Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social
Let's see what comes of this but a serious plan will be pre-emptive, not reactive
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
European allies working on plan should US move on Greenland
Allies including France and Germany are working closely on a plan on how to respond should the United States act on its threat to take over Greenland, as Europe seeks to address U.S. President Donald ...
www.reuters.com
January 7, 2026 at 2:29 PM
Let's see what comes of this but a serious plan will be pre-emptive, not reactive
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
Still don't think we should take these stats as a reassurance
The willingness to throw away so many lives for even minor gains suggests that it is very difficult to convince Russia to stop fighting this war and that our efforts have to be all the greater in order to make that happen
The willingness to throw away so many lives for even minor gains suggests that it is very difficult to convince Russia to stop fighting this war and that our efforts have to be all the greater in order to make that happen
Russia's slow advances in Ukraine come at an enormous human cost
• Between 1m and 1.35m Russian soldiers could have been killed or wounded in the war so far
• Data mean that around 1% of Russia’s pre-war male population of fighting age may have died in Ukraine
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
• Between 1m and 1.35m Russian soldiers could have been killed or wounded in the war so far
• Data mean that around 1% of Russia’s pre-war male population of fighting age may have died in Ukraine
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
January 7, 2026 at 8:32 AM
Still don't think we should take these stats as a reassurance
The willingness to throw away so many lives for even minor gains suggests that it is very difficult to convince Russia to stop fighting this war and that our efforts have to be all the greater in order to make that happen
The willingness to throw away so many lives for even minor gains suggests that it is very difficult to convince Russia to stop fighting this war and that our efforts have to be all the greater in order to make that happen
Reposted by Pascal
What would Greenlanders want?
The latest available opinion poll: 85 % says "No" to the question "Do you want Greenland to exit the Danish Kingdom and instead become part of United States?"
The poll (www.veriangroup.com/da/news-and-...) also show that a small majority supports independence from DK
The latest available opinion poll: 85 % says "No" to the question "Do you want Greenland to exit the Danish Kingdom and instead become part of United States?"
The poll (www.veriangroup.com/da/news-and-...) also show that a small majority supports independence from DK
January 7, 2026 at 7:34 AM
What would Greenlanders want?
The latest available opinion poll: 85 % says "No" to the question "Do you want Greenland to exit the Danish Kingdom and instead become part of United States?"
The poll (www.veriangroup.com/da/news-and-...) also show that a small majority supports independence from DK
The latest available opinion poll: 85 % says "No" to the question "Do you want Greenland to exit the Danish Kingdom and instead become part of United States?"
The poll (www.veriangroup.com/da/news-and-...) also show that a small majority supports independence from DK
When it comes to Venezuela, we can't reverse or punish the intervention, but we can limit the gains felt by the US
Oil trade is part of that
pascallth.substack.com/p/europe-can...
Oil trade is part of that
pascallth.substack.com/p/europe-can...
January 7, 2026 at 6:41 AM
When it comes to Venezuela, we can't reverse or punish the intervention, but we can limit the gains felt by the US
Oil trade is part of that
pascallth.substack.com/p/europe-can...
Oil trade is part of that
pascallth.substack.com/p/europe-can...
This is progress but we need to see the details on numbers and where they will be deployed
A training force out in Lviv won't be an effective deterrent
A training force out in Lviv won't be an effective deterrent
BREAKING: UK and France sign formal declaration of intent to put boots on ground in Ukraine in event of peace deal with Russia.
They would "operate on Ukrainian soil, securing Ukraine’s skies and seas and building an armed forces fit for the future".
They would "operate on Ukrainian soil, securing Ukraine’s skies and seas and building an armed forces fit for the future".
