Sander Tordoir
@sandertordoir.bsky.social
Chief economist @ Centre for European Reform. Eurozone macroeconomic policies | Role of 🇩🇪 🇳🇱 in EU. Formerly @ECB, @IMF, @Worldbank.
Pinned
Sander Tordoir
@sandertordoir.bsky.social
· Nov 18
Here is my starter pack on economics, trade and markets. Like others, my selection criterion was simple: these are minds I always learn from.
I'm sure I've missed many great accounts (still looking for some of my own friends). So please do suggest any additional names.
go.bsky.app/R2NdrtU
I'm sure I've missed many great accounts (still looking for some of my own friends). So please do suggest any additional names.
go.bsky.app/R2NdrtU
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
But after an Italian and a French head of the #ECB, the argument for a northern one is strong. Which is why Klaas #Knot is probably the best candidate, he knows his stuff, is outspoken, very experienced and has the political nous to steer the ECB through potentially quite turbulent times.
November 10, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Great points from Aslak.
New FTAs are good. But let’s be clear: the economy outside China and US is too small to absorb EU (net) exports.
If you favour new FTAs but oppose increasing EU internal demand you favour stagnation.
If you favour both, good.
If you oppose both you favour decline.
New FTAs are good. But let’s be clear: the economy outside China and US is too small to absorb EU (net) exports.
If you favour new FTAs but oppose increasing EU internal demand you favour stagnation.
If you favour both, good.
If you oppose both you favour decline.
Last, but not least: there is a future for rules-based trade. But it largely lies with the world outside China and the US. The EU has had significant success agreeing FTAs with Mercosur and Indonesia as welll as real progress in negotiaions with India.
November 10, 2025 at 5:13 PM
Great points from Aslak.
New FTAs are good. But let’s be clear: the economy outside China and US is too small to absorb EU (net) exports.
If you favour new FTAs but oppose increasing EU internal demand you favour stagnation.
If you favour both, good.
If you oppose both you favour decline.
New FTAs are good. But let’s be clear: the economy outside China and US is too small to absorb EU (net) exports.
If you favour new FTAs but oppose increasing EU internal demand you favour stagnation.
If you favour both, good.
If you oppose both you favour decline.
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
I love it when people mash together two completely unrelated phenomena as part of an effort to whip up excitement.
You don't have to invent a Chinese scheme to break the UST market to get mad at the existence of the UST basis, you can just understand that broad vol spikes lead to grossing down.
You don't have to invent a Chinese scheme to break the UST market to get mad at the existence of the UST basis, you can just understand that broad vol spikes lead to grossing down.
China has used the basis trade to unsettle the Treasury market and get Trump to fold on tariffs. We need to shut the basis trade down, not backstop it with a return to Fed balance sheet expansion. A piece inspired by the amazing @vmrconstancio.bsky.social.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-basis-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-basis-...
November 10, 2025 at 5:00 PM
I love it when people mash together two completely unrelated phenomena as part of an effort to whip up excitement.
You don't have to invent a Chinese scheme to break the UST market to get mad at the existence of the UST basis, you can just understand that broad vol spikes lead to grossing down.
You don't have to invent a Chinese scheme to break the UST market to get mad at the existence of the UST basis, you can just understand that broad vol spikes lead to grossing down.
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
COP30 boss: "Rich countries have lost enthusiasm for tackling climate crisis" and praises China.
Chinese renewables are great, but you have to be disconnected from reality to miss the wrenching change EU in particular has signed up to & China's CO2 trajectory.
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Chinese renewables are great, but you have to be disconnected from reality to miss the wrenching change EU in particular has signed up to & China's CO2 trajectory.
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
November 10, 2025 at 8:10 AM
COP30 boss: "Rich countries have lost enthusiasm for tackling climate crisis" and praises China.
Chinese renewables are great, but you have to be disconnected from reality to miss the wrenching change EU in particular has signed up to & China's CO2 trajectory.
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Chinese renewables are great, but you have to be disconnected from reality to miss the wrenching change EU in particular has signed up to & China's CO2 trajectory.
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Largely agree with Erik - I think the China damage is a bit larger but Germany may still surprise on the upside the next two years as tailwinds kick in.
One quibble: MDAX (mid cap) correlates more heavily with the German economy than the DAX with its global exposure and skewed sectoral composition.
One quibble: MDAX (mid cap) correlates more heavily with the German economy than the DAX with its global exposure and skewed sectoral composition.
In today’s note I illustrate why German per capita GDP, while lower, is better than US per capita GDP - and I argue that Germany will outperform the US in 2026-27.
independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...
independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...
Sign in to Sunday Wrap by Erik F. Nielsen
independenteconomics.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 8:48 AM
Largely agree with Erik - I think the China damage is a bit larger but Germany may still surprise on the upside the next two years as tailwinds kick in.
One quibble: MDAX (mid cap) correlates more heavily with the German economy than the DAX with its global exposure and skewed sectoral composition.
One quibble: MDAX (mid cap) correlates more heavily with the German economy than the DAX with its global exposure and skewed sectoral composition.
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
Erik Nielsen with another good example of why bureaucracy isn’t really Germanys main woe.
The US wastes 3x the resources on healthcare admin 👀
The US wastes 3x the resources on healthcare admin 👀
November 9, 2025 at 9:14 PM
Erik Nielsen with another good example of why bureaucracy isn’t really Germanys main woe.
The US wastes 3x the resources on healthcare admin 👀
The US wastes 3x the resources on healthcare admin 👀
One of the most self-destructive things Germany could do is to reverse the green transition now.
Renewables expansion has been on a tear but Germany has seen reversals before, unfortunately. And the country still does not have oil or gas and isn’t getting any anytime soon (ever).
Renewables expansion has been on a tear but Germany has seen reversals before, unfortunately. And the country still does not have oil or gas and isn’t getting any anytime soon (ever).
November 9, 2025 at 3:28 PM
One of the most self-destructive things Germany could do is to reverse the green transition now.
Renewables expansion has been on a tear but Germany has seen reversals before, unfortunately. And the country still does not have oil or gas and isn’t getting any anytime soon (ever).
Renewables expansion has been on a tear but Germany has seen reversals before, unfortunately. And the country still does not have oil or gas and isn’t getting any anytime soon (ever).
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
„Ohne Klimaschutz in Europa verliert die Menschheit den Kampf ums Klima. Aber gewinnt die Menschheit diesen Kampf, dann wird es Chinas Verdienst gewesen sein.“
taz.de/Kampf-gegen-...
taz.de/Kampf-gegen-...
Kampf gegen die Erderhitzung: Danke, China!
Die Volksrepublik lässt den Kampf gegen Erderhitzung gewinnbarer erscheinen als je zuvor. Das versetzt fossile Staaten und Unternehmen in Panik.
taz.de
November 8, 2025 at 8:19 AM
„Ohne Klimaschutz in Europa verliert die Menschheit den Kampf ums Klima. Aber gewinnt die Menschheit diesen Kampf, dann wird es Chinas Verdienst gewesen sein.“
taz.de/Kampf-gegen-...
taz.de/Kampf-gegen-...
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
7 minutes on Asia: Europe’s struggle for relevance in the age of China and Trump’s ‘G2’
My long read on the EU's drift to the margins on China - and almost everything else
My long read on the EU's drift to the margins on China - and almost everything else
7 minutes on Asia: Europe’s struggle for relevance in the age of Trump’s ‘G2’
A brief discussion on the Indo-Pacific suggests a union that is increasingly peripheral – on China and arguably almost everything else.
www.scmp.com
November 7, 2025 at 8:14 AM
7 minutes on Asia: Europe’s struggle for relevance in the age of China and Trump’s ‘G2’
My long read on the EU's drift to the margins on China - and almost everything else
My long read on the EU's drift to the margins on China - and almost everything else
None of it has deterred Dutch politicians from heralding Argentina as thé example for the Netherlands to follow.
I’m sure Alan just doesn’t get the Argentine-American 4D chess over a beef dinner.
I’m sure Alan just doesn’t get the Argentine-American 4D chess over a beef dinner.
Hubristic Argentine president with uncertain US and IMF backing decides to maintain half-arsed crawling band exchange rate regime to hold up peso rather than letting it float despite market pressure.
