Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org
Civic entrepreneur building tech for democrats of all parties and none at Article7.eu. I also chair Unhack Democracy and write on foreign affairs, defence and democracy.
Pinned
Analysis: Protests push Bulgaria’s government to the edge
Deep-seated frustration with corruption comes to the fore in anti-government protests.
tvpworld.com
Those huge protests in Bulgaria may have been the biggest since the collapse of communism
So I wrote two pieces about them
First, for @tvpworld.bsky.social
tvpworld.com/90368003/gen...
So I wrote two pieces about them
First, for @tvpworld.bsky.social
tvpworld.com/90368003/gen...
Indeed.
If there’s a European plan, it’s to keep Trump talking and tell him US help to Ukraine is “leverage” over Russia. It needs to be accompanied by accelerated reduction of UA dependence on American support.
It’s not clear to me this is being accelerated enough.
If there’s a European plan, it’s to keep Trump talking and tell him US help to Ukraine is “leverage” over Russia. It needs to be accompanied by accelerated reduction of UA dependence on American support.
It’s not clear to me this is being accelerated enough.
I am still baffled that supposedly serious media still report about the peace negotiations and the security guarantees as if they were real. It's like they are reporting about a rain storm when all they need to do is to look out the window to see the sunny weather.
December 30, 2025 at 6:42 AM
Indeed.
If there’s a European plan, it’s to keep Trump talking and tell him US help to Ukraine is “leverage” over Russia. It needs to be accompanied by accelerated reduction of UA dependence on American support.
It’s not clear to me this is being accelerated enough.
If there’s a European plan, it’s to keep Trump talking and tell him US help to Ukraine is “leverage” over Russia. It needs to be accompanied by accelerated reduction of UA dependence on American support.
It’s not clear to me this is being accelerated enough.
Reposted by Garvan Walshe
Thus, any security guarantees are useless if the person who is meant to implement them is somebody like Trump, who cannot be trusted at all. And considering the current chaos in the U.S. there is a real risk American voters place another maniac in the White House soon again.
December 30, 2025 at 4:40 AM
Thus, any security guarantees are useless if the person who is meant to implement them is somebody like Trump, who cannot be trusted at all. And considering the current chaos in the U.S. there is a real risk American voters place another maniac in the White House soon again.
Trump: “Russia wants all of the Donbas : Ukraine’s against it. Positions need to be aligned.”
Also Trump: “this is very difficult.”
Also Trump: “this is very difficult.”
Summary of Zelenskyy and Trump talking points from their joint press conference after their Mar-a-Lago meeting on the US peace plan for Ukraine.
December 28, 2025 at 10:54 PM
Trump: “Russia wants all of the Donbas : Ukraine’s against it. Positions need to be aligned.”
Also Trump: “this is very difficult.”
Also Trump: “this is very difficult.”
With relevance to the EU too where there’s much ill guided industrial policy.
Interesting post on why manufacturing mania is misguided, but an idea that never really dies if you don’t believe too much in markets. Some lessons for Blue Labour here open.substack.com/pub/rbaldwin...
Is China misthinking manufacturing?
China’s problem isn’t just overproduction in manufacturing, it’s also underproduction of advanced services.
open.substack.com
December 28, 2025 at 11:27 AM
With relevance to the EU too where there’s much ill guided industrial policy.
Reposted by Garvan Walshe
12/12: Conclusion: Russia’s economy is alive but fragile. The buffers from 2022 are gone. Trust, liquidity, and confidence are now holding together a fragile system teetering on the brink. In this state, one major shock wouldn’t be absorbed, it would push it off the edge.
December 27, 2025 at 8:26 PM
12/12: Conclusion: Russia’s economy is alive but fragile. The buffers from 2022 are gone. Trust, liquidity, and confidence are now holding together a fragile system teetering on the brink. In this state, one major shock wouldn’t be absorbed, it would push it off the edge.
Erm. That’s how’s security guarantees work: we guarantee to go to war to protect someone. Otherwise they’re not guarantees.*
December 27, 2025 at 6:30 PM
Erm. That’s how’s security guarantees work: we guarantee to go to war to protect someone. Otherwise they’re not guarantees.*
Latest developments in “mechanized cavalry”
Russian cavalry prepares for assault. Direction highly classified.
December 27, 2025 at 12:30 PM
Latest developments in “mechanized cavalry”
And the guy thought pre-aicode was “perfect” 😂
You can ship vibe code, and it might even work, at first. But when it eventually breaks - and it will break - God have mercy on your soul debugging it.
Can't wait for the loosened up, non-perfect, but quickly shipped AI-enhanced updates to hit my banking and insurance services next year.
Im sure there will be no issues there at all.
Im sure there will be no issues there at all.
