Phillips OBrien
@phillipspobrien.bsky.social
Professor of Strategic Studies, Author, Lover of Sicily
Pinned
War and Power
A bold, revisionist study of modern warfare, showing that military victory is rooted not in large armies and decisive battles, but in the full spectrum of ec...
www.publicaffairsbooks.com
Hi All, my latest book, War and Power: Who Wins Wars and Why, is being released in North America in two weeks. The Publisher, Basic Books/Hatchette, has just released a discount code for 20% if you buy through them. Code is WAR&POWER (not case sensitive). www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/phill...
Its like Trump spends the whole day mooning around, desperate for Putin to ask him to the prom.
December 29, 2025 at 8:31 PM
Its like Trump spends the whole day mooning around, desperate for Putin to ask him to the prom.
A great new episode from @olddogua.bsky.social . Though Trump might go weak at the knees about Russian power, the Russians are actually on the defensive in many areas. Ukraine definitely has some cards to play.
youtu.be/J9tiGudbOp4?...
THE POWER SHIFT:
Russia is no longer shaping the war, it’s defending everything, all of the time.
Catch my latest episode.
🎙️ VOICES FROM THE FRONT
THE POWER SHIFT:
Russia is no longer shaping the war, it’s defending everything, all of the time.
Catch my latest episode.
🎙️ VOICES FROM THE FRONT
THE POWER SHIFT: Russia is now defending everything, and all of the time #ukrainewar
YouTube video by Shaun Pinner
youtu.be
December 29, 2025 at 8:22 PM
A great new episode from @olddogua.bsky.social . Though Trump might go weak at the knees about Russian power, the Russians are actually on the defensive in many areas. Ukraine definitely has some cards to play.
The Russians have tried to assassinate Zelensky many times. Never seems to have bothered Trump.
Trump on a report that Ukraine tried to strike Putin's residence: "I don't like it. It's not good. I heard about it this morning. You know who told me about it? President Putin told me about it ... I was very angry about it."
December 29, 2025 at 6:50 PM
The Russians have tried to assassinate Zelensky many times. Never seems to have bothered Trump.
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
🎯🎯🎯🎯
Just sent out this piece about the Trump-Zelensky-Putin pantomime yesterday. People who think this brought peace closer cannot face the truth. This meeting was a continuation of Trump's efforts to help Putin and demean Ukraine. And he succeeded. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Why the Pantomime? Its Always Been About Defending Putin
And Perhaps Getting A Nobel Prize
open.substack.com
December 29, 2025 at 1:33 PM
🎯🎯🎯🎯
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
Good morning 🎯👇
Just sent out this piece about the Trump-Zelensky-Putin pantomime yesterday. People who think this brought peace closer cannot face the truth. This meeting was a continuation of Trump's efforts to help Putin and demean Ukraine. And he succeeded. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Why the Pantomime? Its Always Been About Defending Putin
And Perhaps Getting A Nobel Prize
open.substack.com
December 29, 2025 at 9:10 AM
Good morning 🎯👇
Just sent out this piece about the Trump-Zelensky-Putin pantomime yesterday. People who think this brought peace closer cannot face the truth. This meeting was a continuation of Trump's efforts to help Putin and demean Ukraine. And he succeeded. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Why the Pantomime? Its Always Been About Defending Putin
And Perhaps Getting A Nobel Prize
open.substack.com
December 29, 2025 at 8:18 AM
Just sent out this piece about the Trump-Zelensky-Putin pantomime yesterday. People who think this brought peace closer cannot face the truth. This meeting was a continuation of Trump's efforts to help Putin and demean Ukraine. And he succeeded. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
So what do we know so far?
Trump called Putin before meeting Zelensky to agree a common position.
Trump publicly stated that Putin seriously wants peace
The Russians have stated that the US and Russia are aligned.
So yeah--this looks like a pantomime so far.
Trump called Putin before meeting Zelensky to agree a common position.
Trump publicly stated that Putin seriously wants peace
The Russians have stated that the US and Russia are aligned.
So yeah--this looks like a pantomime so far.
Hi All, Just sent out my free weekend update. We seem to be in the latest act of the US pantomime of negotiating with Ukraine but actually helping Russia. You would think people would have figured it out by now. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Weekend Update #165: Why the Pantomime?
The Anchorage "Framework"; Storm/Shadow Scalps show the importance of Taurus/Tomahawks
open.substack.com
December 28, 2025 at 6:47 PM
So what do we know so far?
Trump called Putin before meeting Zelensky to agree a common position.
Trump publicly stated that Putin seriously wants peace
The Russians have stated that the US and Russia are aligned.
So yeah--this looks like a pantomime so far.
Trump called Putin before meeting Zelensky to agree a common position.
Trump publicly stated that Putin seriously wants peace
The Russians have stated that the US and Russia are aligned.
So yeah--this looks like a pantomime so far.
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
Good background for the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting today.
