Ruth Deyermond
@ruthdeyermond.bsky.social
Senior Lecturer, Department of War Studies, King's College London. Russian foreign & security policy, US foreign policy, US-Russia relations, European security. Views are my own.
Pinned
It's New Year, so time to look back and forward. These are 10 things I think we need to recognise in 2026. It’s a response to what I think are profoundly damaging mistaken assumptions I’ve heard and read from practitioners, journalists, and analysts in 2025. Warning: very long🧵
The administration thinks it's in a multipolar world of competing great powers and spheres of influence but also in a unipolar world sustained by American exceptionalism. Because it doesn't know much about IR, it doesn't understand its error. 🧵
Donald Trump is trying something risky: the half-abandonment of allies. He is willing to do much less for the defence of Europe and NATO, but still expects allies to do as America says. That’s not a stable relationship and trust is crumbling. My column from #MSC2026
economist.com/internationa...
economist.com/internationa...
Donald Trump’s envoys failed to reassure Europe
A gathering of world leaders in Munich shows how trust has collapsed
economist.com
February 18, 2026 at 1:11 PM
The administration thinks it's in a multipolar world of competing great powers and spheres of influence but also in a unipolar world sustained by American exceptionalism. Because it doesn't know much about IR, it doesn't understand its error. 🧵
There will be people who are understandably desperate to hear this, but it's important to be clear-eyed about Rubio himself and what the Trump administration is doing. 🧵
February 14, 2026 at 12:56 PM
There will be people who are understandably desperate to hear this, but it's important to be clear-eyed about Rubio himself and what the Trump administration is doing. 🧵
From the start, the focus of the Trump administration's approach to Ukraine has been on US enrichment, friendly relations with Russia, and getting everyone else to treat Russia like a great power. The survival of Ukraine and European security are entirely irrelevant.
February 7, 2026 at 12:57 PM
From the start, the focus of the Trump administration's approach to Ukraine has been on US enrichment, friendly relations with Russia, and getting everyone else to treat Russia like a great power. The survival of Ukraine and European security are entirely irrelevant.
One important side effect of Mandelson's fall: a proper investigation into, and pushback against, Russian influence in UK politics may now be more possible. It's long overdue.
For years, the UK has been allergic to talking about the issue of Russian influence in its politics, partly because neither of the traditional main parties has historically spotless on the issue of relations with Russian oligarchs.
February 5, 2026 at 10:36 PM
One important side effect of Mandelson's fall: a proper investigation into, and pushback against, Russian influence in UK politics may now be more possible. It's long overdue.
This kind of detail is many, many storeys below the presidential pay grade but it's Trump's comfort zone. He may not be able to explain his foreign policy coherently at Davos (or anywhere else) but he's all over the detail of the Kennedy Center's steel and marble.
Q: Do you plan on tearing the Kennedy Center down and how much will all of the renovations cost?
TRUMP: Probably around $200 million. I'm not ripping it down. I'll be using the steel. So we're using the structure. We're using some of the marble.
TRUMP: Probably around $200 million. I'm not ripping it down. I'll be using the steel. So we're using the structure. We're using some of the marble.
February 2, 2026 at 11:27 PM
This kind of detail is many, many storeys below the presidential pay grade but it's Trump's comfort zone. He may not be able to explain his foreign policy coherently at Davos (or anywhere else) but he's all over the detail of the Kennedy Center's steel and marble.
Re-reading this after many years (inspired by @davidallengreen.bsky.social). When the 2nd edition I own was published in 1937, things were obviously much worse than when it was first published in 1935, but what was happening just a few years later was still unimaginable. And here we are again.
February 2, 2026 at 1:00 AM
Re-reading this after many years (inspired by @davidallengreen.bsky.social). When the 2nd edition I own was published in 1937, things were obviously much worse than when it was first published in 1935, but what was happening just a few years later was still unimaginable. And here we are again.
"For more than 80 years, the US was the pre-eminent ally of Europe. The end of that alliance has seemed unthinkable, but it has nevertheless arrived, and wishing that things were different will not bring the alliance back to life." I wrote for @cepa.org on a post-US West. cepa.org/article/a-we...
A West Without America
The world is becoming a more troubled and dangerous place. Europe’s rift with the US must produce a new security deal for the West.
cepa.org
January 28, 2026 at 7:11 PM
"For more than 80 years, the US was the pre-eminent ally of Europe. The end of that alliance has seemed unthinkable, but it has nevertheless arrived, and wishing that things were different will not bring the alliance back to life." I wrote for @cepa.org on a post-US West. cepa.org/article/a-we...
