Pascal
pascallth.bsky.social
Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social
Political analyst

Right makes might

Substack: https://pascallth.substack.com/
Russia and China will be considering what precedents have been set for behaviour that they can get away with
January 3, 2026 at 11:06 AM
Another time to deploy my 'can't rejoin' post

TL;DR the process of rejoining and the process of becoming ready to rejoin are actually the same thing, so it makes no sense to rule out the first on the basis that the second is not complete
pascallth.substack.com/p/can-the-uk...
January 3, 2026 at 10:24 AM
Reposted by Pascal
BREAKING: President Trump says President Maduro of Venezuela and his wife have been captured and flown out of the country.
January 3, 2026 at 9:32 AM
Reposted by Pascal
BREAKING: Residents in the Venezuelan capital of Caracas reported loud explosions and aircraft overflying the city in the early hours of Saturday morning, with multiples areas experiencing power outages
Caracas Residents Report Loud Explosions, Aircraft Overflying
Residents in the Venezuelan capital of Caracas reported loud explosions and aircraft overflying the city, with multiple areas experiencing power outages.
bloom.bg
January 3, 2026 at 6:52 AM
We can be almost certain this is true given it's what Russia just attempted with the claim of an attack on Putin's residence
Ukraine’s foreign intelligence service has warned that the Kremlin is likely to carry out a false flag attack inside Russia or inside the Ukrainian territories it illegally occupies to derail peace talks mediated by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Ukraine warns Putin plans false flag attack inside Russia to derail peace talks
Ukraine’s secret service warns of a staged high-casualty attack, potentially targeting a church in the run-up to Russian Orthodox Christmas.
www.politico.eu
January 2, 2026 at 12:33 PM
I'd be interested to know what has driven this shift in Spain, which is pretty major

A counter-reaction to Trump?
Where do Europeans stand on the Ukraine war at the end of 2025?

% in each country who say they want Ukraine to win, and care that it does so

🇬🇧 70% (+3 from Mar)
🇪🇸 66% (+9)
🇵🇱 65% (new)
🇩🇪 54% (+2)
🇫🇷 40% (-10)
🇮🇹 33% (-1)

(Only 1-7% say same for Russia)

yougov.co.uk/internationa...
January 2, 2026 at 9:20 AM
Old enough to remember when the United States government sanctioned European citizens for the crime of promoting the regulation of these platforms
so x dot com’s ai generated CSAM and they admitted it may violate US law and … i haven’t seen in anyone in power say much at all or call to stop using the platform
January 2, 2026 at 8:53 AM
Reposted by Pascal
Happy 40th anniversary of EEC accession to Spain and Portugal. A resounding success story not just for Iberia but for Europe as a whole 🇪🇸🇵🇹🇪🇺
Hace 40 años España entró en las Comunidades Europeas. Reforzábamos Europa y Europa nos dio solidaridad y progreso.

Hoy, una España fuerte y democrática supone una Europa fuerte y democrática. Por eso, trabajamos por una Europa unida, potente y que dé un salto de soberanía.
January 1, 2026 at 11:48 AM
Happy new year - may 2026 be the year Russia is driven out of Europe 🇪🇺🇺🇦
January 1, 2026 at 12:27 AM
Reposted by Pascal
It's official: Bulgaria is in the euro-zone.
An excerpt from an atypically emotional NYE address by the Central Bank governor:
"Thank you, friends. We are home.
This is not a protocol. It is a feeling.
In this sense, the euro is not just an economic solution...
www.bnb.bg/AboutUs/Pres...
December 31, 2025 at 11:30 PM
Breaking up the EU is a policy pursued by our enemies
The Polish government has asked the EU to take action against TikTok over a series of videos showing AI-generated young women calling for Poland to leave the EU.