January 6, 2026 at 7:44 PM
This is progress but we need to see the details on numbers and where they will be deployed
A training force out in Lviv won't be an effective deterrent
A training force out in Lviv won't be an effective deterrent
Reposted by Pascal
Europe can't reverse events in Venezuela or force a new reality on the ground, but we can limit the gains perceived by the US from this intervention. That way we can protect support for Ukraine and still defend international law
pascallth.substack.com/p/europe-can...
pascallth.substack.com/p/europe-can...
January 6, 2026 at 8:05 AM
Europe can't reverse events in Venezuela or force a new reality on the ground, but we can limit the gains perceived by the US from this intervention. That way we can protect support for Ukraine and still defend international law
pascallth.substack.com/p/europe-can...
pascallth.substack.com/p/europe-can...
This is a good start. It would be better to station some European troops in Greenland so that American voters start to see the full folly of trying to force the issue
Joint Statement of major EU/NATO countries on Greenland, together with Denmark:
January 6, 2026 at 12:56 PM
This is a good start. It would be better to station some European troops in Greenland so that American voters start to see the full folly of trying to force the issue
Historically this isn't true and the principle of non-intervention in sovereign states predates the global spread of democracy
We may wish to now redefine this settlement but a) most of the world would reject it and b) is it good to give a pass for autocracies to interfere in other autocracies?
We may wish to now redefine this settlement but a) most of the world would reject it and b) is it good to give a pass for autocracies to interfere in other autocracies?
Some interesting uses of “sovereignty” being thrown around re Maduro. Dictatorships have no sovereignty and no right to rule. That doesn’t mean Venezuela itself has no sovereignty - its people hold that, and a government chosen by them democratically would embody it.
January 6, 2026 at 9:44 AM
Historically this isn't true and the principle of non-intervention in sovereign states predates the global spread of democracy
We may wish to now redefine this settlement but a) most of the world would reject it and b) is it good to give a pass for autocracies to interfere in other autocracies?
We may wish to now redefine this settlement but a) most of the world would reject it and b) is it good to give a pass for autocracies to interfere in other autocracies?
Europe can't reverse events in Venezuela or force a new reality on the ground, but we can limit the gains perceived by the US from this intervention. That way we can protect support for Ukraine and still defend international law
pascallth.substack.com/p/europe-can...
pascallth.substack.com/p/europe-can...
January 6, 2026 at 8:05 AM
Europe can't reverse events in Venezuela or force a new reality on the ground, but we can limit the gains perceived by the US from this intervention. That way we can protect support for Ukraine and still defend international law
pascallth.substack.com/p/europe-can...
pascallth.substack.com/p/europe-can...
Europe is limited in how it can respond to events in Venezuela, but we are not powerless and inaction is not wisdom. Yes, let's carefully protect our interests, but on a full assessment of what our interests actually are
My latest:
pascallth.substack.com/p/europe-can...
My latest:
pascallth.substack.com/p/europe-can...
Europe can only defend its interests
Thoughts on Venezuela
pascallth.substack.com
January 5, 2026 at 8:36 PM
Europe is limited in how it can respond to events in Venezuela, but we are not powerless and inaction is not wisdom. Yes, let's carefully protect our interests, but on a full assessment of what our interests actually are
My latest:
pascallth.substack.com/p/europe-can...
My latest:
pascallth.substack.com/p/europe-can...
Managing Trump, no matter how well we may have done it, has not actually helped us adjust to this new world, and has probably hindered us
pascallth.substack.com/p/trump-appe...
pascallth.substack.com/p/trump-appe...
January 5, 2026 at 10:29 AM
Managing Trump, no matter how well we may have done it, has not actually helped us adjust to this new world, and has probably hindered us
pascallth.substack.com/p/trump-appe...
pascallth.substack.com/p/trump-appe...
Well they said they were against bringing freedom and democracy to other countries and, in their defence, Venezuela isn't getting any of that
amazing how the entire machine can pivot within 24 hours. no need to slowly upsell the argument; just issue new marching orders
January 5, 2026 at 7:34 AM
Well they said they were against bringing freedom and democracy to other countries and, in their defence, Venezuela isn't getting any of that
The highly defensible/hard to object to demand that should be coming from every European politician now is a rapid timeline for free and fair elections in Venezuela
The government’s had 24 hours to agree a line on this. There are obviously diplomatic reasons they might not condemn things as forcefully as many of us would like.
But this weird “we respect international law but won’t say anything further” line is nonsensical and cannot hold.
But this weird “we respect international law but won’t say anything further” line is nonsensical and cannot hold.
January 4, 2026 at 10:21 AM
The highly defensible/hard to object to demand that should be coming from every European politician now is a rapid timeline for free and fair elections in Venezuela
Reposted by Pascal
⚡️Peace deal must include British, French military presence in Ukraine, Zelensky says.
Peace deal must include British, French military presence in Ukraine, Zelensky says
Any future security guarantees for Ukraine must include the physical presence of foreign troops on Ukrainian territory, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Jan. 3, stressing that forces from France a...
kyivindependent.com
January 3, 2026 at 10:44 PM
⚡️Peace deal must include British, French military presence in Ukraine, Zelensky says.
The European response to US intervention in Venezuela is a reminder that until we have an independent European defence industry, no country in Europe is sovereign
January 3, 2026 at 7:57 PM
The European response to US intervention in Venezuela is a reminder that until we have an independent European defence industry, no country in Europe is sovereign
Russia and China will be considering what precedents have been set for behaviour that they can get away with
January 3, 2026 at 11:06 AM
Russia and China will be considering what precedents have been set for behaviour that they can get away with
Another time to deploy my 'can't rejoin' post
TL;DR the process of rejoining and the process of becoming ready to rejoin are actually the same thing, so it makes no sense to rule out the first on the basis that the second is not complete
pascallth.substack.com/p/can-the-uk...
TL;DR the process of rejoining and the process of becoming ready to rejoin are actually the same thing, so it makes no sense to rule out the first on the basis that the second is not complete
pascallth.substack.com/p/can-the-uk...
January 3, 2026 at 10:24 AM
Another time to deploy my 'can't rejoin' post
TL;DR the process of rejoining and the process of becoming ready to rejoin are actually the same thing, so it makes no sense to rule out the first on the basis that the second is not complete
pascallth.substack.com/p/can-the-uk...
TL;DR the process of rejoining and the process of becoming ready to rejoin are actually the same thing, so it makes no sense to rule out the first on the basis that the second is not complete
pascallth.substack.com/p/can-the-uk...
Reposted by Pascal
BREAKING: President Trump says President Maduro of Venezuela and his wife have been captured and flown out of the country.
January 3, 2026 at 9:32 AM
BREAKING: President Trump says President Maduro of Venezuela and his wife have been captured and flown out of the country.
Reposted by Pascal
BREAKING: Residents in the Venezuelan capital of Caracas reported loud explosions and aircraft overflying the city in the early hours of Saturday morning, with multiples areas experiencing power outages
Caracas Residents Report Loud Explosions, Aircraft Overflying
Residents in the Venezuelan capital of Caracas reported loud explosions and aircraft overflying the city, with multiple areas experiencing power outages.
bloom.bg
January 3, 2026 at 6:52 AM
BREAKING: Residents in the Venezuelan capital of Caracas reported loud explosions and aircraft overflying the city in the early hours of Saturday morning, with multiples areas experiencing power outages
We can be almost certain this is true given it's what Russia just attempted with the claim of an attack on Putin's residence
Ukraine’s foreign intelligence service has warned that the Kremlin is likely to carry out a false flag attack inside Russia or inside the Ukrainian territories it illegally occupies to derail peace talks mediated by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Ukraine warns Putin plans false flag attack inside Russia to derail peace talks
Ukraine’s secret service warns of a staged high-casualty attack, potentially targeting a church in the run-up to Russian Orthodox Christmas.
www.politico.eu
January 2, 2026 at 12:33 PM
We can be almost certain this is true given it's what Russia just attempted with the claim of an attack on Putin's residence
I'd be interested to know what has driven this shift in Spain, which is pretty major
A counter-reaction to Trump?
