Armida van Rij
@armida.bsky.social
Senior Research Fellow @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social. Ex-Chatham House & King's College London. European security, defence & politics.
🔗 https://www.cer.eu/personnel/armida-van-rij
🔗 https://www.cer.eu/personnel/armida-van-rij
Results for Dutch elections are trickling in. As expected, some surprises.
My thoughts:
Is this the end of populism in The Netherlands? No.
Freedom Party (PVV) has lost seats, but the far right vote has splintered. Big wins for JA21, a PVV-light party: 30% of PVV voters in 2023 now voted for JA21
My thoughts:
Is this the end of populism in The Netherlands? No.
Freedom Party (PVV) has lost seats, but the far right vote has splintered. Big wins for JA21, a PVV-light party: 30% of PVV voters in 2023 now voted for JA21
October 30, 2025 at 12:34 AM
Results for Dutch elections are trickling in. As expected, some surprises.
My thoughts:
Is this the end of populism in The Netherlands? No.
Freedom Party (PVV) has lost seats, but the far right vote has splintered. Big wins for JA21, a PVV-light party: 30% of PVV voters in 2023 now voted for JA21
My thoughts:
Is this the end of populism in The Netherlands? No.
Freedom Party (PVV) has lost seats, but the far right vote has splintered. Big wins for JA21, a PVV-light party: 30% of PVV voters in 2023 now voted for JA21
The PVV remains the largest party in the polls, and JA21 may surge from 1 seat to 10-14. It looks like coalition formation will particularly complex due to the splintering of the vote across lots of small parties and it remains to be seen how RoL fares in the final coalition agreement. 4/
October 20, 2025 at 12:26 PM
The PVV remains the largest party in the polls, and JA21 may surge from 1 seat to 10-14. It looks like coalition formation will particularly complex due to the splintering of the vote across lots of small parties and it remains to be seen how RoL fares in the final coalition agreement. 4/
This year, it found *only 3 parties* meet all the minimum rule of law standards in their manifestos: Greens/Labour, Volt & Animal Party. Worst offenders are the BBB (Farmers Party), PVV (Freedom Party), FvD (Forum for Democracy) and JA21 (a PVV spin off) - all populist/far right parties. 2/
October 20, 2025 at 12:26 PM
This year, it found *only 3 parties* meet all the minimum rule of law standards in their manifestos: Greens/Labour, Volt & Animal Party. Worst offenders are the BBB (Farmers Party), PVV (Freedom Party), FvD (Forum for Democracy) and JA21 (a PVV spin off) - all populist/far right parties. 2/
Sorry hoor, maar even een klaagmomentje over Nederlandse treinen. Precies op de dag dat duizenden mensen wereldwijd naar Den Haag komen voor de NAVO-top, is er een defecte trein tussen Leiden en Den Haag. Lijkt de Britse spoordiensten wel.
June 23, 2025 at 10:53 AM
Sorry hoor, maar even een klaagmomentje over Nederlandse treinen. Precies op de dag dat duizenden mensen wereldwijd naar Den Haag komen voor de NAVO-top, is er een defecte trein tussen Leiden en Den Haag. Lijkt de Britse spoordiensten wel.
According to Dutch public broadcaster NOS this language change is what made Spain agree to the 5%: from 'we agree to' to 'allies agree to'. Can someone explain why this is more palatable, does it create more distance between allies & the decision and is therefore more justifiable?
nos.nl/l/2572092
nos.nl/l/2572092
June 22, 2025 at 5:15 PM
According to Dutch public broadcaster NOS this language change is what made Spain agree to the 5%: from 'we agree to' to 'allies agree to'. Can someone explain why this is more palatable, does it create more distance between allies & the decision and is therefore more justifiable?
nos.nl/l/2572092
nos.nl/l/2572092
US Amb to NATO Whitaker makes the case clearly for why the new 1.5% target on infrastructure, cyber etc matters 'if we can't get a tank to the frontline because of a crumbling bridge, there's no defence'. As long as the 3.5% on 'core' defence is not fudged, this will be much needed investment.
June 11, 2025 at 4:19 PM
US Amb to NATO Whitaker makes the case clearly for why the new 1.5% target on infrastructure, cyber etc matters 'if we can't get a tank to the frontline because of a crumbling bridge, there's no defence'. As long as the 3.5% on 'core' defence is not fudged, this will be much needed investment.
@claudmajor.bsky.social introducing @gmfus.bsky.social new strand of work on transatlantic security - there could not be a better time or better person than Claudia to lead this work answering the question 'how to defend Europe?' and 'how to secure a functioning security order?' 👏🏼
June 11, 2025 at 4:00 PM
@claudmajor.bsky.social introducing @gmfus.bsky.social new strand of work on transatlantic security - there could not be a better time or better person than Claudia to lead this work answering the question 'how to defend Europe?' and 'how to secure a functioning security order?' 👏🏼
@henryjfoy.ft.com interviewing @kajakallas.bsky.social - HR/VP on US withdrawal from Europe 'if Europe is stronger our relationship with the US is stronger'. Equally, countries lining up to work with EU because 'we are the reliable partner'. Says opportunity for EU to build its geopolitical power.
June 11, 2025 at 10:43 AM
@henryjfoy.ft.com interviewing @kajakallas.bsky.social - HR/VP on US withdrawal from Europe 'if Europe is stronger our relationship with the US is stronger'. Equally, countries lining up to work with EU because 'we are the reliable partner'. Says opportunity for EU to build its geopolitical power.
President of @gmfus.bsky.social, Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, opens the 20th edition of the Brussels Forum: 'This is Europe's moment. It's Europe's moment to step up'.
June 11, 2025 at 10:18 AM
President of @gmfus.bsky.social, Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, opens the 20th edition of the Brussels Forum: 'This is Europe's moment. It's Europe's moment to step up'.
I've been reflecting on NATO Secretary General Rutte's speech at @chathamhouse.org House yesterday. Some thoughts:
June 10, 2025 at 5:06 PM
I've been reflecting on NATO Secretary General Rutte's speech at @chathamhouse.org House yesterday. Some thoughts:
NATO Secretary General outlines his plan to 'build a better NATO' @chathamhouse.org today.
Watch live www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/o...
Watch live www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/o...
June 9, 2025 at 2:50 PM
NATO Secretary General outlines his plan to 'build a better NATO' @chathamhouse.org today.
Watch live www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/o...
Watch live www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/o...
Very good @chathamhouse.org event on the international order (or lack thereof) with @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social @anandmenon.bsky.social @chietigj.bsky.social and Julian Ventura. Accompanying report here www.chathamhouse.org/2025/03/comp...
May 27, 2025 at 10:13 PM
Very good @chathamhouse.org event on the international order (or lack thereof) with @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social @anandmenon.bsky.social @chietigj.bsky.social and Julian Ventura. Accompanying report here www.chathamhouse.org/2025/03/comp...
As transatlantic relations continue to be in flux (putting it mildly), yesterday was a great moment to speak with @baibabraze.bsky.social @sophiabesch.bsky.social Hasit Thankey (NATO defence planning) & @deborahaynes.bsky.social about European defence as part of our Security & Defence conference.
March 7, 2025 at 9:33 AM
As transatlantic relations continue to be in flux (putting it mildly), yesterday was a great moment to speak with @baibabraze.bsky.social @sophiabesch.bsky.social Hasit Thankey (NATO defence planning) & @deborahaynes.bsky.social about European defence as part of our Security & Defence conference.
The bit on EU-US relations from Monday's EU leaders meeting outcome is striking: Costa reminding the *US* of the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of European states. We know why, but the need for the reminder remains shocking. Trump won't care, of course.
February 5, 2025 at 7:48 PM
The bit on EU-US relations from Monday's EU leaders meeting outcome is striking: Costa reminding the *US* of the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of European states. We know why, but the need for the reminder remains shocking. Trump won't care, of course.
Three interesting tidbits:
1. Wanting to learn from the Ukrainian defence industry and scaling quickly.
2. Needing return on public investment with 'increased know-how and good jobs here in Europe' - ie less US purchases?
3. What I'm reading as a dig at the Hungarian presidency 'we can rely on you'
1. Wanting to learn from the Ukrainian defence industry and scaling quickly.
2. Needing return on public investment with 'increased know-how and good jobs here in Europe' - ie less US purchases?
3. What I'm reading as a dig at the Hungarian presidency 'we can rely on you'
February 4, 2025 at 8:21 AM
Three interesting tidbits:
1. Wanting to learn from the Ukrainian defence industry and scaling quickly.
2. Needing return on public investment with 'increased know-how and good jobs here in Europe' - ie less US purchases?
3. What I'm reading as a dig at the Hungarian presidency 'we can rely on you'
1. Wanting to learn from the Ukrainian defence industry and scaling quickly.
2. Needing return on public investment with 'increased know-how and good jobs here in Europe' - ie less US purchases?
3. What I'm reading as a dig at the Hungarian presidency 'we can rely on you'
What a dream to be interviewed by Katya Adler and speak alongside @georginaewright.bsky.social on the Today Programme this morning!
