Arthur Snell
@snellarthur.bsky.social
Writer, podcaster and former diplomat.
Buy my book👇
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https://ko-fi.com/snellarthur
Buy my book👇
https://tr.ee/ElementalBookshopOrg
https://tr.ee/ElementalAmazon
https://tr.ee/ElementalWaterstones
If you don't want to buy my book, you could buy me a coffee👇
https://ko-fi.com/snellarthur
Pinned
Arthur Snell
@snellarthur.bsky.social
· Oct 30
Elemental: How we will live in a warming world
I'm excited to share with you the cover of my upcoming book, out in March.
open.substack.com
🚨🚨My book, Elemental, is out in March🚨🚨
But you can pre-order it now from Amazon & Waterstones. Amazon will lock in any future discount.
Why, I hear you ask?
Because *it's my 50th birthday today*
(Prosaic reason - it helps immensely if we get good pre-orders.)
open.substack.com/pub/arthursn...
But you can pre-order it now from Amazon & Waterstones. Amazon will lock in any future discount.
Why, I hear you ask?
Because *it's my 50th birthday today*
(Prosaic reason - it helps immensely if we get good pre-orders.)
open.substack.com/pub/arthursn...
Reposted by Arthur Snell
White House situation room:
*long silence*
"Put Maduro back and pretend it didn't happen?"
*long silence*
"Put Maduro back and pretend it didn't happen?"
January 4, 2026 at 11:30 AM
White House situation room:
*long silence*
"Put Maduro back and pretend it didn't happen?"
*long silence*
"Put Maduro back and pretend it didn't happen?"
Reposted by Arthur Snell
A few weeks ago, Russian propagandists bragged how Venezuela is protected by Russia and the United States cannot do anything.
Now, all Russia does is express concerns and condemnations.
Now, all Russia does is express concerns and condemnations.
January 4, 2026 at 10:58 AM
A few weeks ago, Russian propagandists bragged how Venezuela is protected by Russia and the United States cannot do anything.
Now, all Russia does is express concerns and condemnations.
Now, all Russia does is express concerns and condemnations.
This is now when nothing has actually gone wrong yet. Wait for when the roadside bombs start.
Jan 3 poll of 1,902 U.S. adults (+/-2.8 points)
% who support | oppose the U.S. running Venezuela following the U.S. military's capture of President Nicolás Maduro
U.S. adults 34% | 41%
Democrats 16% | 64%
Independents 26% | 43%
Republicans 60% | 16%
today.yougov.com/topics/polit...
% who support | oppose the U.S. running Venezuela following the U.S. military's capture of President Nicolás Maduro
U.S. adults 34% | 41%
Democrats 16% | 64%
Independents 26% | 43%
Republicans 60% | 16%
today.yougov.com/topics/polit...
January 4, 2026 at 10:56 AM
This is now when nothing has actually gone wrong yet. Wait for when the roadside bombs start.
Reposted by Arthur Snell
Which comes back to my point that he’s done it by mistake. Like the Ukraine “minerals deal” where it’s decades - if ever - before one gram of a critical mineral comes out of the ground. He’s basically a combination of thick and very powerful, and this is where it leads.
January 4, 2026 at 10:52 AM
Which comes back to my point that he’s done it by mistake. Like the Ukraine “minerals deal” where it’s decades - if ever - before one gram of a critical mineral comes out of the ground. He’s basically a combination of thick and very powerful, and this is where it leads.
Reposted by Arthur Snell
Also these rejuvenation projects take years/decade before they start to really impact production rates.
Trump wouldn’t see the benefit of it in his term, so why would he bother?!?
It’s different from when Bush immediately went after Iraq at the start of his first term.
Trump wouldn’t see the benefit of it in his term, so why would he bother?!?
It’s different from when Bush immediately went after Iraq at the start of his first term.
January 4, 2026 at 10:48 AM
Also these rejuvenation projects take years/decade before they start to really impact production rates.
Trump wouldn’t see the benefit of it in his term, so why would he bother?!?
It’s different from when Bush immediately went after Iraq at the start of his first term.
Trump wouldn’t see the benefit of it in his term, so why would he bother?!?
It’s different from when Bush immediately went after Iraq at the start of his first term.
Reposted by Arthur Snell
From deep inside the makeshift situation room located somewhere off the Mar A Lago dance floor
Whiskey Pete Hegseth frantically makes an extremely large liquor order after Trump said he and Marco Rubio will be “Running Venezuela”
Meanwhile Trump demands aids stop blocking his X account from view
Whiskey Pete Hegseth frantically makes an extremely large liquor order after Trump said he and Marco Rubio will be “Running Venezuela”
Meanwhile Trump demands aids stop blocking his X account from view
January 4, 2026 at 2:47 AM
From deep inside the makeshift situation room located somewhere off the Mar A Lago dance floor
Whiskey Pete Hegseth frantically makes an extremely large liquor order after Trump said he and Marco Rubio will be “Running Venezuela”
Meanwhile Trump demands aids stop blocking his X account from view
Whiskey Pete Hegseth frantically makes an extremely large liquor order after Trump said he and Marco Rubio will be “Running Venezuela”
Meanwhile Trump demands aids stop blocking his X account from view
Reposted by Arthur Snell
This statement certainly doesn't back Trump's attack explicitly - it very carefully doesn't do that - and implicitly rebukes it through its referance to international law.