A counter-reaction to Trump?
Where do Europeans stand on the Ukraine war at the end of 2025?
% in each country who say they want Ukraine to win, and care that it does so
🇬🇧 70% (+3 from Mar)
🇪🇸 66% (+9)
🇵🇱 65% (new)
🇩🇪 54% (+2)
🇫🇷 40% (-10)
🇮🇹 33% (-1)
(Only 1-7% say same for Russia)
yougov.co.uk/internationa...
% in each country who say they want Ukraine to win, and care that it does so
🇬🇧 70% (+3 from Mar)
🇪🇸 66% (+9)
🇵🇱 65% (new)
🇩🇪 54% (+2)
🇫🇷 40% (-10)
🇮🇹 33% (-1)
(Only 1-7% say same for Russia)
yougov.co.uk/internationa...
January 2, 2026 at 9:20 AM
I'd be interested to know what has driven this shift in Spain, which is pretty major
A counter-reaction to Trump?
A counter-reaction to Trump?
Old enough to remember when the United States government sanctioned European citizens for the crime of promoting the regulation of these platforms
so x dot com’s ai generated CSAM and they admitted it may violate US law and … i haven’t seen in anyone in power say much at all or call to stop using the platform
January 2, 2026 at 8:53 AM
Old enough to remember when the United States government sanctioned European citizens for the crime of promoting the regulation of these platforms
Reposted by Pascal
Happy 40th anniversary of EEC accession to Spain and Portugal. A resounding success story not just for Iberia but for Europe as a whole 🇪🇸🇵🇹🇪🇺
Hace 40 años España entró en las Comunidades Europeas. Reforzábamos Europa y Europa nos dio solidaridad y progreso.
Hoy, una España fuerte y democrática supone una Europa fuerte y democrática. Por eso, trabajamos por una Europa unida, potente y que dé un salto de soberanía.
Hoy, una España fuerte y democrática supone una Europa fuerte y democrática. Por eso, trabajamos por una Europa unida, potente y que dé un salto de soberanía.
January 1, 2026 at 11:48 AM
Happy 40th anniversary of EEC accession to Spain and Portugal. A resounding success story not just for Iberia but for Europe as a whole 🇪🇸🇵🇹🇪🇺
Happy new year - may 2026 be the year Russia is driven out of Europe 🇪🇺🇺🇦
January 1, 2026 at 12:27 AM
Happy new year - may 2026 be the year Russia is driven out of Europe 🇪🇺🇺🇦
Reposted by Pascal
It's official: Bulgaria is in the euro-zone.
An excerpt from an atypically emotional NYE address by the Central Bank governor:
"Thank you, friends. We are home.
This is not a protocol. It is a feeling.
In this sense, the euro is not just an economic solution...
www.bnb.bg/AboutUs/Pres...
An excerpt from an atypically emotional NYE address by the Central Bank governor:
"Thank you, friends. We are home.
This is not a protocol. It is a feeling.
In this sense, the euro is not just an economic solution...
www.bnb.bg/AboutUs/Pres...
December 31, 2025 at 11:30 PM
It's official: Bulgaria is in the euro-zone.
An excerpt from an atypically emotional NYE address by the Central Bank governor:
"Thank you, friends. We are home.
This is not a protocol. It is a feeling.
In this sense, the euro is not just an economic solution...
www.bnb.bg/AboutUs/Pres...
An excerpt from an atypically emotional NYE address by the Central Bank governor:
"Thank you, friends. We are home.
This is not a protocol. It is a feeling.
In this sense, the euro is not just an economic solution...
www.bnb.bg/AboutUs/Pres...