Agathe Demarais
@agathedemarais.bsky.social
Geoeconomics @ecfr.eu • Visiting prof @collegeofeurope.bsky.social
Columnist @foreignpolicy.com • Author, Backfire @columbiaup.bsky.social
Global economy, trade wars, economic statecraft, vaccines
📬 agathe.demarais@ecfr.eu | 🖥️ agathedemarais.com | 📮open
Columnist @foreignpolicy.com • Author, Backfire @columbiaup.bsky.social
Global economy, trade wars, economic statecraft, vaccines
📬 agathe.demarais@ecfr.eu | 🖥️ agathedemarais.com | 📮open
Pinned
Ride the wave: A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics
The US president is throwing the EU lots of economic curveballs. Brussels should not be distracted by these; instead, it should double down on adopting measures that will benefit the bloc long after…
ecfr.eu
Which data points are the most useful to understand US-EU relations in the trade, investment and financial fields—and what do these data tell us about the impact of Trumponomics 2.0 on Europe? Here's a selection of 12 charts from my new @ecfr.eu policy brief 👇 [🧵 Thread]
ecfr.eu/publication/...
ecfr.eu/publication/...
Tariffs are not fuelling a US manufacturing revival
• Manufacturing sector created jobs for last time in March this year, ahead of Liberation Day
• Since Trump's tariff salvoes, manufacturing firms slashed headcounts in each month, by around 70k people in total
www.ft.com/content/17a1...
• Manufacturing sector created jobs for last time in March this year, ahead of Liberation Day
• Since Trump's tariff salvoes, manufacturing firms slashed headcounts in each month, by around 70k people in total
www.ft.com/content/17a1...
January 6, 2026 at 4:03 PM
Tariffs are not fuelling a US manufacturing revival
• Manufacturing sector created jobs for last time in March this year, ahead of Liberation Day
• Since Trump's tariff salvoes, manufacturing firms slashed headcounts in each month, by around 70k people in total
www.ft.com/content/17a1...
• Manufacturing sector created jobs for last time in March this year, ahead of Liberation Day
• Since Trump's tariff salvoes, manufacturing firms slashed headcounts in each month, by around 70k people in total
www.ft.com/content/17a1...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Venezuela: "We get down to the issue of whether Trump is going to try to favour, encourage U.S.-based financial service (companies) rather than the hedge funds that are in London," said senior fellow for Latin America at Chatham House Christopher Sabatini." www.reuters.com/business/fin...
Venezuela debt rally belies complex creditor web, political quagmire
After nearly a decade of default limbo, the U.S. removal of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro has turned debt restructuring from a distant hope into a real possibility for bondholders, fuelling a rally in it...
www.reuters.com
January 6, 2026 at 12:26 PM
Venezuela: "We get down to the issue of whether Trump is going to try to favour, encourage U.S.-based financial service (companies) rather than the hedge funds that are in London," said senior fellow for Latin America at Chatham House Christopher Sabatini." www.reuters.com/business/fin...
Despite Kremlin's bombastic claims, Russia's economy is far from booming
• War and subsidies-fuelled growth could only last for a while and civilian economy is probably in recession
• Kremlin never expected Ukraine war effort would last for so long and come at such price
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
• War and subsidies-fuelled growth could only last for a while and civilian economy is probably in recession
• Kremlin never expected Ukraine war effort would last for so long and come at such price
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
January 6, 2026 at 11:01 AM
Despite Kremlin's bombastic claims, Russia's economy is far from booming
• War and subsidies-fuelled growth could only last for a while and civilian economy is probably in recession
• Kremlin never expected Ukraine war effort would last for so long and come at such price
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
• War and subsidies-fuelled growth could only last for a while and civilian economy is probably in recession
• Kremlin never expected Ukraine war effort would last for so long and come at such price
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
" #Trump ’s superpower flex in #Venezuela delivers a humbling blow to #Putin ’s #Russia"
www.politico.eu/article/dona...
www.politico.eu/article/dona...