It's carefully drafted to avoid direct criticism, but very clearly doesn't do what Adam claims.
It's carefully drafted to avoid direct criticism, but very clearly doesn't do what Adam claims.
Keir Starmer explicitly backs Trump's attack on Venezuela.
Says he has "long supported" getting rid of Maduro, who is an "illegitimate President" and "we shed no tears about the end of his regime".
Says he has "long supported" getting rid of Maduro, who is an "illegitimate President" and "we shed no tears about the end of his regime".
January 3, 2026 at 8:11 PM
This statement certainly doesn't back Trump's attack explicitly - it very carefully doesn't do that - and implicitly rebukes it through its referance to international law.
It's carefully drafted to avoid direct criticism, but very clearly doesn't do what Adam claims.
It's carefully drafted to avoid direct criticism, but very clearly doesn't do what Adam claims.
Minor point but when he said it was the "Donroe Doctrine" you just knew that's because he'd realised he had no idea how to pronounce "Trump Corollary".
Trump's plan appears to be for Venezuela to remain under the day-to-day rule of a senior chavista, with its democratically elected leaders excluded and its wealth controlled by American corporations. It's a scheme worthy of a mob boss. www.economist.com/the-americas...
Donald Trump wants to run Venezuela, and dominate the western hemisphere
Snatching Nicolás Maduro and attempting to take control of Venezuela and its oil is an extraordinary display of the new “Donroe doctrine”
www.economist.com
January 4, 2026 at 8:57 AM
Minor point but when he said it was the "Donroe Doctrine" you just knew that's because he'd realised he had no idea how to pronounce "Trump Corollary".
Reposted by Arthur Snell
In 1887, British forces kidnapped & exiled the King of Opobo in today’s Nigeria. British Palm oil traders had persuaded the government that the tariffs he imposed restricted their profits. It was a milestone in the Scramble for Africa and indirect rule by Britain.
alanlester.co.uk/blog/antisla...
alanlester.co.uk/blog/antisla...
Antislavery and the Original ‘Scramble for Africa’, 1807-1879
Keynote Lecture for 140 Years Beyond the Berlin Conference, Africa Centre and SOAS Friday 12 December and Saturday 13 December 2025 Alan Lester Most British imperial historians have tended t…
alanlester.co.uk
January 4, 2026 at 8:34 AM
In 1887, British forces kidnapped & exiled the King of Opobo in today’s Nigeria. British Palm oil traders had persuaded the government that the tariffs he imposed restricted their profits. It was a milestone in the Scramble for Africa and indirect rule by Britain.
alanlester.co.uk/blog/antisla...
alanlester.co.uk/blog/antisla...
Reposted by Arthur Snell
When he said “no casualties” he meant no casualties that he cares about.
The New York Times has just confirmed that 40 civilians died in President Trump's invasion.
This is the aftermath in one area
This is the aftermath in one area
January 4, 2026 at 8:50 AM
When he said “no casualties” he meant no casualties that he cares about.
Reposted by Arthur Snell
what time does 2027 start
January 4, 2026 at 7:18 AM
what time does 2027 start
It's all about the oil. But the world doesn't need Venezuelan oil right now.
Trump is probably focused on the money he wrongly thinks he'll make from Venezuelan oil. But he's not a details guy and nobody has thought through the details. Essentially, the US has taken over Venezuela by mistake. Stranger things have happened, but not many.
open.substack.com/pub/arthursn...
open.substack.com/pub/arthursn...
Stranger Things
The 1980s Nostalgia of Trump's Foreign Policy is probably going to end up, like Stranger Things, as a horror show.
open.substack.com
January 4, 2026 at 8:51 AM
It's all about the oil. But the world doesn't need Venezuelan oil right now.
Reposted by Arthur Snell
Reposted by Arthur Snell
I hear Paul Bremer is tanned, rested, and ready.
January 4, 2026 at 8:17 AM
I hear Paul Bremer is tanned, rested, and ready.
Reposted by Arthur Snell
Spoke to @snellarthur.bsky.social earlier on my Times Radio show about Venezuela
@listentotimesradio.bsky.social
@listentotimesradio.bsky.social
January 3, 2026 at 9:59 PM
Spoke to @snellarthur.bsky.social earlier on my Times Radio show about Venezuela
@listentotimesradio.bsky.social
@listentotimesradio.bsky.social
Reposted by Arthur Snell
Great detail from Arthur as norma
Trump is probably focused on the money he wrongly thinks he'll make from Venezuelan oil. But he's not a details guy and nobody has thought through the details. Essentially, the US has taken over Venezuela by mistake. Stranger things have happened, but not many.
open.substack.com/pub/arthursn...
open.substack.com/pub/arthursn...
