Agathe Demarais
@agathedemarais.bsky.social
Geoeconomics @ecfr.eu • Visiting prof @collegeofeurope.bsky.social
Columnist @foreignpolicy.com • Author, Backfire @columbiaup.bsky.social
Global economy, trade wars, economic statecraft, vaccines
📬 agathe.demarais@ecfr.eu | 🖥️ agathedemarais.com | 📮open
Columnist @foreignpolicy.com • Author, Backfire @columbiaup.bsky.social
Global economy, trade wars, economic statecraft, vaccines
📬 agathe.demarais@ecfr.eu | 🖥️ agathedemarais.com | 📮open
Pinned
Ride the wave: A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics
The US president is throwing the EU lots of economic curveballs. Brussels should not be distracted by these; instead, it should double down on adopting measures that will benefit the bloc long after…
ecfr.eu
Which data points are the most useful to understand US-EU relations in the trade, investment and financial fields—and what do these data tell us about the impact of Trumponomics 2.0 on Europe? Here's a selection of 12 charts from my new @ecfr.eu policy brief 👇 [🧵 Thread]
ecfr.eu/publication/...
ecfr.eu/publication/...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
A president who is cutting foreign aid to the world’s poorest countries is committing $20 billion to rescue Argentina from its fiscal irresponsibility. This looks like an Argentina First foreign policy and it isn’t motivated by US national security interests. wapo.st/49bKyew
Opinion | Trump’s incoherent foreign policy defies explanation
Many MAGA loyalists don’t bat an eye as Trump mediates conflicts while also saber-rattling.
wapo.st
November 10, 2025 at 10:35 PM
A president who is cutting foreign aid to the world’s poorest countries is committing $20 billion to rescue Argentina from its fiscal irresponsibility. This looks like an Argentina First foreign policy and it isn’t motivated by US national security interests. wapo.st/49bKyew
US tariff announcements have been akin to rollercoaster ride throughout 2025
• Such permanent twists and turns are worst-case scenario for private firms, which crave predictability
• Constant changes in US tariff rates mean effective implementation of customs duties on US side is difficult
• Such permanent twists and turns are worst-case scenario for private firms, which crave predictability
• Constant changes in US tariff rates mean effective implementation of customs duties on US side is difficult
November 11, 2025 at 11:01 AM
US tariff announcements have been akin to rollercoaster ride throughout 2025
• Such permanent twists and turns are worst-case scenario for private firms, which crave predictability
• Constant changes in US tariff rates mean effective implementation of customs duties on US side is difficult
• Such permanent twists and turns are worst-case scenario for private firms, which crave predictability
• Constant changes in US tariff rates mean effective implementation of customs duties on US side is difficult
Growth in renewable energy means number of hours of negative electricity pricing is rising globally
• When supply exceeds demand, some grid operators pay consumers to take their power
• In some Australian places rate of negative pricing is ~25%; Canberra considering creating free power hours
• When supply exceeds demand, some grid operators pay consumers to take their power
• In some Australian places rate of negative pricing is ~25%; Canberra considering creating free power hours
November 11, 2025 at 8:01 AM
Growth in renewable energy means number of hours of negative electricity pricing is rising globally
• When supply exceeds demand, some grid operators pay consumers to take their power
• In some Australian places rate of negative pricing is ~25%; Canberra considering creating free power hours
• When supply exceeds demand, some grid operators pay consumers to take their power
• In some Australian places rate of negative pricing is ~25%; Canberra considering creating free power hours
Headline, aggregate US construction data mask widely diverging trends for sector
• Construction spending in factories has slumped this year as firms worry about impact of US tariffs
• Meanwhile, construction of (power-hungry) data centres is booming - albeit from a low base
• Construction spending in factories has slumped this year as firms worry about impact of US tariffs
• Meanwhile, construction of (power-hungry) data centres is booming - albeit from a low base
November 10, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Headline, aggregate US construction data mask widely diverging trends for sector
• Construction spending in factories has slumped this year as firms worry about impact of US tariffs
• Meanwhile, construction of (power-hungry) data centres is booming - albeit from a low base
• Construction spending in factories has slumped this year as firms worry about impact of US tariffs
• Meanwhile, construction of (power-hungry) data centres is booming - albeit from a low base
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
I can't tell you how many interviews I've done where I've been asked: If Trump's policies are so problematic, why are U.S. stocks rising so rapidly.
