Ville Kostian
@kostianv.bsky.social
Geopolitics, geoeconomics and military.
Reposted by Ville Kostian
5/ Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Borova and Hulyaipole. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and near Slovyansk.
Full report: isw.pub/UkrWar021226
Full report: isw.pub/UkrWar021226
February 13, 2026 at 2:22 AM
5/ Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Borova and Hulyaipole. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and near Slovyansk.
Full report: isw.pub/UkrWar021226
Full report: isw.pub/UkrWar021226
Reposted by Ville Kostian
4/ Available independent reporting continues to indicate that 2025 was the deadliest year for Ukrainian citizens since Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The United Kingdom (UK) and the Netherlands announced new military aid, particularly to support Ukrainian air defense.
The United Kingdom (UK) and the Netherlands announced new military aid, particularly to support Ukrainian air defense.
February 13, 2026 at 2:22 AM
4/ Available independent reporting continues to indicate that 2025 was the deadliest year for Ukrainian citizens since Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The United Kingdom (UK) and the Netherlands announced new military aid, particularly to support Ukrainian air defense.
The United Kingdom (UK) and the Netherlands announced new military aid, particularly to support Ukrainian air defense.
Reposted by Ville Kostian
NEW: Russia is blocking WhatsApp and other Western social media platforms, media outlets, and means of bypassing internet restrictions as part of an intensification of the Kremlin’s campaign to reassert control over the Russian information space and prevent access to the global internet. (1/5)
February 13, 2026 at 2:21 AM
NEW: Russia is blocking WhatsApp and other Western social media platforms, media outlets, and means of bypassing internet restrictions as part of an intensification of the Kremlin’s campaign to reassert control over the Russian information space and prevent access to the global internet. (1/5)
Reposted by Ville Kostian
7/ Read the full February 12, 2026 Iran Update: isw.pub/IranUpdate02...
February 13, 2026 at 3:19 AM
7/ Read the full February 12, 2026 Iran Update: isw.pub/IranUpdate02...
Reposted by Ville Kostian
6/ Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presented US President Trump with evidence that the Iranian regime continued to kill protesters even after it told the United States that it would stop harming civilians and that Iran has never intended to discuss non-nuclear issues with the US.
February 13, 2026 at 3:19 AM
6/ Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presented US President Trump with evidence that the Iranian regime continued to kill protesters even after it told the United States that it would stop harming civilians and that Iran has never intended to discuss non-nuclear issues with the US.
Reposted by Ville Kostian
US Central Command’s (CENTCOM) withdrawal from key bases in Syria illustrates that the United States is gradually shifting its counter-Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) framework to engage with the Syrian government rather than the SDF. (1/7)
February 13, 2026 at 3:19 AM
US Central Command’s (CENTCOM) withdrawal from key bases in Syria illustrates that the United States is gradually shifting its counter-Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) framework to engage with the Syrian government rather than the SDF. (1/7)
Reposted by Ville Kostian
⚡️Several Ukrainian children abducted to Russia returned in initiative backed by Melania Trump, White House says.
"Today marks the third reunification since I have been working strategically with both nations. I have no doubt more progress will come," Melania Trump said in a statement on Feb. 12.
"Today marks the third reunification since I have been working strategically with both nations. I have no doubt more progress will come," Melania Trump said in a statement on Feb. 12.
Several Ukrainian children abducted to Russia returned in initiative backed by Melania Trump, White House says
Several Ukrainian children previously taken to Russia have been returned to their families in Ukraine, U.S. First Lady Melania Trump announced on Feb. 12.
kyivindependent.com
February 13, 2026 at 4:17 AM
⚡️Several Ukrainian children abducted to Russia returned in initiative backed by Melania Trump, White House says.
"Today marks the third reunification since I have been working strategically with both nations. I have no doubt more progress will come," Melania Trump said in a statement on Feb. 12.
"Today marks the third reunification since I have been working strategically with both nations. I have no doubt more progress will come," Melania Trump said in a statement on Feb. 12.
