Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social
My latest this week on Trump's sanctions carve-out for Hungary and what US sanctions on Russia are worth
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-weaken...
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-weaken...
The weakening value of US sanctions
Still worth fighting for?
pascallth.substack.com
November 11, 2025 at 8:42 AM
My latest this week on Trump's sanctions carve-out for Hungary and what US sanctions on Russia are worth
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-weaken...
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-weaken...
Reposted by Pascal
"Research released this month by economists at the Bank of England, the Bundesbank, King’s College London and the universities of Stanford and Nottingham underscored the economic hit from leaving the EU. Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6-8%"
on.ft.com/4p1NoHv
on.ft.com/4p1NoHv
Rachel Reeves signals she will break manifesto pledge with Budget tax rises
Chancellor hopes to win support from Labour MPs by lifting two-child benefit cap
on.ft.com
November 11, 2025 at 7:08 AM
"Research released this month by economists at the Bank of England, the Bundesbank, King’s College London and the universities of Stanford and Nottingham underscored the economic hit from leaving the EU. Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6-8%"
on.ft.com/4p1NoHv
on.ft.com/4p1NoHv
This would be very good news
A real boost to ending child poverty
A real boost to ending child poverty
NEW: Rachel Reeves signals she intends to remove the two-child cap *in full*
"I don't think a child should be penalised because they're in a bigger family through no fault of their own," she tells BBC.
"I don't think a child should be penalised because they're in a bigger family through no fault of their own," she tells BBC.
November 10, 2025 at 3:08 PM
This would be very good news
A real boost to ending child poverty
A real boost to ending child poverty
There are no nationalists left in Europe, only the local branches of Trump International
The Heritage Foundation, the intellectual engine behind the 922-page blueprint that has become the key policy manual for Donald Trump’s second term, is partnering with a constellation of European nationalist far-right movements to export its playbook.
The Heritage Foundation goes from MAGA to MEGA — Make Europe Great Again
On the agenda: pro-natalism, freedom of expression, opposing trans rights and fighting Chinese influence.
www.politico.eu
November 10, 2025 at 8:07 AM
There are no nationalists left in Europe, only the local branches of Trump International
Reposted by Pascal
Massive Russian overnight strikes hit Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Mykolaiv. Power infrastructure was targeted, causing blackouts and fires. A woman was killed and dozens injured. Emergency outages are now in place across several regions.
November 8, 2025 at 8:09 AM
Massive Russian overnight strikes hit Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Mykolaiv. Power infrastructure was targeted, causing blackouts and fires. A woman was killed and dozens injured. Emergency outages are now in place across several regions.
Trump gives Hungary an extension on the oil sanctions after Orban convinced him it's just too hard
- Hungary got a carve-out from EU sanctions in 2022 and has done nothing since
- The Czechs were in the same position but managed to get off Russian oil in that time
edition.cnn.com/2025/11/07/e...
- Hungary got a carve-out from EU sanctions in 2022 and has done nothing since
- The Czechs were in the same position but managed to get off Russian oil in that time
edition.cnn.com/2025/11/07/e...
Trump grants Hungary one-year exemption from Russian energy sanctions, White House says | CNN
President Donald Trump told Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán that the United States will not penalize Hungary for continuing to purchase Russian energy for one year, softening the impact of sanct...
edition.cnn.com
November 8, 2025 at 7:09 AM
Trump gives Hungary an extension on the oil sanctions after Orban convinced him it's just too hard
- Hungary got a carve-out from EU sanctions in 2022 and has done nothing since
- The Czechs were in the same position but managed to get off Russian oil in that time
edition.cnn.com/2025/11/07/e...
- Hungary got a carve-out from EU sanctions in 2022 and has done nothing since
- The Czechs were in the same position but managed to get off Russian oil in that time
edition.cnn.com/2025/11/07/e...
UK-EU talks are in a bad spot
Simply a reminder that there is no good, stable outcome for us outside the EU
Simply a reminder that there is no good, stable outcome for us outside the EU
November 7, 2025 at 8:47 AM
UK-EU talks are in a bad spot
Simply a reminder that there is no good, stable outcome for us outside the EU
Simply a reminder that there is no good, stable outcome for us outside the EU
Ukraine shouldn't focus too much on Hungary for accession purposes
Orban is a loud-mouth but he mostly backs down when truly isolated (they barely put up a fight on last EU sanctions package)
Better to worry about convincing France, Poland and the Netherlands
Orban is a loud-mouth but he mostly backs down when truly isolated (they barely put up a fight on last EU sanctions package)
Better to worry about convincing France, Poland and the Netherlands
November 7, 2025 at 7:42 AM
Ukraine shouldn't focus too much on Hungary for accession purposes
Orban is a loud-mouth but he mostly backs down when truly isolated (they barely put up a fight on last EU sanctions package)
Better to worry about convincing France, Poland and the Netherlands
Orban is a loud-mouth but he mostly backs down when truly isolated (they barely put up a fight on last EU sanctions package)
Better to worry about convincing France, Poland and the Netherlands
Reposted by Pascal
⚡️ 'She wasn't afraid of the bombs' — Kherson locals in awe over Angelina Jolie's visit.
