Phillips OBrien
@phillipspobrien.bsky.social
Professor of Strategic Studies, Author, Lover of Sicily. Purveyor of a “righteous-but-rational vibe”
Pinned
War and Power
A bold, revisionist study of modern warfare, showing that military victory is rooted not in large armies and decisive battles, but in the full spectrum of ec...
www.publicaffairsbooks.com
Hi All, my latest book, War and Power: Who Wins Wars and Why, is being released in North America in two weeks. The Publisher, Basic Books/Hatchette, has just released a discount code for 20% if you buy through them. Code is WAR&POWER (not case sensitive). www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/phill...
The Trump administration is literally going to kill its supporters, and still they cheer the circus.
February 13, 2026 at 7:31 AM
The Trump administration is literally going to kill its supporters, and still they cheer the circus.
Ukrainians are now saying that Russia lost 9000 more men in January that it was able to recruit. This is a key part of Ukrainian strategy.
united24media.com/latest-news/...
united24media.com/latest-news/...
Russia Lost 31,700 Troops in First Month of 2026—9,000 More Than It Recruited
In January, Russian military losses surpassed reinforcements by 9,000. Ukrainian forces excelled in multiple missions, impacting Russia's energy sector.
united24media.com
February 12, 2026 at 5:29 PM
Ukrainians are now saying that Russia lost 9000 more men in January that it was able to recruit. This is a key part of Ukrainian strategy.
united24media.com/latest-news/...
united24media.com/latest-news/...
So it looks like the US seized Maduro to protect Chinese oil interests in Venezuela. It certainly was not to free the Venezuelan people as they are still being brutalised by the continuation of the Maduro regime.
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
US trying to avoid "damaging" Chinese deals in Venezuela, energy secretary says
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said during a trip to Venezuela on Wednesday legitimate deals by legitimate Chinese companies will be fine in Venezuela, but the Trump administration is trying to av...
www.reuters.com
February 12, 2026 at 3:15 PM
So it looks like the US seized Maduro to protect Chinese oil interests in Venezuela. It certainly was not to free the Venezuelan people as they are still being brutalised by the continuation of the Maduro regime.
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
Great read. Spot on this:
“…what we are dealing with here is a generation of European leaders who cannot admit that they have failed. The world they assumed was permanent, was not. However instead of admitting their failure, they desperately pretend that things are not changing beneath their feet.”
“…what we are dealing with here is a generation of European leaders who cannot admit that they have failed. The world they assumed was permanent, was not. However instead of admitting their failure, they desperately pretend that things are not changing beneath their feet.”
Just sent out this free piece. For two weeks now we have heard senior European policy makers speak lies. Europe cannot defend itself without the USA, the USA under Trump it committed to NATO, Europe is too weak. It is a generation of failure justifying its mistakes. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
The Worst Argument Possible
Of course Europe can defend itself, indeed it should.
open.substack.com
February 12, 2026 at 8:37 AM
Great read. Spot on this:
“…what we are dealing with here is a generation of European leaders who cannot admit that they have failed. The world they assumed was permanent, was not. However instead of admitting their failure, they desperately pretend that things are not changing beneath their feet.”
“…what we are dealing with here is a generation of European leaders who cannot admit that they have failed. The world they assumed was permanent, was not. However instead of admitting their failure, they desperately pretend that things are not changing beneath their feet.”
Just sent out this free piece. For two weeks now we have heard senior European policy makers speak lies. Europe cannot defend itself without the USA, the USA under Trump it committed to NATO, Europe is too weak. It is a generation of failure justifying its mistakes. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
The Worst Argument Possible
Of course Europe can defend itself, indeed it should.
open.substack.com
February 12, 2026 at 8:19 AM
Just sent out this free piece. For two weeks now we have heard senior European policy makers speak lies. Europe cannot defend itself without the USA, the USA under Trump it committed to NATO, Europe is too weak. It is a generation of failure justifying its mistakes. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
“If there is one general truth in war, it is that how a war ends bears very little resemblance to how people imagine it will end when it starts.”
February 11, 2026 at 1:21 PM
“If there is one general truth in war, it is that how a war ends bears very little resemblance to how people imagine it will end when it starts.”
So, the FDA under the administration's anti-vaccine leadership is now rejecting approval to important new vaccines. The USA is getting poorer and sicker under Trump's regime. www.cnbc.com/2026/02/10/m...
Moderna says FDA refuses to review its application for experimental flu shot
Moderna said the move is inconsistent with previous feedback from the FDA on the experimental influenza shot, called mRNA-1010.
www.cnbc.com
February 11, 2026 at 2:02 PM
So, the FDA under the administration's anti-vaccine leadership is now rejecting approval to important new vaccines. The USA is getting poorer and sicker under Trump's regime. www.cnbc.com/2026/02/10/m...