Reposted by Ville Kostian
Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 12, 2026
www.criticalthreats.org
February 13, 2026 at 4:19 AM
Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
Reposted by Ville Kostian
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Borova and Hulyaipole. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and near Slovyansk.
February 13, 2026 at 4:19 AM
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Borova and Hulyaipole. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and near Slovyansk.
Reposted by Ville Kostian
Russia is blocking WhatsApp and other Western social media platforms, media outlets, and means of bypassing internet restrictions as part of an intensification of the Kremlin's campaign to reassert control over the Russian information space and prevent access to the global internet.
February 13, 2026 at 4:19 AM
Russia is blocking WhatsApp and other Western social media platforms, media outlets, and means of bypassing internet restrictions as part of an intensification of the Kremlin's campaign to reassert control over the Russian information space and prevent access to the global internet.
Reposted by Ville Kostian
The UK doubles number of troops in Norway
The UK doubles number of troops in Norway
One day ahead of NATO’s presentation of its so-called Arctic Sentry, the UK defence minister announced that the number of British troops training in Norway will be increased to 2,000.
www.thebarentsobserver.com
February 12, 2026 at 3:11 PM
The UK doubles number of troops in Norway
Reposted by Ville Kostian
NOW: Ukrainian drones attack north Russian oil hub Ukhta
NOW: Ukrainian drones attack north Russian oil hub Ukhta
Explosions could be heard in the industrial town in the Komi Republic as drones attacked on Thursday morning. Ukhta is located almost 2,000 km from Ukraine.
www.thebarentsobserver.com
February 12, 2026 at 8:24 AM
NOW: Ukrainian drones attack north Russian oil hub Ukhta
Reposted by Ville Kostian
Ukraine's Defense Minister outlines military priorities ahead of Ramstein meeting #Ukraine
Ukraine's Defense Minister outlines military priorities ahead of Ramstein meeting
kyivindependent.com
February 12, 2026 at 7:34 PM
Ukraine's Defense Minister outlines military priorities ahead of Ramstein meeting #Ukraine
Reposted by Ville Kostian
Update: Vladyslav Heraskevych has appealed his disqualification to the Court of Arbitration for Sport, arguing that he violated no Olympic rules and was denied the same treatment afforded to other athletes.
Ukrainian athlete appeals ban from Olympic skeleton event over helmet images
Vladyslav Heraskevych was removed from the men’s skeleton event for refusing to remove a helmet with portraits of Ukrainian athletes who’ve died in the war with Russia.
www.washingtonpost.com
February 12, 2026 at 7:37 PM
Update: Vladyslav Heraskevych has appealed his disqualification to the Court of Arbitration for Sport, arguing that he violated no Olympic rules and was denied the same treatment afforded to other athletes.
Reposted by Ville Kostian
4/ ISW has removed its assessment of changes in the composition of Rosgvardia because it was incorrect. ISW sincerely apologizes for these errors.
February 12, 2026 at 7:07 PM
4/ ISW has removed its assessment of changes in the composition of Rosgvardia because it was incorrect. ISW sincerely apologizes for these errors.
Reposted by Ville Kostian
3/ ISW also incorrectly assessed that the Russian General Staff would control parts of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations based on Russian insider reports that the Russian Security Council may be planning to abolish the ministry and merge some of its employees with Rosgvardia.
February 12, 2026 at 7:07 PM
3/ ISW also incorrectly assessed that the Russian General Staff would control parts of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations based on Russian insider reports that the Russian Security Council may be planning to abolish the ministry and merge some of its employees with Rosgvardia.
