzany o udział w wysadzeniu podmorskich gazociągów Nord Stream Ukrainiec nie zostanie przekazany Niemcom – orzekł w piątek Sąd Okręgowy w Warszawie.
WIĘCEJ ➡️ www.tvp.info/89517621/
WIĘCEJ ➡️ www.tvp.info/89517621/
October 17, 2025 at 1:31 PM
A Polish court ruled that an attack on Russian-controlled energy infrastructure was a justified act during wartime.
Reposted by Paweł Tokarski
Spannende Möglichkeit für Studentinnen oder Studenten uns in der SWP zum Schwerpunkt "Neugestaltung der europäischen Sicherheitsordnung" zu unterstützen:
📢 Wir suchen eine studentische Hilfskraft (d/m/w) für den Forschungsschwerpunkt »Neugestaltung der europäischen Sicherheitsordnung«.
📆 Start: 05.01.2026
⏰ 10–20 h/Woche
📍Berlin (bis 40 % remote)
🗓️ Bewerbung bis 05.11.2025: bewerbungen@swp-berlin.org
👉 Details: www.swp-berlin.org/karriere/ste...
📆 Start: 05.01.2026
⏰ 10–20 h/Woche
📍Berlin (bis 40 % remote)
🗓️ Bewerbung bis 05.11.2025: bewerbungen@swp-berlin.org
👉 Details: www.swp-berlin.org/karriere/ste...
October 17, 2025 at 9:50 AM
Spannende Möglichkeit für Studentinnen oder Studenten uns in der SWP zum Schwerpunkt "Neugestaltung der europäischen Sicherheitsordnung" zu unterstützen:
Reposted by Paweł Tokarski
Déjà vu from Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) crisis in 2023?
Back then, a flash liquidity run.
Now, credit quality and profitability issues by U.S. regional banks.
Curious to see how this unfolds.
www.ft.com/content/e6cd...
Back then, a flash liquidity run.
Now, credit quality and profitability issues by U.S. regional banks.
Curious to see how this unfolds.
www.ft.com/content/e6cd...
Global stocks slide on US regional bank jitters
Vix ‘fear gauge’ leaps to highest level since April as US futures fall with European indices
www.ft.com
October 17, 2025 at 10:11 AM
Déjà vu from Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) crisis in 2023?
Back then, a flash liquidity run.
Now, credit quality and profitability issues by U.S. regional banks.
Curious to see how this unfolds.
www.ft.com/content/e6cd...
Back then, a flash liquidity run.
Now, credit quality and profitability issues by U.S. regional banks.
Curious to see how this unfolds.
www.ft.com/content/e6cd...