A bit of international context illustrates the real issue here.
U.S. stocks have dramatically underperformed other advanced economies.
A bit of international context illustrates the real issue here.
U.S. stocks have dramatically underperformed other advanced economies.
November 10, 2025 at 3:15 PM
I can't tell you how many interviews I've done where I've been asked: If Trump's policies are so problematic, why are U.S. stocks rising so rapidly.
A bit of international context illustrates the real issue here.
U.S. stocks have dramatically underperformed other advanced economies.
A bit of international context illustrates the real issue here.
U.S. stocks have dramatically underperformed other advanced economies.
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Canada has just lost measles elimination status. The U.S. will undoubtedly follow shortly.
Elimination means that there is no continuous spreading of measles within the country for a year or longer.
Canada and the U.S. have blown it, and it’s largely the fault of the anti-vaccination movement.
Elimination means that there is no continuous spreading of measles within the country for a year or longer.
Canada and the U.S. have blown it, and it’s largely the fault of the anti-vaccination movement.
Canada loses measles elimination status after three decades, health agency says
Canada has lost its measles elimination status after nearly three decades due to its failure to curb a year-long outbreak, the country's public health agency said on Monday.
www.reuters.com
November 10, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Canada has just lost measles elimination status. The U.S. will undoubtedly follow shortly.
Elimination means that there is no continuous spreading of measles within the country for a year or longer.
Canada and the U.S. have blown it, and it’s largely the fault of the anti-vaccination movement.
Elimination means that there is no continuous spreading of measles within the country for a year or longer.
Canada and the U.S. have blown it, and it’s largely the fault of the anti-vaccination movement.
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
It's been a rough year for European trade policy. The deal with the US, disputes with China and an overall sense of a worsening economic climate. My latest piece tries to draw out some lessons for Europe www.cer.eu/insights/thr...
Three hard lessons for European trade
Global trade policy is now dominated by great power politics, putting Europe under pressure. The EU will have to accommodate the US, confront China and derisk from both.
www.cer.eu
November 10, 2025 at 2:22 PM
It's been a rough year for European trade policy. The deal with the US, disputes with China and an overall sense of a worsening economic climate. My latest piece tries to draw out some lessons for Europe www.cer.eu/insights/thr...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
“I’ve come to this anti-vax conference with a message: that we need to be more boldly anti-vax,” said Mark Gorton, the head of the MAHA Institute…(he) called for the elimination of the childhood vaccination schedule & removal of vaccines from the market.
www.washingtonpost.com/health/2025/...
www.washingtonpost.com/health/2025/...
‘God is an anti-vaxxer’: Inside the conference celebrating RFK Jr.’s rise
An anti-vaccine conference in Austin celebrated Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s rise to political power, highlighting his influence in Trump’s Washington.
www.washingtonpost.com
November 10, 2025 at 2:29 PM
“I’ve come to this anti-vax conference with a message: that we need to be more boldly anti-vax,” said Mark Gorton, the head of the MAHA Institute…(he) called for the elimination of the childhood vaccination schedule & removal of vaccines from the market.
www.washingtonpost.com/health/2025/...
www.washingtonpost.com/health/2025/...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
My Trade Secrets today. If the Supreme Court rules against Trump's emergency tariffs he can replace them. The real impact is political. Tariffs are already unpopular & blamed for high prices; being ruled illegal won't help.
But Trump needs them to raise revenue, so he's put himself in a corner.🍿🍿🍿
But Trump needs them to raise revenue, so he's put himself in a corner.🍿🍿🍿
The political risk to Donald Trump from the Supreme Court ruling
[FREE TO READ] The tariff case threatens his popularity far more than it does the US economy
on.ft.com
November 10, 2025 at 12:47 PM
My Trade Secrets today. If the Supreme Court rules against Trump's emergency tariffs he can replace them. The real impact is political. Tariffs are already unpopular & blamed for high prices; being ruled illegal won't help.
