Sander Tordoir
@sandertordoir.bsky.social
Chief economist @ Centre for European Reform. Eurozone macroeconomic policies | Role of 🇩🇪 🇳🇱 in EU. Formerly @ECB, @IMF, @Worldbank.
Pinned
Sander Tordoir
@sandertordoir.bsky.social
· Nov 18
Here is my starter pack on economics, trade and markets. Like others, my selection criterion was simple: these are minds I always learn from.
I'm sure I've missed many great accounts (still looking for some of my own friends). So please do suggest any additional names.
go.bsky.app/R2NdrtU
I'm sure I've missed many great accounts (still looking for some of my own friends). So please do suggest any additional names.
go.bsky.app/R2NdrtU
Of course the crown jewel of gloriously bad ideas is to leave the euro now.
Crippling German exporters even more with a surging new D-Mark just is what the doctor ordered.
Crippling German exporters even more with a surging new D-Mark just is what the doctor ordered.
Oh I forgot: I'm sure the bureaucracy is to blame. That must be the golden ticket out of the misery, those stifling bureaucrats.
Germany gets hit by a geopolitically-induced energy shock (Russia), demand shock (China) and fiscal shock (defence cost from US NATO quasi-abandonment).
Then blasts copious amounts of political capital on a fight over pension reform.
Aha. Pension reform makes sense but forest and trees y'all.
Then blasts copious amounts of political capital on a fight over pension reform.
Aha. Pension reform makes sense but forest and trees y'all.
November 17, 2025 at 10:36 PM
Of course the crown jewel of gloriously bad ideas is to leave the euro now.
Crippling German exporters even more with a surging new D-Mark just is what the doctor ordered.
Crippling German exporters even more with a surging new D-Mark just is what the doctor ordered.
Oh I forgot: I'm sure the bureaucracy is to blame. That must be the golden ticket out of the misery, those stifling bureaucrats.
Germany gets hit by a geopolitically-induced energy shock (Russia), demand shock (China) and fiscal shock (defence cost from US NATO quasi-abandonment).
Then blasts copious amounts of political capital on a fight over pension reform.
Aha. Pension reform makes sense but forest and trees y'all.
Then blasts copious amounts of political capital on a fight over pension reform.
Aha. Pension reform makes sense but forest and trees y'all.
November 17, 2025 at 10:34 PM
Oh I forgot: I'm sure the bureaucracy is to blame. That must be the golden ticket out of the misery, those stifling bureaucrats.
Germany gets hit by a geopolitically-induced energy shock (Russia), demand shock (China) and fiscal shock (defence cost from US NATO quasi-abandonment).
Then blasts copious amounts of political capital on a fight over pension reform.
Aha. Pension reform makes sense but forest and trees y'all.
Then blasts copious amounts of political capital on a fight over pension reform.
Aha. Pension reform makes sense but forest and trees y'all.
November 17, 2025 at 10:33 PM
Germany gets hit by a geopolitically-induced energy shock (Russia), demand shock (China) and fiscal shock (defence cost from US NATO quasi-abandonment).
Then blasts copious amounts of political capital on a fight over pension reform.
Aha. Pension reform makes sense but forest and trees y'all.
Then blasts copious amounts of political capital on a fight over pension reform.
Aha. Pension reform makes sense but forest and trees y'all.
Should give serious pause to those who want euro or EU exits.
But of course most of them don't look at research in the first place.
@pgkroegerbb.bsky.social
But of course most of them don't look at research in the first place.
@pgkroegerbb.bsky.social
From the great new NBER paper by Bloom et al on the cost of Brexit.
It ain't pretty - they estimate UK GDP is down between 6-8%. Consistent with the doppelgang model of @johnspringford.bsky.social for CER.
A lot of 'free' GDP available availabe for Labour if it had the courage to reset properly.
It ain't pretty - they estimate UK GDP is down between 6-8%. Consistent with the doppelgang model of @johnspringford.bsky.social for CER.
A lot of 'free' GDP available availabe for Labour if it had the courage to reset properly.
November 17, 2025 at 10:06 PM
Should give serious pause to those who want euro or EU exits.
