Felix Schenuit
@felixschenuit.bsky.social
researcher @SWP Berlin • IPCC AR 7 WGIII Lead Author • views my own
Reposted by Felix Schenuit
To round up this week, here is my flash analysis of this month's EP plenary. This includes:
- Power: Who won the votes?
- Coalitions
- Far-Right Watch: Votes on which the far-right was decisive
- Group Coherence
- The national view: How often MEPs from each EU country are part of the majority
- Power: Who won the votes?
- Coalitions
- Far-Right Watch: Votes on which the far-right was decisive
- Group Coherence
- The national view: How often MEPs from each EU country are part of the majority
The less visible dominance of the EPP
EP 9-12 February 2026 Flash Analysis
open.substack.com
February 13, 2026 at 4:42 PM
To round up this week, here is my flash analysis of this month's EP plenary. This includes:
- Power: Who won the votes?
- Coalitions
- Far-Right Watch: Votes on which the far-right was decisive
- Group Coherence
- The national view: How often MEPs from each EU country are part of the majority
- Power: Who won the votes?
- Coalitions
- Far-Right Watch: Votes on which the far-right was decisive
- Group Coherence
- The national view: How often MEPs from each EU country are part of the majority
Reposted by Felix Schenuit
Great overview on the state of EU climate policy 👇
Tl;dr: "Despite the shifting political landscape, the EU has demonstrated its ability to act. But: major concessions on review clauses, flexibilities & conditions have increased policy uncertainty - posing new risks to policy instruments"
Tl;dr: "Despite the shifting political landscape, the EU has demonstrated its ability to act. But: major concessions on review clauses, flexibilities & conditions have increased policy uncertainty - posing new risks to policy instruments"
It may be surprising that the EU's Climate Law - including the net 90% target for 2040 - passed in the European Parliament. A closer look at the adopted text explains why those in the EPP who favour weaker climate ambition could support the deal and did not vote with the far-right parties. /1
February 13, 2026 at 11:34 AM
Great overview on the state of EU climate policy 👇
Tl;dr: "Despite the shifting political landscape, the EU has demonstrated its ability to act. But: major concessions on review clauses, flexibilities & conditions have increased policy uncertainty - posing new risks to policy instruments"
Tl;dr: "Despite the shifting political landscape, the EU has demonstrated its ability to act. But: major concessions on review clauses, flexibilities & conditions have increased policy uncertainty - posing new risks to policy instruments"
New headwinds for the ETS from EU leaders. EUCO President Costa:
“It is true that there are some leaders who don’t like ETS, but there several leaders who like ETS and took the floor to defend the system and that’s the reason we need to continue our discussion on this issue.”
“It is true that there are some leaders who don’t like ETS, but there several leaders who like ETS and took the floor to defend the system and that’s the reason we need to continue our discussion on this issue.”
February 12, 2026 at 7:29 PM
New headwinds for the ETS from EU leaders. EUCO President Costa:
“It is true that there are some leaders who don’t like ETS, but there several leaders who like ETS and took the floor to defend the system and that’s the reason we need to continue our discussion on this issue.”
“It is true that there are some leaders who don’t like ETS, but there several leaders who like ETS and took the floor to defend the system and that’s the reason we need to continue our discussion on this issue.”
Reposted by Felix Schenuit
📢 Neue Analyse: Wie lässt sich eine #Infrastruktur zur Abscheidung und Speicherung von CO2 ( #CCS) aufbauen und mit welchen Kosten ist zu rechnen?
Gemeinsam mit dem @oekoinstitut.bsky.social haben wir diese Frage auf Basis aktueller Projektdaten genauer untersucht. 1/x
Gemeinsam mit dem @oekoinstitut.bsky.social haben wir diese Frage auf Basis aktueller Projektdaten genauer untersucht. 1/x
February 12, 2026 at 1:23 PM
📢 Neue Analyse: Wie lässt sich eine #Infrastruktur zur Abscheidung und Speicherung von CO2 ( #CCS) aufbauen und mit welchen Kosten ist zu rechnen?
Gemeinsam mit dem @oekoinstitut.bsky.social haben wir diese Frage auf Basis aktueller Projektdaten genauer untersucht. 1/x
Gemeinsam mit dem @oekoinstitut.bsky.social haben wir diese Frage auf Basis aktueller Projektdaten genauer untersucht. 1/x
Reposted by Felix Schenuit
Breaking: China’s CO2 emissions fell by 1% in the final quarter of 2025, likely securing a decline of 0.3% for the full year as a whole. This extends a “flat or falling” trend in China’s CO2 emissions that began in March 2024 and has now lasted for nearly two years.
