Armida van Rij
@armida.bsky.social
Senior Research Fellow @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social. Ex-Chatham House & King's College London. European security, defence & politics.
🔗 https://www.cer.eu/personnel/armida-van-rij
🔗 https://www.cer.eu/personnel/armida-van-rij
Pinned
Armida van Rij
@armida.bsky.social
· Jun 21
As the EU tries to double down on protecting liberal democracy, it is coming under direct fire from a group of radical libertarian tech billionaires and venture capitalists, writes Armida van Rij. @armida.bsky.social @chathamhouse.org
#LennartMeriConference
#LennartMeriConference
Europe, United States, West, Democracy, Authoritarianism - ICDS
A new transatlantic alliance is forming. The old partnership was based on advancing liberal democracy, upholding the rules-based international order, and a security contract between the US and Europe....
icds.ee
The European far right feel they have 'their' man in the White House. So what? This article about Trump, Silicon Valley & Europe's far right is my answer.
Despite the (temporary?) end of the Trump-Musk bromance, the ideological underpinnings of this transatlantic relationship hold, as do the risks.
Despite the (temporary?) end of the Trump-Musk bromance, the ideological underpinnings of this transatlantic relationship hold, as do the risks.
Reposted by Armida van Rij
After more than 10 years of “the Danish Model”, nativism is hegemonic in the country, the far right polls near level highs again, and the Social Democrats lost Copenhagen and poll at historic low.
European Social Democrats should look at the facts, not the myths!
Me in @theguardian.com
European Social Democrats should look at the facts, not the myths!
Me in @theguardian.com
The ‘Danish model’ is the darling of centre-left parties like Labour. The problem is, it doesn’t even work in Denmark | Cas Mudde
This week’s local elections are the latest reminder that when social democrats move rightwards, they’re making a mistake, says academic and author Cas Mudde
www.theguardian.com
November 22, 2025 at 1:59 PM
After more than 10 years of “the Danish Model”, nativism is hegemonic in the country, the far right polls near level highs again, and the Social Democrats lost Copenhagen and poll at historic low.
European Social Democrats should look at the facts, not the myths!
Me in @theguardian.com
European Social Democrats should look at the facts, not the myths!
Me in @theguardian.com
If the EU hadn't dithered for so long over these frozen assets they wouldn't now be a bargaining chip for Trump & Putin. This is the cost of being slow and indecisive, and the Commission not having a plan ready after last month's Council.
Two European officials said that the frozen assets section of the Ukraine peace agreement was one of the most alarming since it implies authority over assets that are mostly immobilised in European institutions.
One said it was almost as if the text had been drawn up as “a deliberate provocation”.
One said it was almost as if the text had been drawn up as “a deliberate provocation”.
Trump’s grab for Russian frozen assets puts EU Ukraine loan in doubt on.ft.com/3LXpzSY
November 21, 2025 at 5:07 PM
If the EU hadn't dithered for so long over these frozen assets they wouldn't now be a bargaining chip for Trump & Putin. This is the cost of being slow and indecisive, and the Commission not having a plan ready after last month's Council.
Meanwhile, in Britain, in what will come as a surprise to no-one...
Ex-leader of Reform UK in Wales Nathan Gill sentenced to 10-and-a-half years for taking pro-Russia bribes
Ex-leader of Reform UK in Wales sentenced to 10-and-a-half years for taking pro-Russian bribes
The judge tells Nathan Gill his actions were a
www.bbc.co.uk
November 21, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Meanwhile, in Britain, in what will come as a surprise to no-one...
This has been Trump's intention from the start. All he wants is to pursue US (and personal) economic interests in Russia, and Ukraine is currently an obstacle to being able to do this. So the 'Ukraine obstacle' - in his mind - has to be removed and/or neutralised.
The whole draft agreement is full of economic sweeteners for the US and focused on the future development of US-Russia economic ties. This is what Trump keeps coming back to when he talks about the end of the war, so is presumably aimed at keeping him happy.