As I suggested was likely at the time of the 28 point US "peace" plan, when it was being claimed by some commentators that the proposed use of frozen Russian assets for reconstruction was evidence that not just Ukraine but also Russia was being expected to make concessions.
January 26, 2026 at 12:47 AM
As I suggested was likely at the time of the 28 point US "peace" plan, when it was being claimed by some commentators that the proposed use of frozen Russian assets for reconstruction was evidence that not just Ukraine but also Russia was being expected to make concessions.
Reposted by Ruth Deyermond
We are Christopher Isherwood, watching the increasingly violent scenes of government thuggery and murder in the Berlin street below from our apartment window above.
January 24, 2026 at 4:21 PM
We are Christopher Isherwood, watching the increasingly violent scenes of government thuggery and murder in the Berlin street below from our apartment window above.
Europeans and Canadians have spent the last year trying to engage with the Trump administration seriously on the most important and sensitive issues of security and international stability. The people they're dealing with are profoundly ignorant, and don't think that matters.
January 24, 2026 at 2:42 PM
Europeans and Canadians have spent the last year trying to engage with the Trump administration seriously on the most important and sensitive issues of security and international stability. The people they're dealing with are profoundly ignorant, and don't think that matters.
Among other things, Trump's insecurity about his age was on display in his speech yesterday. He described himself as "among the older" in the room, and winced as he said it. He's actually the oldest: older than any other NATO or G7 head of govt, older than Modi, Putin, and Xi.
January 22, 2026 at 2:37 PM
Among other things, Trump's insecurity about his age was on display in his speech yesterday. He described himself as "among the older" in the room, and winced as he said it. He's actually the oldest: older than any other NATO or G7 head of govt, older than Modi, Putin, and Xi.
Trump's speech included a line that any non-US NATO policymakers breathing a sigh of relief today should note: he doesn't see the point of defending territory the US doesn't own. Which would seem to rule out Article V.
January 22, 2026 at 11:50 AM
Trump's speech included a line that any non-US NATO policymakers breathing a sigh of relief today should note: he doesn't see the point of defending territory the US doesn't own. Which would seem to rule out Article V.
If the US is genuinely worried about a Russian threat in the Arctic then the best way to address it would be to destroy Russia's capacity for military aggression by helping Ukraine to win.
January 22, 2026 at 12:28 AM
If the US is genuinely worried about a Russian threat in the Arctic then the best way to address it would be to destroy Russia's capacity for military aggression by helping Ukraine to win.
The Trump administration apparently blinking first on economic war with Europe is good news. If everyone can slow-walk talks on a "deal" it will be even better. But it would be dangerous to assume the crisis is definitely over. And I don't think the damage to NATO can be undone.
January 21, 2026 at 10:03 PM
The Trump administration apparently blinking first on economic war with Europe is good news. If everyone can slow-walk talks on a "deal" it will be even better. But it would be dangerous to assume the crisis is definitely over. And I don't think the damage to NATO can be undone.
Lots of stories about Trump saying he won't use force to take Greenland. He said that, but also that the US "probably won't get anything, unless I decide to use excessive strength and force", so I wouldn't take this at face value. Here's the whole, mad section of the speech:
January 21, 2026 at 7:57 PM
Lots of stories about Trump saying he won't use force to take Greenland. He said that, but also that the US "probably won't get anything, unless I decide to use excessive strength and force", so I wouldn't take this at face value. Here's the whole, mad section of the speech:
So, if I understand correctly, the US needs to own Greenland because of the threats from new weapons belong to *checks notes* the US, and from Russia and China whose military technology is apparently a bit rubbish. Makes perfect sense.
January 21, 2026 at 2:48 PM
So, if I understand correctly, the US needs to own Greenland because of the threats from new weapons belong to *checks notes* the US, and from Russia and China whose military technology is apparently a bit rubbish. Makes perfect sense.
If all this is really about bolstering Greenland's capabilities, as Graham is claiming, why is the White House so angry about other NATO states bolstering Greenland's capabilities? And why couldn't the US have done it within existing frameworks that allow for a US military presence?
January 21, 2026 at 12:33 PM
If all this is really about bolstering Greenland's capabilities, as Graham is claiming, why is the White House so angry about other NATO states bolstering Greenland's capabilities? And why couldn't the US have done it within existing frameworks that allow for a US military presence?