The visit caused a stir not only in Kherson but across Ukraine, with people eager to learn more her visit to one of the most dangerous parts of the country.
The visit caused a stir not only in Kherson but across Ukraine, with people eager to learn more her visit to one of the most dangerous parts of the country.
'She wasn't afraid of the bombs' — Kherson locals in awe over Angelina Jolie's visit
For Kherson journalist Yevheniia Virlych, “difficult” doesn’t begin to describe day-to-day life in her city — “critical” is closer to the mark. So when American actress Angelina Jolie visited Kherson ...
kyivindependent.com
November 6, 2025 at 3:36 PM
⚡️ 'She wasn't afraid of the bombs' — Kherson locals in awe over Angelina Jolie's visit.
The visit caused a stir not only in Kherson but across Ukraine, with people eager to learn more her visit to one of the most dangerous parts of the country.
The visit caused a stir not only in Kherson but across Ukraine, with people eager to learn more her visit to one of the most dangerous parts of the country.
Reposted by Pascal
Latest blog this week
A few thoughts on the Dutch elections and the risk of getting swept up in the euphoria of the moment
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-dutch-...
A few thoughts on the Dutch elections and the risk of getting swept up in the euphoria of the moment
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-dutch-...
The Dutch elections are not the progressive triumph they seem
A warning against getting ahead of ourselves
pascallth.substack.com
November 4, 2025 at 7:39 AM
Latest blog this week
A few thoughts on the Dutch elections and the risk of getting swept up in the euphoria of the moment
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-dutch-...
A few thoughts on the Dutch elections and the risk of getting swept up in the euphoria of the moment
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-dutch-...
We should ban algorithmic feeds on social media, whose costs far outweigh the advantages
X effect: How Elon Musk is boosting the British right
X effect: How Elon Musk is boosting the British right
Sky's Tom Cheshire explains how Elon Musk's X is boosting the British right.
news.sky.com
November 6, 2025 at 10:17 AM
We should ban algorithmic feeds on social media, whose costs far outweigh the advantages
One reason why we can't bet on Russian economic collapse - there are other powers with a vested interest in avoiding that outcome
Rutte: “Russia is not alone in its efforts to undermine global rules — it is working with China, North Korea, Iran, and others, strengthening defence industrial cooperation to unprecedented levels and preparing for long-term confrontation.
November 6, 2025 at 9:59 AM
One reason why we can't bet on Russian economic collapse - there are other powers with a vested interest in avoiding that outcome
Reposted by Pascal
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte: “The danger posed by Russia will not end when the war in Ukraine ends.
“For the foreseeable future, Russia will remain a destabilizing force in Europe and the world.”
“For the foreseeable future, Russia will remain a destabilizing force in Europe and the world.”
November 6, 2025 at 9:09 AM
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte: “The danger posed by Russia will not end when the war in Ukraine ends.
“For the foreseeable future, Russia will remain a destabilizing force in Europe and the world.”
“For the foreseeable future, Russia will remain a destabilizing force in Europe and the world.”
I think few people other than specialists see the EU as a framework of rules (and many alliances are also frameworks of rules anyway, even if less binding)
International alliance vs community of values is probably the differentiating factor in most cases
International alliance vs community of values is probably the differentiating factor in most cases
I am not a lawyer, just a historian, but one fundamental problem with the political debate about the EU, especially in English publications is that the whole principle of the acquis communnitaire is not understood or taken seriously. The EU is a framework of rules, not an alliance.
November 6, 2025 at 8:54 AM
I think few people other than specialists see the EU as a framework of rules (and many alliances are also frameworks of rules anyway, even if less binding)
International alliance vs community of values is probably the differentiating factor in most cases
International alliance vs community of values is probably the differentiating factor in most cases
In France the political right condensed this contradiction into a single concept they call 'islamo-leftism' - the logical end point of a belief that your opponents are extreme in every way you dislike, ultimately guilty of accepting all 'degenerate' people and beliefs
If you asked me to come up with the names of politicians who are publicly and unapologetically pro-LGBT and pro-trans rights in particular, two of the most obvious would now both be Muslim mayors of major cities. And both are routinely smeared as regards to 'Sharia Law'.
November 5, 2025 at 10:16 PM
In France the political right condensed this contradiction into a single concept they call 'islamo-leftism' - the logical end point of a belief that your opponents are extreme in every way you dislike, ultimately guilty of accepting all 'degenerate' people and beliefs
You might think this is bad for America's outlook but there are self-driving taxis in San Francisco so who can really say
Duffy: "There's going to be a 10% reduction in capacity at 40 of our locations."