Trump’s superpower flex in Venezuela delivers a humbling blow to Putin’s Russia
President Putin has proved a useless ally to deposed Venezuelan leader Maduro, but the humiliation runs deeper: The U.S, president’s real global superpower reach is turning the Kremlin green …
www.politico.eu
January 6, 2026 at 8:22 AM
" #Trump ’s superpower flex in #Venezuela delivers a humbling blow to #Putin ’s #Russia"
www.politico.eu/article/dona...
www.politico.eu/article/dona...
Trump's bet on Venezuelan oil will require massive investments on the ground
• Bringing country’s output back to where it was 15 years ago would require US$110bn in investments
• This is twice the amount that America’s oil majors combined invested worldwide in 2024
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
• Bringing country’s output back to where it was 15 years ago would require US$110bn in investments
• This is twice the amount that America’s oil majors combined invested worldwide in 2024
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
January 6, 2026 at 8:01 AM
Trump's bet on Venezuelan oil will require massive investments on the ground
• Bringing country’s output back to where it was 15 years ago would require US$110bn in investments
• This is twice the amount that America’s oil majors combined invested worldwide in 2024
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
• Bringing country’s output back to where it was 15 years ago would require US$110bn in investments
• This is twice the amount that America’s oil majors combined invested worldwide in 2024
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Europe's far-right voters like Trump more than others, but they are far from fans
• Only 25-30% of far-right voters in France and Germany have favourable view of Trump
• UK far-right voters are far more enthused, with nearly half of them having positive view of Trump
www.politico.eu/article/poli...
• Only 25-30% of far-right voters in France and Germany have favourable view of Trump
• UK far-right voters are far more enthused, with nearly half of them having positive view of Trump
www.politico.eu/article/poli...
January 5, 2026 at 4:01 PM
Europe's far-right voters like Trump more than others, but they are far from fans
• Only 25-30% of far-right voters in France and Germany have favourable view of Trump
• UK far-right voters are far more enthused, with nearly half of them having positive view of Trump
www.politico.eu/article/poli...
• Only 25-30% of far-right voters in France and Germany have favourable view of Trump
• UK far-right voters are far more enthused, with nearly half of them having positive view of Trump
www.politico.eu/article/poli...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
1/Leaders are abducted/allies are threatened but pundits and governments are scratching their heads on what the US is doing. Danish PM on Greenland "It makes absolutely no sense". Why? Because actors using old IR models when we need a new lens. Enter neo-royalism.
abcnews.go.com/Internationa...
abcnews.go.com/Internationa...
Denmark's PM urges Trump to 'stop the threats' of annexing Greenland
The prime minister of Denmark called on Trump to “stop the threats” of the U.S. annexing Greenland after renewed comments garnered international attention.
abcnews.go.com
January 5, 2026 at 1:24 PM
1/Leaders are abducted/allies are threatened but pundits and governments are scratching their heads on what the US is doing. Danish PM on Greenland "It makes absolutely no sense". Why? Because actors using old IR models when we need a new lens. Enter neo-royalism.
abcnews.go.com/Internationa...
abcnews.go.com/Internationa...
Russian threats to confiscate western assets may explain EU's reluctance to seize Moscow's central bank assets
• Austria's Raiffeisen and Italy's Unicredit maintain large presence in Russia
• Giving Moscow impression that blackmail is effective may not be best strategy
www.ft.com/content/616d...
• Austria's Raiffeisen and Italy's Unicredit maintain large presence in Russia
• Giving Moscow impression that blackmail is effective may not be best strategy
www.ft.com/content/616d...
January 5, 2026 at 11:01 AM
Russian threats to confiscate western assets may explain EU's reluctance to seize Moscow's central bank assets
• Austria's Raiffeisen and Italy's Unicredit maintain large presence in Russia
• Giving Moscow impression that blackmail is effective may not be best strategy
www.ft.com/content/616d...
• Austria's Raiffeisen and Italy's Unicredit maintain large presence in Russia
• Giving Moscow impression that blackmail is effective may not be best strategy
www.ft.com/content/616d...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
This year, the EU faces a difficult balancing act as it wants to enforce its digital rules without provoking Trump into siding with Russia on Ukraine.