Of course the NATO Secretary General isn't going to further inflame things by commenting in public, but he must know that this is nothing like Greece-Turkey. The US has been the dominant state NATO, the primary security provider, and it's now threatening to invade a fellow member.
Listening to Rutte. Pressed on Greenland, cites precedent of Greece Turkey tensions and says shouldn't comment in public because if he does then won't be able to address the issue in private. "I'm working on this issue behind the scenes...statements from me will not add anything"
January 21, 2026 at 10:56 AM
Of course the NATO Secretary General isn't going to further inflame things by commenting in public, but he must know that this is nothing like Greece-Turkey. The US has been the dominant state NATO, the primary security provider, and it's now threatening to invade a fellow member.
Reposted by Ruth Deyermond
I think a bit of mourning is appropriate. The liberal international order got a lot of flack, it was hard to explain (was it even real?), US hypocrisy, etc. But frankly it is the best global order that ever existed. The goal should be to salvage as much as possible. The alternative is so much worse.
“The old order is not coming back. We should not mourn it. Nostalgia is not a strategy.”
As a piece of prose and geopolitical analysis Carney’s Davos speech feels history-making. paulwells.substack.com/p/the-carney...
As a piece of prose and geopolitical analysis Carney’s Davos speech feels history-making. paulwells.substack.com/p/the-carney...
The Carney doctrine
Open comment thread on the PM's Davos speech
paulwells.substack.com
January 20, 2026 at 8:55 PM
I think a bit of mourning is appropriate. The liberal international order got a lot of flack, it was hard to explain (was it even real?), US hypocrisy, etc. But frankly it is the best global order that ever existed. The goal should be to salvage as much as possible. The alternative is so much worse.
So as is typical, in his interminable presser Trump dodged answering on Greenland and NATO. But he was notably less combative than in his social media posts and his note to the Norwegian PM. Whether that's because he's less coherent when speaking or because he's walking back slightly, isn't clear
January 20, 2026 at 9:10 PM
So as is typical, in his interminable presser Trump dodged answering on Greenland and NATO. But he was notably less combative than in his social media posts and his note to the Norwegian PM. Whether that's because he's less coherent when speaking or because he's walking back slightly, isn't clear
Everyone in Europe is having intense debates about the future of the transatlantic security alliance. Meanwhile, the president of the United States is reposting the claim that the real enemy of the US isn't Russia or China, it's NATO (and the UN and Islam).
January 20, 2026 at 5:15 PM
Everyone in Europe is having intense debates about the future of the transatlantic security alliance. Meanwhile, the president of the United States is reposting the claim that the real enemy of the US isn't Russia or China, it's NATO (and the UN and Islam).
In the year since Trump's 2nd inauguration, things have been as bad as the worst projections of the most pessimistic of us, and they are rapidly getting worse. But at least the extremity of the crisis has finally forced key European figures to acknowledge where we are.
Europe is facing its most dangerous moment since the early 1940s: its primary security relationship is, at best, severely compromised and its primary threat, Russia, thinks that it now has influence in the White House.
January 20, 2026 at 3:11 PM
In the year since Trump's 2nd inauguration, things have been as bad as the worst projections of the most pessimistic of us, and they are rapidly getting worse. But at least the extremity of the crisis has finally forced key European figures to acknowledge where we are.
Was on on Radio 4's PM earlier, discussing Trump, Greenland, and the future of NATO with Evan Davis and Max Hastings. If anyone's interested (though only if you're in the UK, I think), it starts at about 49:30 here: www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
PM - 19/01/2026 - BBC Sounds
News and current affairs, reporting on breaking stories and summing up the day's headlines
www.bbc.co.uk
January 19, 2026 at 6:48 PM
Was on on Radio 4's PM earlier, discussing Trump, Greenland, and the future of NATO with Evan Davis and Max Hastings. If anyone's interested (though only if you're in the UK, I think), it starts at about 49:30 here: www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
Update to Nixon's Madman Theory: now with no theory, but with an actual madman.
January 19, 2026 at 10:39 AM
Update to Nixon's Madman Theory: now with no theory, but with an actual madman.
This is a very good point. The November 2025 US National Security Strategy never mentions the Arctic at all. The idea that it's a genuine security priority for the Trump administration is not credible.
January 18, 2026 at 6:07 PM
This is a very good point. The November 2025 US National Security Strategy never mentions the Arctic at all. The idea that it's a genuine security priority for the Trump administration is not credible.