But Trump needs them to raise revenue, so he's put himself in a corner.🍿🍿🍿
But Trump needs them to raise revenue, so he's put himself in a corner.🍿🍿🍿
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
As Trump Admin uses mob-like tactics to threaten diplomats at international climate talks, important to reengage conversation on what is legitimate use of the economic weapon. New open access piece in JIEL w/Elena Chachko. (academic.oup.com/jiel/article...)
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/06/c...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/06/c...
Trump Officials Accused of Bullying Tactics to Kill a Climate Measure
www.nytimes.com
November 10, 2025 at 12:06 PM
As Trump Admin uses mob-like tactics to threaten diplomats at international climate talks, important to reengage conversation on what is legitimate use of the economic weapon. New open access piece in JIEL w/Elena Chachko. (academic.oup.com/jiel/article...)
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/06/c...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/06/c...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Trump trade war costs US Italian pasta: “Exporters say import and antidumping duties totaling 107% on their pasta brands will make doing business in America too costly and are preparing to pull out of U.S. stores as soon as January.” Via WSJ
Italian Pasta Is Poised to Disappear From American Grocery Shelves — The Wall Street Journal
Trump administration is set to impose duties of 107% on Italian pasta imports, among most punitive of tariffs it has levied
apple.news
November 10, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Trump trade war costs US Italian pasta: “Exporters say import and antidumping duties totaling 107% on their pasta brands will make doing business in America too costly and are preparing to pull out of U.S. stores as soon as January.” Via WSJ
Trump is (by far) the most unpopular US president in recent history
• In recent weeks Trump's approval rating has fallen to 42%, its lowest level in his second term
• Yet Trump is more popular in his second term than in his first; first term sceptics are now converts
• In recent weeks Trump's approval rating has fallen to 42%, its lowest level in his second term
• Yet Trump is more popular in his second term than in his first; first term sceptics are now converts
November 10, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Trump is (by far) the most unpopular US president in recent history
• In recent weeks Trump's approval rating has fallen to 42%, its lowest level in his second term
• Yet Trump is more popular in his second term than in his first; first term sceptics are now converts
• In recent weeks Trump's approval rating has fallen to 42%, its lowest level in his second term
• Yet Trump is more popular in his second term than in his first; first term sceptics are now converts
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
🚨Very Strong Job Market Candidates
#EconSky
The Berlin School of Economics is a unique cooperation of 9 institutions - together we do research and train PhDs/Postdocs.
This year: fantastic people in applied micro, behavioral/experimental, and macro. 👇🏻
berlinschoolofeconomics.de/job-market/j...
#EconSky
The Berlin School of Economics is a unique cooperation of 9 institutions - together we do research and train PhDs/Postdocs.
This year: fantastic people in applied micro, behavioral/experimental, and macro. 👇🏻
berlinschoolofeconomics.de/job-market/j...
Job Market Candidates
berlinschoolofeconomics.de
November 10, 2025 at 6:47 AM
🚨Very Strong Job Market Candidates
#EconSky
The Berlin School of Economics is a unique cooperation of 9 institutions - together we do research and train PhDs/Postdocs.
This year: fantastic people in applied micro, behavioral/experimental, and macro. 👇🏻
berlinschoolofeconomics.de/job-market/j...
#EconSky
The Berlin School of Economics is a unique cooperation of 9 institutions - together we do research and train PhDs/Postdocs.
This year: fantastic people in applied micro, behavioral/experimental, and macro. 👇🏻
berlinschoolofeconomics.de/job-market/j...