But of course most of them don't look at research in the first place.
@pgkroegerbb.bsky.social
But of course most of them don't look at research in the first place.
@pgkroegerbb.bsky.social
From the great new NBER paper by Bloom et al on the cost of Brexit.
It ain't pretty - they estimate UK GDP is down between 6-8%. Consistent with the doppelgang model of @johnspringford.bsky.social for CER.
A lot of 'free' GDP available availabe for Labour if it had the courage to reset properly.
It ain't pretty - they estimate UK GDP is down between 6-8%. Consistent with the doppelgang model of @johnspringford.bsky.social for CER.
A lot of 'free' GDP available availabe for Labour if it had the courage to reset properly.
November 17, 2025 at 9:57 PM
From the great new NBER paper by Bloom et al on the cost of Brexit.
It ain't pretty - they estimate UK GDP is down between 6-8%. Consistent with the doppelgang model of @johnspringford.bsky.social for CER.
A lot of 'free' GDP available availabe for Labour if it had the courage to reset properly.
It ain't pretty - they estimate UK GDP is down between 6-8%. Consistent with the doppelgang model of @johnspringford.bsky.social for CER.
A lot of 'free' GDP available availabe for Labour if it had the courage to reset properly.
Germany should obviously immediately hike VAT rates, crush the economy, and catch up with Spain's deficit and catch down to its GDP-per-capita.
www.ft.com/content/6b8d...
www.ft.com/content/6b8d...
Spain’s deficit to fall below Germany’s for the first time in two decades
Spanish fiscal position aided by political paralysis
www.ft.com
November 17, 2025 at 11:26 AM
Germany should obviously immediately hike VAT rates, crush the economy, and catch up with Spain's deficit and catch down to its GDP-per-capita.
www.ft.com/content/6b8d...
www.ft.com/content/6b8d...
More evidence of European luxury facing increasing competition from home-grown Chinese brands.
Bloomberg: "Chinese consumers are losing interest in heritage European and US luxury brands, instead favoring homegrown premium labels for their distinctive Eastern aesthetic"
Bloomberg: "Chinese consumers are losing interest in heritage European and US luxury brands, instead favoring homegrown premium labels for their distinctive Eastern aesthetic"
November 17, 2025 at 9:55 AM
More evidence of European luxury facing increasing competition from home-grown Chinese brands.
Bloomberg: "Chinese consumers are losing interest in heritage European and US luxury brands, instead favoring homegrown premium labels for their distinctive Eastern aesthetic"
Bloomberg: "Chinese consumers are losing interest in heritage European and US luxury brands, instead favoring homegrown premium labels for their distinctive Eastern aesthetic"
Excellent AER paper from Luca et al. demonstrating how China’s exports crowd out production and curb innovation globally.
It reinforces the argument I made in Politico last year about the drag China’s distortions place on EU productivity and innovation.
1/
It reinforces the argument I made in Politico last year about the drag China’s distortions place on EU productivity and innovation.
1/
November 17, 2025 at 9:42 AM
Excellent AER paper from Luca et al. demonstrating how China’s exports crowd out production and curb innovation globally.
It reinforces the argument I made in Politico last year about the drag China’s distortions place on EU productivity and innovation.
1/
It reinforces the argument I made in Politico last year about the drag China’s distortions place on EU productivity and innovation.
1/
One of the most powerful, lucid and actionable blueprints about how to turn the boat around on the UK economy.
Truly excellent - if you want to learn how the UK economy dysfunctions, and how it could work better, read this.
(London should maybe hire John and Andrew as advisors to stoke growth).
Truly excellent - if you want to learn how the UK economy dysfunctions, and how it could work better, read this.
(London should maybe hire John and Andrew as advisors to stoke growth).
New essay out today by me and @acjsissons.bsky.social - ‘Getting Britain out of the hole: a plan for the economy’. You can read the whole thing here getting-out-of-the-hole.uk
A chart mega-thread follows 🧵
A chart mega-thread follows 🧵
Getting Britain out of the hole
A plan for the UK economy
getting-out-of-the-hole.uk
November 17, 2025 at 9:13 AM
One of the most powerful, lucid and actionable blueprints about how to turn the boat around on the UK economy.
