Andy Scollick
@andyscollick.bsky.social
Strategic foresight: future security environment, defence policy, defence planning, warfare development regarding the climate change, energy, defence nexus | Former adviser to Ukraine's military | PhD in sustainability science (complex adaptive systems)
Pinned
The best kind of insurance is fully comprehensive insurance.
The best kind of security is fully comprehensive security.
There is no security without:
🔹 Human (individual)
🔹 National (civil, military, defence)
🔹 Collective (international)
🔹 Energy
🔹 Climate and
🔹 Food security.
The best kind of security is fully comprehensive security.
There is no security without:
🔹 Human (individual)
🔹 National (civil, military, defence)
🔹 Collective (international)
🔹 Energy
🔹 Climate and
🔹 Food security.
"War has a momentum of its own and it carries you away from all thoughtful intentions when you get into it. You know where you begin. You never know where you are going to end."
― George F. Kennan
― George F. Kennan
How US military is assembling within striking distance of Iran
A huge arsenal of US military hardware is mounting for possible action against the Tehran regime - including something that gives away the possibility that any air campaign might be quite prolonged, n...
news.sky.com
February 19, 2026 at 10:50 AM
"War has a momentum of its own and it carries you away from all thoughtful intentions when you get into it. You know where you begin. You never know where you are going to end."
― George F. Kennan
― George F. Kennan
France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and Poland are seeking a way for Europe to survive. They should be supported. It is in the interests of the other EU member states.
‘No red lines’: Spain reveals EU supergroup’s plan to challenge US and China
But smaller countries fear the club will sideline dissenting voices in pursuit of a two-speed Europe.
www.politico.eu
February 19, 2026 at 10:47 AM
France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and Poland are seeking a way for Europe to survive. They should be supported. It is in the interests of the other EU member states.
If you're in Iran right now, and not Iranian, you're either very brave or very daft.
Donald Tusk tells Polish citizens to immediately leave Iran amid ‘very real’ prospect of war - Europe live
Poland’s prime minister says ‘under no circumstances anyone should be travelling to that country’
www.theguardian.com
February 19, 2026 at 10:45 AM
If you're in Iran right now, and not Iranian, you're either very brave or very daft.
Despite Reptile Man Rubio's rhetoric at the Munich Security Conference, and the bullshit from the US Ambassador to NATO and Elbridge Colby, it is clear as daylight that the US is withdrawing itself bit by bit from NATO.
US presses NATO for major reset, ending mission in Iraq
The push by Washington, which also wants to scale down a peacekeeping operation in Kosovo, has become known internally as a “return to factory settings,” four diplomats told POLITICO.
www.politico.eu
February 19, 2026 at 10:44 AM
Despite Reptile Man Rubio's rhetoric at the Munich Security Conference, and the bullshit from the US Ambassador to NATO and Elbridge Colby, it is clear as daylight that the US is withdrawing itself bit by bit from NATO.
Trump wants his Nobel War Prize. The talk of a "deal" is likely a White House delaying tactic whilst carrier groups approach and take up stations before launching a sustained attack.
US tells Iran to do deal as Trump hints at strikes
The White House has warned that Iran would be "wise" to do a deal with the United States as President Donald Trump once again hinted at military action.
www.rte.ie
February 19, 2026 at 10:42 AM
Trump wants his Nobel War Prize. The talk of a "deal" is likely a White House delaying tactic whilst carrier groups approach and take up stations before launching a sustained attack.
Today's planning exercise:
"At a global average warming of 2°C and over, what impacts will this have on civil and military aviation in terms manufacture, supply chain logistics, spare parts, maintenance, ATC and, crucially, air crew/passenger safety?"
Expect a lot more air accidents, basically.
"At a global average warming of 2°C and over, what impacts will this have on civil and military aviation in terms manufacture, supply chain logistics, spare parts, maintenance, ATC and, crucially, air crew/passenger safety?"
Expect a lot more air accidents, basically.
February 19, 2026 at 10:39 AM
Today's planning exercise:
"At a global average warming of 2°C and over, what impacts will this have on civil and military aviation in terms manufacture, supply chain logistics, spare parts, maintenance, ATC and, crucially, air crew/passenger safety?"
Expect a lot more air accidents, basically.
