Nicolai von Ondarza

@nvondarza.bsky.social

13K followers 980 following 2.8K posts

Political scientist with a passion for EU affairs, Geek with a passion for technology. Head of Europe Division at @SWP-Berlin.org. Associate Fellow @chathamhouse.bsky.social Europe Programme. All views are personal. Journey before Destination. .. more

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Political science 80%

Economics 10%

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · Sep 22

As @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu highlighted, @beckermax.bsky.social, @johannaflach.bsky.social and I wanted to dig deeper into how far-right parties are already shaping EU politics.

Here is our analysis for @swp-berlin.org:

Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · Sep 22

Before #EP2024, I predicted the far right to gain power in EU institutions "not through sweeping victory, but creeping normalisation":
fiia.fi/en/publicati...

Now, @beckermax.bsky.social et al. have analysed the "creeping integration of far-right parties in Europe".

I wish I'd been more wrong.

The Creeping Integration of Far-right Parties in Europe

Where Far-right Parties Are Integrated into the EU System and Where They Are Not

www.swp-berlin.org

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Simon Kuestenmacher @simongerman600.bsky.social · 24m

That chart is well worth studying. Share of daily transactions taking place in cash around the world. As an Australian, I’m very much used to cashless everything by now. I’m still totally against going fully cashless.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Copernicus ECMWF @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social · 14h

Read our summary: climate.copernicus.eu/third-warmes...

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 15h

Fair play to Wales... if you were born in Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychwyrndrobwllllantysiliogogogoch, you'd not only be from the longest named place in Europe, but also one few people outside Wales have a chance of pronouncing.

Simon Kuestenmacher @simongerman600.bsky.social · 15h

Calm down Wales, calm down… Map shows the longest place names in Europe. HT @Maps_interlude

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Simon Kuestenmacher @simongerman600.bsky.social · 15h

Calm down Wales, calm down… Map shows the longest place names in Europe. HT @Maps_interlude

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 17h

"Just in the past 12 months, the group held seven meetings with members of the European Parliament, compared to just one in the five years prior, according to Parliament records."

These include MEPs from far-right parties from Germany, Hungary, Czechia, Spain and France.

POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 17h

The conservative think tank behind Donald Trump’s Project 2025 roadmap is looking for new friends across the Atlantic.

On the agenda: pro-natalism, freedom of expression, opposing trans rights and fighting Chinese influence.

🔗 www.politico.eu/article/the-...

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 17h

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Ben H. Ansell, Steve Peers , and 8 more Jonathan Portes, Ben H. Ansell, Steve Peers, Tim Bale, Paul Davies, Peter Holmes, Ben Rosamond, Mark Robinson, Nicolai von Ondarza, Judith Jesch, Gerry Hassan

Robert Shrimsley @robertshrimsley.bsky.social · 17h

The fact that the BBC has made serious culpable errors does not negate the point that there is a real and concerted right-wing media campaign to destroy it. Both points can be true at the same time and the campaign would not end even if the errors did.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Paweł Tokarski @tokarski.bsky.social · 20h

Eurozone countries are set to hit record borrowing numbers in 2026, with France at the top of the list.

www.lesechos.fr/finance-marc...

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Will Jennings, Scott L. Greer , and 6 more Jonathan Portes, Will Jennings, Scott L. Greer, Steve Peers, Simon Wren‐Lewis, Laurens Swinkels, Michael Morris, Nicolai von Ondarza, José Pina-Sánchez

David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 21h

Headline from a serious and long working paper on the economic impact of Brexit. Possible that this has been feeding into OBR and HMT discussions?

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 3d

I know I am the unusual European tech nerd, but most of these proposals - getting rid of the useless cookie banners, making data sharing more easy while still retaining some protection - sound like positive steps to me as a European consumer.

Ingo Dachwitz @roofjoke.netzpolitik.org · 3d

Gestern habe ich noch über Gerüchte geschrieben, heute veröffentlichen wir die Dokumente, die belegen: Die EU-Kommission plant einen Frontalangriff auf den Datenschutz.

Mit @daniel.netzpolitik.org

netzpolitik.org/2025/digital...

„Digitaler Omnibus“: EU-Kommission will Datenschutzgrundverordnung und KI-Regulierung schleifen

In weniger als zwei Wochen will die EU-Kommission einen umfassenden Gesetzesvorschlag präsentieren. Der

netzpolitik.org

Reposted by Manuel Puppis, Nicolai von Ondarza

Ingo Dachwitz @roofjoke.netzpolitik.org · 3d

„Digitaler Omnibus“: EU-Kommission will Datenschutzgrundverordnung und KI-Regulierung schleifen

In weniger als zwei Wochen will die EU-Kommission einen umfassenden Gesetzesvorschlag präsentieren. Der

netzpolitik.org

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 3d

Two very telling graphs on the effects of social media on the public conversation - one from @skynewsrss.bsky.social showing how X is amplifying right-wing politics in the UK, one from Germany showing how TikTok is enhancing far-right _and_ far-left content.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 3d

Headline is a bit misleading - Ukraine has signed an enhanced partnership with the JEF, but will not become a member. Though the partnership will be extensive, and includes also "lessons from the battlefield" of Ukraine to JEF countries (UK, Nordics)

See more here:

Reposted by Christian Odendahl, Nicolai von Ondarza

Jonathan Rosenthal @journalistjon.bsky.social · 3d

For this week's issue of @economist.com I got to think hard about something I've not had to think about for more than 20 years: the world of dating and singles. What I found shocked me. Rates of singlehood (singledom) have been rising for decades, but have suddenly accelerated in recent years. 1/

Reposted by Brady T. West, Brendan Nyhan, Jacob Montgomery , and 6 more Brady T. West, Brendan Nyhan, Jacob Montgomery, Erika Franklin Fowler, Christopher Barrie, Aaron Shaw, Aurélien Mondon, Dan MacLean, Nicolai von Ondarza

Petter Törnberg @pettertornberg.com · 3d

LLMs are now widely used in social science as stand-ins for humans—assuming they can produce realistic, human-like text

But... can they? We don’t actually know.