Truly excellent - if you want to learn how the UK economy dysfunctions, and how it could work better, read this.
(London should maybe hire John and Andrew as advisors to stoke growth).
Truly excellent - if you want to learn how the UK economy dysfunctions, and how it could work better, read this.
(London should maybe hire John and Andrew as advisors to stoke growth).
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
New essay out today by me and @acjsissons.bsky.social - ‘Getting Britain out of the hole: a plan for the economy’. You can read the whole thing here getting-out-of-the-hole.uk
A chart mega-thread follows 🧵
A chart mega-thread follows 🧵
Getting Britain out of the hole
A plan for the UK economy
getting-out-of-the-hole.uk
November 17, 2025 at 8:00 AM
New essay out today by me and @acjsissons.bsky.social - ‘Getting Britain out of the hole: a plan for the economy’. You can read the whole thing here getting-out-of-the-hole.uk
A chart mega-thread follows 🧵
A chart mega-thread follows 🧵
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
"Last month, German automakers saw how a sudden halt in chip supplies from Nexperia, a Chinese-owned firm based in the Netherlands, could disrupt production within days — a crisis not yet fully resolved."
understatement of the article @fbermingham.bsky.social @sandertordoir.bsky.social :D
understatement of the article @fbermingham.bsky.social @sandertordoir.bsky.social :D
November 16, 2025 at 11:21 AM
"Last month, German automakers saw how a sudden halt in chip supplies from Nexperia, a Chinese-owned firm based in the Netherlands, could disrupt production within days — a crisis not yet fully resolved."
understatement of the article @fbermingham.bsky.social @sandertordoir.bsky.social :D
understatement of the article @fbermingham.bsky.social @sandertordoir.bsky.social :D
Some reflections from my side in the FT.
There’s widespread concern about the low quality of Germany’s spending.
I’d add that the European single market is indispensable to rekindle the German economy.
1/
There’s widespread concern about the low quality of Germany’s spending.
I’d add that the European single market is indispensable to rekindle the German economy.
1/
November 15, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Some reflections from my side in the FT.
There’s widespread concern about the low quality of Germany’s spending.
I’d add that the European single market is indispensable to rekindle the German economy.
1/
There’s widespread concern about the low quality of Germany’s spending.
I’d add that the European single market is indispensable to rekindle the German economy.
1/
The Swiss got out of the ire corner of King Donald by promising investments.
www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st...
www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st...
Joint Statement on a Framework for a United States – Switzerland – Liechtenstein Agreement on Fair, Balanced, and Reciprocal Trade
Today, the United States of America (United States), the Swiss Confederation (Switzerland), and the Principality of Liechtenstein (Liechtenstein)
www.whitehouse.gov
November 15, 2025 at 11:06 AM
The Swiss got out of the ire corner of King Donald by promising investments.
www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st...
www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st...
An idea.
Why don’t we call the current stock market boom the Icarus market - everyone has bubble jitters and yet we keep flying close(r) to the sun.
Why don’t we call the current stock market boom the Icarus market - everyone has bubble jitters and yet we keep flying close(r) to the sun.
November 15, 2025 at 10:19 AM
An idea.
Why don’t we call the current stock market boom the Icarus market - everyone has bubble jitters and yet we keep flying close(r) to the sun.
Why don’t we call the current stock market boom the Icarus market - everyone has bubble jitters and yet we keep flying close(r) to the sun.
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
The far right is stronger than ever in the European Parliament. And climate policy has become a testing ground for its influence.
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @zecsaky.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/7rqeFaO
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @zecsaky.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/7rqeFaO
November 14, 2025 at 1:00 PM
The far right is stronger than ever in the European Parliament. And climate policy has become a testing ground for its influence.
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @zecsaky.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/7rqeFaO
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @zecsaky.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/7rqeFaO
A semantic irony of the European Union.
It discusses its economic woes under the header of ‘competitiveness’ instead of ‘growth’ or ‘productivity’.
Even though the economic model of the country that championed economics as a game of maximising exports (competitive!) is kaput.