Hi All, Just sent out my free weekend update. We seem to be in the latest act of the US pantomime of negotiating with Ukraine but actually helping Russia. You would think people would have figured it out by now. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Weekend Update #165: Why the Pantomime?
The Anchorage "Framework"; Storm/Shadow Scalps show the importance of Taurus/Tomahawks
open.substack.com
December 28, 2025 at 10:42 AM
Good background for the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting today.
Hi All, Just sent out my free weekend update. We seem to be in the latest act of the US pantomime of negotiating with Ukraine but actually helping Russia. You would think people would have figured it out by now. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Weekend Update #165: Why the Pantomime?
The Anchorage "Framework"; Storm/Shadow Scalps show the importance of Taurus/Tomahawks
open.substack.com
December 28, 2025 at 9:41 AM
Hi All, Just sent out my free weekend update. We seem to be in the latest act of the US pantomime of negotiating with Ukraine but actually helping Russia. You would think people would have figured it out by now. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Latest in @theatlantic.com . Naval warfare seems heading in one direction--sinking ships will be easier than protecting them. Ukraine understands that--I am not sure the USA does. www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
A ‘Trump Class’ Folly on the High Seas
Ukraine sees the future of naval warfare. The White House doesn’t.
www.theatlantic.com
December 27, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Latest in @theatlantic.com . Naval warfare seems heading in one direction--sinking ships will be easier than protecting them. Ukraine understands that--I am not sure the USA does. www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
When it comes time to write the history of Europe in this period, there will be one area of consensus. One of the greatest errors European states ever made, was in trusting the USA.
December 27, 2025 at 9:24 AM
When it comes time to write the history of Europe in this period, there will be one area of consensus. One of the greatest errors European states ever made, was in trusting the USA.
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
☠️ Russia loses 1,240 soldiers over past day
Russia loses 1,240 soldiers over past day
Russia has lost 1,240 soldiers killed and wounded, 5 tanks and 19 armoured combat vehicles over the past day.
www.pravda.com.ua
December 27, 2025 at 7:42 AM
☠️ Russia loses 1,240 soldiers over past day
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
Number one source of forecasting errors for experts as well as lay people? Mistaking what we want for what we should expect. Which is why pessimists are pretty consistently more accurate in their predictions.
Hi All, Its the annual column of ritual humiliation, where I dissect, with quotes, the biggest mistakes I made in the past year. There are some great ones where I was wrong. This year, to make the column more helpful, I have even included a lessons learned analysis. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Annual Review 2025: What I Got Wrong
Complete with quotes!
open.substack.com
December 26, 2025 at 11:52 AM
Number one source of forecasting errors for experts as well as lay people? Mistaking what we want for what we should expect. Which is why pessimists are pretty consistently more accurate in their predictions.
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
This example – reflecting on the mistakes you have made as an analyst over the past year – is worth emulating.
Hi All, Its the annual column of ritual humiliation, where I dissect, with quotes, the biggest mistakes I made in the past year. There are some great ones where I was wrong. This year, to make the column more helpful, I have even included a lessons learned analysis. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Annual Review 2025: What I Got Wrong
Complete with quotes!
open.substack.com
December 26, 2025 at 9:53 AM
This example – reflecting on the mistakes you have made as an analyst over the past year – is worth emulating.
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
Meanwhile in 🇬🇧 - very telling that the war analyst most often 🎯 about progress of Russia's genocide war & behaviour of Putin's proxy regime in Rusamerica also most eager to fess up where he was wrong. If only NYT had same capacity for self-correction... 👇
Hi All, Its the annual column of ritual humiliation, where I dissect, with quotes, the biggest mistakes I made in the past year. There are some great ones where I was wrong. This year, to make the column more helpful, I have even included a lessons learned analysis. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Annual Review 2025: What I Got Wrong
Complete with quotes!
open.substack.com
December 26, 2025 at 10:40 AM
Meanwhile in 🇬🇧 - very telling that the war analyst most often 🎯 about progress of Russia's genocide war & behaviour of Putin's proxy regime in Rusamerica also most eager to fess up where he was wrong. If only NYT had same capacity for self-correction... 👇
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
Great piece, & so refreshing to see commentators reflect on their mistakes
I also find it quite cathartic to admit where I have been wrong
I also find it quite cathartic to admit where I have been wrong
Hi All, Its the annual column of ritual humiliation, where I dissect, with quotes, the biggest mistakes I made in the past year. There are some great ones where I was wrong. This year, to make the column more helpful, I have even included a lessons learned analysis. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Annual Review 2025: What I Got Wrong
Complete with quotes!
open.substack.com
December 26, 2025 at 9:41 AM
Great piece, & so refreshing to see commentators reflect on their mistakes
I also find it quite cathartic to admit where I have been wrong
I also find it quite cathartic to admit where I have been wrong
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
Menschen machen Fehler - nur wer nix tut, macht keine Fehler.
