Aslak Berg
@aslak.bsky.social
Trade, public policy, economics, research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, formerly with the Norwegian civil service and EFTA
Reposted by Aslak Berg
Very interesting paper. Confirms what we knew from cross-country studies - large, rapid effects. The really interesting part is the firm-level analysis, which shows similar, if somewhat lower, magnitudes.
www.nber.org/papers/w3445...
www.nber.org/papers/w3445...
November 10, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Very interesting paper. Confirms what we knew from cross-country studies - large, rapid effects. The really interesting part is the firm-level analysis, which shows similar, if somewhat lower, magnitudes.
www.nber.org/papers/w3445...
www.nber.org/papers/w3445...
Reposted by Aslak Berg
Great points from Aslak.
New FTAs are good. But let’s be clear: the economy outside China and US is too small to absorb EU (net) exports.
If you favour new FTAs but oppose increasing EU internal demand you favour stagnation.
If you favour both, good.
If you oppose both you favour decline.
New FTAs are good. But let’s be clear: the economy outside China and US is too small to absorb EU (net) exports.
If you favour new FTAs but oppose increasing EU internal demand you favour stagnation.
If you favour both, good.
If you oppose both you favour decline.
Last, but not least: there is a future for rules-based trade. But it largely lies with the world outside China and the US. The EU has had significant success agreeing FTAs with Mercosur and Indonesia as welll as real progress in negotiaions with India.
November 10, 2025 at 5:13 PM
Great points from Aslak.
New FTAs are good. But let’s be clear: the economy outside China and US is too small to absorb EU (net) exports.
If you favour new FTAs but oppose increasing EU internal demand you favour stagnation.
If you favour both, good.
If you oppose both you favour decline.
New FTAs are good. But let’s be clear: the economy outside China and US is too small to absorb EU (net) exports.
If you favour new FTAs but oppose increasing EU internal demand you favour stagnation.
If you favour both, good.
If you oppose both you favour decline.
Reposted by Aslak Berg
"The EU’s past ability to match the US in #trade matters was a function of the US being willing to play by the rules. It relied on the assumption that the two powers would keep trade and security matters in separate silos." mailings.cer.eu/insights/thr...
Three hard lessons for European trade
Global trade policy is now dominated by great power politics, putting Europe under pressure. The EU will have to accommodate the US, confront China and derisk from both.
mailings.cer.eu
November 10, 2025 at 2:47 PM
"The EU’s past ability to match the US in #trade matters was a function of the US being willing to play by the rules. It relied on the assumption that the two powers would keep trade and security matters in separate silos." mailings.cer.eu/insights/thr...
It's been a rough year for European trade policy. The deal with the US, disputes with China and an overall sense of a worsening economic climate. My latest piece tries to draw out some lessons for Europe www.cer.eu/insights/thr...
Three hard lessons for European trade
Global trade policy is now dominated by great power politics, putting Europe under pressure. The EU will have to accommodate the US, confront China and derisk from both.
www.cer.eu
November 10, 2025 at 2:22 PM
It's been a rough year for European trade policy. The deal with the US, disputes with China and an overall sense of a worsening economic climate. My latest piece tries to draw out some lessons for Europe www.cer.eu/insights/thr...
Reposted by Aslak Berg
Does the rise of populism have economic roots, and more protectionist and anti-immigration policies help? Quick thread on my latest piece here
buff.ly/O2SoUok
buff.ly/O2SoUok
October 28, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Does the rise of populism have economic roots, and more protectionist and anti-immigration policies help? Quick thread on my latest piece here
buff.ly/O2SoUok
buff.ly/O2SoUok
Reading this history of Gaza and struck by the fact that Britain at the time actually had 38,000 soldiers to place near the Suez Canal
October 19, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Reading this history of Gaza and struck by the fact that Britain at the time actually had 38,000 soldiers to place near the Suez Canal
There's a coherent and well-meaning worldview behind this, but a) no-one in the UK government is able to communicate it and b) it's principles-based rather than outcome-based.
How has the government got itself into the position of standing up for Israeli football hooligans, while criminalising peaceful supporters of Palestine Action?
October 17, 2025 at 9:06 PM
There's a coherent and well-meaning worldview behind this, but a) no-one in the UK government is able to communicate it and b) it's principles-based rather than outcome-based.
This is my biggest struggle when I’m in the US. They generally like their bread either too soft, too sweet or too dense, sometimes all three at once
One thing I am always reminded that Europe does unambiguously better than the US: bread. You can find bread as good as anything in Europe in the states but it’s hard. Every country in continental Europe I’ve ever been to makes high quality bread stupidly cheap and available.
October 17, 2025 at 11:33 AM
This is my biggest struggle when I’m in the US. They generally like their bread either too soft, too sweet or too dense, sometimes all three at once
Reposted by Aslak Berg
Simplifying EU regulation and a harder line on member-states’ gold-plating of EU law would cut compliance costs and boost growth.
New CER/Martens Centre policy brief by @aslak.bsky.social, @elisabettaco.bsky.social, @zach-meyers.bsky.social & @sandertordoir.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/Rb9hOiI
New CER/Martens Centre policy brief by @aslak.bsky.social, @elisabettaco.bsky.social, @zach-meyers.bsky.social & @sandertordoir.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/Rb9hOiI
October 16, 2025 at 8:00 AM
Simplifying EU regulation and a harder line on member-states’ gold-plating of EU law would cut compliance costs and boost growth.
New CER/Martens Centre policy brief by @aslak.bsky.social, @elisabettaco.bsky.social, @zach-meyers.bsky.social & @sandertordoir.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/Rb9hOiI
New CER/Martens Centre policy brief by @aslak.bsky.social, @elisabettaco.bsky.social, @zach-meyers.bsky.social & @sandertordoir.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/Rb9hOiI
Who had the bright idea to design the Eurostar waiting area at St Pancras with about a third of the capacity it needs?
October 16, 2025 at 5:02 AM
Who had the bright idea to design the Eurostar waiting area at St Pancras with about a third of the capacity it needs?
Nothing more satisfying than the feeling after a good workout that you weren't really motivated to do at first
October 14, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Nothing more satisfying than the feeling after a good workout that you weren't really motivated to do at first
Reposted by Aslak Berg
France right now is further proof of my longstanding theory that Italy from the 90's onward was the forerunner for modern politics and the template every other country is emulating, each with its own unique twist and on its own schedule.
October 10, 2025 at 8:11 PM
France right now is further proof of my longstanding theory that Italy from the 90's onward was the forerunner for modern politics and the template every other country is emulating, each with its own unique twist and on its own schedule.
When I was younger for the longest time I thought the Israeli parliament was called “the Kness”. The -et suffix is the Norwegian equivalent of “the” for neutral words so Knesset just read intuitively as the Kness for me
October 11, 2025 at 11:16 AM
When I was younger for the longest time I thought the Israeli parliament was called “the Kness”. The -et suffix is the Norwegian equivalent of “the” for neutral words so Knesset just read intuitively as the Kness for me
Reposted by Aslak Berg
L'Italia ancora una volta all'avanguardia! 🇮🇹🇮🇹💪💪🫠
France right now is further proof of my longstanding theory that Italy from the 90's onward was the forerunner for modern politics and the template every other country is emulating, each with its own unique twist and on its own schedule.
October 10, 2025 at 8:22 PM
L'Italia ancora una volta all'avanguardia! 🇮🇹🇮🇹💪💪🫠
France right now is further proof of my longstanding theory that Italy from the 90's onward was the forerunner for modern politics and the template every other country is emulating, each with its own unique twist and on its own schedule.
October 10, 2025 at 8:11 PM
France right now is further proof of my longstanding theory that Italy from the 90's onward was the forerunner for modern politics and the template every other country is emulating, each with its own unique twist and on its own schedule.
Told you.
Anyone who knows a little bit about Norway and the Nobel Peace Prize Committee knows Trump has no chance of getting the prize. They're capable of embarrassing mistakes, like giving it to Obama, but they're just not going to give it to Trump.
