Ruth Deyermond
@ruthdeyermond.bsky.social
Senior Lecturer, Department of War Studies, King's College London. Russian foreign & security policy, US foreign policy, US-Russia relations, European security. Views are my own.
Putin is the Hyacinth Bucket of great power leaders: it's all about keeping up appearances. Russia's a great power only to the extent that it can persuade others it is, because there's very little material basis for its pretensions to great power status. That's why Trump's deference is so important.
November 28, 2025 at 8:35 PM
Putin is the Hyacinth Bucket of great power leaders: it's all about keeping up appearances. Russia's a great power only to the extent that it can persuade others it is, because there's very little material basis for its pretensions to great power status. That's why Trump's deference is so important.
@telegraph.co.uk have generally been excellent on Russia's invasion, but this is a headline that belongs in the 19th century. The US president can't "hand" Ukraine's land to the Russian president, however much he wants to. Trump can only take a position on US recognition, nothing else.
November 28, 2025 at 7:10 PM
@telegraph.co.uk have generally been excellent on Russia's invasion, but this is a headline that belongs in the 19th century. The US president can't "hand" Ukraine's land to the Russian president, however much he wants to. Trump can only take a position on US recognition, nothing else.
That's not how peace agreements work. Getting something on a promise of payment and then not paying is, however, exactly how Donald Trump works. Ukraine and European NATO/the EU would be extremely foolish to fall for this. kyivindependent.com/us-to-discus...
November 27, 2025 at 3:00 PM
That's not how peace agreements work. Getting something on a promise of payment and then not paying is, however, exactly how Donald Trump works. Ukraine and European NATO/the EU would be extremely foolish to fall for this. kyivindependent.com/us-to-discus...
In his 2nd term, Trump has surrounded himself with individuals like Witkoff, Musk, Vance, and Gabbard who share his positive view of Russia, his negative view of Ukraine, and/or his hostility to Europe. This seems unlikely to be an accident.
November 26, 2025 at 11:00 AM
In his 2nd term, Trump has surrounded himself with individuals like Witkoff, Musk, Vance, and Gabbard who share his positive view of Russia, his negative view of Ukraine, and/or his hostility to Europe. This seems unlikely to be an accident.
What "Ukraine" means here isn't defined. According to the nonsensical clause 21 "Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognized as de facto Russian" which implies that legally they will still be part of Ukraine (though also not in Donetsk's case, apparently).
November 23, 2025 at 2:37 PM
What "Ukraine" means here isn't defined. According to the nonsensical clause 21 "Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognized as de facto Russian" which implies that legally they will still be part of Ukraine (though also not in Donetsk's case, apparently).
Have been thinking about comments from people saying the "peace plan" also includes things that Russia won't like, and citing the use of Russia's frozen assets for reconstruction of Ukraine. But nothing in the plan says the money couldn't be spent in Russian-occupied Ukraine.
November 23, 2025 at 2:37 PM
Have been thinking about comments from people saying the "peace plan" also includes things that Russia won't like, and citing the use of Russia's frozen assets for reconstruction of Ukraine. But nothing in the plan says the money couldn't be spent in Russian-occupied Ukraine.
Friday: "Sign this by Thanksgiving or it's all over for you."
Saturday: "This is nothing to do with us, some other boys wrote it."
Sunday: "By 'some other boys wrote it', of course I meant some other boys wrote the denial that we wrote it. Here's my lunch money."
Saturday: "This is nothing to do with us, some other boys wrote it."
Sunday: "By 'some other boys wrote it', of course I meant some other boys wrote the denial that we wrote it. Here's my lunch money."
November 23, 2025 at 10:30 AM
Friday: "Sign this by Thanksgiving or it's all over for you."
Saturday: "This is nothing to do with us, some other boys wrote it."
Sunday: "By 'some other boys wrote it', of course I meant some other boys wrote the denial that we wrote it. Here's my lunch money."
Saturday: "This is nothing to do with us, some other boys wrote it."
Sunday: "By 'some other boys wrote it', of course I meant some other boys wrote the denial that we wrote it. Here's my lunch money."
And don't forget that under the terms of the 28 point plan, someone, presumably Ukraine, will be paying the US for this. It's a protection racket, which is how Trump understands all security relationships. And like all protection rackets, it's all racket and no protection.
November 21, 2025 at 9:18 PM
And don't forget that under the terms of the 28 point plan, someone, presumably Ukraine, will be paying the US for this. It's a protection racket, which is how Trump understands all security relationships. And like all protection rackets, it's all racket and no protection.
Although NATO members have no decision-making power under the terms of this security guarantee, they are required to act if the US president says so. It also makes no provision for them acting independently - e.g. if they thought Russia had breached the ceasefire.
November 21, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Although NATO members have no decision-making power under the terms of this security guarantee, they are required to act if the US president says so. It also makes no provision for them acting independently - e.g. if they thought Russia had breached the ceasefire.
But the consultations with Ukraine, NATO, and the mysterious non-NATO European partners have no necessary influence on the decision to take action - it's a decision that lies with the US president alone.
November 21, 2025 at 8:07 PM
But the consultations with Ukraine, NATO, and the mysterious non-NATO European partners have no necessary influence on the decision to take action - it's a decision that lies with the US president alone.
The wording of this is interesting, too. Who are the non-NATO "European partners" to be consulted before the US president decides whether to act - Ireland? Switzerland? Seems unlikely. Given this part of the 28 point plan, Russia would qualify as a European partner.
