Nicolai von Ondarza
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nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza
@nvondarza.bsky.social
14K followers 1K following 3.1K posts

Political scientist with a passion for EU affairs, Geek with a passion for technology. Head of Europe Division at @SWP-Berlin.org. Associate Fellow @chathamhouse.bsky.social Europe Programme. All views are personal. Journey before Destination. .. more

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nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · Dec 5
November was a month of high tension in the European Parliament.

I went through 51 final votes and 10 public Council votes for my latest EU-Analytics review – and found three different working majorities at play:
EU Analytics November 2025 review
The breakdown of the Cordon Sanitaire amid three different majorities
substack.com

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

mijrahman.bsky.social
Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 4h
🇩🇰 goal of keeping 🇬🇱 out of the headlines & avoiding megaphone diplomacy is over. They're leaning in - rightly

🇩🇰 PM: “I believe one should take the 🇺🇸 president seriously when he says he wants 🇬🇱. But if the US chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, then everything stops, including NATO.”

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 5h
This is something AI is incredibly useful at - a quick overview of Trump/US statements on Greenland in the past year.

Rather than the individual shock dynamic, the overview shows a pattern and an increasing aggressiveness in the demands towards territorial annexation of Greenland:

Reposted by Steve Peers, Andrew Scott

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 9h
Martin Fuchs did an interesting analysis on German ministries accounts on X in December, and their remaining reach was minimal, despite high follower accounts (cc @stevepeers.bsky.social)
nvondarza.bsky.social Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 25d
On this, Martin Fuchs made an interesting analysis earlier this week for German ministries. Two have already left X, but for the rest, currently roughly 1.000 followers translated into 10 views, e.g. 1000 view from accounts with 104.000 followers. Time to go.

Reposted by Markus W. Gehring

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 11h
"International law is no longer the guiding principle" is quite a statement.

Saying the quiet part out loud, and a full break with even the pretense of sharing the basic principles of EU foreign policy.
eublogo.bsky.social Katalin Halmai @eublogo.bsky.social · 11h
Regarding the Trump administration's actions in Venezuela, Orbán said that it is good for Hungary because it will lead to lower oil prices and the collapse of a narco-state. The international law is no longer the guiding principle, he added.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

eublogo.bsky.social
Katalin Halmai @eublogo.bsky.social · 11h
Regarding the Trump administration's actions in Venezuela, Orbán said that it is good for Hungary because it will lead to lower oil prices and the collapse of a narco-state. The international law is no longer the guiding principle, he added.

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 12h
I would push back a little against zero efforts - there were definitely some real initiatives - but I think it is now fair and necessary to argue that the strategy of sycophancy to Trump is actively hindering European leaders from going more forcefully for an independent and strong Europe.
sophieintveld.bsky.social Sophie in't Veld @sophieintveld.bsky.social · 12h
Europe sucking up to Trump as a strategy to buy time might be defendable. But only if that time is being used to make Europe independent and strong. But in the past twelve months there have been exactly zero efforts for a stronger, more integrated Europe. So the sucking up is a waste of time.

Reposted by Martin Drenthen, Nicolai von Ondarza

sophieintveld.bsky.social
Sophie in't Veld @sophieintveld.bsky.social · 12h
Europe sucking up to Trump as a strategy to buy time might be defendable. But only if that time is being used to make Europe independent and strong. But in the past twelve months there have been exactly zero efforts for a stronger, more integrated Europe. So the sucking up is a waste of time.

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 12h
Though to be fair, if the US advances plans to annex Greenland, the ability of other Europeans to hold up the fiction of an alliance with the US will also hit a wall.
mijrahman.bsky.social Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 12h
The ability of the U.K. to play both sides - reset with the EU while seeking proximity to Trump - is going to hit a wall in 2026 if the US advances its plan to annex Greenland (which it will)

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

tokarski.bsky.social
Paweł Tokarski @tokarski.bsky.social · 12h
#Eurozone macht Fortschritte: Bulgarien tritt bei, Griechenland zahlt alte Schulden vorzeitig. Doch geopolitische Ohnmacht und fehlende strategische Debatte führen zu einem driftenden Kurs.
Mehr dazu: www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
Die Eurozone: Fortschritte mit Fragezeichen
Bulgarien tritt dem Euro bei und Griechenland zahlt seine Schulden vorzeitig zurück. Dennoch fehlt der Eurozone ein klarer strategischer Kurs....
www.swp-berlin.org

