Ian Bond
@cerianbond.bsky.social
Deputy director, Centre for European Reform, London @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social . Supporter of democracy, the rule of law, the EU & Ukraine. Opponent of authoritarianism, corruption & Putin's Russia.
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Ian Bond
@cerianbond.bsky.social
· May 31
The Routledge Guide to the European Union
Written by experts, this long-established and definitive guide to the workings of the European Union provides comprehensive, straightforward and readable coverage of this sometimes misunderstood and c...
www.routledge.com
It's been a long time coming, but I am delighted to announce that the 2nd edition of the Routledge Guide to the European Union will be published on June 30th, and is available for pre-order from June 9th. @routledgebuseco.bsky.social @tandfresearch.bsky.social www.routledge.com/The-Routledg...
As Ukraine marks Holodomor Remembrance Day, mourning millions of victims of Stalin's genocidal famine, it feels as though the Trump administration is happy to give Putin another chance to finish off what Stalin started. Europe should do everything in its power to help Ukraine & defeat Russia.
November 22, 2025 at 2:36 PM
As Ukraine marks Holodomor Remembrance Day, mourning millions of victims of Stalin's genocidal famine, it feels as though the Trump administration is happy to give Putin another chance to finish off what Stalin started. Europe should do everything in its power to help Ukraine & defeat Russia.
Reposted by Ian Bond
I was honored to speak at a conference “Intent to Destroy: Confronting Russia’s Campaign to Erase Ukraine & Its People” at Georgetown. The mere suggestion of amnesty for Russia's war crimes and genocidal actions against Ukrainians, contained in Trump's 28-point plan, is an unconscionable obscenity.
November 22, 2025 at 1:15 AM
I was honored to speak at a conference “Intent to Destroy: Confronting Russia’s Campaign to Erase Ukraine & Its People” at Georgetown. The mere suggestion of amnesty for Russia's war crimes and genocidal actions against Ukrainians, contained in Trump's 28-point plan, is an unconscionable obscenity.
Reposted by Ian Bond
Btw, I do hope people understand what they have seen today. It was a well-planned and deliberate ambush of Ukraine by Trump, to force the Ukrainians to bend the knee to Putin's dictatorship. It was not slip-shod, rushed, impulsive or an accident. It was prepared malice.
November 22, 2025 at 1:39 AM
Btw, I do hope people understand what they have seen today. It was a well-planned and deliberate ambush of Ukraine by Trump, to force the Ukrainians to bend the knee to Putin's dictatorship. It was not slip-shod, rushed, impulsive or an accident. It was prepared malice.
A 2nd great thread on the US 'peace' package, this time on security guarantees that aren't - by @ruthdeyermond.bsky.social , who is on fire today!
A quick run through of the Trump administration's proposal for a Ukraine security guarantee, which is a security guarantee in the same way that the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia is a party committed to liberalism and democracy. 🧵 x.com/BarakRavid/s...
Barak Ravid on X: "FULL TEXT OF THE U.S. DRAFT PROPOSAL FOR A UKRAINE SECURITY GUARANTEE: 🚨This Framework establishes the conditions for an armistice between Ukraine and the Russian Federation and provides a security assurance modeled on the principles of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty," / X
FULL TEXT OF THE U.S. DRAFT PROPOSAL FOR A UKRAINE SECURITY GUARANTEE: 🚨This Framework establishes the conditions for an armistice between Ukraine and the Russian Federation and provides a security assurance modeled on the principles of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty,
x.com
November 21, 2025 at 8:23 PM
A 2nd great thread on the US 'peace' package, this time on security guarantees that aren't - by @ruthdeyermond.bsky.social , who is on fire today!
Reposted by Ian Bond
Exactly this. The plan is asking Zelenskyy and all Ukrainians to trust their lives and futures to the word of the man who invaded them and the word of the man who betrayed them.
Moreover, Zelenskyy knows deals w Trump & Putin are worthless - neither cares about past commitments unless they need to instrumentalise them. Europe needs to understand that its security as well as UA's is at stake, & increase all forms of pressure on RU. It can do a lot even without the US. 2/2
November 21, 2025 at 5:39 PM
Exactly this. The plan is asking Zelenskyy and all Ukrainians to trust their lives and futures to the word of the man who invaded them and the word of the man who betrayed them.
Good thread. I hope the EU can sort out the 'reparations loan', but I'm not wholly confident. If it can't, & Trump forces Ukraine to capitulate (which is what the 28-point plan amounts to), Europe, as well as Ukraine, will be under a greatly increased Russian threat.