November 21, 2025 at 8:07 PM
The wording of this is interesting, too. Who are the non-NATO "European partners" to be consulted before the US president decides whether to act - Ireland? Switzerland? Seems unlikely. Given this part of the 28 point plan, Russia would qualify as a European partner.
The proposed security guarantee is clear that *only* the US president decides what action would be taken in the event that it's determined there's been a Russian breach. Ukraine, NATO and "European partners" are consulted, but they aren't given a decision-making role here.
November 21, 2025 at 8:07 PM
The proposed security guarantee is clear that *only* the US president decides what action would be taken in the event that it's determined there's been a Russian breach. Ukraine, NATO and "European partners" are consulted, but they aren't given a decision-making role here.
The proposed security guarantee is allegedly modelled on NATO Article 5, but that doesn't contain any of these qualifications for action, let alone all of them.
November 21, 2025 at 8:07 PM
The proposed security guarantee is allegedly modelled on NATO Article 5, but that doesn't contain any of these qualifications for action, let alone all of them.
If the Trump administration are trying to coerce the Ukrainian govt into agreeing to this, plus ceding territory, what should that tell us about them? Ukraine and the rest of Europe would never again be secure if this happened; the Trump administration aren't interested in that.
November 19, 2025 at 11:50 PM
If the Trump administration are trying to coerce the Ukrainian govt into agreeing to this, plus ceding territory, what should that tell us about them? Ukraine and the rest of Europe would never again be secure if this happened; the Trump administration aren't interested in that.
As always, this is what the Trump administration is focused on when it says its negotiating to end the war in Ukraine. And to be clear: they don't want to "restore" US-Russia ties, they seem to want a completely new kind of US relationship with Russia. 🧵
November 19, 2025 at 4:03 PM
As always, this is what the Trump administration is focused on when it says its negotiating to end the war in Ukraine. And to be clear: they don't want to "restore" US-Russia ties, they seem to want a completely new kind of US relationship with Russia. 🧵
This, of course, is exactly the argument Trump used about Crimea in 2018. Not surprising that the man he picked for this job shares his Russia-favouring, profoundly stupid, view.
October 19, 2025 at 11:27 AM
This, of course, is exactly the argument Trump used about Crimea in 2018. Not surprising that the man he picked for this job shares his Russia-favouring, profoundly stupid, view.
Classic response to this over on twitter. May have to change my bio to include it.
October 17, 2025 at 8:54 PM
Classic response to this over on twitter. May have to change my bio to include it.
This does not sound as if the Trump administration is interested in a drones for Tomahawks deal.
October 17, 2025 at 6:39 PM
This does not sound as if the Trump administration is interested in a drones for Tomahawks deal.
As ever, the "this time he's really going to put serious pressure on Trump" line, coming out of the administration via the media and many commentators on here, is undermined when Trump speaks to Putin and then talks about it.
October 16, 2025 at 6:32 PM
As ever, the "this time he's really going to put serious pressure on Trump" line, coming out of the administration via the media and many commentators on here, is undermined when Trump speaks to Putin and then talks about it.
I'm shocked to discover that a senior member of a party run by Nigel Farage had a dodgy relationship with Russia.
September 26, 2025 at 2:27 PM
I'm shocked to discover that a senior member of a party run by Nigel Farage had a dodgy relationship with Russia.
It's said of totalitarian societies that anything that isn't compulsory is forbidden. Using the same logic, Putin is saying that anything that isn't capitulation is war. That's actually helpful because it shows European policymakers there's no area of compromise with Russia.
September 25, 2025 at 2:34 PM
It's said of totalitarian societies that anything that isn't compulsory is forbidden. Using the same logic, Putin is saying that anything that isn't capitulation is war. That's actually helpful because it shows European policymakers there's no area of compromise with Russia.
Exactly. The logic of this position is that resisting any Russian incursion into NATO territory would be an act of war. Shooting down a plane? War. Stopping a tank crossing into Estonia? War. Resisting Russian troops invading Finland? War. 🙄
September 25, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Exactly. The logic of this position is that resisting any Russian incursion into NATO territory would be an act of war. Shooting down a plane? War. Stopping a tank crossing into Estonia? War. Resisting Russian troops invading Finland? War. 🙄
What's really striking about Trump's Truth Social post of yesterday is not some empty words about Ukraine's chances of victory (empty because he will do nothing to help), but that he writes as if the US is outside NATO, not part of it.
September 24, 2025 at 3:30 PM
What's really striking about Trump's Truth Social post of yesterday is not some empty words about Ukraine's chances of victory (empty because he will do nothing to help), but that he writes as if the US is outside NATO, not part of it.
This is the response of the US president to the most serious act of Russian aggression against NATO since the end of the Cold War. Not even a criticism of Russia or a message of solidarity with one of the US's most steadfast allies, let alone a sign the US will take any action.
September 10, 2025 at 6:48 PM
This is the response of the US president to the most serious act of Russian aggression against NATO since the end of the Cold War. Not even a criticism of Russia or a message of solidarity with one of the US's most steadfast allies, let alone a sign the US will take any action.
This is the most pathetic and undignified thing I've ever seen a US president do in the area of foreign policy. It makes George Bush Snr throwing up over the Japanese Prime Minister look like an act of brilliant diplomacy.
September 10, 2025 at 6:47 PM
This is the most pathetic and undignified thing I've ever seen a US president do in the area of foreign policy. It makes George Bush Snr throwing up over the Japanese Prime Minister look like an act of brilliant diplomacy.