NEW – Analysis: China’s CO2 emissions have now been ‘flat or falling’ for 21 months | @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social @creacleanair.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/wC1nbXO
Read here: buff.ly/wC1nbXO
February 12, 2026 at 7:37 AM
Breaking: China’s CO2 emissions fell by 1% in the final quarter of 2025, likely securing a decline of 0.3% for the full year as a whole. This extends a “flat or falling” trend in China’s CO2 emissions that began in March 2024 and has now lasted for nearly two years.
Reposted by Felix Schenuit
It may be surprising that the EU's Climate Law - including the net 90% target for 2040 - passed in the European Parliament. A closer look at the adopted text explains why those in the EPP who favour weaker climate ambition could support the deal and did not vote with the far-right parties. /1
February 11, 2026 at 4:29 PM
It may be surprising that the EU's Climate Law - including the net 90% target for 2040 - passed in the European Parliament. A closer look at the adopted text explains why those in the EPP who favour weaker climate ambition could support the deal and did not vote with the far-right parties. /1
It may be surprising that the EU's Climate Law - including the net 90% target for 2040 - passed in the European Parliament. A closer look at the adopted text explains why those in the EPP who favour weaker climate ambition could support the deal and did not vote with the far-right parties. /1
February 11, 2026 at 4:29 PM
It may be surprising that the EU's Climate Law - including the net 90% target for 2040 - passed in the European Parliament. A closer look at the adopted text explains why those in the EPP who favour weaker climate ambition could support the deal and did not vote with the far-right parties. /1
Reposted by Felix Schenuit
Further working on my analytical tool for EU-Analytics. If you look at the (just 11) main votes in the European Parliament on migration in this legislature, the EPP now votes more often together with the ECR, PfE and ESN than with its 'von der Leyen' platform partners:
February 10, 2026 at 3:52 PM
Further working on my analytical tool for EU-Analytics. If you look at the (just 11) main votes in the European Parliament on migration in this legislature, the EPP now votes more often together with the ECR, PfE and ESN than with its 'von der Leyen' platform partners:
Reposted by Felix Schenuit
The wierdness of the current European Parliament, however, means that on the same day a hardening of migration laws is adopted with the help of the far-right, a broad majority of the centre plus the Greens adopt a progressive climate law, against the far-right:
C’est une victoire !
Le Parlement européen vient d’adopter la loi climat, fruit d’une large coalition, des Verts à la droite rationnelle, unie autour d’un objectif commun : répondre à l’urgence climatique et assumer la responsabilité historique de l’Europe.
(1/3)
Le Parlement européen vient d’adopter la loi climat, fruit d’une large coalition, des Verts à la droite rationnelle, unie autour d’un objectif commun : répondre à l’urgence climatique et assumer la responsabilité historique de l’Europe.
(1/3)
February 10, 2026 at 2:31 PM
The wierdness of the current European Parliament, however, means that on the same day a hardening of migration laws is adopted with the help of the far-right, a broad majority of the centre plus the Greens adopt a progressive climate law, against the far-right:
Reposted by Felix Schenuit
As expected, all three votes today on the aspects of the 'safe third countries' list at EU level were carried by the EPP with the three far-right parties.
Each of the votes looked like a variation of this (data via @howtheyvote.eu):
Each of the votes looked like a variation of this (data via @howtheyvote.eu):
February 10, 2026 at 1:48 PM
As expected, all three votes today on the aspects of the 'safe third countries' list at EU level were carried by the EPP with the three far-right parties.
Each of the votes looked like a variation of this (data via @howtheyvote.eu):
Each of the votes looked like a variation of this (data via @howtheyvote.eu):
Reposted by Felix Schenuit
January 2026 was a reminder that EU politics is no longer just “centre vs far right”, it is increasingly unpredictable.
In my new EU Analytics monthly review, I look at the 22 EP votes, the special case of Mercosur and a couple of Council votes and what they tell us about current EU politics:
In my new EU Analytics monthly review, I look at the 22 EP votes, the special case of Mercosur and a couple of Council votes and what they tell us about current EU politics:
EU Analytics January 2026 review
The unpredictability of a shifting EU political landscape
nicolaivonondarza.substack.com
February 5, 2026 at 3:16 PM
January 2026 was a reminder that EU politics is no longer just “centre vs far right”, it is increasingly unpredictable.