In our new study, we develop a Computational Turing Test.

And our findings are striking:
LLMs may be far less human-like than we think.🧵

Computational Turing Test Reveals Systematic Differences Between Human and AI Language

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in the social sciences to simulate human behavior, based on the assumption that they can generate realistic, human-like text. Yet this assumption rem...

arxiv.org

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen, Nicolai von Ondarza

Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 3d

Russian oil and gas revenues in October 2025 were 888.6 billion rubles ($10.9 billion), or 27% below October 2024.

Reposted by Steve Peers, Holger Nehring, Nicolai von Ondarza

Alexander Clarkson @aphclarkson.bsky.social · 3d

The EU makes many mistakes and should show far more flexibility towards North and West African states in trading relations.

That is a separate matter from a UK government that talks a Europe-friendly game yet still manages to burn goodwill with partners in the EU over minor sums

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 4d

Movie trailers are the much bigger offenders in this regard, but I never understand who thinks it is a good idea to spoil 80% of the story in such previews.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 4d

Indeed. And in many ways Connolly is the anti-establishment, populist candidate, just not from the far-right side.

Reposted by Will Lowe, Nicolai von Ondarza

Foreign Policy @foreignpolicy.com · 4d

Anti-war candidate Catherine Connolly’s victory is the country’s latest rebuke to the global right-wing populist wave.

Ireland’s Next President Will Assume the Progressive Mantle

Anti-war candidate Catherine Connolly’s victory is the country’s latest rebuke to the global right-wing populist wave.

foreignpolicy.com

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Simon Usherwood @simonusherwood.bsky.social · 4d

An update of progress on EU-UK negotiations of the Strategic Partnership/Common Understanding agenda from May's summit

tl;dr barring SAFE, not much to see

PDF: bit.ly/UshGraphic141

Reposted by Christian Odendahl, Mark Robinson, Nicolai von Ondarza

Paweł Tokarski @tokarski.bsky.social · 4d

Bardella wants the ECB (read: Banque de France and other Eurosystem banks) to buy an unlimited amount of French debt.

Other eurozone countries will be delighted at the opportunity to co-finance one of the most generous pension systems in Europe.

www.economist.com/europe/2025/...

Jordan Bardella starts to lay out his plans

The 30-year-old French populist who is preparing for power

www.economist.com

Reposted by Kori Schake

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 5d

Fascinating paper from IFRI, and the framing itself is a sign of the times - a Europe-Russia power balance.

The intro sets the scene in stark words: "European countries can no longer avoid the “Russian Question” as Russia has chosen war."

Ifri - Institut français des relations internationales @ifri.bsky.social · 5d

🇪🇺🇷🇺 #Europe - #Russia: Political Systems and Societal Resilience.

🔎 Read Ifri's new collective Study: "Europe-Russia: Balance of Power Review". www.ifri.org/en/studies/e...

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Susanne Baumann @germanambuk.bsky.social · 5d

A 🇩🇪🇬🇧 Business Forum will facilitate dialogue between our governments and businesses from next year – a direct result of the #KensingtonTreaty. Good to speak about the close ties between our economies with the German-British Chamber of Industry & Commerce and members.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Ifri - Institut français des relations internationales @ifri.bsky.social · 5d

🇪🇺🇷🇺 #Europe - #Russia: Political Systems and Societal Resilience.

🔎 Read Ifri's new collective Study: "Europe-Russia: Balance of Power Review". www.ifri.org/en/studies/e...

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 5d

Politico wanting to drive up the drama might be an aspect, but I have seen other Brussels based media using similiar framing

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 5d

A reflection of the (party) politicisation of the EU - in previous budget fights, when the Parliament pushed against the Commission and/or Council, it was seen as an inter-instititional fight.

Now, @politico.eu portrays it as "EPP vs EPP", "centre-right civil war", focusing squarely on the parties.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

ESA Space Transport @transport.esa.int · 6d

Liftoff for Ariane 6 on flight #VA265 carrying the @CopernicusEU Sentinel-1D satellite to space.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Martina Winkler @martinawinkle14.bsky.social · 6d

Babišs Erklärung: was uns verbindet, war der Wunsch, die bisherige Regierung zu stürzen. Für den Rest werden wir uns einigen. Enthusiasmus pur. 4

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

OSchwarzUDE @oschwarzude.bsky.social · 6d

Der Sammelband zur #EP2024 ist jetzt auch in deutscher Sprache erschienen. Mein Beitrag analysiert mithilfe der FPS-Methode, wie sich die Kräfteverhältnisse im Europäischen Parlament in einer vollständig erweiterten EU verändern könnten. 👉 doi.org/10.1007/978-... #EUEnlargement #EUErweiterung

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