My cynical gut reaction to US-Russia negotiated deal is that the Kremlin was very smart. This is a play to divide not just the US and Ukraine but the US and Europe. They made what look like concessions, so they look reasonable. They also threw US some money. But they know Ukraine/EU can't say yes.1/
November 21, 2025 at 3:32 PM
Good thread. I hope the EU can sort out the 'reparations loan', but I'm not wholly confident. If it can't, & Trump forces Ukraine to capitulate (which is what the 28-point plan amounts to), Europe, as well as Ukraine, will be under a greatly increased Russian threat.
I agree with a lot of this, but not the conclusion. I doubt Zelenskyy could accept these terms without the population taking to the streets - they showed over the attempt to limit the independence of the anti-corruption agencies that they were willing to do so for much less. 1/2
November 21, 2025 at 3:10 PM
I agree with a lot of this, but not the conclusion. I doubt Zelenskyy could accept these terms without the population taking to the streets - they showed over the attempt to limit the independence of the anti-corruption agencies that they were willing to do so for much less. 1/2
Reposted by Ian Bond
[Opinion] #GlobalEurope: #Europe needs to get real about #China, by @cerianbond.bsky.social | @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social
www.pubaffairsbruxelles.eu/opinion-anal...
www.pubaffairsbruxelles.eu/opinion-anal...
Europe needs to get real about China - PubAffairs Bruxelles
For some years, European governments and the EU have had China policies designed to reflect a balanced approach to Beijing – neither too confrontational nor too deferential. China’s behaviour is makin...
www.pubaffairsbruxelles.eu
November 21, 2025 at 11:16 AM
[Opinion] #GlobalEurope: #Europe needs to get real about #China, by @cerianbond.bsky.social | @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social
www.pubaffairsbruxelles.eu/opinion-anal...
www.pubaffairsbruxelles.eu/opinion-anal...
Reposted by Ian Bond
This research is important because it corroborates what we already knew - that when comparing the UK to peer economies, it has had a big slowdown since 2016. It does so with firm-level data and finds more EU-connected firms have sizeable shortfalls in productivity and investment compared to less.
Brexit has caused almost twice as much damage to the UK economy than estimated by official forecasts, according to new paper from a group of experts including a senior Bank of England economist
Brexit Hit to UK Economy Double Official Estimate, Study Finds
Brexit has caused almost twice as much damage to the UK economy than estimated by official forecasts, according to new paper from a group of experts including a senior Bank of England economist.
bloom.bg
November 21, 2025 at 11:14 AM
This research is important because it corroborates what we already knew - that when comparing the UK to peer economies, it has had a big slowdown since 2016. It does so with firm-level data and finds more EU-connected firms have sizeable shortfalls in productivity and investment compared to less.
Excellent analysis of 'peace plan' (in reality, more likely a plan for a renewed war in a few years, at most). The point about the US acting as a mediator between NATO & Russia reflects something I've noticed about Trump before - he often speaks of NATO as though the US weren't a member. Not good!
Some notable things in what's being called the "Trump peace plan" but which could not have been more clearly written in Moscow if it came with a 2 for 1 deal on tickets to the Bolshoi Ballet. 🧵
November 21, 2025 at 10:45 AM
Excellent analysis of 'peace plan' (in reality, more likely a plan for a renewed war in a few years, at most). The point about the US acting as a mediator between NATO & Russia reflects something I've noticed about Trump before - he often speaks of NATO as though the US weren't a member. Not good!
Excellent thread. Ukraine gets little out of these 28 points except the possibility of EU membership (still subject to Hungarian veto?); Putin gets plenty, inc a favourable starting point for next assault on Ukraine & return of all but $100 billion of immobilised Russian assets, plus US investment.
Here is Trump's full 28 point plan for Ukraine. It would destroy Ukraine as a sovereign state and leave it helpless to face a Russian attack in the future. It would also give Putin full vindication and immunity from prosecution.
www.axios.com/2025/11/20/t...
www.axios.com/2025/11/20/t...
Trump's full 28-point Ukraine-Russia peace plan
The full plan was obtained by Axios and verified by Ukrainian and U.S. officials.
www.axios.com
November 21, 2025 at 10:40 AM
Excellent thread. Ukraine gets little out of these 28 points except the possibility of EU membership (still subject to Hungarian veto?); Putin gets plenty, inc a favourable starting point for next assault on Ukraine & return of all but $100 billion of immobilised Russian assets, plus US investment.