"There is no doubt this is Russian disinformation," says the government's spokesman.
Poland calls for EU action against AI-generated TikTok videos calling for "Polexit"
notesfrompoland.com
December 31, 2025 at 12:17 PM
Reposted by Pascal
Russia successfully put the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government on the agenda in the US. Now they're going to do all they can to avoid real democratic elections from taking place
pascallth.substack.com/p/russia-doe...
Russia does not want elections in Ukraine
At least not real ones
pascallth.substack.com
December 30, 2025 at 8:20 AM
Russia successfully put the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government on the agenda in the US. Now they're going to do all they can to avoid real democratic elections from taking place
pascallth.substack.com/p/russia-doe...
Russia does not want elections in Ukraine
At least not real ones
pascallth.substack.com
December 30, 2025 at 8:20 AM
Trump's response to the Russian claim of a Ukrainian attack on Putin's residence isn't just a problem for Ukraine, it's a warning for all NATO members of how the US government could react to a false flag attack by Russia
December 29, 2025 at 8:19 PM
Reposted by Pascal
⚡️Russian state media quotes FM Lavrov saying Moscow will reconsider its negotiating position in light of alleged attack by Ukrainian forces on Putin's residence in Novgorod.

Zelenskyy responds in voice note to reporters, saying it's "lies," Russia laying groundwork to attack govt buildings in Kyiv.
December 29, 2025 at 3:40 PM
This matches one of the issues with the US national security strategy, where Washington-based activists have drafted positions without considering how voters in Europe might respond
pascallth.substack.com/p/magas-cake...
December 29, 2025 at 11:54 AM
This is just announcing Russia's steps for creating vassal states - move in by force, make them dependent on you for key pillars of the economy, threaten to pull the plug if they ever do something you don't like
Trump: "Russia wants to see Ukraine succeed. It sounds a little strange but President Putin was very generous in his feeling toward Ukraine succeeding, including supplying energy, electricity and other things at very low prices."
December 29, 2025 at 7:16 AM
For peaceful purposes no doubt
December 27, 2025 at 9:37 PM
Reposted by Pascal
Putin, again dressed in military uniform, said he plans to continue the war because “the heads of the Ukraine regime are not in a hurry to solve this conflict with peaceful means."
December 27, 2025 at 6:34 PM
One of the reasons there won't be a peace deal is because Russia won't accept the legitimacy of any votes in Ukraine

Where Russia is right now - with Washington questioning the legitimacy of Ukraine's govt - is better than where they would be after US-backed elections/referendum
⚡Russia preparing to proclaim future Ukrainian elections rigged, Zelensky says, citing intelligence.

As Ukraine is beginning to prepare for a belated presidential election, Russia is already preparing to proclaim it rigged, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Russia preparing to proclaim future Ukrainian elections rigged, Zelensky says, citing intelligence
Elections have been floated as part of a peace or ceasefire deal that Ukraine has been discussing with the U.S., but voting in the occupied territories complicates the process.
kyivindependent.com
December 27, 2025 at 5:00 PM
There's no debate here, everyone participating in Russia's colonisation of Ukraine is guilty

www.bbc.com/news/article...
Should a top Russian archaeologist face trial for digging in occupied Crimea?
The case of a scholar wanted in Ukraine sparked a debate on the relationship between museums and the Russian state.
www.bbc.com
December 27, 2025 at 12:56 PM
The planes need to be over Ukraine if they're to actually make a difference
Poland scrambled fighter jets and placed its air defense systems on heightened alert overnight as Moscow launched one of its heaviest air assaults on Ukraine in recent weeks.
Russian air barrage on Kyiv prompts Polish jet scramble
The overnight strikes came one day before Volodymyr Zelenskyy is due to meet Donald Trump to discuss a newly revised peace plan.
www.politico.eu
December 27, 2025 at 12:19 PM
The new post-Brexit trade deals were rushed and poorly negotiated as the government was desperate to prove Brexit 'benefits'

Rejoining the EU would be a welcome excuse to scrap these and reset
December 27, 2025 at 9:53 AM
This is still true
Several headlines on the theme of 'progress in Ukraine peace talks'

But we know that the new text will likely be rejected by Russia, meaning we are no closer to peace

The real story is US-Europe reconciliation talks
December 26, 2025 at 10:01 PM
Reposted by Pascal
Following the King's address, the combined choir of "Songs for Ukraine" and the Royal Opera House Choir performed the English version of the Ukrainian song "Shchedryk," known as "Carol of the Bells."
December 25, 2025 at 10:12 PM