Armida van Rij
@armida.bsky.social
Senior Research Fellow @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social. Ex-Chatham House & King's College London. European security, defence & politics.
🔗 https://www.cer.eu/personnel/armida-van-rij
🔗 https://www.cer.eu/personnel/armida-van-rij
Reposted by Armida van Rij
Finally, the Trump administration has turned the US into such an unreliable security partner that Russia is now treating it as a neutral arbiter between Russia and NATO (see above) so a Trump-era US guarantee modelled on Art. 5 would be entirely meaningless. www.axios.com/2025/11/21/u...
Trump peace plan for Ukraine includes NATO-style security guarantee
Trump would be committing the U.S. to defend Ukraine if Russia attacks again.
www.axios.com
November 21, 2025 at 10:10 AM
Finally, the Trump administration has turned the US into such an unreliable security partner that Russia is now treating it as a neutral arbiter between Russia and NATO (see above) so a Trump-era US guarantee modelled on Art. 5 would be entirely meaningless. www.axios.com/2025/11/21/u...
I was also surprised to see discussion of 'an orderly transition of responsibilities' from the US to other NATO allies within the alliance - while I & many others agree this is necessary, UK parliament openly discussing this is quite something.
Full report: committees.parliament.uk/committee/24...
Full report: committees.parliament.uk/committee/24...
Defence Committee: “questions raised about UK’s fundamental ability to defend itself” - Committees - UK Parliament
In a report published today, the Defence Committee sounds the alarm over the UK’s ability to defend its homeland and Overseas Territories, finding that we may be failing to meet our NATO Article...
committees.parliament.uk
November 20, 2025 at 4:09 PM
I was also surprised to see discussion of 'an orderly transition of responsibilities' from the US to other NATO allies within the alliance - while I & many others agree this is necessary, UK parliament openly discussing this is quite something.
Full report: committees.parliament.uk/committee/24...
Full report: committees.parliament.uk/committee/24...
Anyway writing a paper about this, out soon 🙃
November 20, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Anyway writing a paper about this, out soon 🙃
Which in Europe is 5/29 countries... Which brings me to my next point: justifying increased defence investment to your taxpayer when -in Europe- most of that will go to German, French, British, Italian & Swedish primes. Sure, start ups & SMEs in other countries support the supply chain, but still.
November 20, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Which in Europe is 5/29 countries... Which brings me to my next point: justifying increased defence investment to your taxpayer when -in Europe- most of that will go to German, French, British, Italian & Swedish primes. Sure, start ups & SMEs in other countries support the supply chain, but still.
Full report (in Dutch): www.cpb.nl/publicatie/m...
<a href="http://www.cpb.nl/publicatie/macro-economische-effecten-van-hogere-defensie-uitgaven">Macro-economische effecten van hogere defensie-uitgaven</a>
Hogere defensie-uitgaven zullen naar verwachting weinig effect hebben op de economische groei van Nederland. De zogenoemde multiplier – de toename van het bbp per extra bestede euro door de overheid –...
www.cpb.nl
November 20, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Full report (in Dutch): www.cpb.nl/publicatie/m...
In many NATO countries, it's disingenuous for governments to claim defence spending will lead to economic growth, except perhaps at the super local level (negligible at the national level). The argument for defence is that it keeps a nation safe. Govs need to get much better at making that case.
November 20, 2025 at 12:30 PM
In many NATO countries, it's disingenuous for governments to claim defence spending will lead to economic growth, except perhaps at the super local level (negligible at the national level). The argument for defence is that it keeps a nation safe. Govs need to get much better at making that case.
Reposted by Armida van Rij
It’s something we’ve witnessed for a while. In Germany, Weber likes to give the impression of a moderate conservative, also compared to others in his party, but in Brussels he then goes and cooperates with the far-right
November 13, 2025 at 9:57 AM
It’s something we’ve witnessed for a while. In Germany, Weber likes to give the impression of a moderate conservative, also compared to others in his party, but in Brussels he then goes and cooperates with the far-right