Nicolai von Ondarza
LightNews LightNews
nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza
@nvondarza.bsky.social
15K followers 1K following 3.4K posts

Political scientist with a passion for EU affairs, Geek with a passion for technology. Head of Europe Division at @SWP-Berlin.org. Associate Fellow @chathamhouse.bsky.social Europe Programme. All views are personal. Journey before Destination. .. more

Videos
Political science 80%
Economics 10%
Posts Replies Media Videos
Pinned
nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 25d
Who is really “running” the European Parliament right now?

On the margins of the geopolitical changes, the shifts in the EU are also accelerating. In my newest EU-Analytics, I dug into all final votes from December 2025 – and the shift of power to the centre-right & far right is accelerating:
EU Analytics December 2025 review
The change of guards at the European Parliament is picking up speed
open.substack.com

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 5h
This poll really shows how different security perceptions in the EU can be - where defence is the lowest priority in Ireland, with the threat from Russia still (marginally) below Israel/Gaza:

Reposted by Wolfgang Huber, Nicolai von Ondarza

table.media
Table.Briefings @table.media · 6h
🚀 Hinaus ins All: Welche deutsche Raketenbauer durchstarten wollen
🌌 Derzeit können nur Ariane 6 und Vega C Satelliten in eine Umlaufbahn bringen. Der Bedarf wird kräftig steigen. Auf diesen Markt setzen junge Firmen, die eigene Raketen entwickeln. buff.ly/gEB0W6Y

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

emollick.bsky.social
Ethan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social · 8h
Fun (if odd) to turn paintings into scenes I can walk around in using Genie 3 in one go: here are the works of Giorgio de Chirico, Munch, Turner, and the Bayeux Tapestry.

I can move freely around the scenes, and, yes, they are a little weird, but its real-time dynamic image creation by the AI.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

simongerman600.bsky.social
Simon Kuestenmacher @simongerman600.bsky.social · 9h
Eurozone unemployment has never been lower. That’s partially good news, partially a sign of aging societies not being able to replace retiring Baby Boomers.

Retirements > entrants. Youth cohorts are smaller - that explains falling youth unemployment figures. Migration helps, but not enough.

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d
Remember that in 2018, Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party were still part of the centre-right EPP and continued to be so until 2021:
szabolcspanyi.bsky.social Szabolcs Panyi @szabolcspanyi.bsky.social · 1d
🔎From the Epstein files: In 2018, Steve Bannon brags in a chat with an Epstein associate about advising European far-right leaders such as Viktor Orbán. Epstein's friend Terje Rød-Larsen says the same about Bannon.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

szabolcspanyi.bsky.social
Szabolcs Panyi @szabolcspanyi.bsky.social · 1d
🔎From the Epstein files: In 2018, Steve Bannon brags in a chat with an Epstein associate about advising European far-right leaders such as Viktor Orbán. Epstein's friend Terje Rød-Larsen says the same about Bannon.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

foreignpolicy.com
Foreign Policy @foreignpolicy.com · 1d
The trade pact may be getting all the attention, but the pair also inked a landmark defense agreement this week.
The Other India-EU Deal
The trade pact may be getting all the attention, but the pair also inked a landmark defense agreement.
foreignpolicy.com

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

adrianhiel.bsky.social
Adrian Hiel @adrianhiel.bsky.social · 1d
Worth pointing out though this isn't new. For decades foreign trade missions have often been dubbed 'team Canada' to mean multiple government departments or representatives from different sectors of the economy.

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d
Might be my personal bias, but the call for a 'Team Canada' approach, linked to external trade agreements and the aim for reducing internal trade barriers, sounds eerily similar tovon der Leyen's rhetoric of 'Team Europe', the EU's extension of free trade agreements and completing the single market.
mark-carney.bsky.social Mark Carney @mark-carney.bsky.social · 1d
To unlock the full potential of our new trade agreements, we need a Team Canada approach.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

mark-carney.bsky.social
Mark Carney @mark-carney.bsky.social · 1d
To unlock the full potential of our new trade agreements, we need a Team Canada approach.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

gordondarroch.bsky.social
Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 2d
Very brief highlights of new Dutch government plans:
Defence and security – raise annual budget to €19bn, partly though “freedom contribution“ (extra income tax) worth €3.5bn a year.
Armed forces to grow to 122,000.
Support Ukraine to join EU and Nato.
Create European “Five Eyes” spy network.

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 2d
I guess that is part of the meme-fication of diplomacy. Memes don't have to be correct, trolling often creates even more reactions if not correct. And so the memes using pinguins over the Artics continue...

Reposted by Joanna Bryson, Nicolai von Ondarza

stollmeyer.bsky.social
Alice Stollmeyer @stollmeyer.bsky.social · 2d
BREAKING: Netherlands to ban 'addictive, polarising & anti-democratic algorithms'

Govt wants 'enforceable EU minimum age of 15 for social media with privacy-friendly age verification as long as social media are not sufficiently secure.'

#coalitieakkoord

www.kabinetsformatie2025.nl/documenten/2...

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 2d
I seem to have missed the memo about European diplomatic services embracing the meme-fication of international diplomacy.

Here we have an official French Foreign Policy account reposting their German meme-counterparts, evoking social media mutual defence (from both EU and NATO).

Brave new world.
X post from 'French Response' celebrating German foreign ministers 'For Sure' video and referring to Art 42.7 EU Treaty / Art. 5 NATO treaty, the two mutual defence clauses.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

bencrum.nl
Ben Crum @bencrum.nl · 2d
Good thread by @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social on 'Coalitions of the Willing' in the EU 👇
I very much agree on principle

But the exception is the domain of defence

If the EU is to take on a more robust military role - esp. re Ukraine - then a Coalition of the Willing is key to moving things forward
lucasguttenberg.bsky.social Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · 2d
“Coalitions of the willing” are back in vogue. Internationally, that makes sense. But in the EU context, I don’t buy the hype. In fact, it leads to the wrong conclusions and risks weakening the one institutional framework that actually gives Europe collective power in a world without rules.

