Armida van Rij
@armida.bsky.social
Senior Research Fellow @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social. Ex-Chatham House & King's College London. European security, defence & politics.
🔗 https://www.cer.eu/personnel/armida-van-rij
🔗 https://www.cer.eu/personnel/armida-van-rij
Pinned
Trump, Silicon Valley, and Europe’s Far-right - International Centre for Defence and Security
A new transatlantic alliance is forming. The old partnership was based on advancing liberal democracy, upholding the rules-based international order, and a security contract between the US and Europe....
icds.ee
And a deeper dive into the ties between Silicon Valley libertarians, MAGA, US Big Tech and the European far right and what it means for European security, and how the EU should respond (hint: the answer is not to deregulate tech).
icds.ee/en/trump_sil...
icds.ee/en/trump_sil...
Reposted by Armida van Rij
Nina Jankowicz: “They’re not doing this because they have any evidence of censorship — they lost a Supreme Court case that made those claims… They’re doing this because the group of researchers and advocates have stood up to liars like Donald Trump and the platforms that enable them.”
“Chilling and unconstitutional” — @attorneynora.bsky.social @freepress.bsky.social
U.S. Bars 5 European Tech Regulators and Researchers
www.nytimes.com
December 24, 2025 at 6:33 AM
Nina Jankowicz: “They’re not doing this because they have any evidence of censorship — they lost a Supreme Court case that made those claims… They’re doing this because the group of researchers and advocates have stood up to liars like Donald Trump and the platforms that enable them.”
Reposted by Armida van Rij
EU Commission response to US sanctions imposed upon advocates of regulating social media ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
December 24, 2025 at 11:05 AM
EU Commission response to US sanctions imposed upon advocates of regulating social media ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
Meanwhile, NL is reeling from Nile Gardiner (Heritage) telling the Dutch public broadcaster in an interview he 'wants to see the end of the EU' (following an article he wrote a few days ago).
The Dutch are not strongly pro-EU, but they really dislike Trump - hoping for a rally around 🇪🇺 flag effect
The Dutch are not strongly pro-EU, but they really dislike Trump - hoping for a rally around 🇪🇺 flag effect
It's not just Breton either, but also current directors of NGOs working on disinformation and to counter hate speech online in Europr. This will have a major chilling effect on European other NGOs and think tanks working in this space too. US admin showing the NSS means business.
In a major escalation against the EU, alongside civil society representatives the Trump Administration sanctions former Commissioner Breton for work he did in official capacity ↘️ www.state.gov/releases/off...
December 23, 2025 at 10:44 PM
Meanwhile, NL is reeling from Nile Gardiner (Heritage) telling the Dutch public broadcaster in an interview he 'wants to see the end of the EU' (following an article he wrote a few days ago).
The Dutch are not strongly pro-EU, but they really dislike Trump - hoping for a rally around 🇪🇺 flag effect
The Dutch are not strongly pro-EU, but they really dislike Trump - hoping for a rally around 🇪🇺 flag effect
It's unfortunate how often I've had to pull this article out of the drawer recently, but I wrote about what happens when US tech interests converge with the administrations' ideologues earlier this year (and have a continuation of this piece which brings in the NSS out soon).
icds.ee/en/trump_sil...
icds.ee/en/trump_sil...
December 23, 2025 at 10:15 PM
It's unfortunate how often I've had to pull this article out of the drawer recently, but I wrote about what happens when US tech interests converge with the administrations' ideologues earlier this year (and have a continuation of this piece which brings in the NSS out soon).
icds.ee/en/trump_sil...
icds.ee/en/trump_sil...
It's not just Breton either, but also current directors of NGOs working on disinformation and to counter hate speech online in Europr. This will have a major chilling effect on European other NGOs and think tanks working in this space too. US admin showing the NSS means business.
In a major escalation against the EU, alongside civil society representatives the Trump Administration sanctions former Commissioner Breton for work he did in official capacity ↘️ www.state.gov/releases/off...
Announcement of Actions to Combat the Global Censorship-Industrial Complex - United States Department of State
The State Department is taking decisive action against five individuals who have led organized efforts to coerce American platforms to censor, demonetize, and suppress American viewpoints they oppose....
www.state.gov
December 23, 2025 at 10:10 PM
It's not just Breton either, but also current directors of NGOs working on disinformation and to counter hate speech online in Europr. This will have a major chilling effect on European other NGOs and think tanks working in this space too. US admin showing the NSS means business.