December 26, 2025 at 5:37 PM
And the guy thought pre-aicode was “perfect” 😂
Reposted by Garvan Walshe
A transatlantic showdown over tech policy (as opposed to, say, net zero) could actually have a unifying & galvanising political effect within the EU. The union’s digital regulations are broadly popular and many voters actually want more, not fewer, controls on Big Tech.
yougov.co.uk/technology/a...
yougov.co.uk/technology/a...
December 24, 2025 at 2:07 PM
A transatlantic showdown over tech policy (as opposed to, say, net zero) could actually have a unifying & galvanising political effect within the EU. The union’s digital regulations are broadly popular and many voters actually want more, not fewer, controls on Big Tech.
yougov.co.uk/technology/a...
yougov.co.uk/technology/a...
Reposted by Garvan Walshe
Oops.
"'All of us were more confident about large language models a year ago'... strategic shift away from generative AI toward more predictable "deterministic" automation... after Salesforce reportedly reduced its support staff from 9,000 to 5,000 employees...”
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/t...
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/t...
After laying off 4,000 employees and automating with AI agents, Salesforce executives admit: We were more confident about…. - The Times of India
Tech News News: Salesforce, one of the world's most valuable enterprise software companies, is pulling back from its heavy reliance on large language models after enc.
timesofindia.indiatimes.com
December 23, 2025 at 11:40 AM
Oops.
On the first day of Christmas my Trumpy gave to me…
A pardon in a pear tree
A pardon in a pear tree
➡️ 15 Ambassadorships
➡️ 2 Pardons
➡️ Hundreds of White House invitations
➡️ 13 Dropped investigations
➡️ Dozens of executive actions
Inside Trump’s FUNDRAISING BONANZA at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. W/ @kenvogel.bsky.social (1/2)
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
➡️ 2 Pardons
➡️ Hundreds of White House invitations
➡️ 13 Dropped investigations
➡️ Dozens of executive actions
Inside Trump’s FUNDRAISING BONANZA at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. W/ @kenvogel.bsky.social (1/2)
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Hundreds of Big Post-Election Donors Have Benefited From Trump’s Return to Office
Well into his second term, the president and his allies have continued aggressively raising money. Many donors have interests before his administration, The Times found.
www.nytimes.com
December 22, 2025 at 8:22 PM
On the first day of Christmas my Trumpy gave to me…
A pardon in a pear tree
A pardon in a pear tree
Lunacy. Even Saudi Arabia’s building wind turbines.
Burgum: "Today we're sending notifications to the 5 large offshore wind projects that are under construction that their leases will be suspended due to national security concerns ... the Dept of War has come back conclusively that these large offshore wind programs create radar interference"
December 22, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Lunacy. Even Saudi Arabia’s building wind turbines.
Charles Tilly, somewhere in heaven, smiles in appreciation
Achtung ⚠️ FAZ has already declared the return of Eurobonds. Much of Germany's economics community is now taking this at face value.
"Eurobonds für die Ukraine"
www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...
"Eurobonds für die Ukraine"
www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...
EU-Gipfel beschließt Eurobonds für die Ukraine
Der EU-Gipfel verlief nicht so, wie es sich der Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz vorgestellt hatte. Beschlossen wurde die Finanzierung der Ukraine-Hilfe über Gemeinschaftsleihen. Was bedeutet das?
www.faz.net
December 21, 2025 at 10:48 PM
Charles Tilly, somewhere in heaven, smiles in appreciation
How St Paul’s ensures the protected views of the cathedral stay that way
Rare footage of St Paul’s Cathedral testing its giant flamethrower
December 21, 2025 at 2:09 PM
How St Paul’s ensures the protected views of the cathedral stay that way
Internal Russian negotiating team meeting latest
Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev arrived at a Miami golf club for another round of golf club diplomacy with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
December 20, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Internal Russian negotiating team meeting latest
The Trump administration wants to carve Europe up for profit.
Fortunately, Europe, and allies in Congress, are fighting back
Fortunately, Europe, and allies in Congress, are fighting back
The Trump administration’s new national security strategy is yet another warning for Europeans that this administration means them ill
🧵
conservativehome.com/2025/12/18/g...
🧵
conservativehome.com/2025/12/18/g...
Garvan Walshe: Trump’s new National Security Strategy - an unexploded bomb under the transatlantic alliance | Conservative Home
Traditional allies of the United States have, however, plenty of instruments to ensure it can be defused, while building up their independent military industrial base and armed forces.
conservativehome.com
December 20, 2025 at 3:53 PM
The Trump administration wants to carve Europe up for profit.
Fortunately, Europe, and allies in Congress, are fighting back
Fortunately, Europe, and allies in Congress, are fighting back
A war on another continent that has invested $2 trillion in the United Stated and in which the US has invested $2 trillion.
Rubio on Russia-Ukraine: "It's not our war. It's a war on another continent."