"At a global average warming of 2°C and over, what impacts will this have on civil and military aviation in terms manufacture, supply chain logistics, spare parts, maintenance, ATC and, crucially, air crew/passenger safety?"
Expect a lot more air accidents, basically.
"Misconduct in public office"
Britain's former prince Andrew has been arrested on suspicion of misconduct during his time as a trade envoy, police say.
"As part of the investigation, we have today (19/2) arrested a man in his sixties from Norfolk on suspicion of misconduct in public office," the Thames Valley force said.
"As part of the investigation, we have today (19/2) arrested a man in his sixties from Norfolk on suspicion of misconduct in public office," the Thames Valley force said.
February 19, 2026 at 10:28 AM
"Misconduct in public office"
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Ukraine is facing a "mafia-style" shakedown from the US.
Canada may be next. We need to be ready.
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/e...
Canada may be next. We need to be ready.
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/e...
Ukraine peace talks little more than a mafia-style shakedown by the US and Russia
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been powered by lies and backed up by the US. World affairs editor Sam Kiley meets some of Putin’s Russian-speaking victims in Pavlohrad, eastern Ukraine, as Volodymyr...
www.independent.co.uk
February 18, 2026 at 9:53 PM
Ukraine is facing a "mafia-style" shakedown from the US.
Canada may be next. We need to be ready.
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/e...
Canada may be next. We need to be ready.
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/e...
Reposted by Andy Scollick
2026 basically
February 18, 2026 at 4:23 PM
2026 basically
Reposted by Andy Scollick
🇺🇸❗️On the eve of the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, the Russian Security Council developed instructions on how to "sell" Trump the "greatest deal." — The Economist
The document describes a "treasure trove of Arctic and northern resources"…
The document describes a "treasure trove of Arctic and northern resources"…
February 18, 2026 at 9:41 PM
🇺🇸❗️On the eve of the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, the Russian Security Council developed instructions on how to "sell" Trump the "greatest deal." — The Economist
The document describes a "treasure trove of Arctic and northern resources"…
The document describes a "treasure trove of Arctic and northern resources"…
Reposted by Andy Scollick
"Commercial interests, rather than military or political concerns, are driving the United States' talks with Russia," writes Charles Hecker, an associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, in this op-ed.
Are dollars replacing diplomacy in US-Russia talks?
Anyone hoping for a geopolitically robust and sustainable resolution to Russia's war on Ukraine should quickly re-examine their optimism or at least check their assumptions.
Commercial interests, rat...
kyivindependent.com
February 18, 2026 at 9:45 PM
"Commercial interests, rather than military or political concerns, are driving the United States' talks with Russia," writes Charles Hecker, an associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, in this op-ed.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Testing underwater swarms: €3.7m project explores drone teamwork in hostile environments, aiming to transform naval intelligence and security operations.
EU’s underwater drone swarms complete trials, shaping future naval missions
EU's underwater drone swarms complete trials, shaping future naval missions
www.brusselstimes.com
February 18, 2026 at 9:46 PM
Testing underwater swarms: €3.7m project explores drone teamwork in hostile environments, aiming to transform naval intelligence and security operations.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
THREAD: My article in @lemonde.fr today is behind a pay wall. But I would like to share a few of the key points. I've been lecturing & writing on pieces of this for a few months. This is my most complete exposition, but I hope to turn it into a longer piece soon. 1/ www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/a...
'Today, 96% of the world's nuclear weapons are held by states with authoritarian leaders'
OP-ED. By allowing the New START treaty to expire, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin deliver the final blow to global regulation of the ultimate weapon. International security expert Joseph Cirincione w...
www.lemonde.fr
February 18, 2026 at 9:41 PM
THREAD: My article in @lemonde.fr today is behind a pay wall. But I would like to share a few of the key points. I've been lecturing & writing on pieces of this for a few months. This is my most complete exposition, but I hope to turn it into a longer piece soon. 1/ www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/a...