November 21, 2025 at 11:19 AM
This has been Trump's intention from the start. All he wants is to pursue US (and personal) economic interests in Russia, and Ukraine is currently an obstacle to being able to do this. So the 'Ukraine obstacle' - in his mind - has to be removed and/or neutralised.
Reposted by Armida van Rij
Finally, the Trump administration has turned the US into such an unreliable security partner that Russia is now treating it as a neutral arbiter between Russia and NATO (see above) so a Trump-era US guarantee modelled on Art. 5 would be entirely meaningless. www.axios.com/2025/11/21/u...
Trump peace plan for Ukraine includes NATO-style security guarantee
Trump would be committing the U.S. to defend Ukraine if Russia attacks again.
www.axios.com
November 21, 2025 at 10:10 AM
Finally, the Trump administration has turned the US into such an unreliable security partner that Russia is now treating it as a neutral arbiter between Russia and NATO (see above) so a Trump-era US guarantee modelled on Art. 5 would be entirely meaningless. www.axios.com/2025/11/21/u...
Reposted by Armida van Rij
Some notable things in what's being called the "Trump peace plan" but which could not have been more clearly written in Moscow if it came with a 2 for 1 deal on tickets to the Bolshoi Ballet. 🧵
November 21, 2025 at 10:06 AM
Some notable things in what's being called the "Trump peace plan" but which could not have been more clearly written in Moscow if it came with a 2 for 1 deal on tickets to the Bolshoi Ballet. 🧵
Reposted by Armida van Rij
📣 New op-ed in Süddeutsche Zeitung: What the data say about the “Brandmauer”
I summarize key findings from a study with @anninahermes.bsky.social across 57 democracies
➡️ Far-right parties don’t get weaker in government, they get stronger (~6 points by the next election)
tinyurl.com/4j6jaud2
I summarize key findings from a study with @anninahermes.bsky.social across 57 democracies
➡️ Far-right parties don’t get weaker in government, they get stronger (~6 points by the next election)
tinyurl.com/4j6jaud2
Demokratie: Wenn die Rechte mitregiert, wird sie nicht geschwächt – im Gegenteil
Eine Untersuchung von 57 Ländern zeigt: Wenn die Rechte in Verantwortung kommt, gewinnt sie dazu. Daraus lässt sich für Deutschland lernen.
www.sueddeutsche.de
November 18, 2025 at 8:51 PM
📣 New op-ed in Süddeutsche Zeitung: What the data say about the “Brandmauer”
I summarize key findings from a study with @anninahermes.bsky.social across 57 democracies
➡️ Far-right parties don’t get weaker in government, they get stronger (~6 points by the next election)
tinyurl.com/4j6jaud2
I summarize key findings from a study with @anninahermes.bsky.social across 57 democracies
➡️ Far-right parties don’t get weaker in government, they get stronger (~6 points by the next election)
tinyurl.com/4j6jaud2
Reposted by Armida van Rij
This week, the EU published its military mobility package with the aim of creating a “Military Schengen” by 2027. I know, I know. It seems like we are always working on this without much progress.
What does the package say or do?
A 🧵
What does the package say or do?
A 🧵
November 20, 2025 at 5:22 PM
This week, the EU published its military mobility package with the aim of creating a “Military Schengen” by 2027. I know, I know. It seems like we are always working on this without much progress.
What does the package say or do?
A 🧵
What does the package say or do?
A 🧵
I contributed to this pessimistic assessment & gave evidence (with @edrusi.bsky.social) to the Defence Select Committee's inquiry on the UK's contribution to European security so shouldn't be surprised, but the Committee's report is a dire read.
Its main conclusion is UK is not ready defend itself.
Its main conclusion is UK is not ready defend itself.
November 20, 2025 at 4:08 PM
I contributed to this pessimistic assessment & gave evidence (with @edrusi.bsky.social) to the Defence Select Committee's inquiry on the UK's contribution to European security so shouldn't be surprised, but the Committee's report is a dire read.
Its main conclusion is UK is not ready defend itself.
Its main conclusion is UK is not ready defend itself.
Honest assessment from the 🇳🇱 Bureau for Economic Analysis (CPB) on the impact of defence spending on the Dutch economy.
Key finding: increased defence spending will have a negligible impact on economic growth. But emphasises economic arguments shouldn't determine choices made re defence investment.
Key finding: increased defence spending will have a negligible impact on economic growth. But emphasises economic arguments shouldn't determine choices made re defence investment.
November 20, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Honest assessment from the 🇳🇱 Bureau for Economic Analysis (CPB) on the impact of defence spending on the Dutch economy.
Key finding: increased defence spending will have a negligible impact on economic growth. But emphasises economic arguments shouldn't determine choices made re defence investment.
Key finding: increased defence spending will have a negligible impact on economic growth. But emphasises economic arguments shouldn't determine choices made re defence investment.
Reposted by Armida van Rij
New: I can confirm hasty US-Russia proposal being pushed to Ukrainians via Dmitriev-Witkoff to Umerov. It would amount to Ukraine’s capitulation, with people familiar saying it’s Kremlin’s maximalist demands.
-Ukraine army cut 1/2
-Give up certain weapons
-Give up Donbas
-Zelensky displeased
More tk
-Ukraine army cut 1/2
-Give up certain weapons
-Give up Donbas
-Zelensky displeased
More tk
November 19, 2025 at 4:45 PM
New: I can confirm hasty US-Russia proposal being pushed to Ukrainians via Dmitriev-Witkoff to Umerov. It would amount to Ukraine’s capitulation, with people familiar saying it’s Kremlin’s maximalist demands.
-Ukraine army cut 1/2
-Give up certain weapons
-Give up Donbas
-Zelensky displeased
More tk
-Ukraine army cut 1/2
-Give up certain weapons
-Give up Donbas
-Zelensky displeased
More tk
A pleasure to chair this frank and robust discussion with @sandrogozi.bsky.social, EU-UK PPA chair & MEP for Renew Europe, on EU-UK security and foreign policy cooperation.
As UK & European Commission officials negotiate over UK access to SAFE, this discussion could not have come at a better time.
As UK & European Commission officials negotiate over UK access to SAFE, this discussion could not have come at a better time.
Thank you to @sandrogozi.bsky.social for speaking at our @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social / EP Liaison Office in the UK expert roundtable on 'EU-UK security and foreign policy co-operation' in London yesterday.
November 19, 2025 at 6:34 PM
A pleasure to chair this frank and robust discussion with @sandrogozi.bsky.social, EU-UK PPA chair & MEP for Renew Europe, on EU-UK security and foreign policy cooperation.
As UK & European Commission officials negotiate over UK access to SAFE, this discussion could not have come at a better time.
As UK & European Commission officials negotiate over UK access to SAFE, this discussion could not have come at a better time.
Reposted by Armida van Rij
For the crowd still raving about the Danish Social Democrats, convinced that all social democratic parties should adopt their course.
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
November 18, 2025 at 11:06 AM
For the crowd still raving about the Danish Social Democrats, convinced that all social democratic parties should adopt their course.
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
After Sweden, NL will now also distributing a booklet to all households on what to do in case of a national disaster. Special focus on households being self-sufficient for 72h, after the Finnish example and subsequent EU Preparedness Strategy.
nos.nl/l/2590879
nos.nl/l/2590879
Alle Nederlanders krijgen noodboekje thuis: bereid je voor op een ramp
Overstromingen, oorlog of een maatschappij-ontwrichtende cyberaanval: het is niet uit te sluiten dat in Nederland een ramp gebeurt. De overheid start een campagne om mensen daarvan bewust te maken.
nos.nl
November 18, 2025 at 9:58 AM
After Sweden, NL will now also distributing a booklet to all households on what to do in case of a national disaster. Special focus on households being self-sufficient for 72h, after the Finnish example and subsequent EU Preparedness Strategy.
nos.nl/l/2590879
nos.nl/l/2590879
Reposted by Armida van Rij
I had parts of this piece written before and then yesterday's vote in the EP blew up the analysis. Which goes to show how politics in the EP is changing. For more, read below 👇
The far right is stronger than ever in the European Parliament. And climate policy has become a testing ground for its influence.