November 5, 2025 at 9:35 PM
You might think this is bad for America's outlook but there are self-driving taxis in San Francisco so who can really say
When a democrat starts to lose, they reach out to their critics to win back voters
When autocrats think they might lose - an act they consider inherently illegitimate - the repression increases
When autocrats think they might lose - an act they consider inherently illegitimate - the repression increases
November 5, 2025 at 7:19 AM
When a democrat starts to lose, they reach out to their critics to win back voters
When autocrats think they might lose - an act they consider inherently illegitimate - the repression increases
When autocrats think they might lose - an act they consider inherently illegitimate - the repression increases
A much more realistic assessment of the battle for Pokrovsk than the typical pro-Ukraine accounts, which count only Russian losses as if this were the only factor
The situation is dire and we're lying to ourselves by believing the defense is impregnable
The situation is dire and we're lying to ourselves by believing the defense is impregnable
In Pokrovsk, the front line has vanished. Russian forces have infiltrated the city, with one Ukrainian officer estimating they control 60% of it. Soldiers now face the enemy in the rear, warning of a looming encirclement. Diana Butsko reports from the area.
Is there a risk of encirclement in Pokrovsk and what awaits Myrnohrad? Soldiers explain
“Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad are already f***ed, in short,”
begins the conversation with hromadske pilot Valeriy (name changed at the interlocutor’s request).
He has just left the positions in Pokrovsk, w...
hromadske.ua
November 4, 2025 at 9:32 PM
A much more realistic assessment of the battle for Pokrovsk than the typical pro-Ukraine accounts, which count only Russian losses as if this were the only factor
The situation is dire and we're lying to ourselves by believing the defense is impregnable
The situation is dire and we're lying to ourselves by believing the defense is impregnable
It is really quite important for at least one of these countries to successfully join in the near future
No country has joined the EU since 2013. The EU is losing the practice of enlargement and existing member states are becoming foreign to the concept
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
No country has joined the EU since 2013. The EU is losing the practice of enlargement and existing member states are becoming foreign to the concept
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
EU says it could admit new members by 2030, praises Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine
The European Commission said on Tuesday that the EU could welcome new members as early as 2030 as it praised Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine and Moldova for their progress on reforms needed to join the bloc.
www.reuters.com
November 4, 2025 at 8:25 PM
It is really quite important for at least one of these countries to successfully join in the near future
No country has joined the EU since 2013. The EU is losing the practice of enlargement and existing member states are becoming foreign to the concept
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
No country has joined the EU since 2013. The EU is losing the practice of enlargement and existing member states are becoming foreign to the concept
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
Hungary's election next year is going to be a nightmare of electoral manipulation as Orban pulls every lever to prevent the popular vote from disrupting his hold on power
💥House of Cards stuff from Hungary: Rumors long said Viktor Orbán’s team hides real polls from him showing the opposition TISZA party far ahead. Now TISZA leader Péter Magyar claims Orbán recently learned the truth from his possible successor, Minister János Lázár—and realized he can’t win fairly.
November 4, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Hungary's election next year is going to be a nightmare of electoral manipulation as Orban pulls every lever to prevent the popular vote from disrupting his hold on power
Labour out of the danger zone. Tories still on the precipice
Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 November 2025)
Reform UK: 27% (no change from 26-27 Oct)
Labour: 20% (+3)
Conservatives: 16% (-1)
Greens: 16% (=)
Lib Dems: 15% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
Reform UK: 27% (no change from 26-27 Oct)
Labour: 20% (+3)
Conservatives: 16% (-1)
Greens: 16% (=)
Lib Dems: 15% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
November 4, 2025 at 12:15 PM
Labour out of the danger zone. Tories still on the precipice
Latest blog this week
A few thoughts on the Dutch elections and the risk of getting swept up in the euphoria of the moment
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-dutch-...
A few thoughts on the Dutch elections and the risk of getting swept up in the euphoria of the moment
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-dutch-...
The Dutch elections are not the progressive triumph they seem
A warning against getting ahead of ourselves
pascallth.substack.com
November 4, 2025 at 7:39 AM
Latest blog this week
A few thoughts on the Dutch elections and the risk of getting swept up in the euphoria of the moment
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-dutch-...
A few thoughts on the Dutch elections and the risk of getting swept up in the euphoria of the moment
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-dutch-...
At least someone will say it
www.thetimes.com/world/europe...
www.thetimes.com/world/europe...
November 2, 2025 at 2:32 PM
At least someone will say it
www.thetimes.com/world/europe...
www.thetimes.com/world/europe...
Reposted by Pascal
SUPERINTENDANT JOHN LOVELESS BRITISH TRANSPORT POLICE:
Two arrested
32 year old male, black British national
35 year old male, British national, "of Caribbean descent"
Both were born in the UK
4 of those attacked discharged
Two arrested
32 year old male, black British national
35 year old male, British national, "of Caribbean descent"
Both were born in the UK
4 of those attacked discharged
November 2, 2025 at 11:06 AM
SUPERINTENDANT JOHN LOVELESS BRITISH TRANSPORT POLICE:
Two arrested
32 year old male, black British national
35 year old male, British national, "of Caribbean descent"
Both were born in the UK
4 of those attacked discharged
Two arrested
32 year old male, black British national
35 year old male, British national, "of Caribbean descent"
Both were born in the UK
4 of those attacked discharged