"You’re just a little bit more quiet perhaps than you otherwise would be” said Fiona Scott Morton.
www.ft.com/content/ca6f...
"You’re just a little bit more quiet perhaps than you otherwise would be” said Fiona Scott Morton.
www.ft.com/content/ca6f...
EU readies tougher tech enforcement in 2026 as Trump warns of retaliation
Challenges to Google, Meta, Apple and X will test Brussels’ willingness to stick with digital rule book
www.ft.com
January 5, 2026 at 9:26 AM
This year, the EU faces a difficult balancing act as it wants to enforce its digital rules without provoking Trump into siding with Russia on Ukraine.
"You’re just a little bit more quiet perhaps than you otherwise would be” said Fiona Scott Morton.
www.ft.com/content/ca6f...
"You’re just a little bit more quiet perhaps than you otherwise would be” said Fiona Scott Morton.
www.ft.com/content/ca6f...
What's next for transatlantic tensions? In my short 2026 lookahead for @foreignpolicy.com I outline how the EU will have ample opportunity to refine its Trump management playbook this year with flashpoints around Ukraine, digital rules and America's G20 presidency
6 Trump Lessons for Global Leaders in 2026
FP columnists on how the world could handle the new Washington.
foreignpolicy.com
January 5, 2026 at 8:00 AM
What's next for transatlantic tensions? In my short 2026 lookahead for @foreignpolicy.com I outline how the EU will have ample opportunity to refine its Trump management playbook this year with flashpoints around Ukraine, digital rules and America's G20 presidency
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
What can we make of the EU decision to issue a €90bn loan to Ukraine - without tapping into Russia's immobilised reserves? In my latest piece for @ecfr.eu I outline seven takeaways from the decision and why there is (much) more to it than meets the eye [Thread - 1/9]
ecfr.eu/article/seve...
ecfr.eu/article/seve...
Seven things to know about the EU’s €90bn loan to Ukraine – European Council on Foreign Relations
Ukraine receives a vital lifeline, but it is not coming from immobilised Russian reserves.
ecfr.eu
December 19, 2025 at 4:05 PM
What can we make of the EU decision to issue a €90bn loan to Ukraine - without tapping into Russia's immobilised reserves? In my latest piece for @ecfr.eu I outline seven takeaways from the decision and why there is (much) more to it than meets the eye [Thread - 1/9]
ecfr.eu/article/seve...
ecfr.eu/article/seve...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Fabulous thread. The EU is currently a more coherent and effective political actor than the US and its Kremlin friends are getting sidelined
What can we make of the EU decision to issue a €90bn loan to Ukraine - without tapping into Russia's immobilised reserves? In my latest piece for @ecfr.eu I outline seven takeaways from the decision and why there is (much) more to it than meets the eye [Thread - 1/9]
ecfr.eu/article/seve...
ecfr.eu/article/seve...
Seven things to know about the EU’s €90bn loan to Ukraine – European Council on Foreign Relations
Ukraine receives a vital lifeline, but it is not coming from immobilised Russian reserves.
ecfr.eu
December 19, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Fabulous thread. The EU is currently a more coherent and effective political actor than the US and its Kremlin friends are getting sidelined
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
A few quick thoughts about this morning's decision. Don't believe the spin from various Russians & others: it's a big deal. The EU has now unambiguously demonstrated that it is able and willing to provide the external financial support Ukraine needs, for as long and as much as it takes. (1/N)
December 19, 2025 at 10:31 AM
A few quick thoughts about this morning's decision. Don't believe the spin from various Russians & others: it's a big deal. The EU has now unambiguously demonstrated that it is able and willing to provide the external financial support Ukraine needs, for as long and as much as it takes. (1/N)
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Seven important observations on the EU meeting regarding Ukraine and Russia's frozen assets, by @agathedemarais.bsky.social
Seven things to know about the EU’s €90bn loan to Ukraine – European Council on Foreign Relations
Ukraine receives a vital lifeline, but it is not coming from immobilised Russian reserves.
ecfr.eu
December 19, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Seven important observations on the EU meeting regarding Ukraine and Russia's frozen assets, by @agathedemarais.bsky.social
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Great analysis of EU/Ukraine deal. EU got the job done for now. Maybe even planted seeds of innovation around European debt. But Ukraine will need lots more $ (or euros), Russian threats paid off, and the US still lurking to snatch and grab frozen assets.