Reposted by Ville Kostian
Correction: ISW erroneously assessed on February 11, 2026 that the Kremlin was subordinating Rosgvardia to the control of the Russian General Staff due to a mistranslation by our team. (1/4)
NEW: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov continued to explicitly blame the US on February 10 for the lack of progress in ending Russia’s war against Ukraine and reinvoked the Spring 2022 Istanbul talks to justify Russia’s rejection of Ukraine receiving meaningful security guarantees. 🧵(1/5)
February 12, 2026 at 7:07 PM
Correction: ISW erroneously assessed on February 11, 2026 that the Kremlin was subordinating Rosgvardia to the control of the Russian General Staff due to a mistranslation by our team. (1/4)
Reposted by Ville Kostian
Ukraine war latest: SBU claims new 'range record' with drone strike on Russian oil refinery in Komi Republic #Ukraine
Ukraine war latest: SBU claims new 'range record' with drone strike on Russian oil refinery in Komi Republic
kyivindependent.com
February 12, 2026 at 7:09 PM
Ukraine war latest: SBU claims new 'range record' with drone strike on Russian oil refinery in Komi Republic #Ukraine
Reposted by Ville Kostian
🗣️🇮🇷Reporter: Is there a timeline for an Iran deal?
🇺🇸Trump: I guess over the next month, something like that.
I will talk to the Iranians as long as I like. If we can't get a deal with them, we will go to phase two. Phase two will be very tough for them. I am not looking for that.
🇺🇸Trump: I guess over the next month, something like that.
I will talk to the Iranians as long as I like. If we can't get a deal with them, we will go to phase two. Phase two will be very tough for them. I am not looking for that.
February 12, 2026 at 7:12 PM
🗣️🇮🇷Reporter: Is there a timeline for an Iran deal?
🇺🇸Trump: I guess over the next month, something like that.
I will talk to the Iranians as long as I like. If we can't get a deal with them, we will go to phase two. Phase two will be very tough for them. I am not looking for that.
🇺🇸Trump: I guess over the next month, something like that.
I will talk to the Iranians as long as I like. If we can't get a deal with them, we will go to phase two. Phase two will be very tough for them. I am not looking for that.
Reposted by Ville Kostian
The United Kingdom is allocating the largest support package in its history to Ukraine - £500 million (over $680 million) to strengthen air defense capabilities.
This was announced by UK Defence Secretary John Healey at a meeting of the Ramstein-format Contact Group.
This was announced by UK Defence Secretary John Healey at a meeting of the Ramstein-format Contact Group.
February 12, 2026 at 7:14 PM
The United Kingdom is allocating the largest support package in its history to Ukraine - £500 million (over $680 million) to strengthen air defense capabilities.
This was announced by UK Defence Secretary John Healey at a meeting of the Ramstein-format Contact Group.
This was announced by UK Defence Secretary John Healey at a meeting of the Ramstein-format Contact Group.
Reposted by Ville Kostian
" #Pentagon policy chief tells European #Nato members to step up combat capabilities"
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/f...
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/f...
Pentagon policy chief tells European Nato members to step up combat capabilities
Elbridge Colby tells meeting in Brussels that US plans to reduce conventional forces in Europe but remains committed to Nato alliance
www.theguardian.com
February 12, 2026 at 6:59 PM
" #Pentagon policy chief tells European #Nato members to step up combat capabilities"
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/f...
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/f...
Reposted by Ville Kostian
"The higher death rate may be tied to Russia using fewer armored vehicles, which are valuable but easily detectable by drone, and instead attacking with only infantry," ISW's Kateryna Stepanenko told Foreign Policy
Read the full story:
Read the full story:
Can Ukraine Kill Its Way to Victory?
Increased losses could strain Russia’s military, but Ukraine faces steep hurdles.
foreignpolicy.com
February 12, 2026 at 3:30 PM
"The higher death rate may be tied to Russia using fewer armored vehicles, which are valuable but easily detectable by drone, and instead attacking with only infantry," ISW's Kateryna Stepanenko told Foreign Policy
Read the full story:
Read the full story:
Reposted by Ville Kostian
5/ Russian Occupation Update, February 12, 2026:
Russian Occupation Update, February 12, 2026
An approaching Russian administrative deadline is likely to enable the systematic removal of vulnerable Ukrainian children.
isw.pub
February 12, 2026 at 5:59 PM
5/ Russian Occupation Update, February 12, 2026: