Zselyke Csaky
@zecsaky.bsky.social
Senior research fellow CER @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social. Mostly EU stuff, sprinkled with some democracy & Central Europe. Past lives Freedom House, EUI, Bloomberg.
Reposted by Zselyke Csaky
If you aren't fed up to the back teeth with 2025, you can listen to what @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social researchers thought were its key themes. And if you just want to see the back of this year, you can hear our thoughts on what's coming up next.
🎙️New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social podcast: In our final episode of 2025, six of our researchers reflect on the EU’s past year and what to look out for in 2026.🎙️
Listen here: buff.ly/rIGyp61
Listen here: buff.ly/rIGyp61
December 19, 2025 at 12:28 PM
If you aren't fed up to the back teeth with 2025, you can listen to what @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social researchers thought were its key themes. And if you just want to see the back of this year, you can hear our thoughts on what's coming up next.
Using enhanced cooperation is very significant from an institutional perspective. Now for the future, the question is if this is the rump Visegrad we can expect to see more? A lot will depend on the outcome of the Hungarian election.
EU governments agree on €90bn joint loan to Ukraine for 2026-27, structured through unprecedented use of enhanced cooperation.
24 member states in, 3 out (HU, CZ, SK). But the constitutional implications are significant. 🧵
24 member states in, 3 out (HU, CZ, SK). But the constitutional implications are significant. 🧵
December 19, 2025 at 9:46 AM
Using enhanced cooperation is very significant from an institutional perspective. Now for the future, the question is if this is the rump Visegrad we can expect to see more? A lot will depend on the outcome of the Hungarian election.
Reposted by Zselyke Csaky
On balance, a good outcome.
- Ukraine financed for next two years so not ‘forced’ to accept a bad deal.
- we avoid trap of ‘bridging solutions’ and combining purely nations contributions.
- EU foreign policy gets stronger by normalising use of QMV and enhanced cooperation
- Ukraine financed for next two years so not ‘forced’ to accept a bad deal.
- we avoid trap of ‘bridging solutions’ and combining purely nations contributions.
- EU foreign policy gets stronger by normalising use of QMV and enhanced cooperation
EU agrees €90bn loan to Ukraine after frozen Russian asset plan fails
Money to be borrowed against bloc’s budget after leaders fail to agree on proposal using Moscow’s funds
giftarticle.ft.com
December 19, 2025 at 9:29 AM
On balance, a good outcome.
- Ukraine financed for next two years so not ‘forced’ to accept a bad deal.
- we avoid trap of ‘bridging solutions’ and combining purely nations contributions.
- EU foreign policy gets stronger by normalising use of QMV and enhanced cooperation
- Ukraine financed for next two years so not ‘forced’ to accept a bad deal.
- we avoid trap of ‘bridging solutions’ and combining purely nations contributions.
- EU foreign policy gets stronger by normalising use of QMV and enhanced cooperation
Reposted by Zselyke Csaky
I've told this story before, but a year ago I was at a closed-door meeting with various governments reps at a meaningful level, and when social media regulation came up, one of the non-US government reps basically said: "but we're powerless"
Icymi, because I did: MI6 chief warns that tech giants are closer to running the world than governments.
MI6 chief: Tech giants are closer to running the world than politicians
In first public speech on threats to UK, top spy warns of dangerous power shift amid surge in disinformation
inews.co.uk
December 18, 2025 at 1:43 PM
I've told this story before, but a year ago I was at a closed-door meeting with various governments reps at a meaningful level, and when social media regulation came up, one of the non-US government reps basically said: "but we're powerless"
Just what you need as the discussions unfold today.👇
D-Day for Europe to shore up Ukraine funding.
As EU leaders huddle in Brussels, Stephen Paduano and I analyse the reparations loan in a new piece.
This is not only a "There Is No Alternative" (TINA) moment—but the financial and legal risks are also manageable.
1/
www.cer.eu/insights/ukr...
As EU leaders huddle in Brussels, Stephen Paduano and I analyse the reparations loan in a new piece.
This is not only a "There Is No Alternative" (TINA) moment—but the financial and legal risks are also manageable.
1/
www.cer.eu/insights/ukr...
The Ukraine Reparations Loan: How to fix Europe's financial plumbing
As US support for Ukraine vanishes, Europe must overcome Belgian opposition and improvise fiscally to provide Kyiv with €210 billion.
www.cer.eu
December 18, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Just what you need as the discussions unfold today.👇
Reposted by Zselyke Csaky
If this fails, there is no immediate plan B, write Stephen Paduano & @sandertordoir.bsky.social in a new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight.
Read here: buff.ly/GM6RkHv
Read here: buff.ly/GM6RkHv
December 18, 2025 at 12:30 PM
If this fails, there is no immediate plan B, write Stephen Paduano & @sandertordoir.bsky.social in a new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight.