Agree. Coalition of the Willing has to stop deluding itself that after a ceasefire on reasonable terms it will send symbolic forces to Ukraine w US backing. UK, France, Germany, Poland &c must invest whatever it takes to defeat RU in UA, or they will have to fight it, without US help, further West.
It’s not a “US plan”, it’s Moscow’s plan, dictated to guilty men in the White House. Setting aside the injustices being pushed on Ukraine, this would be a disaster for European security & guarantee a war with 🇷🇺 in a few years, in which, presumably, 🇺🇸 and 🇷🇺 are on the same side.
on.ft.com/3LYajoR
on.ft.com/3LYajoR
US plan for Ukraine-Russia peace calls on Kyiv to cede land under its control
Ukrainian officials say President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is being pressed to agree to terms negotiated by the US and Russia
on.ft.com
November 21, 2025 at 8:56 AM
Agree. Coalition of the Willing has to stop deluding itself that after a ceasefire on reasonable terms it will send symbolic forces to Ukraine w US backing. UK, France, Germany, Poland &c must invest whatever it takes to defeat RU in UA, or they will have to fight it, without US help, further West.
Reposted by Ian Bond
European governments and the EU have had China policies designed to reflect a balanced approach to Beijing – neither too confrontational nor too deferential, writes @cerianbond.bsky.social for @encompasseurope.bsky.social.
Read here: buff.ly/Plx721v
Read here: buff.ly/Plx721v
Europe needs to get real about China
For some years, European governments and the EU have had China policies designed to reflect a balanced approach to Beijing – neither too confrontational nor too deferential.…
encompass-europe.com
November 20, 2025 at 1:01 PM
European governments and the EU have had China policies designed to reflect a balanced approach to Beijing – neither too confrontational nor too deferential, writes @cerianbond.bsky.social for @encompasseurope.bsky.social.
Read here: buff.ly/Plx721v
Read here: buff.ly/Plx721v
Reposted by Ian Bond
These arguments are explored at greater length in a recent paper by @cerianbond.bsky.social ‘China and Europe: Can the EU and the UK find a shared strategy?' - read here: buff.ly/AbPDOAp
November 20, 2025 at 1:01 PM
These arguments are explored at greater length in a recent paper by @cerianbond.bsky.social ‘China and Europe: Can the EU and the UK find a shared strategy?' - read here: buff.ly/AbPDOAp
A perfectly timed exposé of the Russian Orthodox Church’s role in Putin’s influence operations in the West & military operations against Ukraine - though I doubt the useful idiots inviting these dubious characters into the White House to spread lies about Ukraine will read it, unfortunately.
OMG 😳 Last week I wrote about Russia’s Orthodox Church being an arm of intel (part of my new series on the far right) and just read that the White House will meet clergy with ties to the Russian Orthodox Church this week thehill.com/policy/inter...
Chapter 2: Russia's Orthodox Church
Welcome to my new series, Inside the Kremlin’s Global Far-Right Operations.
open.substack.com
November 18, 2025 at 5:53 AM
A perfectly timed exposé of the Russian Orthodox Church’s role in Putin’s influence operations in the West & military operations against Ukraine - though I doubt the useful idiots inviting these dubious characters into the White House to spread lies about Ukraine will read it, unfortunately.
Take advantage of @RoutledgeBooks.bsky.social's 25% off Black Friday sale!
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invt.io
November 17, 2025 at 9:38 PM
Take advantage of @RoutledgeBooks.bsky.social's 25% off Black Friday sale!
This is the perfect time to get your hands on this comprehensive guide to how the EU operates, which I updated this year. Everything you always wanted to know about the EU, but were afraid to ask…
invt.io/1bxb9lgm660
This is the perfect time to get your hands on this comprehensive guide to how the EU operates, which I updated this year. Everything you always wanted to know about the EU, but were afraid to ask…
invt.io/1bxb9lgm660
Reposted by Ian Bond
The Home Secretary says "we have become the destination of choice in Europe, clearly visible to every people smuggler and would-be illegal migrant across the world"
That is a factually untrue claim: the Home Office shows that the UK is fifth, getting 1/10 claims, while Germany gets 1/5 claims
That is a factually untrue claim: the Home Office shows that the UK is fifth, getting 1/10 claims, while Germany gets 1/5 claims
November 17, 2025 at 3:51 PM
The Home Secretary says "we have become the destination of choice in Europe, clearly visible to every people smuggler and would-be illegal migrant across the world"
That is a factually untrue claim: the Home Office shows that the UK is fifth, getting 1/10 claims, while Germany gets 1/5 claims
That is a factually untrue claim: the Home Office shows that the UK is fifth, getting 1/10 claims, while Germany gets 1/5 claims
Reposted by Ian Bond
Thanks Ian. Let's hope speaking louder and cogently in English about the value of foreign languages will at least make some difference. I'm doing an event for secondary students with @exetermodlangs.bsky.social in December promoting the personal & professional value of Russian and other languages.