Reposted by Armida van Rij
Despite nearly four years of full-scale war in Ukraine and Western sanctions, Russia’s regime remains remarkably resilient, with experts rating its stability at 7.3/10. This stability relies heavily on Putin's position and elite cohesion.
Russia stability index: www.clingendael.org/publication/...
Russia stability index: www.clingendael.org/publication/...
Assessing the strength and stability of the Russian regime
Too weak to thrive, too strong to fall?
www.clingendael.org
December 22, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Despite nearly four years of full-scale war in Ukraine and Western sanctions, Russia’s regime remains remarkably resilient, with experts rating its stability at 7.3/10. This stability relies heavily on Putin's position and elite cohesion.
Russia stability index: www.clingendael.org/publication/...
Russia stability index: www.clingendael.org/publication/...
"For much of the past century, the US fought wars to spread an ideology. Today, the ideology it seeks to propagate is nativism. In pursuit of this ideology, it declared war on its own residents by setting in motion ICE raids on the streets of American cities."
globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...
globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...
The Unshared Futures of the United States and Europe
America and Europe have been bound together for more than 250 years. Whose ideology will define their future?
globalaffairs.org
December 18, 2025 at 4:26 PM
"For much of the past century, the US fought wars to spread an ideology. Today, the ideology it seeks to propagate is nativism. In pursuit of this ideology, it declared war on its own residents by setting in motion ICE raids on the streets of American cities."
globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...
globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...
Europe is the frog that's being boiled. The cumulative effect of Russian sub-threshold warfare is an erosion of the public's trust in institutions, fraying social cohesion in Europe.
The below is an excellent investigation/resource with all (publicly known) instances of interference in one place 👏
The below is an excellent investigation/resource with all (publicly known) instances of interference in one place 👏
I've tracked 145 cases of sabotage and disruption @apnews.com that Western officials blame on Russia.
They say Moscow wants to drain Europe's security resources and identify weak spots.
Arson & explosives plots particularly increased:
2023: 1
2024: 26
2025: 6
apnews.com/projects/rus...
They say Moscow wants to drain Europe's security resources and identify weak spots.
Arson & explosives plots particularly increased:
2023: 1
2024: 26
2025: 6
apnews.com/projects/rus...
Russia wants to drain Europe's security resources with sabotage campaign, officials say | AP News
The Associated Press has tracked 145 cases of sabotage and disruption that Western officials blame on Russia since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. They say Moscow wants to drain Europe’s investigative r...
apnews.com
December 18, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Europe is the frog that's being boiled. The cumulative effect of Russian sub-threshold warfare is an erosion of the public's trust in institutions, fraying social cohesion in Europe.
The below is an excellent investigation/resource with all (publicly known) instances of interference in one place 👏
The below is an excellent investigation/resource with all (publicly known) instances of interference in one place 👏
Reposted by Armida van Rij
D-Day for Europe to shore up Ukraine funding.
As EU leaders huddle in Brussels, Stephen Paduano and I analyse the reparations loan in a new piece.
This is not only a "There Is No Alternative" (TINA) moment—but the financial and legal risks are also manageable.
1/
www.cer.eu/insights/ukr...
As EU leaders huddle in Brussels, Stephen Paduano and I analyse the reparations loan in a new piece.
This is not only a "There Is No Alternative" (TINA) moment—but the financial and legal risks are also manageable.
1/
www.cer.eu/insights/ukr...
The Ukraine Reparations Loan: How to fix Europe's financial plumbing
As US support for Ukraine vanishes, Europe must overcome Belgian opposition and improvise fiscally to provide Kyiv with €210 billion.
www.cer.eu
December 18, 2025 at 1:19 PM
D-Day for Europe to shore up Ukraine funding.
As EU leaders huddle in Brussels, Stephen Paduano and I analyse the reparations loan in a new piece.
This is not only a "There Is No Alternative" (TINA) moment—but the financial and legal risks are also manageable.
1/
www.cer.eu/insights/ukr...
As EU leaders huddle in Brussels, Stephen Paduano and I analyse the reparations loan in a new piece.
This is not only a "There Is No Alternative" (TINA) moment—but the financial and legal risks are also manageable.