Read here: buff.ly/GM6RkHv
Read here: buff.ly/GM6RkHv
Reposted by Zselyke Csaky
The European Council today is make-or-break for Ukraine’s financing. The bloc is racing to unlock a €210bn Ukraine reparations loan using frozen Russian assets.
December 18, 2025 at 12:30 PM
The European Council today is make-or-break for Ukraine’s financing. The bloc is racing to unlock a €210bn Ukraine reparations loan using frozen Russian assets.
Reposted by Zselyke Csaky
🇪🇺⚖️🇵🇱 Revenge is a dish best served cold (and after five years). Moments ago, CJEU, in the case Commission v. Poland, found that the Polish Constitutional Tribunal has not only violated EU law with its anti-EU rulings, but also was (is) not an independent court established properly by law. 1/
December 18, 2025 at 9:04 AM
🇪🇺⚖️🇵🇱 Revenge is a dish best served cold (and after five years). Moments ago, CJEU, in the case Commission v. Poland, found that the Polish Constitutional Tribunal has not only violated EU law with its anti-EU rulings, but also was (is) not an independent court established properly by law. 1/
Reposted by Zselyke Csaky
"Liberating its historic lands": as the Trump administration pretends peace is around the corner, Putin reminds us that for him, this war is about re-establishing the Russian empire. Ukrainians showed in 1991, when the whole country voted for independence, that they don't see themselves as Russian.
Putin plans on continuing the war.Russia doesn't want peace:
The goals of the special military operation will be completed.We would prefer to do it.But if the opposing country&their foreign patrons refuse to have a constructive discussion,Russia will achieve liberating its historic lands militarily
The goals of the special military operation will be completed.We would prefer to do it.But if the opposing country&their foreign patrons refuse to have a constructive discussion,Russia will achieve liberating its historic lands militarily
December 17, 2025 at 12:48 PM
"Liberating its historic lands": as the Trump administration pretends peace is around the corner, Putin reminds us that for him, this war is about re-establishing the Russian empire. Ukrainians showed in 1991, when the whole country voted for independence, that they don't see themselves as Russian.
Reposted by Zselyke Csaky
The European Parliament just voted to phase out Russian gas: 500 in favor, 120 against, 32 abstentions.
The EU will end all pipeline gas and LNG imports from #Russia by Sep 30, 2027.
#Hungary and #Slovakia will likely challenge the decision in court (but their attempts will likely fail).
The EU will end all pipeline gas and LNG imports from #Russia by Sep 30, 2027.
#Hungary and #Slovakia will likely challenge the decision in court (but their attempts will likely fail).
💥Big news💥The EU will end imports of Russian LNG by Dec'26 & pipeline gas by Sep'27. The deal still needs 🇪🇺Parliament & Council approval. But it'll be majority voting: Hungary/Slovakia can't block it.
🇪🇺 also plans to phase out Russian oil. A proposal is expected in early 2026. tinyurl.com/2fs76h2k
🇪🇺 also plans to phase out Russian oil. A proposal is expected in early 2026. tinyurl.com/2fs76h2k
EU agrees to permanently stop Russian gas imports and phase out Russian oil
The European Union will effectively and permanently stop the import of Russian gas and move towards the phaseout of Russian oil under the provisional political agreement reached by the European Parlia...
tinyurl.com
December 17, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Reposted by Zselyke Csaky
And so with a wimper, the EU scraps the ban on internal-combustion engines from 2035. The new rules are an incomprehensible fudge that only lobbyists will understand.
Saying "the climate matters, here is something tangible we are doing about it" was a big deal. Whatever this is, it's a little sad.
Saying "the climate matters, here is something tangible we are doing about it" was a big deal. Whatever this is, it's a little sad.
December 16, 2025 at 3:59 PM
And so with a wimper, the EU scraps the ban on internal-combustion engines from 2035. The new rules are an incomprehensible fudge that only lobbyists will understand.
Saying "the climate matters, here is something tangible we are doing about it" was a big deal. Whatever this is, it's a little sad.
Saying "the climate matters, here is something tangible we are doing about it" was a big deal. Whatever this is, it's a little sad.
Reposted by Zselyke Csaky
"Suggesting that a state might withdraw from the ECHR or ignore CJEU rulings – even if done insincerely for short-term political gains – only normalises the agenda of the far right and reinforces the impression that euroscepticism and anti-immigrant positions were legitimate from the outset" 💯
As Donald Tusk’s rhetoric increasingly echoes Orbán, WOJCIECH ZOMERSKI sounds a warning for democratic restoration:
No force is immune to populism’s temptations, including those who claim to rescue us from it.
verfassungsblog.de/populism-pol...