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

mijrahman.bsky.social
Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 12h
The ability of the U.K. to play both sides - reset with the EU while seeking proximity to Trump - is going to hit a wall in 2026 if the US advances its plan to annex Greenland (which it will)

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

alexpartridge87.bsky.social
Alex Partridge @alexpartridge87.bsky.social · 13h
BBC pol ed Chris Mason: the Danes are saying very clearly to President Trump hands off Greenland, will you say the same?

Starmer: Yes. Greenland and the Kingdom of Denmark must decide the future of Greenland, and only Greenland and the Kingdom of Denmark.

Reposted by Christian Odendahl, Nicolai von Ondarza

tokarski.bsky.social
Paweł Tokarski @tokarski.bsky.social · 14h
New year, new challenges for the eurozone: Bulgaria joins, the digital euro vote looms, pressure on public finances, political turmoil in France, and Germany’s economic model faltering.

#Eurozone #DigitalEuro #Economy

www.ft.com/content/99a7...
‘Down to the wire’: ECB’s digital euro project faces decisive vote in 2026
Central bank aims to introduce the tokens in 2029 but parties in the European parliament are divided
www.ft.com

Reposted by Johan P. Olsen, Ben Tonra, Nicolai von Ondarza , and 2 more

rikefranke.bsky.social
Ulrike Franke @rikefranke.bsky.social · 14h
The US has loads of military installations in Europe. It likes to pretend this is for Europe’s protection, but this is only partly true. Ramstein, as mentioned here by the Greens’FP expert is a good example. If the US decides to attack Greenland, throwing out US mil installations should be discussed
sarananni.bsky.social Sara Nanni @sarananni.bsky.social · 1d
Deutschland muss jetzt schnell sagen, welchen Preis die USA zahlen werden, sollten sie wirklich versuchen Grönland einzunehmen.

(Selbstverständlich hinter den Kulissen.)

Konsequenzen müssen angedroht werden. Alles muss auf den Tisch. Ramstein gehört ganz oben auf den Stapel.

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 15h
Returning to the office in Germany in 2026 apparently also still means an online education module on data protection which includes rules for sending a confidential fax...

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 16h
What is the difference between the EU and Trump's America?

In 1985, Greenland exited the then EC after a referendum, and today is only associated as an autonomous part of Denmark.

In 2026, Trump threatens to take Greenland by force, just because he thinks the US 'needs' it for national security.
acyn.bsky.social Acyn @acyn.bsky.social · 22h
Trump: We need Greenland. Right now, Greenland is covered with Russian and Chinese ships.

Reporter: What would the justification be for a claim to Greenland?

Trump: The EU needs us to have it.

Reposted by Will Jennings, Nicolai von Ondarza

zatapatique.bsky.social
zatapatique @zatapatique.bsky.social · 16h
"Vassal" talk is a bit much, but those Starmer (and other EU leaders tbf) statements read like all these people still believe, if we can just hold our breath for three more years, this nightmare will be over and we'll be back to singing Atlantic Kumbaya

Reposted by Rasmus K. Storm

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 17h
Returning to the office in Europe in 2026 means wondering whether our former biggest ally will annex part of an EU/NATO country next, and what the Europeans can (and have the will) to do about it.

Reposted by Andrew Scott, François Heisbourg, Nicolai von Ondarza

reuters.com
Reuters @reuters.com · 18h
France reiterates its support of Denmark and Greenland sovereignty after renewed Trump threats reut.rs/3Nt6F77
France reiterates its support of Denmark and Greenland sovereignty after renewed Trump threats
France reiterated on Monday its support of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Denmark and Greenland following renewed threats by U.S. President Donald Trump to take over Greenland.
reut.rs

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

gesineweber.bsky.social
Gesine Weber @gesineweber.bsky.social · 18h
What happens when the formerly benign hegemon turns hostile? Other powers have options - but not all realist options are realistic.