December 20, 2025 at 9:23 AM
A war on another continent that has invested $2 trillion in the United Stated and in which the US has invested $2 trillion.
This is no more likely than Ireland increasing its defence budget to an acceptable level, but we could maybe ask Santa for both.
Merry Christmas 🦌🎄🦌
(Whole thread is useful)
Merry Christmas 🦌🎄🦌
(Whole thread is useful)
In this context, the fact that Belgium keeps making windfall revenue on immobilized Russian reserves (via taxation of Euroclear) must be re-examined. Belgium should transfer all that corporate tax income, with retroactive effect starting March 2022, to Ukraine in a transparent manner. Now. (2/2)
December 19, 2025 at 11:15 AM
This is no more likely than Ireland increasing its defence budget to an acceptable level, but we could maybe ask Santa for both.
Merry Christmas 🦌🎄🦌
(Whole thread is useful)
Merry Christmas 🦌🎄🦌
(Whole thread is useful)
Reposted by Garvan Walshe
Using enhanced cooperation is very significant from an institutional perspective. Now for the future, the question is if this is the rump Visegrad we can expect to see more? A lot will depend on the outcome of the Hungarian election.
EU governments agree on €90bn joint loan to Ukraine for 2026-27, structured through unprecedented use of enhanced cooperation.
24 member states in, 3 out (HU, CZ, SK). But the constitutional implications are significant. 🧵
24 member states in, 3 out (HU, CZ, SK). But the constitutional implications are significant. 🧵
December 19, 2025 at 9:46 AM
Using enhanced cooperation is very significant from an institutional perspective. Now for the future, the question is if this is the rump Visegrad we can expect to see more? A lot will depend on the outcome of the Hungarian election.
Communism’s never been properly tried latest
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... The Brexit implementation fiasco
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... The Brexit implementation fiasco
The Brexit implementation fiasco
It is not too late to reverse bad policy but that requires good governance
giftarticle.ft.com
December 19, 2025 at 9:40 AM
Communism’s never been properly tried latest
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... The Brexit implementation fiasco
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... The Brexit implementation fiasco
Clear explanation of EU Ukraine funding decision here
A quick explanation of how this borrowing to assist Ukraine will work. "Enhanced cooperation" means EU law is being used, but some Member States opt out. The process has been applied a few times before, but never before re the EU budget. 1/
🚨 The latest conclusions say the EU will trigger Article 20 of enhanced cooperation to ensure that any mobilisation of EU resources to guarantee joint debt "will not have an impact on the financial obligations of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia," as previously reported by Euronews.
December 19, 2025 at 8:49 AM
Clear explanation of EU Ukraine funding decision here
Sleeping with the Enemy…
Apparently this coming year I will be joining a police academy with a group of lovable misfits.
Friday the 13th. 😑
December 19, 2025 at 8:43 AM
Sleeping with the Enemy…
Reposted by Garvan Walshe
2/ Two factions are linking up, ominously
1 - Vance’s which wants nationalists to win, and don’t mind a a weaker europe as long as it’s a whiter one
2 - The pro-Russians who want a weaker Europe and think nationalists - even anti-Russian ones like Poland’s Nawrocki - are a way to get one
1 - Vance’s which wants nationalists to win, and don’t mind a a weaker europe as long as it’s a whiter one
2 - The pro-Russians who want a weaker Europe and think nationalists - even anti-Russian ones like Poland’s Nawrocki - are a way to get one
December 18, 2025 at 12:03 PM
2/ Two factions are linking up, ominously
1 - Vance’s which wants nationalists to win, and don’t mind a a weaker europe as long as it’s a whiter one
2 - The pro-Russians who want a weaker Europe and think nationalists - even anti-Russian ones like Poland’s Nawrocki - are a way to get one
1 - Vance’s which wants nationalists to win, and don’t mind a a weaker europe as long as it’s a whiter one
2 - The pro-Russians who want a weaker Europe and think nationalists - even anti-Russian ones like Poland’s Nawrocki - are a way to get one
Reposted by Garvan Walshe
The Trump administration’s new national security strategy is yet another warning for Europeans that this administration means them ill
🧵
conservativehome.com/2025/12/18/g...
🧵
conservativehome.com/2025/12/18/g...
Garvan Walshe: Trump’s new National Security Strategy - an unexploded bomb under the transatlantic alliance | Conservative Home
Traditional allies of the United States have, however, plenty of instruments to ensure it can be defused, while building up their independent military industrial base and armed forces.
conservativehome.com
December 18, 2025 at 12:00 PM
The Trump administration’s new national security strategy is yet another warning for Europeans that this administration means them ill
🧵
conservativehome.com/2025/12/18/g...
🧵
conservativehome.com/2025/12/18/g...
Hah.
December 18, 2025 at 6:00 PM
Hah.