I'd say this is possible, yetmy glass-half-full view is that the EU's ability to create coalitions of the willing for some topics is, on balance, a net positive (plus the three countries in question are small economies, so their share of the loan would be small anyway?)
bsky.app/profile/agat...
bsky.app/profile/agat...
What can we make of the EU decision to issue a €90bn loan to Ukraine - without tapping into Russia's immobilised reserves? In my latest piece for @ecfr.eu I outline seven takeaways from the decision and why there is (much) more to it than meets the eye [Thread - 1/9]
ecfr.eu/article/seve...
ecfr.eu/article/seve...
December 19, 2025 at 5:08 PM
Great analysis of EU/Ukraine deal. EU got the job done for now. Maybe even planted seeds of innovation around European debt. But Ukraine will need lots more $ (or euros), Russian threats paid off, and the US still lurking to snatch and grab frozen assets.
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
What to make of the EU’s €90bn loan to Ukraine? @agathedemarais.bsky.social's 7-point analysis is the definitive assessment (point number 6 surely being the most transformative).
ecfr.eu/article/seve...
ecfr.eu/article/seve...
Seven things to know about the EU’s €90bn loan to Ukraine – European Council on Foreign Relations
Ukraine receives a vital lifeline, but it is not coming from immobilised Russian reserves.
ecfr.eu
December 19, 2025 at 4:15 PM
What to make of the EU’s €90bn loan to Ukraine? @agathedemarais.bsky.social's 7-point analysis is the definitive assessment (point number 6 surely being the most transformative).
ecfr.eu/article/seve...
ecfr.eu/article/seve...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
The EU never gets praise even when it acts. There is so much constant EU negging that commentators struggle to praise when it delivers. The EU did what it needed to do. Take the win.
Last night was a big step for Ukraine and the European project.
First, the EU got the money for Ukraine 1/
Last night was a big step for Ukraine and the European project.
First, the EU got the money for Ukraine 1/
December 19, 2025 at 1:25 PM
The EU never gets praise even when it acts. There is so much constant EU negging that commentators struggle to praise when it delivers. The EU did what it needed to do. Take the win.
Last night was a big step for Ukraine and the European project.
First, the EU got the money for Ukraine 1/
Last night was a big step for Ukraine and the European project.
First, the EU got the money for Ukraine 1/
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
What to make of the EU decision on funding for Ukraine? It is a good outcome in my opinion. Here is why:
December 19, 2025 at 4:12 PM
What to make of the EU decision on funding for Ukraine? It is a good outcome in my opinion. Here is why:
What can we make of the EU decision to issue a €90bn loan to Ukraine - without tapping into Russia's immobilised reserves? In my latest piece for @ecfr.eu I outline seven takeaways from the decision and why there is (much) more to it than meets the eye [Thread - 1/9]
ecfr.eu/article/seve...
ecfr.eu/article/seve...
Seven things to know about the EU’s €90bn loan to Ukraine – European Council on Foreign Relations
Ukraine receives a vital lifeline, but it is not coming from immobilised Russian reserves.
ecfr.eu
December 19, 2025 at 4:05 PM
What can we make of the EU decision to issue a €90bn loan to Ukraine - without tapping into Russia's immobilised reserves? In my latest piece for @ecfr.eu I outline seven takeaways from the decision and why there is (much) more to it than meets the eye [Thread - 1/9]
ecfr.eu/article/seve...
ecfr.eu/article/seve...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
1/Just back from Japan and a few thoughts about the alliance and economic security. First, there is a thirst for work on economic security that is pretty much unparalleled.
japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/society/gene...
japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/society/gene...