1/
www.cer.eu/insights/ukr...
Reposted by Armida van Rij
As some EU leaders lose sight of the big picture in Russia’s war of aggression, reminder of 2 of my pieces: this on consequences if Ukraine loses: www.cer.eu/publications... ; & this on what Europe must do to ensure it doesn't: www.cer.eu/publications.... Only change: funding UA is now more urgent.
Does it matter if Ukraine loses?
Ukraine is retreating and Russia is advancing, militarily and politically. Western leaders seem to underestimate both the impact of Ukraine’s defeat and the West’s ability to prevent it.
www.cer.eu
December 18, 2025 at 10:16 AM
As some EU leaders lose sight of the big picture in Russia’s war of aggression, reminder of 2 of my pieces: this on consequences if Ukraine loses: www.cer.eu/publications... ; & this on what Europe must do to ensure it doesn't: www.cer.eu/publications.... Only change: funding UA is now more urgent.
Reposted by Armida van Rij
Pleased to contribute to @global-affairs.bsky.social series reflecting on the US at 250.
I wrote about the US & Europe's unshared futures, & ask whether their future will be based on democracy, human rights & rule of law - or on the nativism the US seeks to export globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...
I wrote about the US & Europe's unshared futures, & ask whether their future will be based on democracy, human rights & rule of law - or on the nativism the US seeks to export globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...
The Unshared Futures of the United States and Europe
America and Europe have been bound together for more than 250 years. Whose ideology will define their future?
globalaffairs.org
December 17, 2025 at 9:37 AM
Pleased to contribute to @global-affairs.bsky.social series reflecting on the US at 250.
I wrote about the US & Europe's unshared futures, & ask whether their future will be based on democracy, human rights & rule of law - or on the nativism the US seeks to export globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...
I wrote about the US & Europe's unshared futures, & ask whether their future will be based on democracy, human rights & rule of law - or on the nativism the US seeks to export globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...
In this version of the National Defense Authorization Act, the administration can't reduce troop numbers in Europe to below 76,000 without going via Congress and allies first - ie stabilising numbers around the pre-2022 surge mark. Of course we're still waiting for the force posture review...
The #US Senate passed #Congress’s $900B #defense policy bill, also asserting congressional oversight of US defense policy by requiring the DOD to consult with lawmakers before withdrawing troops from South Korea & #Europe, restructuring global military commands www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
Senate passes Pentagon bill urging Hegseth to disclose boat strike evidence
The sprawling legislation includes a provision seeking video and other materials detailing the Trump administration’s military activities in Latin America.
www.washingtonpost.com
December 17, 2025 at 6:33 PM
In this version of the National Defense Authorization Act, the administration can't reduce troop numbers in Europe to below 76,000 without going via Congress and allies first - ie stabilising numbers around the pre-2022 surge mark. Of course we're still waiting for the force posture review...
Reposted by Armida van Rij
Die Studie von Jacob Ross zu den außenpolitischen Positionen der AfD lohnt sich.
Ein wichtiger und überfälliger Debattenbeitrag. Hoffentlich Ausgangspunkt für eine stärkere Auseinandersetzung auch in Think Tanks mit den außenpolitischen Debatten der AfD.
dgap.org/de/forschung...
Ein wichtiger und überfälliger Debattenbeitrag. Hoffentlich Ausgangspunkt für eine stärkere Auseinandersetzung auch in Think Tanks mit den außenpolitischen Debatten der AfD.
dgap.org/de/forschung...
December 15, 2025 at 3:08 PM
Die Studie von Jacob Ross zu den außenpolitischen Positionen der AfD lohnt sich.
Ein wichtiger und überfälliger Debattenbeitrag. Hoffentlich Ausgangspunkt für eine stärkere Auseinandersetzung auch in Think Tanks mit den außenpolitischen Debatten der AfD.
dgap.org/de/forschung...
Ein wichtiger und überfälliger Debattenbeitrag. Hoffentlich Ausgangspunkt für eine stärkere Auseinandersetzung auch in Think Tanks mit den außenpolitischen Debatten der AfD.
dgap.org/de/forschung...
Unfortunately, that is what the NSS enables.
Good piece by @constelz.bsky.social. I'd add that there is also (probably correct) apprehension among the CDU/CSU that MAGA and maybe the whole republicans will shift their main cooperation partners in Europe from centre-right to far-right parties.
The AfD’s love-in with Maga ft.trib.al/p03v4ZC | opinion
December 17, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Unfortunately, that is what the NSS enables.
Reposted by Armida van Rij
The United States and Europe have been profoundly bound together since the first transatlantic voyage brought Europeans to settle in the United States well over 250 years ago writes @armida.bsky.social for the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
The Unshared Futures of the United States and Europe
America and Europe have been bound together for more than 250 years. Whose ideology will define their future?
buff.ly
December 17, 2025 at 10:01 AM
The United States and Europe have been profoundly bound together since the first transatlantic voyage brought Europeans to settle in the United States well over 250 years ago writes @armida.bsky.social for the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
Pleased to contribute to @global-affairs.bsky.social series reflecting on the US at 250.
I wrote about the US & Europe's unshared futures, & ask whether their future will be based on democracy, human rights & rule of law - or on the nativism the US seeks to export globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...
I wrote about the US & Europe's unshared futures, & ask whether their future will be based on democracy, human rights & rule of law - or on the nativism the US seeks to export globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...
The Unshared Futures of the United States and Europe
America and Europe have been bound together for more than 250 years. Whose ideology will define their future?
globalaffairs.org
December 17, 2025 at 9:37 AM
Pleased to contribute to @global-affairs.bsky.social series reflecting on the US at 250.
I wrote about the US & Europe's unshared futures, & ask whether their future will be based on democracy, human rights & rule of law - or on the nativism the US seeks to export globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...
I wrote about the US & Europe's unshared futures, & ask whether their future will be based on democracy, human rights & rule of law - or on the nativism the US seeks to export globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...
Help - how to turn off Microsoft copilot?
It's impossible to do any writing in word without it popping up and offering to rewrite, refine, restructure and it's driving me crazy - pls just let me have my first bad draft that will never see the light of day 😤
It's impossible to do any writing in word without it popping up and offering to rewrite, refine, restructure and it's driving me crazy - pls just let me have my first bad draft that will never see the light of day 😤
December 16, 2025 at 4:12 PM
Help - how to turn off Microsoft copilot?
It's impossible to do any writing in word without it popping up and offering to rewrite, refine, restructure and it's driving me crazy - pls just let me have my first bad draft that will never see the light of day 😤
It's impossible to do any writing in word without it popping up and offering to rewrite, refine, restructure and it's driving me crazy - pls just let me have my first bad draft that will never see the light of day 😤
Reposted by Armida van Rij
En zo heb je meer vaste rode vlaggen. Bijvoorbeeld dat op een nieuwssite geen colofon of contactgegevens te vinden zijn. Of simpelweg dat-ie vol koppen staat waarvan je denkt: huh, zou het echt?
In NRC vandaag een stuk van mij over een netwerk van dit soort met AI volgeschreven sites.
(4/5)
In NRC vandaag een stuk van mij over een netwerk van dit soort met AI volgeschreven sites.
(4/5)
Hoe een AI-nieuwsnetwerk deskundigen woorden in de mond legt en BN’ers doodverklaart
Nepnieuws: Een netwerk van ‘nieuwssites’ en Facebookpagina’s pompt grote hoeveelheden door AI gegenereerd onzinnieuws rond. Bekende Nederlanders worden er doodverklaard en deskundigen doen uitspraken ...
www.nrc.nl
December 16, 2025 at 3:18 PM
En zo heb je meer vaste rode vlaggen. Bijvoorbeeld dat op een nieuwssite geen colofon of contactgegevens te vinden zijn. Of simpelweg dat-ie vol koppen staat waarvan je denkt: huh, zou het echt?
In NRC vandaag een stuk van mij over een netwerk van dit soort met AI volgeschreven sites.
(4/5)
In NRC vandaag een stuk van mij over een netwerk van dit soort met AI volgeschreven sites.
(4/5)
Reposted by Armida van Rij
Radical right parties in Europe have not moderated. Their positions and rhetoric have entered the mainstream. They have become normalized and legitimized. Unless we understand this, we have little chance of countering their success.