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @zecsaky.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/7rqeFaO
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @zecsaky.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/7rqeFaO
November 14, 2025 at 1:03 PM
I had parts of this piece written before and then yesterday's vote in the EP blew up the analysis. Which goes to show how politics in the EP is changing. For more, read below 👇
Reposted by Armida van Rij
It’s something we’ve witnessed for a while. In Germany, Weber likes to give the impression of a moderate conservative, also compared to others in his party, but in Brussels he then goes and cooperates with the far-right
November 13, 2025 at 9:57 AM
It’s something we’ve witnessed for a while. In Germany, Weber likes to give the impression of a moderate conservative, also compared to others in his party, but in Brussels he then goes and cooperates with the far-right
Great to see the report from the HoL European Affairs Committee inquiry into the UK-EU reset has been published. I - and lots of my @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social colleagues as I've just realised - give oral evidence to the inquiry @aslak.bsky.social @antonspisak.bsky.social.
It’s out! Here’s @LordsEUCom Report ‘Unfinished Business: resetting the UK- EU relationship’. The Gov’t have made a strong start, esp on security and defence, but there’s still much to do in turning aspirations and goodwill into workable agreements 1/8
publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld5901/ld...
publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld5901/ld...
publications.parliament.uk
November 12, 2025 at 3:50 PM
Great to see the report from the HoL European Affairs Committee inquiry into the UK-EU reset has been published. I - and lots of my @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social colleagues as I've just realised - give oral evidence to the inquiry @aslak.bsky.social @antonspisak.bsky.social.
Reposted by Armida van Rij
Bedrijven bereiden zich te weinig voor op dreigingen zoals spionage en exportverboden, ziet Maaike Okano-Heijmans.
''Al je eieren in één mandje leggen is nooit een verstandig idee, en zeker niet in deze geopolitieke situatie.''
nos.nl/artikel/2589...
''Al je eieren in één mandje leggen is nooit een verstandig idee, en zeker niet in deze geopolitieke situatie.''
nos.nl/artikel/2589...
Bedrijven bereiden zich te weinig voor op dreigingen: 'Bescherm je kroonjuwelen'
Instituut Clingendael vroeg bedrijven wat voor maatregelen ze nemen tegen bijvoorbeeld spionage en handelsoorlogen.
nos.nl
November 11, 2025 at 12:13 PM
Bedrijven bereiden zich te weinig voor op dreigingen zoals spionage en exportverboden, ziet Maaike Okano-Heijmans.
''Al je eieren in één mandje leggen is nooit een verstandig idee, en zeker niet in deze geopolitieke situatie.''
nos.nl/artikel/2589...
''Al je eieren in één mandje leggen is nooit een verstandig idee, en zeker niet in deze geopolitieke situatie.''
nos.nl/artikel/2589...
Reposted by Armida van Rij
Quick thread on the BBC and the political and societal significance of recent developments:
One of the main reasons the UK has historically been so much less polarised than the US, is that Britain has a shared source of information, consumed and trusted by most people regardless of their politics.
One of the main reasons the UK has historically been so much less polarised than the US, is that Britain has a shared source of information, consumed and trusted by most people regardless of their politics.
November 10, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Quick thread on the BBC and the political and societal significance of recent developments:
One of the main reasons the UK has historically been so much less polarised than the US, is that Britain has a shared source of information, consumed and trusted by most people regardless of their politics.
One of the main reasons the UK has historically been so much less polarised than the US, is that Britain has a shared source of information, consumed and trusted by most people regardless of their politics.
Reposted by Armida van Rij
The fact that the BBC has made serious culpable errors does not negate the point that there is a real and concerted right-wing media campaign to destroy it. Both points can be true at the same time and the campaign would not end even if the errors did.
November 10, 2025 at 1:08 PM
The fact that the BBC has made serious culpable errors does not negate the point that there is a real and concerted right-wing media campaign to destroy it. Both points can be true at the same time and the campaign would not end even if the errors did.
Reposted by Armida van Rij
Policy-wise, the lasting power of the far-right is here to stay.