October 10, 2025 at 9:15 AM
Told you.
Anyone who knows a little bit about Norway and the Nobel Peace Prize Committee knows Trump has no chance of getting the prize. They're capable of embarrassing mistakes, like giving it to Obama, but they're just not going to give it to Trump.
October 9, 2025 at 4:17 PM
Anyone who knows a little bit about Norway and the Nobel Peace Prize Committee knows Trump has no chance of getting the prize. They're capable of embarrassing mistakes, like giving it to Obama, but they're just not going to give it to Trump.
Reposted by Aslak Berg
Welcome Charles Grant @cergrant.bsky.social to Bsky! This means the whole @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social research team is here - make sure to follow for their excellent analysis.
@cerianbond.bsky.social
@elisabettaco.bsky.social
@zecsaky.bsky.social
@sandertordoir.bsky.social
@aslak.bsky.social
@cerianbond.bsky.social
@elisabettaco.bsky.social
@zecsaky.bsky.social
@sandertordoir.bsky.social
@aslak.bsky.social
October 9, 2025 at 9:56 AM
Welcome Charles Grant @cergrant.bsky.social to Bsky! This means the whole @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social research team is here - make sure to follow for their excellent analysis.
@cerianbond.bsky.social
@elisabettaco.bsky.social
@zecsaky.bsky.social
@sandertordoir.bsky.social
@aslak.bsky.social
@cerianbond.bsky.social
@elisabettaco.bsky.social
@zecsaky.bsky.social
@sandertordoir.bsky.social
@aslak.bsky.social
Ceasefire in Gaza at long last
October 8, 2025 at 10:12 PM
Ceasefire in Gaza at long last
Reposted by Aslak Berg
It would help if we had a bit of confidence in the basics, like a viable path to substantially lower energy prices, instead of having industries survive out of intertia despite the failure to get the basics right
October 7, 2025 at 4:03 PM
It would help if we had a bit of confidence in the basics, like a viable path to substantially lower energy prices, instead of having industries survive out of intertia despite the failure to get the basics right
Just read an article on the web site of the Norwegian equivalent of the BBC that linked to an FT article... through a paywall removal site. Not sure that's entirely kosher, NRK!
October 7, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Just read an article on the web site of the Norwegian equivalent of the BBC that linked to an FT article... through a paywall removal site. Not sure that's entirely kosher, NRK!
My greatest pet peeve is this tendency where everyone puts labels on everyone, including themselves. There's no need! Yu can have a complex set of habits and beliefs that don't put you neatly on anyone's side or in anyone's camp. And that makes it easier to see that is also the case for most people
October 4, 2025 at 10:32 AM
My greatest pet peeve is this tendency where everyone puts labels on everyone, including themselves. There's no need! Yu can have a complex set of habits and beliefs that don't put you neatly on anyone's side or in anyone's camp. And that makes it easier to see that is also the case for most people
Reposted by Aslak Berg
Good to talk to Amol Rajan on the Today Programme earlier about the Hamas statement. It’s a remarkably astute move, accepting Israel’s key demand for hostage release, thereby earning an approving response from Trump and throwing all the pressure back on Netanyahu. Could still go wrong. But 1/6
October 4, 2025 at 9:59 AM
Good to talk to Amol Rajan on the Today Programme earlier about the Hamas statement. It’s a remarkably astute move, accepting Israel’s key demand for hostage release, thereby earning an approving response from Trump and throwing all the pressure back on Netanyahu. Could still go wrong. But 1/6
I don't really think people grasp the extent of the demographic crisis. A fertility rate is 1.5 as the UK, France etc, each generation is 25% smaller without immigration. If it's 1, as it is in several countries in Asia, South America and Europe each generation is less than half the size
October 4, 2025 at 9:18 AM
I don't really think people grasp the extent of the demographic crisis. A fertility rate is 1.5 as the UK, France etc, each generation is 25% smaller without immigration. If it's 1, as it is in several countries in Asia, South America and Europe each generation is less than half the size