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Trump's lies vs. the last four weeks of extreme weather reality:
February 18, 2026 at 8:12 PM
Trump's lies vs. the last four weeks of extreme weather reality:
Reposted by Andy Scollick
The U.S. pivot to Asia has failed, and “the constraints U.S. policymakers tried to place on China’s regional influence are giving way,” writes @zackcooper.bsky.social. “Military deterrence is all that remains of U.S. strategy in Asia.”
https://fam.ag/4rlIfeV
https://fam.ag/4rlIfeV
February 18, 2026 at 9:26 PM
The U.S. pivot to Asia has failed, and “the constraints U.S. policymakers tried to place on China’s regional influence are giving way,” writes @zackcooper.bsky.social. “Military deterrence is all that remains of U.S. strategy in Asia.”
https://fam.ag/4rlIfeV
https://fam.ag/4rlIfeV
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Some important analysis by @marcdaalder.bsky.social today on what the stakes really are in climate. I particularly appreciated the point that those who used to be vocal climate skeptics are now those preaching “adaptation” rather than mitigation. Thank you Marc. newsroom.co.nz/2026/02/18/c...
Climate change is here. NZ isn't ready
Analysis: A serious approach to climate adaptation requires reckoning with the grim reality the future holds: more storms, more floods, more heat.
newsroom.co.nz
February 18, 2026 at 6:06 PM
Some important analysis by @marcdaalder.bsky.social today on what the stakes really are in climate. I particularly appreciated the point that those who used to be vocal climate skeptics are now those preaching “adaptation” rather than mitigation. Thank you Marc. newsroom.co.nz/2026/02/18/c...
Reposted by Andy Scollick
😡"Dirty decision". Zelenskyy reacted to the return of the Russian flag to the Paralympics
"I don't want to say that it's because of money, because I don't know. But these are dirty decisions - absolutely disrespectful and un-European. I mean Europe from the point of view of values."
"I don't want to say that it's because of money, because I don't know. But these are dirty decisions - absolutely disrespectful and un-European. I mean Europe from the point of view of values."
February 18, 2026 at 8:31 PM
😡"Dirty decision". Zelenskyy reacted to the return of the Russian flag to the Paralympics
"I don't want to say that it's because of money, because I don't know. But these are dirty decisions - absolutely disrespectful and un-European. I mean Europe from the point of view of values."
"I don't want to say that it's because of money, because I don't know. But these are dirty decisions - absolutely disrespectful and un-European. I mean Europe from the point of view of values."
Reposted by Andy Scollick
WHITE HOUSE: "When you see it on Truth Social, you know it's directly from President Trump."
TRUMP 2 WEEKS AGO: "Somebody posted, a staffer posted ... somebody slipped. I didn't do it. This was done by somebody else."
TRUMP 2 WEEKS AGO: "Somebody posted, a staffer posted ... somebody slipped. I didn't do it. This was done by somebody else."
February 18, 2026 at 7:23 PM
WHITE HOUSE: "When you see it on Truth Social, you know it's directly from President Trump."
TRUMP 2 WEEKS AGO: "Somebody posted, a staffer posted ... somebody slipped. I didn't do it. This was done by somebody else."
TRUMP 2 WEEKS AGO: "Somebody posted, a staffer posted ... somebody slipped. I didn't do it. This was done by somebody else."
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Holy shit.
A lot of people have suggested this, but I don’t think Lieu would make the allegation unless he had seen some evidence.
A lot of people have suggested this, but I don’t think Lieu would make the allegation unless he had seen some evidence.
February 18, 2026 at 7:34 PM
Holy shit.
A lot of people have suggested this, but I don’t think Lieu would make the allegation unless he had seen some evidence.
A lot of people have suggested this, but I don’t think Lieu would make the allegation unless he had seen some evidence.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Collapse of Cuba explained
Cuba is grinding to a halt as the Trump administration has moved to cut off its supply of oil from Venezuela and Mexico. Matt Frei explores the nation’s US relationship and what could come next.
📩 Read the full newsletter:
Cuba is grinding to a halt as the Trump administration has moved to cut off its supply of oil from Venezuela and Mexico. Matt Frei explores the nation’s US relationship and what could come next.
📩 Read the full newsletter:
Cuba: How Trump’s oil embargo is bringing country to its knees
Cuba is grinding to a halt as the Trump administration has moved to cut off its supply of oil from Venezuela and Mexico. Matt Frei explores the nation’s US relationship and what could come next.
channel4news.substack.com
February 18, 2026 at 7:35 PM
Collapse of Cuba explained
Cuba is grinding to a halt as the Trump administration has moved to cut off its supply of oil from Venezuela and Mexico. Matt Frei explores the nation’s US relationship and what could come next.