We discussed today's informal EU leaders meeting in Brussels and Starmer's attendance, and expectations on EU defence.
We discussed today's informal EU leaders meeting in Brussels and Starmer's attendance, and expectations on EU defence.
February 3, 2025 at 9:36 AM
What a dream to be interviewed by Katya Adler and speak alongside @georginaewright.bsky.social on the Today Programme this morning!
We discussed today's informal EU leaders meeting in Brussels and Starmer's attendance, and expectations on EU defence.
We discussed today's informal EU leaders meeting in Brussels and Starmer's attendance, and expectations on EU defence.
It's easy to forget about Japan's support for Ukraine. When I speak to Japanese stakeholders, I am always struck by how close they feel to Russia's war on Ukraine. They understand the global nature of this war and the systemic threat perhaps better than most other countries. on.ft.com/4hjuFnw
February 2, 2025 at 10:14 AM
It's easy to forget about Japan's support for Ukraine. When I speak to Japanese stakeholders, I am always struck by how close they feel to Russia's war on Ukraine. They understand the global nature of this war and the systemic threat perhaps better than most other countries. on.ft.com/4hjuFnw
Something's up with Greece. It has the highest levels of dissatisfaction with the way democracy works in their country: a whopping 71% of respondents say they are unsatisfied & only 29% feel their voice counts in Greece. It is also the country with most dissatisfaction with democracy in the EU.
January 29, 2025 at 7:50 PM
Something's up with Greece. It has the highest levels of dissatisfaction with the way democracy works in their country: a whopping 71% of respondents say they are unsatisfied & only 29% feel their voice counts in Greece. It is also the country with most dissatisfaction with democracy in the EU.
Public opinion in Hungary looks different when it comes to Ukrainian accession to the EU (55% against) or providing military aid to Ukraine (59% against). Also, Greece? What's going on there?
January 29, 2025 at 7:50 PM
Public opinion in Hungary looks different when it comes to Ukrainian accession to the EU (55% against) or providing military aid to Ukraine (59% against). Also, Greece? What's going on there?
52% of respondents in Hungary support economic sanctions on Russia. Sure, it's a small majority and significantly lower than EU27 average of 71%, but it's still a majority and out of line with Hungary's government policy on this.
January 29, 2025 at 7:50 PM
52% of respondents in Hungary support economic sanctions on Russia. Sure, it's a small majority and significantly lower than EU27 average of 71%, but it's still a majority and out of line with Hungary's government policy on this.
Looking at the most recent Eurobarometer from autumn 2024. Some interesting bits about Hungary and views on Russia and Ukraine:
Majority (64%) of respondents in Hungary agree that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a threat to EU security, and 62% agree the invasion is a threat to Hungarian security.
Majority (64%) of respondents in Hungary agree that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a threat to EU security, and 62% agree the invasion is a threat to Hungarian security.
January 29, 2025 at 7:50 PM
Looking at the most recent Eurobarometer from autumn 2024. Some interesting bits about Hungary and views on Russia and Ukraine:
Majority (64%) of respondents in Hungary agree that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a threat to EU security, and 62% agree the invasion is a threat to Hungarian security.
Majority (64%) of respondents in Hungary agree that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a threat to EU security, and 62% agree the invasion is a threat to Hungarian security.
My first worktrip of the year and it's a good (and icy!) one - lovely to be back in Stockholm. Look forward to discussing the geopolitical flash points of 2025 with @tomstandage.bsky.social, Alasdair Ross and @jpaasikivi.bsky.social tomorrow during @economist.com's Världen 2025 conference.
January 14, 2025 at 7:00 PM
My first worktrip of the year and it's a good (and icy!) one - lovely to be back in Stockholm. Look forward to discussing the geopolitical flash points of 2025 with @tomstandage.bsky.social, Alasdair Ross and @jpaasikivi.bsky.social tomorrow during @economist.com's Världen 2025 conference.
Not to sound like a 2nd rate Instagram influencer, but filmed something very exciting today! More to come in July 2025 (patience is a virtue right?!) 👀
December 9, 2024 at 2:56 PM
Not to sound like a 2nd rate Instagram influencer, but filmed something very exciting today! More to come in July 2025 (patience is a virtue right?!) 👀