To those “Americans” attacking the US athletes who are criticizing ICE and the Trump administration, all I have to say is this.
It is unAmerican to sit by meekly as the USA is being decimated by a group of corrupt incompetents, who are shooting US citizens. Deal with it.
It is unAmerican to sit by meekly as the USA is being decimated by a group of corrupt incompetents, who are shooting US citizens. Deal with it.
February 11, 2026 at 9:47 AM
To those “Americans” attacking the US athletes who are criticizing ICE and the Trump administration, all I have to say is this.
It is unAmerican to sit by meekly as the USA is being decimated by a group of corrupt incompetents, who are shooting US citizens. Deal with it.
It is unAmerican to sit by meekly as the USA is being decimated by a group of corrupt incompetents, who are shooting US citizens. Deal with it.
Great new review of my book, War and Power: Who Wins Wars and Why, in @thebulwark.com . The reviewer read the book closely and really understands the argument.
www.thebulwark.com/p/why-war-st...
www.thebulwark.com/p/why-war-st...
Why War Still Surprises
It’s as old as humankind and has been closely studied by great minds—yet it continues to defy predictions.
www.thebulwark.com
February 11, 2026 at 8:54 AM
Great new review of my book, War and Power: Who Wins Wars and Why, in @thebulwark.com . The reviewer read the book closely and really understands the argument.
www.thebulwark.com/p/why-war-st...
www.thebulwark.com/p/why-war-st...
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
Me, navigating the icy streets of Dnipro home, after my wife’s just text me she has just made some syrniki 🇺🇦🇬🇧
February 11, 2026 at 5:55 AM
Me, navigating the icy streets of Dnipro home, after my wife’s just text me she has just made some syrniki 🇺🇦🇬🇧
Hi All, Just sent out this post. Yes, the Ukrainians have a victory strategy that they are developing for 2026. They actually understand their war far better than the many of the failures in the western analytical community. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
A Ukrainian Victory Strategy
This piece started out as a second part to the Ukrainian victory strategy piece I started two weeks ago. It has been sharpened because of two very troubling pieces that have been published in the inte...
open.substack.com
February 10, 2026 at 8:57 AM
Hi All, Just sent out this post. Yes, the Ukrainians have a victory strategy that they are developing for 2026. They actually understand their war far better than the many of the failures in the western analytical community. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
This point needs to be widely broadcast. Not sure the average American is even aware.
The trajectory from, “Trump will give Ukraine to Tomahawks to attack Russia” to “Trump has starved Ukraine of Patriots to help Russia” is the single greatest example of the failure of people to understand what Trump is and has always been.
February 9, 2026 at 5:13 PM
This point needs to be widely broadcast. Not sure the average American is even aware.
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
100% Correct!!!
The trajectory from, “Trump will give Ukraine to Tomahawks to attack Russia” to “Trump has starved Ukraine of Patriots to help Russia” is the single greatest example of the failure of people to understand what Trump is and has always been.
February 9, 2026 at 4:51 PM
100% Correct!!!
The trajectory from, “Trump will give Ukraine to Tomahawks to attack Russia” to “Trump has starved Ukraine of Patriots to help Russia” is the single greatest example of the failure of people to understand what Trump is and has always been.
February 9, 2026 at 4:19 PM
The trajectory from, “Trump will give Ukraine to Tomahawks to attack Russia” to “Trump has starved Ukraine of Patriots to help Russia” is the single greatest example of the failure of people to understand what Trump is and has always been.
The Trump administration seems to have deliberately starved Ukraine of Patriot missiles just when Putin was ramping up the Russian campaign to freeze and kill Ukrainian civilians.
Raise your hand if you think it is a coincidence.
newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/empty-p...
Raise your hand if you think it is a coincidence.
newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/empty-p...
Empty Patriot launchers, Ukraine faced air defense gaps amid Russia's energy strikes — FT
Read more
newsukraine.rbc.ua
February 9, 2026 at 4:02 PM
The Trump administration seems to have deliberately starved Ukraine of Patriot missiles just when Putin was ramping up the Russian campaign to freeze and kill Ukrainian civilians.
Raise your hand if you think it is a coincidence.
newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/empty-p...
Raise your hand if you think it is a coincidence.
newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/empty-p...