📩 Read the full newsletter:
Cuba is grinding to a halt as the Trump administration has moved to cut off its supply of oil from Venezuela and Mexico. Matt Frei explores the nation’s US relationship and what could come next.
📩 Read the full newsletter:
Reposted by Andy Scollick
The US position, the premise of the White House's statements, is that Ukraine doesn't have agency, Ukrainians are wrong to do a version of "give me liberty or give me death," Ukraine's president doesn't speak for them, and America's goal is make them surrender.
Which is basically Russia's position.
Which is basically Russia's position.
Q: Zelenskyy said he doesn't think it's fair Trump is saying Ukraine has to make concessions & not Russia. What's Trump's response?
LEAVITT: I think the president would respond by saying he doesn't think it's fair thousands of Ukrainians are losing their lives, and Russians too, in this deadly war
LEAVITT: I think the president would respond by saying he doesn't think it's fair thousands of Ukrainians are losing their lives, and Russians too, in this deadly war
February 18, 2026 at 7:31 PM
The US position, the premise of the White House's statements, is that Ukraine doesn't have agency, Ukrainians are wrong to do a version of "give me liberty or give me death," Ukraine's president doesn't speak for them, and America's goal is make them surrender.
Which is basically Russia's position.
Which is basically Russia's position.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
What does the latest research tell us about Earth’s changing climate?
The '10 New Insights in Climate Science 2025' report highlights 10 findings — including accelerating ocean warming, record-breaking global heat, biodiversity loss and reduced carbon uptake on land: www.esa.int/Applications...
The '10 New Insights in Climate Science 2025' report highlights 10 findings — including accelerating ocean warming, record-breaking global heat, biodiversity loss and reduced carbon uptake on land: www.esa.int/Applications...
February 18, 2026 at 1:55 PM
What does the latest research tell us about Earth’s changing climate?
The '10 New Insights in Climate Science 2025' report highlights 10 findings — including accelerating ocean warming, record-breaking global heat, biodiversity loss and reduced carbon uptake on land: www.esa.int/Applications...
The '10 New Insights in Climate Science 2025' report highlights 10 findings — including accelerating ocean warming, record-breaking global heat, biodiversity loss and reduced carbon uptake on land: www.esa.int/Applications...
Reposted by Andy Scollick
⚡ Slovakia and Hungary halted diesel exports to Ukraine after pipeline disruptions.
Robert Fico ordered the stop following Druzhba transit cuts, while Slovakia released 250,000 tons of state oil reserves to steady supplies.
🔗 united24media.com/latest-news/...
Robert Fico ordered the stop following Druzhba transit cuts, while Slovakia released 250,000 tons of state oil reserves to steady supplies.
🔗 united24media.com/latest-news/...
February 18, 2026 at 4:48 PM
⚡ Slovakia and Hungary halted diesel exports to Ukraine after pipeline disruptions.
Robert Fico ordered the stop following Druzhba transit cuts, while Slovakia released 250,000 tons of state oil reserves to steady supplies.
🔗 united24media.com/latest-news/...
Robert Fico ordered the stop following Druzhba transit cuts, while Slovakia released 250,000 tons of state oil reserves to steady supplies.
🔗 united24media.com/latest-news/...
Reposted by Andy Scollick
A coalition of environmental and health groups filed suit against the Trump administration's repeal of a key scientific finding that underpinned federal climate regulations
Environmental groups sue Trump administration
A coalition of environmental and health groups filed suit against the Trump administration's repeal of a key scientific finding that underpinned federal climate regulations.
www.rte.ie
February 18, 2026 at 4:59 PM
A coalition of environmental and health groups filed suit against the Trump administration's repeal of a key scientific finding that underpinned federal climate regulations
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Ted Lieu: “Donald Trump is in the Epstein files thousands and thousands of times. In those files, there are highly disturbing allegations of Donald Trump raping children … of Donald Trump threatening to kill children. So I encourage the press to go look at these allegations.”
February 18, 2026 at 4:35 PM
Ted Lieu: “Donald Trump is in the Epstein files thousands and thousands of times. In those files, there are highly disturbing allegations of Donald Trump raping children … of Donald Trump threatening to kill children. So I encourage the press to go look at these allegations.”