No force is immune to populism’s temptations, including those who claim to rescue us from it.
verfassungsblog.de/populism-pol...
December 16, 2025 at 3:39 PM
"Suggesting that a state might withdraw from the ECHR or ignore CJEU rulings – even if done insincerely for short-term political gains – only normalises the agenda of the far right and reinforces the impression that euroscepticism and anti-immigrant positions were legitimate from the outset" 💯
Reposted by Zselyke Csaky
Reports that Jared Kushner dropped Trump Tower in Belgrade are good news. It shows that resistance works, despite an authoritarian regime working with US administration and money from the UAE. It will further isolate Vučić and reduce the interest of Trump in Serbia.
www.wsj.com/world/trump-...
www.wsj.com/world/trump-...
After Backlash, Jared Kushner Drops Plan to Build a Trump Hotel in Serbia
For more than two years, the U.S. president’s son-in-law had sought to build a complex of towers in a central Belgrade site once bombed by NATO.
www.wsj.com
December 15, 2025 at 10:03 PM
Reports that Jared Kushner dropped Trump Tower in Belgrade are good news. It shows that resistance works, despite an authoritarian regime working with US administration and money from the UAE. It will further isolate Vučić and reduce the interest of Trump in Serbia.
www.wsj.com/world/trump-...
www.wsj.com/world/trump-...
Reposted by Zselyke Csaky
Poland has revoked the passport of former justice minister Zbigniew Ziobro, who remains outside the country as prosecutors seek to bring 26 criminal charges against him.
Next week, a Polish court will decide whether to issue an arrest warrant for Ziobro.
Next week, a Polish court will decide whether to issue an arrest warrant for Ziobro.
Poland revokes passport of ex-justice minister Ziobro who fled abroad amid criminal charges
notesfrompoland.com
December 16, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Poland has revoked the passport of former justice minister Zbigniew Ziobro, who remains outside the country as prosecutors seek to bring 26 criminal charges against him.
Next week, a Polish court will decide whether to issue an arrest warrant for Ziobro.
Next week, a Polish court will decide whether to issue an arrest warrant for Ziobro.
Reposted by Zselyke Csaky
That's Hungary dealt with. Now on to the final boss: Belgium.
🚨 Big news: EU countries have approved the long-term immobilisation of the Russian Central Bank under Article 122, which requires only a qualified majority.
This is a key element of the reparations loan.
This is a key element of the reparations loan.
December 11, 2025 at 3:24 PM
That's Hungary dealt with. Now on to the final boss: Belgium.
Reposted by Zselyke Csaky
Other famous recent castling moves nearby: Vucic in Serbia, Erdogan in Turkey. In each of those cases, though, they did it *before* their parliamentary majorities were threatened, so they could either informally (Serbia) or formally (Turkey) degrade the parliamentary order from a position of control
Important reporting from @bloomberg.com's Zoltan Simon on alleged scenario-planning by Orban and ideas to avoid giving up power. Castling a la Putin would be a straight-up authoritarian move but one that's also fairly risky www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
December 11, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Other famous recent castling moves nearby: Vucic in Serbia, Erdogan in Turkey. In each of those cases, though, they did it *before* their parliamentary majorities were threatened, so they could either informally (Serbia) or formally (Turkey) degrade the parliamentary order from a position of control
Important reporting from @bloomberg.com's Zoltan Simon on alleged scenario-planning by Orban and ideas to avoid giving up power. Castling a la Putin would be a straight-up authoritarian move but one that's also fairly risky www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
December 11, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Important reporting from @bloomberg.com's Zoltan Simon on alleged scenario-planning by Orban and ideas to avoid giving up power. Castling a la Putin would be a straight-up authoritarian move but one that's also fairly risky www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
A propos the NSS wanting to peel away 🇵🇱, 🇭🇺, 🇮🇹 & 🇦🇹. Nawrocki came out with a slew of reform ideas recently that somewhat flew under the radar. Some just reinforce the unanimity rule but others call for scrapping Costa and Kallas's posts & limiting EU competencies notesfrompoland.com/2025/11/25/p...
December 11, 2025 at 10:17 AM
A propos the NSS wanting to peel away 🇵🇱, 🇭🇺, 🇮🇹 & 🇦🇹. Nawrocki came out with a slew of reform ideas recently that somewhat flew under the radar. Some just reinforce the unanimity rule but others call for scrapping Costa and Kallas's posts & limiting EU competencies notesfrompoland.com/2025/11/25/p...