In my new EU Analytics monthly review, I look at the 22 EP votes, the special case of Mercosur and a couple of Council votes and what they tell us about current EU politics:
In my new EU Analytics monthly review, I look at the 22 EP votes, the special case of Mercosur and a couple of Council votes and what they tell us about current EU politics:
Reposted by Felix Schenuit
Netherlands and China are on the way to being the next Norway, where internal combustion engine auto sales are nearly dead.
BEVs were 65% of Dutch auto sales in December and 41% for 2025.
In China, internal combustion autos market share falls to ~40%.
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/ #energysky
BEVs were 65% of Dutch auto sales in December and 41% for 2025.
In China, internal combustion autos market share falls to ~40%.
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/ #energysky
February 4, 2026 at 12:58 PM
Netherlands and China are on the way to being the next Norway, where internal combustion engine auto sales are nearly dead.
BEVs were 65% of Dutch auto sales in December and 41% for 2025.
In China, internal combustion autos market share falls to ~40%.
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/ #energysky
BEVs were 65% of Dutch auto sales in December and 41% for 2025.
In China, internal combustion autos market share falls to ~40%.
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/ #energysky
Reposted by Felix Schenuit
Germany substantially increased direct LNG imports, and import capacity during the past three years.
Nominally, there is still a lot of underutilised import capacity.
Nominally, there is still a lot of underutilised import capacity.
February 4, 2026 at 9:57 AM
Germany substantially increased direct LNG imports, and import capacity during the past three years.
Nominally, there is still a lot of underutilised import capacity.
Nominally, there is still a lot of underutilised import capacity.
Reposted by Felix Schenuit
A wonky but important development: Batteries are now eligible, along with coal plants, to receive payments to stabilize China's grid. That could put coal under more competitive pressure in the future:
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
China to Boost Batteries Sector with New Grid Backup Policy
The Chinese government will help underpin the nationwide boom in large-scale batteries by expanding its subsidies for energy storage.
www.bloomberg.com
February 4, 2026 at 10:17 AM
A wonky but important development: Batteries are now eligible, along with coal plants, to receive payments to stabilize China's grid. That could put coal under more competitive pressure in the future:
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Felix Schenuit
BREAKING: The EU has launched an in-depth investigation into Chinese wind turbine maker Goldwind.
This is under the foreign subsidies regulation, which the commission uses to weed out subsidies distorting the single market (rather than trade flows)
This is under the foreign subsidies regulation, which the commission uses to weed out subsidies distorting the single market (rather than trade flows)
Breaking | EU launches probe into Chinese wind turbine maker Goldwind
Investigation will focus on claims that state subsidies from Beijing illegally boosted the company’s position in European markets.
www.scmp.com
February 3, 2026 at 10:51 AM
BREAKING: The EU has launched an in-depth investigation into Chinese wind turbine maker Goldwind.
This is under the foreign subsidies regulation, which the commission uses to weed out subsidies distorting the single market (rather than trade flows)
This is under the foreign subsidies regulation, which the commission uses to weed out subsidies distorting the single market (rather than trade flows)
Reposted by Felix Schenuit
🔆China electricity consumption to grow 5%-6% in 2026
said China Electricity Council in its latest 2025-2026 analysis and outlook report
For 2026, it also expects power peak load to rise to 1570-1630 GW, and Solar capacity to take over Coal
said China Electricity Council in its latest 2025-2026 analysis and outlook report
For 2026, it also expects power peak load to rise to 1570-1630 GW, and Solar capacity to take over Coal
February 3, 2026 at 9:43 AM
🔆China electricity consumption to grow 5%-6% in 2026
said China Electricity Council in its latest 2025-2026 analysis and outlook report
For 2026, it also expects power peak load to rise to 1570-1630 GW, and Solar capacity to take over Coal
said China Electricity Council in its latest 2025-2026 analysis and outlook report
For 2026, it also expects power peak load to rise to 1570-1630 GW, and Solar capacity to take over Coal
Reposted by Felix Schenuit
Probably the most foolish fossil fuel subsidy.
"The aging facilities that were scheduled for retirement are in disrepair and require expensive investments to keep operating safely [...] Ratepayers nationally will take on as much as $6 billion in higher costs by 2028 if this pattern continues."
"The aging facilities that were scheduled for retirement are in disrepair and require expensive investments to keep operating safely [...] Ratepayers nationally will take on as much as $6 billion in higher costs by 2028 if this pattern continues."
Opinion | Trump’s pro-coal directives could raise energy prices by billions
Requiring aging plants to operate after their scheduled closures hurts consumers, who pay the price.
www.washingtonpost.com
February 2, 2026 at 11:03 AM
Probably the most foolish fossil fuel subsidy.