Just sent out my free weekend update. The big, tragic, story of the week is that Trump was a direct accomplice in helping Russia commit arguably its largest war crime so far--a double mass attack on Ukrainian civilian life. Trump provided cover for Russian murder. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Weekend Update #171: The Week Trump Helped Putin Commit Two War Crimes
Negotiating Over Ukraine, Europe Must Be There; US Sanctions Again, Really?
open.substack.com
February 8, 2026 at 8:02 AM
Just sent out my free weekend update. The big, tragic, story of the week is that Trump was a direct accomplice in helping Russia commit arguably its largest war crime so far--a double mass attack on Ukrainian civilian life. Trump provided cover for Russian murder. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
I'm always tempted to say something to this effect when I hear people making impossible demands. These criminals are not going to investigate themselves. We had a chance to stop this inevitable crime spree, but American voters completely failed to use their brains or do any due diligence.
Look everyone, for now no one in the Trump administration will be held accountable, no one will be investigated for their corruption or their treason, no one will stop their stealing and their taking of bribes.
The only way this stops is a massive Democratic victory in 2026. That's it.
The only way this stops is a massive Democratic victory in 2026. That's it.
February 7, 2026 at 8:39 PM
I'm always tempted to say something to this effect when I hear people making impossible demands. These criminals are not going to investigate themselves. We had a chance to stop this inevitable crime spree, but American voters completely failed to use their brains or do any due diligence.
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
This is the truth.
Look everyone, for now no one in the Trump administration will be held accountable, no one will be investigated for their corruption or their treason, no one will stop their stealing and their taking of bribes.
The only way this stops is a massive Democratic victory in 2026. That's it.
The only way this stops is a massive Democratic victory in 2026. That's it.
February 7, 2026 at 7:27 PM
This is the truth.
Look everyone, for now no one in the Trump administration will be held accountable, no one will be investigated for their corruption or their treason, no one will stop their stealing and their taking of bribes.
The only way this stops is a massive Democratic victory in 2026. That's it.
The only way this stops is a massive Democratic victory in 2026. That's it.
February 7, 2026 at 7:25 PM
Look everyone, for now no one in the Trump administration will be held accountable, no one will be investigated for their corruption or their treason, no one will stop their stealing and their taking of bribes.
The only way this stops is a massive Democratic victory in 2026. That's it.
The only way this stops is a massive Democratic victory in 2026. That's it.
This story should be retitled. The US is actually funding pro-Putin think tanks, ones that want to end European democracy.
Lets be honest about this.
Lets be honest about this.
US government to fund Maga-aligned think-tanks and charities in Europe ft.trib.al/rg4IDIC
US government to fund Maga-aligned think-tanks and charities in Europe
State department grants to spread ‘American values’ are part of Washington’s 250th anniversary celebrations
ft.trib.al
February 7, 2026 at 12:42 PM
This story should be retitled. The US is actually funding pro-Putin think tanks, ones that want to end European democracy.
Lets be honest about this.
Lets be honest about this.
If this is true--it cements the US-Russian alliance. The USA becomes formally the enemy of freedom. Own up to this Republicans.
⚡️Zelensky says Russia presented $12 trillion economic plan to US, called 'Dmitriev package.'
President Volodymyr Zelensky described it as a proposed framework for large-scale U.S.-Russia economic cooperation.
President Volodymyr Zelensky described it as a proposed framework for large-scale U.S.-Russia economic cooperation.
Zelensky warns of 'risk' US, Russia could strike bilateral deals on Ukraine without Kyiv
"We clearly state that Ukraine will not support even potential agreements about us without us," President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
kyivindependent.com
February 7, 2026 at 12:14 PM
If this is true--it cements the US-Russian alliance. The USA becomes formally the enemy of freedom. Own up to this Republicans.
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
Whoa
Just had a fabulous talk with John Sipher, one of the most experienced CIA officers of his generation. We went into the Epstein files, what they say about Epstein and Russian intelligence, how Epstein kompromat might work to influence Trump… substack.com/@phillipspob...
Live with Phillips P. OBrien and John Sipher
A recording from Phillips P. OBrien's live video
substack.com
February 7, 2026 at 5:52 AM
Whoa
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
2 people who know their shit
Just had a fabulous talk with John Sipher, one of the most experienced CIA officers of his generation. We went into the Epstein files, what they say about Epstein and Russian intelligence, how Epstein kompromat might work to influence Trump… substack.com/@phillipspob...
Live with Phillips P. OBrien and John Sipher
A recording from Phillips P. OBrien's live video
substack.com
February 7, 2026 at 5:45 AM
2 people who know their shit
Anyone shocked by Trump sending out a horribly racist tweet has not been paying attention to anything for, I dont know, the last 10 years....
February 7, 2026 at 5:50 AM
Anyone shocked by Trump sending out a horribly racist tweet has not been paying attention to anything for, I dont know, the last 10 years....