WHAT COULD GO WRONG?
www.ft.com/content/b22f...
WHAT COULD GO WRONG?
www.ft.com/content/b22f...
Milei defies calls to float Argentine peso freely
Libertarian president vows to double down on transformation of country’s economy
www.ft.com
November 7, 2025 at 6:09 PM
None of it has deterred Dutch politicians from heralding Argentina as thé example for the Netherlands to follow.
I’m sure Alan just doesn’t get the Argentine-American 4D chess over a beef dinner.
I’m sure Alan just doesn’t get the Argentine-American 4D chess over a beef dinner.
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
The worsening state of the US labor market.
We talked with @conorsen.bsky.social about the jobs picture, since we don't have a jobs report.
Verdict: Clear signs of deterioration, with risks of rapidly rising unemployment. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/l...
We talked with @conorsen.bsky.social about the jobs picture, since we don't have a jobs report.
Verdict: Clear signs of deterioration, with risks of rapidly rising unemployment. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/l...
Lots More on the Worsening State of the US Labor Market
Podcast Episode · Odd Lots · 11/07/2025 · 22m
podcasts.apple.com
November 7, 2025 at 12:12 PM
The worsening state of the US labor market.
We talked with @conorsen.bsky.social about the jobs picture, since we don't have a jobs report.
Verdict: Clear signs of deterioration, with risks of rapidly rising unemployment. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/l...
We talked with @conorsen.bsky.social about the jobs picture, since we don't have a jobs report.
Verdict: Clear signs of deterioration, with risks of rapidly rising unemployment. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/l...
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
The economist in me loves this.
European 10y gov bonds have a yield of 3.2%. They assume 4%. Fine.
Should Euroclear not be able, with some prodding, to generate above 4% nominal returns?
European 10y gov bonds have a yield of 3.2%. They assume 4%. Fine.
Should Euroclear not be able, with some prodding, to generate above 4% nominal returns?
Brussels vs Belgium: Commission says that if Belgium won't sign off on a €140bn loan to Ukraine against Russian assets, EU countries will need to find up to €5.6bn a year to service a loan raised on the open market.
@bmoens.bsky.social & I got the document so you don't have to
on.ft.com/47LzdiM
@bmoens.bsky.social & I got the document so you don't have to
on.ft.com/47LzdiM
EU must pay up to €5.6bn a year in interest if no agreement on Russian assets, Brussels warns
[FREE TO READ] Choices for Ukraine funding set out in commission document drafted after failure to agree plan last month
on.ft.com
November 7, 2025 at 4:01 PM
The economist in me loves this.
European 10y gov bonds have a yield of 3.2%. They assume 4%. Fine.
Should Euroclear not be able, with some prodding, to generate above 4% nominal returns?
European 10y gov bonds have a yield of 3.2%. They assume 4%. Fine.
Should Euroclear not be able, with some prodding, to generate above 4% nominal returns?
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
Nieuwe aflevering met @mathijsbouman.nl over het ‘Wopke compromis’ van het Europese klimaatdoel. En antwoorden op jullie vele vragen.
share.podimo.com/s/OP5ajWDp
share.podimo.com/s/OP5ajWDp
Formatie update, het Wopke-compromis en Zohran Mamdani | Exclusief bij Podimo
Er lijkt ineens wel vaart te komen in de formatie - na één dag praten met verkenner Wouter Koolmees. Wat verwachten wij van de gesprekken tussen JA21 en D66 en die tussen VVD en GroenLinks-PvdA? "Het ...
share.podimo.com
November 7, 2025 at 12:17 PM
Nieuwe aflevering met @mathijsbouman.nl over het ‘Wopke compromis’ van het Europese klimaatdoel. En antwoorden op jullie vele vragen.
share.podimo.com/s/OP5ajWDp
share.podimo.com/s/OP5ajWDp
A fun chart. AI as a general purpose tech. Is this time different or not? And if so will it lead to walhalla or human extinction? Take your pick.
November 7, 2025 at 12:05 PM
A fun chart. AI as a general purpose tech. Is this time different or not? And if so will it lead to walhalla or human extinction? Take your pick.