Reposted by Zselyke Csaky
The Trump administration's industrial policy U-turn and aggressive trade policy are reshaping global clean tech markets. For EU manufacturers, it's a tale of two shocks: falling US demand + surging Chinese competition. Our new policy brief discusses what's happening and what Europe needs to do 🧵
Between a rock and a hard place: Europe's clean tech industry is caught between Trump’s policies and Chinese pressure. #cleantech
New policy brief by @lucas-res-car.bsky.social, @elisabettaco.bsky.social, @etiennehoera.d-64.social & @ph-jaeg.bsky.social.
Read here: buff.ly/mzBkqRa
New policy brief by @lucas-res-car.bsky.social, @elisabettaco.bsky.social, @etiennehoera.d-64.social & @ph-jaeg.bsky.social.
Read here: buff.ly/mzBkqRa
December 9, 2025 at 12:37 PM
The Trump administration's industrial policy U-turn and aggressive trade policy are reshaping global clean tech markets. For EU manufacturers, it's a tale of two shocks: falling US demand + surging Chinese competition. Our new policy brief discusses what's happening and what Europe needs to do 🧵
Reposted by Zselyke Csaky
Finally, not surprising to see the AfD amongst the most pro-Russia groups, much more so than the Rassemblement National.
What surprised me was that Fidesz, despite Orbáns outspoken role, was more cautious to vote pro-Russia (at least until 2025):
What surprised me was that Fidesz, despite Orbáns outspoken role, was more cautious to vote pro-Russia (at least until 2025):
December 9, 2025 at 11:25 AM
Finally, not surprising to see the AfD amongst the most pro-Russia groups, much more so than the Rassemblement National.
What surprised me was that Fidesz, despite Orbáns outspoken role, was more cautious to vote pro-Russia (at least until 2025):
What surprised me was that Fidesz, despite Orbáns outspoken role, was more cautious to vote pro-Russia (at least until 2025):
Reposted by Zselyke Csaky
Fascinating vote analysis on European Parliament votes on Russia by @euobserver.com, with a particular focus on far-right parties:
Europe’s new pro-Kremlin bloc takes shape in the European Parliament
Since taking office, the new European Parliament has voted on at least 14 resolutions concerning Russia and Ukraine — a test of how its fresh line-up approaches foreign policy. A new data-driven inves...
euobserver.com
December 9, 2025 at 11:25 AM
Fascinating vote analysis on European Parliament votes on Russia by @euobserver.com, with a particular focus on far-right parties:
Now that Babis is confirmed as prime minister, posting what I wrote earlier on what to expect in Czechia and the EU. Bottom line on the latter: a "rump" Visegrad is a possibility but its impact will heavily depend on the Hungarian elections www.cer.eu/insights/cer...
CER quick reaction: The Czech elections
Czechia’s elections mark a populist shift, but Babiš faces a hard path to form a government. The further he’s pulled to the right, the greater the risk of EU fragmentation.
www.cer.eu
December 9, 2025 at 11:15 AM
Now that Babis is confirmed as prime minister, posting what I wrote earlier on what to expect in Czechia and the EU. Bottom line on the latter: a "rump" Visegrad is a possibility but its impact will heavily depend on the Hungarian elections www.cer.eu/insights/cer...
The question many ask is whether this would be for safekeeping.
💰SCOOP: Hungary is in advanced talks with Russia on a plan to bypass US sanctions on Serbia’s mostly Russian-owned NIS oil firm by having a Hungarian firm buy shares. My sources say this is foreign minister Péter Szijjártó’s main topic at today’s Moscow trip—just 11 days after Orbán's Kremlin visit.
December 9, 2025 at 9:22 AM
The question many ask is whether this would be for safekeeping.
Indeed, very perceptive points raised by @maxbergmann.bsky.social and not something that the drafters of the EU's Democracy Shield had in mind, I suppose. The whole article is well worth a read www.csis.org/analysis/nss...
December 8, 2025 at 11:23 AM
Indeed, very perceptive points raised by @maxbergmann.bsky.social and not something that the drafters of the EU's Democracy Shield had in mind, I suppose. The whole article is well worth a read www.csis.org/analysis/nss...
Reposted by Zselyke Csaky
this is a direct consequence of the decisions made by the US to slash foreign health aid. BUT many European countries (inc UK) have also cut aid.
"For the first time in 25 years, child mortality rates for preventable diseases are projected to increase, after having declined for 25 years."
This is the legacy of aid cuts. ~AA
time.com/7338791/chil...
This is the legacy of aid cuts. ~AA
time.com/7338791/chil...
For the First Time This Century, Child Mortality Is Likely to Rise
The latest report from the Gates Foundation predicts an alarming trend for the health of children around the world.
time.com
December 8, 2025 at 11:00 AM
this is a direct consequence of the decisions made by the US to slash foreign health aid. BUT many European countries (inc UK) have also cut aid.