It discusses its economic woes under the header of ‘competitiveness’ instead of ‘growth’ or ‘productivity’.
Even though the economic model of the country that championed economics as a game of maximising exports (competitive!) is kaput.
November 14, 2025 at 10:05 AM
A semantic irony of the European Union.
It discusses its economic woes under the header of ‘competitiveness’ instead of ‘growth’ or ‘productivity’.
Even though the economic model of the country that championed economics as a game of maximising exports (competitive!) is kaput.
It discusses its economic woes under the header of ‘competitiveness’ instead of ‘growth’ or ‘productivity’.
Even though the economic model of the country that championed economics as a game of maximising exports (competitive!) is kaput.
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
"Nuclear-powered cruise missiles are not a new idea—they’re just a bad idea." While Russia’s Burevestnik missile is grabbing headlines, it does not fundamentally change Russia’s ability to hold the U.S. homeland at risk.
Read more: www.csis.org/analysis/rus...
Read more: www.csis.org/analysis/rus...
Russia’s Nuclear-Powered Burevestnik Missile: Implications for Missile Defense
Nuclear-powered cruise missiles are not a new idea—they’re just a bad idea. While Russia’s Burevestnik missile is grabbing headlines, it does not fundamentally change Russia’s ability to hold the U.S. homeland at risk or the strategic balance between the two states.
www.csis.org
November 13, 2025 at 10:30 PM
"Nuclear-powered cruise missiles are not a new idea—they’re just a bad idea." While Russia’s Burevestnik missile is grabbing headlines, it does not fundamentally change Russia’s ability to hold the U.S. homeland at risk.
Read more: www.csis.org/analysis/rus...
Read more: www.csis.org/analysis/rus...
Bingo.
How depressing is this?
Europe’s top processor of rare earths materials said Wednesday it had forged new partnerships to strengthen supply chains in the United States, deals that come as Europe lags in the race to break China’s chokehold on rare earths
Europe’s top processor of rare earths materials said Wednesday it had forged new partnerships to strengthen supply chains in the United States, deals that come as Europe lags in the race to break China’s chokehold on rare earths
Solvay of Belgium Creates Rare Earths Deals With U.S.
The contracts are the latest sign of how Europe is lagging the United States in the race to break China’s chokehold on rare earths.
www.nytimes.com
November 13, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Bingo.
Spot on! But Europe is moving too slowly.
I’m sure we will put a commitment to work on this in some European council statement.
Or better still: call for more analytical work on Europes dependencies:)
I’m sure we will put a commitment to work on this in some European council statement.
Or better still: call for more analytical work on Europes dependencies:)
This is Solvay locking in demand from US magnets plant & source material from Uk firm and huge howl towards the EU that if it doesn't do bankable contracts and more risk-sharing for separation to metal to magnet then future scale will also go to US.
There ARE many things EU can do to stave this off
There ARE many things EU can do to stave this off
November 13, 2025 at 8:08 PM
Spot on! But Europe is moving too slowly.
I’m sure we will put a commitment to work on this in some European council statement.
Or better still: call for more analytical work on Europes dependencies:)
I’m sure we will put a commitment to work on this in some European council statement.
Or better still: call for more analytical work on Europes dependencies:)
Woah.
On thing Europeans should worry about?
It is America first in rare earths - Europe last. Any G7 deal will work like that you.
Here we go - even more directly so.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/b...
On thing Europeans should worry about?
It is America first in rare earths - Europe last. Any G7 deal will work like that you.
Here we go - even more directly so.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/b...
Europe’s Biggest Rare Earths Producer Forges U.S. Deals
www.nytimes.com
November 13, 2025 at 7:38 PM
Woah.
On thing Europeans should worry about?
It is America first in rare earths - Europe last. Any G7 deal will work like that you.
Here we go - even more directly so.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/b...
On thing Europeans should worry about?
It is America first in rare earths - Europe last. Any G7 deal will work like that you.
Here we go - even more directly so.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/b...
I'd wager China's car exports hit 10 million vehicles p/y in the not too distant future. And its car imports are collapsing, so it will all be net exports.