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
Good morning from Brussels, where an EU struggling internally and with its global position is trying to respond as it knows best, by punching down on smaller partners. For opening paragraphs suggest it is trying to renege on the common understanding with the UK. www.ft.com/content/8963...
EU demands UK pay into budget as part of relationship ‘reset’
Growing tension between London and Brussels just six months after summit set out to build stronger ties
www.ft.com
November 7, 2025 at 6:17 AM
Good morning from Brussels, where an EU struggling internally and with its global position is trying to respond as it knows best, by punching down on smaller partners. For opening paragraphs suggest it is trying to renege on the common understanding with the UK. www.ft.com/content/8963...
Fascinating.
The bluffers guide to the railway bubble vs the actual historians.
And why Britain has such a lousy railway system.
The bluffers guide to the railway bubble vs the actual historians.
And why Britain has such a lousy railway system.
November 6, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Fascinating.
The bluffers guide to the railway bubble vs the actual historians.
And why Britain has such a lousy railway system.
The bluffers guide to the railway bubble vs the actual historians.
And why Britain has such a lousy railway system.
Ik hoop dat Milei erin slaagt om Argentinië macro-economische stabiliteit te verschaffen.
Maar Argentinië heeft keer op keer haar IMF doelstellingen voor de staatsfinancien en het opbouwen van deviezen niet gehaald.
Als je wilt bezuinigen is Griekenland of Nederland zelf een beter voorbeeld.
Maar Argentinië heeft keer op keer haar IMF doelstellingen voor de staatsfinancien en het opbouwen van deviezen niet gehaald.
Als je wilt bezuinigen is Griekenland of Nederland zelf een beter voorbeeld.
Opvallende oproep.
Argentinië is herhaaldelijk failliet gegaan, kende hyperinflatie en had een niet-onafhankelijke centrale bank.
Ik zie de vergelijking met Nederland niet.
1/
Argentinië is herhaaldelijk failliet gegaan, kende hyperinflatie en had een niet-onafhankelijke centrale bank.
Ik zie de vergelijking met Nederland niet.
1/
November 6, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Ik hoop dat Milei erin slaagt om Argentinië macro-economische stabiliteit te verschaffen.
Maar Argentinië heeft keer op keer haar IMF doelstellingen voor de staatsfinancien en het opbouwen van deviezen niet gehaald.
Als je wilt bezuinigen is Griekenland of Nederland zelf een beter voorbeeld.
Maar Argentinië heeft keer op keer haar IMF doelstellingen voor de staatsfinancien en het opbouwen van deviezen niet gehaald.
Als je wilt bezuinigen is Griekenland of Nederland zelf een beter voorbeeld.
Een toevoeging.
Nederland heeft een dalende staatsschuld (een van de laagste ter wereld), en een enorm tekort op de lopende rekening (exporteert spaartegoeden, geen buitenlandse financiering nodig).
Niet bepaald een land wat een IMF of Trump bailout nodig heeft zoals Argentinië.
Nederland heeft een dalende staatsschuld (een van de laagste ter wereld), en een enorm tekort op de lopende rekening (exporteert spaartegoeden, geen buitenlandse financiering nodig).
Niet bepaald een land wat een IMF of Trump bailout nodig heeft zoals Argentinië.
Opvallende oproep.
Argentinië is herhaaldelijk failliet gegaan, kende hyperinflatie en had een niet-onafhankelijke centrale bank.
Ik zie de vergelijking met Nederland niet.
1/
Argentinië is herhaaldelijk failliet gegaan, kende hyperinflatie en had een niet-onafhankelijke centrale bank.
Ik zie de vergelijking met Nederland niet.
1/
November 6, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Een toevoeging.
Nederland heeft een dalende staatsschuld (een van de laagste ter wereld), en een enorm tekort op de lopende rekening (exporteert spaartegoeden, geen buitenlandse financiering nodig).
Niet bepaald een land wat een IMF of Trump bailout nodig heeft zoals Argentinië.
Nederland heeft een dalende staatsschuld (een van de laagste ter wereld), en een enorm tekort op de lopende rekening (exporteert spaartegoeden, geen buitenlandse financiering nodig).
Niet bepaald een land wat een IMF of Trump bailout nodig heeft zoals Argentinië.
Opvallende oproep.