My new piece for Geopolitical Europe:

geopoliticaleurope.substack.com/p/hegemonic-...
Hegemonic hostility: Europe's realist(ic) options
5 January 2026
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com

Reposted by Ken Caldeira, Olivier Mannoni, Nicolai von Ondarza

acyn.bsky.social
Acyn @acyn.bsky.social · 22h
Trump: We need Greenland. Right now, Greenland is covered with Russian and Chinese ships.

Reporter: What would the justification be for a claim to Greenland?

Trump: The EU needs us to have it.

Reposted by Ben Tonra, Nicolai von Ondarza, Francesco Nicoli

sarananni.bsky.social
Sara Nanni @sarananni.bsky.social · 1d
Deutschland muss jetzt schnell sagen, welchen Preis die USA zahlen werden, sollten sie wirklich versuchen Grönland einzunehmen.

(Selbstverständlich hinter den Kulissen.)

Konsequenzen müssen angedroht werden. Alles muss auf den Tisch. Ramstein gehört ganz oben auf den Stapel.

Reposted by Kori Schake, Martin McKee, Elizabeth Saunders , and 20 more

tbenner.bsky.social
Thorsten Benner @tbenner.bsky.social · 1d
It's wild that the PM of a NATO member feels compelled to put out a statement like this vis-à-vis the US government.

Reposted by Frank Kühn, Nicolai von Ondarza

jakluge.de
Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 1d
Whenever Trump does something crazy, people try to rationalize it. Now, they're saying it was Venezuela's "heavy, sour crude" that made him kidnap Maduro. I think the truth is much scarier and less strategic: He simply enjoys the feeling of power and humiliating his opponents.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

hhesterm.bsky.social
Holger Hestermeyer @hhesterm.bsky.social · 1d
It is time for EU leaders to establish a clear (if confidential) strategy and red lines for a Trump takeover of Greenland against the will of Greenland and Denmark. /1 www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
US attack on Venezuela raises fears of future Greenland takeover
Danish ambassador posts ‘friendly reminder’ about defence ties after provocative Maga post over territory
www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Christian Odendahl, Nicolai von Ondarza

shashj.bsky.social
Shashank Joshi @shashj.bsky.social · 2d
I wrote on the Caracas raid: an unusually large, well planned & successful operation, even if decapitation isn't the same as regime change. Also an opportunity for special forces to show their utility to Trump foreign policy in the post-GWOT age.
www.economist.com/the-americas...
How the Pentagon snatched Nicolás Maduro
Operation Absolute Resolve was a textbook success
www.economist.com

Reposted by Edgar Morgenroth, Beatriz Gallardo Paúls

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 2d
There is a difference between considering the former regime of Maduro as illegitimate and celebrating the attack of a foreign power without even the attempt of justification under international law as 'liberation'.
president.europarl.europa.eu Roberta Metsola @president.europarl.europa.eu · 2d
Venezuela será libre.

People in Venezuela deserve to live free after years of oppression.

As the European Parliament has consistently affirmed, we do not consider Nicolás Maduro to be the legitimate, elected leader of Venezuela.

Reposted by Frédéric Mérand, Ben Tonra, Ben Crum , and 4 more

mijrahman.bsky.social
Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 2d
European weakness on full display by these horribly contorted responses from Merz, Macron and Starmer - neither condoning nor condemning US actions in Venezuela

Such weakness only risks making the Europeans more vulnerable (ie Greenland)

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 2d
Not the most important thing today, but given the fact that recent resolutions in the EU Parliament on Venezuela were carried by the EPP with all the far-right groups - now literally called the Venezuela majority - how the EU Parliament will take a position on Trump's Venezuela occupation.

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 2d
Also a big test for EU-Europeans - who were united in their approach to Russia on Ukraine, but always three way split on Israel/Gaza after October 7th.
lewisgoodall.com Lewis Goodall @lewisgoodall.com · 2d
There’s going to be a motion of censure at the UN and Starmer is going to have a decision to make.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

lewisgoodall.com
Lewis Goodall @lewisgoodall.com · 2d
Great powers have always, to some extent, written the rules for themselves. But this should be a reminder that for all we might lament the “rules based order”, it’s largely gone, if it ever existed. Hard power is the only thing which matters now. Europe needs to wake up to the new realities.