For comparison: peak German net car exports reached 2.4 million before the pandemic (and unlike China, Germany imported a lot of cars too).
For comparison: peak German net car exports reached 2.4 million before the pandemic (and unlike China, Germany imported a lot of cars too).
Germany’s auto industry is in free fall. Stunning figures:
A few hundred more tanks help, but Germany has already lost 50% of its net car exports - a million vehicles - and China’s global car exports continue to surge.
I hope France’s G7 presidency helps convince China to lift internal demand, but hope is not a plan.
10/
I hope France’s G7 presidency helps convince China to lift internal demand, but hope is not a plan.
10/
November 13, 2025 at 12:01 PM
I'd wager China's car exports hit 10 million vehicles p/y in the not too distant future. And its car imports are collapsing, so it will all be net exports.
For comparison: peak German net car exports reached 2.4 million before the pandemic (and unlike China, Germany imported a lot of cars too).
For comparison: peak German net car exports reached 2.4 million before the pandemic (and unlike China, Germany imported a lot of cars too).
One indicator of all this: Germany's car exports to China are headed to very low levels.
November 13, 2025 at 11:23 AM
One indicator of all this: Germany's car exports to China are headed to very low levels.
The exportweltmeister has been dethroned. Can anything halt the decline of German industry?
Rarmament won’t turn things around. As the FT's Storbeck notes, Germany employs fewer people building tanks than making toys.
Macroeconomic and civilian industrial policies will be vital. Some thoughts
1/
Rarmament won’t turn things around. As the FT's Storbeck notes, Germany employs fewer people building tanks than making toys.
Macroeconomic and civilian industrial policies will be vital. Some thoughts
1/
November 13, 2025 at 11:21 AM
The exportweltmeister has been dethroned. Can anything halt the decline of German industry?
Rarmament won’t turn things around. As the FT's Storbeck notes, Germany employs fewer people building tanks than making toys.
Macroeconomic and civilian industrial policies will be vital. Some thoughts
1/
Rarmament won’t turn things around. As the FT's Storbeck notes, Germany employs fewer people building tanks than making toys.
Macroeconomic and civilian industrial policies will be vital. Some thoughts
1/
Jaw dropping anecdotes in the piece that put colour on the China shock
“A Munich-based compressor maker has two offers for a new wire-processing machine. A quote from a Swiss-based European company stands at €130k, compared with one from a firm based in China’s Zhejiang province for less than €28k”
“A Munich-based compressor maker has two offers for a new wire-processing machine. A quote from a Swiss-based European company stands at €130k, compared with one from a firm based in China’s Zhejiang province for less than €28k”
Must-read post article from Olaf Storbeck and the team at the FT.
I hope this is carefully read in all German ministries.
1/
www.ft.com/content/239e...
I hope this is carefully read in all German ministries.
1/
www.ft.com/content/239e...
Can anything halt the decline of German industry?
Europe’s manufacturing champion is in free fall. Economists are suggesting radical steps to save what is left
www.ft.com
November 12, 2025 at 9:39 PM
Jaw dropping anecdotes in the piece that put colour on the China shock
“A Munich-based compressor maker has two offers for a new wire-processing machine. A quote from a Swiss-based European company stands at €130k, compared with one from a firm based in China’s Zhejiang province for less than €28k”
“A Munich-based compressor maker has two offers for a new wire-processing machine. A quote from a Swiss-based European company stands at €130k, compared with one from a firm based in China’s Zhejiang province for less than €28k”
Must-read post article from Olaf Storbeck and the team at the FT.
I hope this is carefully read in all German ministries.
1/
www.ft.com/content/239e...
I hope this is carefully read in all German ministries.
1/
www.ft.com/content/239e...
Can anything halt the decline of German industry?
Europe’s manufacturing champion is in free fall. Economists are suggesting radical steps to save what is left
www.ft.com
November 12, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Must-read post article from Olaf Storbeck and the team at the FT.
I hope this is carefully read in all German ministries.
1/
www.ft.com/content/239e...
I hope this is carefully read in all German ministries.
1/
www.ft.com/content/239e...