Intelligente Menschen geben Fehler zu und lernen aus ihren Fehlern. Diese Eigenschaft ist besonders bei echten Experten wichtig.
Phillips OBrien analysiert seine Fehler von 2025. Und genau DAS macht ihn für mich glaubwürdig! ☝️
Intelligente Menschen geben Fehler zu und lernen aus ihren Fehlern. Diese Eigenschaft ist besonders bei echten Experten wichtig.
Phillips OBrien analysiert seine Fehler von 2025. Und genau DAS macht ihn für mich glaubwürdig! ☝️
Hi All, Its the annual column of ritual humiliation, where I dissect, with quotes, the biggest mistakes I made in the past year. There are some great ones where I was wrong. This year, to make the column more helpful, I have even included a lessons learned analysis. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Annual Review 2025: What I Got Wrong
Complete with quotes!
open.substack.com
December 26, 2025 at 9:17 AM
Menschen machen Fehler - nur wer nix tut, macht keine Fehler.
Intelligente Menschen geben Fehler zu und lernen aus ihren Fehlern. Diese Eigenschaft ist besonders bei echten Experten wichtig.
Phillips OBrien analysiert seine Fehler von 2025. Und genau DAS macht ihn für mich glaubwürdig! ☝️
Intelligente Menschen geben Fehler zu und lernen aus ihren Fehlern. Diese Eigenschaft ist besonders bei echten Experten wichtig.
Phillips OBrien analysiert seine Fehler von 2025. Und genau DAS macht ihn für mich glaubwürdig! ☝️
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
Hi All, Its the annual column of ritual humiliation, where I dissect, with quotes, the biggest mistakes I made in the past year. There are some great ones where I was wrong. This year, to make the column more helpful, I have even included a lessons learned analysis. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Annual Review 2025: What I Got Wrong
Complete with quotes!
open.substack.com
December 26, 2025 at 8:43 AM
Hi All, Its the annual column of ritual humiliation, where I dissect, with quotes, the biggest mistakes I made in the past year. There are some great ones where I was wrong. This year, to make the column more helpful, I have even included a lessons learned analysis. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Conservatives are now applauding the use of state power to control views--and they will undoubtedly suffer the consequences when they lose power in the future. They will have no one to blame then but themselves.
The short-sightedness of all this is breathtaking.
The short-sightedness of all this is breathtaking.
December 25, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Conservatives are now applauding the use of state power to control views--and they will undoubtedly suffer the consequences when they lose power in the future. They will have no one to blame then but themselves.
The short-sightedness of all this is breathtaking.
The short-sightedness of all this is breathtaking.
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
Fascinating, to see this kind of evolution.
All those arguing that Ukraine needs
to draft more soldiers and send them to the front might read this story. united24media.com/latest-news/...
to draft more soldiers and send them to the front might read this story. united24media.com/latest-news/...
Ukrainian Ground Drone With Machine Gun Defends Frontline Position Solo for 45 Days
A Ukrainian ground combat drone defended a frontline position for 45 days, using machine-gun fire to thwart Russian advances without infantry support.
united24media.com
December 24, 2025 at 10:35 AM
Fascinating, to see this kind of evolution.
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
“In the morally inverted universe of the plan, there is no distinction between perpetrator and victim, aggressor and defender, militarised dictatorship and democracy.”
An important point that needs to be made on the AEI website. The best deal that the Trump administration is willing to offer Ukraine is still an abomination. Trump has so warped expectations that too many can’t admit this. @kschake.bsky.social
www.aei.org/articles/tru...
www.aei.org/articles/tru...
www.aei.org
December 24, 2025 at 5:21 PM
“In the morally inverted universe of the plan, there is no distinction between perpetrator and victim, aggressor and defender, militarised dictatorship and democracy.”
An important point that needs to be made on the AEI website. The best deal that the Trump administration is willing to offer Ukraine is still an abomination. Trump has so warped expectations that too many can’t admit this. @kschake.bsky.social
www.aei.org/articles/tru...
www.aei.org/articles/tru...
www.aei.org
December 24, 2025 at 5:04 PM
An important point that needs to be made on the AEI website. The best deal that the Trump administration is willing to offer Ukraine is still an abomination. Trump has so warped expectations that too many can’t admit this. @kschake.bsky.social
www.aei.org/articles/tru...
www.aei.org/articles/tru...
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
Impressive.
All those arguing that Ukraine needs
to draft more soldiers and send them to the front might read this story. united24media.com/latest-news/...
to draft more soldiers and send them to the front might read this story. united24media.com/latest-news/...
Ukrainian Ground Drone With Machine Gun Defends Frontline Position Solo for 45 Days
A Ukrainian ground combat drone defended a frontline position for 45 days, using machine-gun fire to thwart Russian advances without infantry support.
united24media.com
December 23, 2025 at 6:27 PM
Impressive.