Abraham Newman of Georgetown University Speaks on “Weaponized Global Networks” as Economic Security Global Forum Weeks Head Toward Conclusion
<p>A symposium on “Surviving the Age of Weaponized Global Networks” was held in Tokyo on Tuesday as the Economic Security Global Forum Weeks moves toward its close this weekend.</p>
japannews.yomiuri.co.jp
December 19, 2025 at 1:24 PM
1/Just back from Japan and a few thoughts about the alliance and economic security. First, there is a thirst for work on economic security that is pretty much unparalleled.
japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/society/gene...
japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/society/gene...
Chinese investment and retail sales continued to drop in November
• Data will support global calls for China to do more to stimulate domestic demand
• IMF is also calling on Beijing to fight against deflation, which boosts competitiveness of Chinese exports
www.ft.com/content/2f3d...
• Data will support global calls for China to do more to stimulate domestic demand
• IMF is also calling on Beijing to fight against deflation, which boosts competitiveness of Chinese exports
www.ft.com/content/2f3d...
December 19, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Chinese investment and retail sales continued to drop in November
• Data will support global calls for China to do more to stimulate domestic demand
• IMF is also calling on Beijing to fight against deflation, which boosts competitiveness of Chinese exports
www.ft.com/content/2f3d...
• Data will support global calls for China to do more to stimulate domestic demand
• IMF is also calling on Beijing to fight against deflation, which boosts competitiveness of Chinese exports
www.ft.com/content/2f3d...
KAL's cartoon in The Economist this week
December 19, 2025 at 8:00 AM
KAL's cartoon in The Economist this week
Today looks like a good day to repost my column for @foreignpolicy.com on why Trump has his eyes set on US$300bn in Russia's immobilised reserves and how the EU can act (today) to put them out of his reach
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
The U.S.-Russia Plan Gives Trump a $300 Billion Signing Bonus
If Europe moves fast to seize Russian assets, it may be able to sink this bad deal.
foreignpolicy.com
December 18, 2025 at 4:57 PM
Today looks like a good day to repost my column for @foreignpolicy.com on why Trump has his eyes set on US$300bn in Russia's immobilised reserves and how the EU can act (today) to put them out of his reach
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
D-Day for Europe to shore up Ukraine funding.
As EU leaders huddle in Brussels, Stephen Paduano and I analyse the reparations loan in a new piece.
This is not only a "There Is No Alternative" (TINA) moment—but the financial and legal risks are also manageable.
1/
www.cer.eu/insights/ukr...
As EU leaders huddle in Brussels, Stephen Paduano and I analyse the reparations loan in a new piece.
This is not only a "There Is No Alternative" (TINA) moment—but the financial and legal risks are also manageable.
1/
www.cer.eu/insights/ukr...
The Ukraine Reparations Loan: How to fix Europe's financial plumbing
As US support for Ukraine vanishes, Europe must overcome Belgian opposition and improvise fiscally to provide Kyiv with €210 billion.
www.cer.eu
December 18, 2025 at 1:19 PM
D-Day for Europe to shore up Ukraine funding.
As EU leaders huddle in Brussels, Stephen Paduano and I analyse the reparations loan in a new piece.
This is not only a "There Is No Alternative" (TINA) moment—but the financial and legal risks are also manageable.
1/
www.cer.eu/insights/ukr...
As EU leaders huddle in Brussels, Stephen Paduano and I analyse the reparations loan in a new piece.
This is not only a "There Is No Alternative" (TINA) moment—but the financial and legal risks are also manageable.
1/
www.cer.eu/insights/ukr...
The EU-Mercosur deal is not about economics, but about geopolitics - today looks like a good day to re-up this @ecfr.eu piece on the geopolitical case for the agreement
The bigger picture: The case for an EU-Mercosur free trade deal | ECFR
Deepening ties with Mercosur countries makes perfect sense as part of the EU’s de-risking efforts to diversify economic ties away from China. Further delays in signing a free trade deal would push…
ecfr.eu
December 18, 2025 at 11:01 AM
The EU-Mercosur deal is not about economics, but about geopolitics - today looks like a good day to re-up this @ecfr.eu piece on the geopolitical case for the agreement