In the two years since the 2023 election & during the campaign period, far-right ideas & policies have been adopted by all centrist parties.
CER insight by @armida.bsky.social & @sandertordoir.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/te5HYI3
In the two years since the 2023 election & during the campaign period, far-right ideas & policies have been adopted by all centrist parties.
CER insight by @armida.bsky.social & @sandertordoir.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/te5HYI3
November 8, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Policy-wise, the lasting power of the far-right is here to stay.
In the two years since the 2023 election & during the campaign period, far-right ideas & policies have been adopted by all centrist parties.
CER insight by @armida.bsky.social & @sandertordoir.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/te5HYI3
In the two years since the 2023 election & during the campaign period, far-right ideas & policies have been adopted by all centrist parties.
CER insight by @armida.bsky.social & @sandertordoir.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/te5HYI3
Reposted by Armida van Rij
“Orban is isolated on Ukraine,” says @armida.bsky.social of the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social think-tank.For the first time in 15 years, he is the underdog in an election campaign.
A Czech shift to the right is worrying news for Ukraine
But the new prime minister will probably not join Viktor Orban’s efforts to block aid
buff.ly
November 7, 2025 at 9:00 AM
“Orban is isolated on Ukraine,” says @armida.bsky.social of the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social think-tank.For the first time in 15 years, he is the underdog in an election campaign.
Short @economist.com piece on what Orbán is trying to do vis-a-vis Ukraine through the Visegrad countries, with comments from me.
Orbán's trip to DC needs to be seen through the lens of the 2026 Hungarian elections, and him trying to regain support domestically.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
Orbán's trip to DC needs to be seen through the lens of the 2026 Hungarian elections, and him trying to regain support domestically.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
A Czech shift to the right is worrying news for Ukraine
But the new prime minister will probably not join Viktor Orban’s efforts to block aid
www.economist.com
November 7, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Short @economist.com piece on what Orbán is trying to do vis-a-vis Ukraine through the Visegrad countries, with comments from me.
Orbán's trip to DC needs to be seen through the lens of the 2026 Hungarian elections, and him trying to regain support domestically.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
Orbán's trip to DC needs to be seen through the lens of the 2026 Hungarian elections, and him trying to regain support domestically.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
I have issues with this headline and subtitle. Progressive ≠ anti-war. Support for NATO ≠ pro-war.
Conflating these issues is unhelpful given the state of the world. I worry this kind of binary thinking will only get worse as the public discourse about security takes off.
Conflating these issues is unhelpful given the state of the world. I worry this kind of binary thinking will only get worse as the public discourse about security takes off.
Anti-war candidate Catherine Connolly’s victory is the country’s latest rebuke to the global right-wing populist wave.
Ireland’s Next President Will Assume the Progressive Mantle
Anti-war candidate Catherine Connolly’s victory is the country’s latest rebuke to the global right-wing populist wave.
foreignpolicy.com
November 6, 2025 at 12:49 PM
I have issues with this headline and subtitle. Progressive ≠ anti-war. Support for NATO ≠ pro-war.
Conflating these issues is unhelpful given the state of the world. I worry this kind of binary thinking will only get worse as the public discourse about security takes off.
Conflating these issues is unhelpful given the state of the world. I worry this kind of binary thinking will only get worse as the public discourse about security takes off.
My first CER insight is out! It's an all Dutch affair where @sandertordoir.bsky.social and I team up to assess the outcome of the Dutch elections. Sander looks at the implications for Europe's strategic autonomy, and I write about the staying power of the far right. 👇
www.cer.eu/insights/wha...
www.cer.eu/insights/wha...
What the Dutch elections mean for the Netherlands and for Europe
Armida van Rij and Sander Tordoir decipher what the election results mean for The Netherlands and Europe more broadly.
www.cer.eu
November 6, 2025 at 11:50 AM
My first CER insight is out! It's an all Dutch affair where @sandertordoir.bsky.social and I team up to assess the outcome of the Dutch elections. Sander looks at the implications for Europe's strategic autonomy, and I write about the staying power of the far right. 👇
www.cer.eu/insights/wha...
www.cer.eu/insights/wha...