Stranger Things
The 1980s Nostalgia of Trump's Foreign Policy is probably going to end up, like Stranger Things, as a horror show.
open.substack.com
January 3, 2026 at 10:34 PM
Great detail from Arthur as norma
it's some of the world's least desirable oil, at a time when prices are at a five year low... go figure
one of the dumbest parts of this is the idea that oil producers actually want their holdings in venezeula back, which they do not. it’s a war for oil no one really wants.
January 3, 2026 at 10:30 PM
it's some of the world's least desirable oil, at a time when prices are at a five year low... go figure
Trump is probably focused on the money he wrongly thinks he'll make from Venezuelan oil. But he's not a details guy and nobody has thought through the details. Essentially, the US has taken over Venezuela by mistake. Stranger things have happened, but not many.
open.substack.com/pub/arthursn...
open.substack.com/pub/arthursn...
Stranger Things
The 1980s Nostalgia of Trump's Foreign Policy is probably going to end up, like Stranger Things, as a horror show.
open.substack.com
January 3, 2026 at 9:51 PM
Trump is probably focused on the money he wrongly thinks he'll make from Venezuelan oil. But he's not a details guy and nobody has thought through the details. Essentially, the US has taken over Venezuela by mistake. Stranger things have happened, but not many.
open.substack.com/pub/arthursn...
open.substack.com/pub/arthursn...
Reposted by Arthur Snell
Chevron donated to Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration fund. Chevron’s CEO publicly praised trump’s energy agenda. Chevron donations: 94% Republican, 6% Democrat.
Chevron is the ONLY foreign oil company allowed to operate in Venezuela.
Follow the money.
Chevron is the ONLY foreign oil company allowed to operate in Venezuela.
Follow the money.
Chevron Is in Prime Position to Help Unlock Venezuela’s Vast Oil Reserves
The South American country says its proved oil reserves top 300 billion barrels which, if true, would make its bounty the world’s largest.
www.wsj.com
January 3, 2026 at 8:40 PM
Chevron donated to Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration fund. Chevron’s CEO publicly praised trump’s energy agenda. Chevron donations: 94% Republican, 6% Democrat.
Chevron is the ONLY foreign oil company allowed to operate in Venezuela.
Follow the money.
Chevron is the ONLY foreign oil company allowed to operate in Venezuela.
Follow the money.
Reposted by Arthur Snell
“What appears to be a newly created account appeared to invest $30,000 Friday in Maduro's exit. After Maduro went into custody Saturday morning, that same investor netted $436,759.61.”
Someone made $400K by predicting Maduro's capture. Here's what happened
The winnings come as the rules governing prediction markets are still evolving.
www.axios.com
January 3, 2026 at 7:29 PM
“What appears to be a newly created account appeared to invest $30,000 Friday in Maduro's exit. After Maduro went into custody Saturday morning, that same investor netted $436,759.61.”
To be fair - Maduro has not been seen as a legitimate president since 2018 by a large proportion of the international community including the UK.
Keir Starmer explicitly backs Trump's attack on Venezuela.
Says he has "long supported" getting rid of Maduro, who is an "illegitimate President" and "we shed no tears about the end of his regime".
Says he has "long supported" getting rid of Maduro, who is an "illegitimate President" and "we shed no tears about the end of his regime".
January 3, 2026 at 8:55 PM
To be fair - Maduro has not been seen as a legitimate president since 2018 by a large proportion of the international community including the UK.
People wondering whether the US is going to be able to "run the country" of Venezuela at "no cost" might like to remind themselves it's a place one-third *larger* than Afghanistan, the running of which cost the US $2,260,000,000,000. (That's $2.26 trillion).
January 3, 2026 at 8:42 PM
People wondering whether the US is going to be able to "run the country" of Venezuela at "no cost" might like to remind themselves it's a place one-third *larger* than Afghanistan, the running of which cost the US $2,260,000,000,000. (That's $2.26 trillion).
Yes I thought that too
January 3, 2026 at 6:55 PM
Yes I thought that too
Reposted by Arthur Snell
The cynics think today's attack on Venezuela is staged and transactional. Maduro is allied with Putin, but in 2019 Putin offered Trump a swap: Russia cedes Venezuela and gets Ukraine. (See Fiona Hill's testimony in Trump's first impeachment trial, h/t @davetroy.com). Even Maduro may be in on it. 2/
January 3, 2026 at 4:22 PM
The cynics think today's attack on Venezuela is staged and transactional. Maduro is allied with Putin, but in 2019 Putin offered Trump a swap: Russia cedes Venezuela and gets Ukraine. (See Fiona Hill's testimony in Trump's first impeachment trial, h/t @davetroy.com). Even Maduro may be in on it. 2/
Reposted by Arthur Snell