November 12, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Thanks Ian. Let's hope speaking louder and cogently in English about the value of foreign languages will at least make some difference. I'm doing an event for secondary students with @exetermodlangs.bsky.social in December promoting the personal & professional value of Russian and other languages.
I totally agree with @jheathershaw.bsky.social , & have signed the petition. "Say it in English, only louder" was never a good way of dealing with the outside world; in current times, it's even less appropriate.
Languages education at all levels, especially higher, is under existential threat in the UK. It is an impoverished society which produces so few students interested in languages & a shortsighted state that cannot subsidise this public good through tough times. Pls consider signing.
c.org/qQMPqxcLCD
c.org/qQMPqxcLCD
We Can Make an Impact.
Stop the removal of Modern Languages courses at the University of Nottingham!
c.org
November 12, 2025 at 3:12 PM
I totally agree with @jheathershaw.bsky.social , & have signed the petition. "Say it in English, only louder" was never a good way of dealing with the outside world; in current times, it's even less appropriate.
Important investigation of operations by shadowy firms based in the Baltic states to keep Russian shadow fleet fuelled.
November 10, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Important investigation of operations by shadowy firms based in the Baltic states to keep Russian shadow fleet fuelled.
Reposted by Ian Bond
Short @economist.com piece on what Orbán is trying to do vis-a-vis Ukraine through the Visegrad countries, with comments from me.
Orbán's trip to DC needs to be seen through the lens of the 2026 Hungarian elections, and him trying to regain support domestically.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
Orbán's trip to DC needs to be seen through the lens of the 2026 Hungarian elections, and him trying to regain support domestically.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
A Czech shift to the right is worrying news for Ukraine
But the new prime minister will probably not join Viktor Orban’s efforts to block aid
www.economist.com
November 7, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Short @economist.com piece on what Orbán is trying to do vis-a-vis Ukraine through the Visegrad countries, with comments from me.
Orbán's trip to DC needs to be seen through the lens of the 2026 Hungarian elections, and him trying to regain support domestically.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
Orbán's trip to DC needs to be seen through the lens of the 2026 Hungarian elections, and him trying to regain support domestically.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
Reposted by Ian Bond
The EU’s role in defence hinges largely on the level of defence funding in the next EU budget.
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @lscazzieri.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/bxYKhe4
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @lscazzieri.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/bxYKhe4
November 4, 2025 at 11:02 AM
The EU’s role in defence hinges largely on the level of defence funding in the next EU budget.
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @lscazzieri.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/bxYKhe4
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @lscazzieri.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/bxYKhe4
Reposted by Ian Bond
Read the paper here: buff.ly/LOb9lqM
November 5, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Read the paper here: buff.ly/LOb9lqM
Reposted by Ian Bond
🎙️ @zecsaky.bsky.social, @benansell.bsky.social and @johnspringford.bsky.social discuss the rise of European #populism and what moderates should or shouldn't do to stem its rise in the latest #CERpodcast. 🎙️
Listen to the episode here: buff.ly/qT7A3eF
Listen to the episode here: buff.ly/qT7A3eF
November 5, 2025 at 9:00 AM
🎙️ @zecsaky.bsky.social, @benansell.bsky.social and @johnspringford.bsky.social discuss the rise of European #populism and what moderates should or shouldn't do to stem its rise in the latest #CERpodcast. 🎙️
Listen to the episode here: buff.ly/qT7A3eF
Listen to the episode here: buff.ly/qT7A3eF
In case anyone was getting euphoric about the Dutch election results, here's a useful corrective from my colleagues @armida.bsky.social & @sandertordoir.bsky.social . In sum - the likely coalition will be better than last time, but the far right vote is still rising, though more fragmented.
Analysts @armida.bsky.social and @sandertordoir.bsky.social decipher what the election results mean for The Netherlands and Europe more broadly.
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight, read here: buff.ly/te5HYI3
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight, read here: buff.ly/te5HYI3
November 5, 2025 at 3:56 PM
In case anyone was getting euphoric about the Dutch election results, here's a useful corrective from my colleagues @armida.bsky.social & @sandertordoir.bsky.social . In sum - the likely coalition will be better than last time, but the far right vote is still rising, though more fragmented.