China's oil reserves keep growing as all Chinese energy firms now need to hold stocks
• Since early February China’s stocks grew by 110m barrels, to a record 1.2bn—triple the size of US reserves
• China's oil stocks could reach 1.5bn barrels - or ~145 days of imports - by next year
• Since early February China’s stocks grew by 110m barrels, to a record 1.2bn—triple the size of US reserves
• China's oil stocks could reach 1.5bn barrels - or ~145 days of imports - by next year
November 10, 2025 at 8:00 AM
China's oil reserves keep growing as all Chinese energy firms now need to hold stocks
• Since early February China’s stocks grew by 110m barrels, to a record 1.2bn—triple the size of US reserves
• China's oil stocks could reach 1.5bn barrels - or ~145 days of imports - by next year
• Since early February China’s stocks grew by 110m barrels, to a record 1.2bn—triple the size of US reserves
• China's oil stocks could reach 1.5bn barrels - or ~145 days of imports - by next year
Artificial intelligence investment boom is fuelling US growth as Trump doubles down on AI bet
• Data suggest that tech sector has been main contributor to US growth so far this year
• Consumption is getting a lift too, via a stock market propelled by bets on AI despite worries of bubble bursting
• Data suggest that tech sector has been main contributor to US growth so far this year
• Consumption is getting a lift too, via a stock market propelled by bets on AI despite worries of bubble bursting
November 7, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Artificial intelligence investment boom is fuelling US growth as Trump doubles down on AI bet
• Data suggest that tech sector has been main contributor to US growth so far this year
• Consumption is getting a lift too, via a stock market propelled by bets on AI despite worries of bubble bursting
• Data suggest that tech sector has been main contributor to US growth so far this year
• Consumption is getting a lift too, via a stock market propelled by bets on AI despite worries of bubble bursting
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
"China can produce almost a terawatt of renewable-energy capacity in a year. That is enough to supply as much energy as more than 300 big nuclear-power plants."
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
I love The Economist's bullishness here
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
I love The Economist's bullishness here
China’s clean-energy revolution will reshape markets and politics
The world’s biggest manufacturer now has an interest in the world decarbonising
www.economist.com
November 7, 2025 at 11:08 AM
"China can produce almost a terawatt of renewable-energy capacity in a year. That is enough to supply as much energy as more than 300 big nuclear-power plants."
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
I love The Economist's bullishness here
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
I love The Economist's bullishness here
Despite US tariff turmoil, global activity has proved quite resilient so far this year
• Efforts to make stocks ahead of tariffs, alongside US dollar depreciation, have played a role here
• Weaker greenback typically benefits emerging markets through boost for dollar-borrowers’ balance sheets
• Efforts to make stocks ahead of tariffs, alongside US dollar depreciation, have played a role here
• Weaker greenback typically benefits emerging markets through boost for dollar-borrowers’ balance sheets
November 7, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Despite US tariff turmoil, global activity has proved quite resilient so far this year
• Efforts to make stocks ahead of tariffs, alongside US dollar depreciation, have played a role here
• Weaker greenback typically benefits emerging markets through boost for dollar-borrowers’ balance sheets
• Efforts to make stocks ahead of tariffs, alongside US dollar depreciation, have played a role here
• Weaker greenback typically benefits emerging markets through boost for dollar-borrowers’ balance sheets
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Russia's main tank producing company Uralvagonzavod is planning on laying off 10% of its work force in 2026. This is likely linked more to the railway section of the company but still isn't a good look mid war if railway car demand is dropping.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8181859
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8181859
E1.ru: «Уралвагонзавод» планирует уволить 10% сотрудников к началу 2026 года
Подробнее на сайте
www.kommersant.ru
November 7, 2025 at 8:25 AM
Russia's main tank producing company Uralvagonzavod is planning on laying off 10% of its work force in 2026. This is likely linked more to the railway section of the company but still isn't a good look mid war if railway car demand is dropping.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8181859
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8181859
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Huge Nexperia news
The Netherlands is prepared to suspend a ministerial order that gave it control over Chinese-owned chipmaker Nexperia if chip shipments resume in the coming days
The Netherlands is prepared to suspend a ministerial order that gave it control over Chinese-owned chipmaker Nexperia if chip shipments resume in the coming days
Dutch Ready to Drop Control of Nexperia If Chip Supply Resumes
The Netherlands is prepared to suspend a so-called ministerial order that gave it control over Chinese-owned chipmaker Nexperia in a move that would de-escalate a fight with Beijing that threatens to disrupt automotive production around the world.