Thread:

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

pippacrerar.bsky.social
Pippa Crerar @pippacrerar.bsky.social · 2d
BREAKING: China has immediately lifted sanctions imposed on serving British MPs and peers in significant sign of warming relations after Keir Starmer travelled to Beijing for talks with Xi Jinping.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

esa.int
European Space Agency @esa.int · 2d
We’re proud to stand shoulder to shoulder with our international partners in Artemis. Our European Service Module is at the heart of NASA’s Orion spacecraft. Together, we're extending humankind’s presence in space and demonstrating that multilateral and inclusive cooperation is vital for our future.
TIME’s new cover: Artemis II is poised for the first lunar mission since 1972

Reposted by Christian Odendahl, Ben Crum, Nicolai von Ondarza

lucasguttenberg.bsky.social
Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · 2d
“Coalitions of the willing” are back in vogue. Internationally, that makes sense. But in the EU context, I don’t buy the hype. In fact, it leads to the wrong conclusions and risks weakening the one institutional framework that actually gives Europe collective power in a world without rules.

Thread:

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

jreland.bsky.social
Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 2d
Six years after Brexit, how has the UK taken advantage of the regulatory freedoms which Brexit afforded it?

I've got a new paper out looking into that question for the French High Commission for Strategy and Planning

www.strategie-plan.gouv.fr/en/publicati...
Taking back control? How has the UK diverged from the EU since Brexit? | Haut-commissariat à la stratégie et au plan
“Le Plan has always been a forum. It publishes its own research but also channels stimulating ideas from outside, by authors who are free to defend their viewpoint. That is the purpose of Le Plan’s Co...
www.strategie-plan.gouv.fr

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

ronpatz.bsky.social
Ronny Patz @ronpatz.bsky.social · 2d
#UN Secretary-General #AntonioGuterres has written a letter to member states warning of the UN's financial collapes unless rules that lead to a "kafkaesque cycle" of underspending are not changed quickly.

My commentary including the full letter is on LinkedIn:
www.linkedin.com/posts/ronny-...
#un #secretarygeneral #germany #financeministry #usa #g77 #china #russia #un80 #unbudget | Ronny Patz
#UN #SecretaryGeneral Guterres has written a letter to all UN member states signalling "the very real prospect of the financial collapse of our Organization." I have written about this situation mult...
www.linkedin.com

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 2d
European governments are trying to step up their meme. This was posted by German foreign minister @aussenminister.diplo.de on Tiktok and Instagram.

Though not sure mixing E3 (with Keir Starmer) and lots of EU symbolism was entirely thought through.

For sure 🇪🇺

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

maxbergmann.bsky.social
Max Bergmann @maxbergmann.bsky.social · 2d
This is huge. And my guess is that this doesn't lead to a two speed Europe but a mass bandwagon effect. If the Six agree others will almost all follow.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

andreasrinke.bsky.social
Andreas Rinke @andreasrinke.bsky.social · 2d
2025 war das Jahr des Schocks, 2026 wird das Jahr der Antworten auf den US-Präsidenten sein - die Welt organisiert sich um die USA herum @reuters-Analyse
MSN
www.msn.com

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 2d
Note that von der Leyen uses the same language for Ukraine and the countries of th Western Balkans - being part of the European family. [I cannot recall her using that language in regards to the UK, though]
vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu Ursula von der Leyen @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu · 2d
In these times of geopolitical uncertainty, it is good to have Norway as part of our European family.

I had an excellent exchange with the Norwegian Parliament’s Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and Defence.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu
Ursula von der Leyen @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu · 2d
In these times of geopolitical uncertainty, it is good to have Norway as part of our European family.

I had an excellent exchange with the Norwegian Parliament’s Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and Defence.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social
Jorge Liboreiro @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social · 2d
Now it's really official: the European Union has agreed to designate Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organisation.

Decision taken by the 27 member states.
EU agrees to designate Iran's Revolutionary Guard as terrorist group
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran will be added to the European Union's terrorism blacklist, foreign affairs ministers decided on Thursday. #EuropeNews
www.euronews.com

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

tobischolz.bsky.social
Tobias Scholz @tobischolz.bsky.social · 3d
Great to talk about the international political consequences of the India-EU FTA with FRANCE 24.
www.france24.com/en/geopoliti...
'Geopolitical momentum': Is EU-India deal a challenge to great powers wielding 'imperialist policy'?
www.france24.com

Reposted by Steve Peers

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 3d
Compare this to how careful the EU was during the Brexit negotiations to not do anything to encourage Scottish separatism, outside of a few fringe voices. And it would have rightly been seen as heavy outside intervention, if EU leaders had made offers to the Scottish independence movement.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

bjoernm.bsky.social
Björn Müller @bjoernm.bsky.social · 3d
Hybrid US warfare against it’s neighbour evolving…

Trump officials met group pushing Alberta independence from Canada

giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Trump officials met group pushing Alberta independence from Canada
Separatists from oil-rich province try to capitalise on friction between White House and Mark Carney
giftarticle.ft.com

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen, Nicolai von Ondarza

sandertordoir.bsky.social
Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 3d
One of those announcements dissapearing in all the news thunder.

The commitment to accelerate wind energy in the North Sea is a great move for Europe - creating more energy independence which can be built with EU and UK kit.

It’s a sweet spot.

www.bundeswirtschaftsministerium.de/Redaktion/EN...
www.bundeswirtschaftsministerium.de