In many parts of Europe populist-right parties have moderated as they have grown, shedding unpopular policies and personnel. If anything, the AfD in Germany is growing more radical econ.st/3KSptMm
Illustration: Javier Palma
Illustration: Javier Palma
December 16, 2025 at 8:07 AM
Radical right parties in Europe have not moderated. Their positions and rhetoric have entered the mainstream. They have become normalized and legitimized. Unless we understand this, we have little chance of countering their success.
Good piece 👇
Europe imagines it can win at Washington’s “neo-royalist” game. Trump sees Europe as an extension of his domestic retribution campaign. Both are wrong, and both underestimate Europe’s ability to fight back (if it finds the will). My thoughts for @agendapublica.es:
agendapublica.es/noticia/2047...
agendapublica.es/noticia/2047...
Against Donald Trump, a Europe that abandons its illusions and wields its coercive power
For Jeremy Cliffe, editor at the ECFR think tank, the administration’s National Security Strategy confirms that both Europe and Washington misunderstand their relationship. In his analysis, he argues ...
agendapublica.es
December 15, 2025 at 10:12 PM
Good piece 👇
Reposted by Armida van Rij
Last year, I was interviewed for a @frontlinepbs.bsky.social documentary about Germany's far right, with a nod to Russia and the US. The documentary came out last month and makes for deeply uncomfortable viewing.
www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontli...
www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontli...
The Rise of Germany's New Right | FRONTLINE | PBS | Official Site | Documentary Series
Watch FRONTLINE's documentary examining how far-right leaders in Germany have risen to the brink of power.
www.pbs.org
December 11, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Last year, I was interviewed for a @frontlinepbs.bsky.social documentary about Germany's far right, with a nod to Russia and the US. The documentary came out last month and makes for deeply uncomfortable viewing.
www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontli...
www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontli...
Reposted by Armida van Rij
Germany seems more willing to call out Russia - today the government is accusing Russia of a large scale cyber attack on air traffic security and for disinformation campaign during the federal elections earlier this year:
Bundesregierung macht Russland für Cyberangriff verantwortlich
Die Bundesregierung wirft Russland einen großen Cyberangriff auf die Flugsicherung und eine Desinformationskampagne im Bundestagswahlkampf vor. Der russische Botschafter wurde ins Auswärtige Amt einbe...
www.tagesschau.de
December 12, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Germany seems more willing to call out Russia - today the government is accusing Russia of a large scale cyber attack on air traffic security and for disinformation campaign during the federal elections earlier this year:
Reposted by Armida van Rij
I’m so grateful to @jvogt.bsky.social and @foreignaffairs.com for the opportunity of this conversation on the new national security strategy:
The Fear and Weakness at the Heart of Trump’s Strategy
A Conversation With Kori Schake
www.foreignaffairs.com
December 11, 2025 at 5:57 PM
I’m so grateful to @jvogt.bsky.social and @foreignaffairs.com for the opportunity of this conversation on the new national security strategy:
Last year, I was interviewed for a @frontlinepbs.bsky.social documentary about Germany's far right, with a nod to Russia and the US. The documentary came out last month and makes for deeply uncomfortable viewing.
www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontli...
www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontli...
The Rise of Germany's New Right | FRONTLINE | PBS | Official Site | Documentary Series
Watch FRONTLINE's documentary examining how far-right leaders in Germany have risen to the brink of power.
www.pbs.org
December 11, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Last year, I was interviewed for a @frontlinepbs.bsky.social documentary about Germany's far right, with a nod to Russia and the US. The documentary came out last month and makes for deeply uncomfortable viewing.
www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontli...
www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontli...
Reposted by Armida van Rij
A propos the NSS wanting to peel away 🇵🇱, 🇭🇺, 🇮🇹 & 🇦🇹. Nawrocki came out with a slew of reform ideas recently that somewhat flew under the radar. Some just reinforce the unanimity rule but others call for scrapping Costa and Kallas's posts & limiting EU competencies notesfrompoland.com/2025/11/25/p...
December 11, 2025 at 10:17 AM
A propos the NSS wanting to peel away 🇵🇱, 🇭🇺, 🇮🇹 & 🇦🇹. Nawrocki came out with a slew of reform ideas recently that somewhat flew under the radar. Some just reinforce the unanimity rule but others call for scrapping Costa and Kallas's posts & limiting EU competencies notesfrompoland.com/2025/11/25/p...