www.bloomberg.com
November 7, 2025 at 7:21 AM
Huge Nexperia news
The Netherlands is prepared to suspend a ministerial order that gave it control over Chinese-owned chipmaker Nexperia if chip shipments resume in the coming days
The Netherlands is prepared to suspend a ministerial order that gave it control over Chinese-owned chipmaker Nexperia if chip shipments resume in the coming days
KAL's cartoon in The Economist this week
November 7, 2025 at 8:00 AM
KAL's cartoon in The Economist this week
In some US states data centres consume more than one-third of power supply
• Power use from data centres is becoming sensitive issue as some argue AI is driving up electricity prices
• Some utility firms now require data centres to pay upfront for electricity, even if they end up using less
• Power use from data centres is becoming sensitive issue as some argue AI is driving up electricity prices
• Some utility firms now require data centres to pay upfront for electricity, even if they end up using less
November 6, 2025 at 4:03 PM
In some US states data centres consume more than one-third of power supply
• Power use from data centres is becoming sensitive issue as some argue AI is driving up electricity prices
• Some utility firms now require data centres to pay upfront for electricity, even if they end up using less
• Power use from data centres is becoming sensitive issue as some argue AI is driving up electricity prices
• Some utility firms now require data centres to pay upfront for electricity, even if they end up using less
Suggestions that AI could boost productivity by up to 20% may well be overblown
• Experienced software developers tend to forecast and report that AI speeds up their work by about 20%
• Yet recording how long AI-aided task actually takes shows AI slows developers by 20%
• Experienced software developers tend to forecast and report that AI speeds up their work by about 20%
• Yet recording how long AI-aided task actually takes shows AI slows developers by 20%
November 6, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Suggestions that AI could boost productivity by up to 20% may well be overblown
• Experienced software developers tend to forecast and report that AI speeds up their work by about 20%
• Yet recording how long AI-aided task actually takes shows AI slows developers by 20%
• Experienced software developers tend to forecast and report that AI speeds up their work by about 20%
• Yet recording how long AI-aided task actually takes shows AI slows developers by 20%
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
This would be extremely interesting if true, but that's a big if www.newscientist.com/article/2503...
Is the expansion of the universe slowing down?
It is widely accepted that the universe is expanding at an accelerating rate, but now researchers say our measurements of the mysterious force driving that may be wrong and that the universe began to ...
www.newscientist.com
November 6, 2025 at 8:05 AM
This would be extremely interesting if true, but that's a big if www.newscientist.com/article/2503...
US aid cuts are devastating health services across Africa
• America used to supply more than two-thirds of bilateral aid for public health in sub-Saharan Africa
• Impact of cuts is obscured by fact that data systems to track disease used to be paid for by American aid
• America used to supply more than two-thirds of bilateral aid for public health in sub-Saharan Africa
• Impact of cuts is obscured by fact that data systems to track disease used to be paid for by American aid
November 6, 2025 at 8:01 AM
US aid cuts are devastating health services across Africa
• America used to supply more than two-thirds of bilateral aid for public health in sub-Saharan Africa
• Impact of cuts is obscured by fact that data systems to track disease used to be paid for by American aid
• America used to supply more than two-thirds of bilateral aid for public health in sub-Saharan Africa
• Impact of cuts is obscured by fact that data systems to track disease used to be paid for by American aid
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
As soon as Trump rolled out his "reciprocal" tariffs, I warned that they would be unlikely to survive court challenge. SCOTUS reaction during oral arguments today suggests that's right. Unfortunately there are other ways that Trump can impose tariffs. Congress needs to stop him. wapo.st/4lcJ2fw
Opinion | Trump just imposed the largest tax hike since 1942 without congressional approval
Trump’s tariffs are a tax by another name, and the power to levy taxes lies with Congress.
wapo.st
November 5, 2025 at 5:05 PM
As soon as Trump rolled out his "reciprocal" tariffs, I warned that they would be unlikely to survive court challenge. SCOTUS reaction during oral arguments today suggests that's right. Unfortunately there are other ways that Trump can impose tariffs. Congress needs to stop him. wapo.st/4lcJ2fw