Argentinië is herhaaldelijk failliet gegaan, kende hyperinflatie en had een niet-onafhankelijke centrale bank.
Ik zie de vergelijking met Nederland niet.
1/
Argentinië is herhaaldelijk failliet gegaan, kende hyperinflatie en had een niet-onafhankelijke centrale bank.
Ik zie de vergelijking met Nederland niet.
1/
November 6, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Opvallende oproep.
Argentinië is herhaaldelijk failliet gegaan, kende hyperinflatie en had een niet-onafhankelijke centrale bank.
Ik zie de vergelijking met Nederland niet.
1/
Argentinië is herhaaldelijk failliet gegaan, kende hyperinflatie en had een niet-onafhankelijke centrale bank.
Ik zie de vergelijking met Nederland niet.
1/
I note that concern about the second China shock to Europe is going mainstream.
Good piece from ING bank: "While stronger Chinese competition can potentially mute eurozone inflation and GDP growth, it is also likely to aggravate problems in key industries"
think.ing.com/articles/eur...
Good piece from ING bank: "While stronger Chinese competition can potentially mute eurozone inflation and GDP growth, it is also likely to aggravate problems in key industries"
think.ing.com/articles/eur...
Rising trade tensions unveil Europe’s China shock 2.0
Increased Chinese competition within Europe and in third markets may intensify as a result of global trade tensions
think.ing.com
November 6, 2025 at 10:11 AM
I note that concern about the second China shock to Europe is going mainstream.
Good piece from ING bank: "While stronger Chinese competition can potentially mute eurozone inflation and GDP growth, it is also likely to aggravate problems in key industries"
think.ing.com/articles/eur...
Good piece from ING bank: "While stronger Chinese competition can potentially mute eurozone inflation and GDP growth, it is also likely to aggravate problems in key industries"
think.ing.com/articles/eur...
A new piece from Armida and myself on the political and economic outlook for the Netherlands after the elections.
Analysts @armida.bsky.social and @sandertordoir.bsky.social decipher what the election results mean for The Netherlands and Europe more broadly.
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight, read here: buff.ly/te5HYI3
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight, read here: buff.ly/te5HYI3
November 5, 2025 at 6:53 PM
A new piece from Armida and myself on the political and economic outlook for the Netherlands after the elections.
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
In case anyone was getting euphoric about the Dutch election results, here's a useful corrective from my colleagues @armida.bsky.social & @sandertordoir.bsky.social . In sum - the likely coalition will be better than last time, but the far right vote is still rising, though more fragmented.
Analysts @armida.bsky.social and @sandertordoir.bsky.social decipher what the election results mean for The Netherlands and Europe more broadly.
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight, read here: buff.ly/te5HYI3
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight, read here: buff.ly/te5HYI3
November 5, 2025 at 3:56 PM
In case anyone was getting euphoric about the Dutch election results, here's a useful corrective from my colleagues @armida.bsky.social & @sandertordoir.bsky.social . In sum - the likely coalition will be better than last time, but the far right vote is still rising, though more fragmented.
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
Europa als speelbal tussen China en Amerika. Hoe wordt Europa weer een speler?
Met @sandertordoir.bsky.social spreek ik over Europa’s strategische achterstand op China en de VS, en wat er nodig is om onze autonomie terug te winnen.
open.spotify.com/episode/0vdf...
Met @sandertordoir.bsky.social spreek ik over Europa’s strategische achterstand op China en de VS, en wat er nodig is om onze autonomie terug te winnen.
open.spotify.com/episode/0vdf...
#54 Sander Tordoir - Europa als speelbal tussen China en Amerika. Hoe wordt Europa weer een speler?
open.spotify.com
November 4, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Europa als speelbal tussen China en Amerika. Hoe wordt Europa weer een speler?
Met @sandertordoir.bsky.social spreek ik over Europa’s strategische achterstand op China en de VS, en wat er nodig is om onze autonomie terug te winnen.
open.spotify.com/episode/0vdf...
Met @sandertordoir.bsky.social spreek ik over Europa’s strategische achterstand op China en de VS, en wat er nodig is om onze autonomie terug te winnen.
open.spotify.com/episode/0vdf...