"The aging facilities that were scheduled for retirement are in disrepair and require expensive investments to keep operating safely [...] Ratepayers nationally will take on as much as $6 billion in higher costs by 2028 if this pattern continues."
"The aging facilities that were scheduled for retirement are in disrepair and require expensive investments to keep operating safely [...] Ratepayers nationally will take on as much as $6 billion in higher costs by 2028 if this pattern continues."
Reposted by Felix Schenuit
I teach my students to always start the y-axis at 0 when making a bar chart for a reason
x.com/WhiteHouse/s...
x.com/WhiteHouse/s...
February 2, 2026 at 3:37 PM
I teach my students to always start the y-axis at 0 when making a bar chart for a reason
x.com/WhiteHouse/s...
x.com/WhiteHouse/s...
Probably the most foolish fossil fuel subsidy.
"The aging facilities that were scheduled for retirement are in disrepair and require expensive investments to keep operating safely [...] Ratepayers nationally will take on as much as $6 billion in higher costs by 2028 if this pattern continues."
"The aging facilities that were scheduled for retirement are in disrepair and require expensive investments to keep operating safely [...] Ratepayers nationally will take on as much as $6 billion in higher costs by 2028 if this pattern continues."
Opinion | Trump’s pro-coal directives could raise energy prices by billions
Requiring aging plants to operate after their scheduled closures hurts consumers, who pay the price.
www.washingtonpost.com
February 2, 2026 at 11:03 AM
Probably the most foolish fossil fuel subsidy.
"The aging facilities that were scheduled for retirement are in disrepair and require expensive investments to keep operating safely [...] Ratepayers nationally will take on as much as $6 billion in higher costs by 2028 if this pattern continues."
"The aging facilities that were scheduled for retirement are in disrepair and require expensive investments to keep operating safely [...] Ratepayers nationally will take on as much as $6 billion in higher costs by 2028 if this pattern continues."
Reposted by Felix Schenuit
Starkes Wachstum bei Wärmepumpen und Biomasse-Heizungen, starker Einbruch bei Gas- und Ölheizungen.
Das zeigt: Die Wärmewende läuft (fast) wie geplant.
(Dass die Gesamtzahl weiterhin etwas niedriger liegt als im Mittel früherer Jahre ist angesichts des Vorzieh-Effekts 2023 nicht überraschend.)
Das zeigt: Die Wärmewende läuft (fast) wie geplant.
(Dass die Gesamtzahl weiterhin etwas niedriger liegt als im Mittel früherer Jahre ist angesichts des Vorzieh-Effekts 2023 nicht überraschend.)
February 1, 2026 at 10:48 AM
Starkes Wachstum bei Wärmepumpen und Biomasse-Heizungen, starker Einbruch bei Gas- und Ölheizungen.
Das zeigt: Die Wärmewende läuft (fast) wie geplant.
(Dass die Gesamtzahl weiterhin etwas niedriger liegt als im Mittel früherer Jahre ist angesichts des Vorzieh-Effekts 2023 nicht überraschend.)
Das zeigt: Die Wärmewende läuft (fast) wie geplant.
(Dass die Gesamtzahl weiterhin etwas niedriger liegt als im Mittel früherer Jahre ist angesichts des Vorzieh-Effekts 2023 nicht überraschend.)
New milestone in the EU energy transition: battery EV sales surpassed petrol cars for the 1st time in 2025.
Some countries experienced high increases: Germany (+43.2%), Netherlands (+18.1%), Belgium (+12.6%), France (+12.5%)
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-evs...
@mollylempriere.carbonbrief.org
Some countries experienced high increases: Germany (+43.2%), Netherlands (+18.1%), Belgium (+12.6%), France (+12.5%)
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-evs...
@mollylempriere.carbonbrief.org
January 28, 2026 at 8:50 AM
New milestone in the EU energy transition: battery EV sales surpassed petrol cars for the 1st time in 2025.
Some countries experienced high increases: Germany (+43.2%), Netherlands (+18.1%), Belgium (+12.6%), France (+12.5%)
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-evs...
@mollylempriere.carbonbrief.org
Some countries experienced high increases: Germany (+43.2%), Netherlands (+18.1%), Belgium (+12.6%), France (+12.5%)
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-evs...
@mollylempriere.carbonbrief.org
Reposted by Felix Schenuit
New from us - captive coal power plant projects linked to energy intensive industrial plants keep proliferating in Indonesia, jeopardizing the country's targets for coal phase out and net zero emissions, while also messing up energy planning.
January 27, 2026 at 7:57 AM
New from us - captive coal power plant projects linked to energy intensive industrial plants keep proliferating in Indonesia, jeopardizing the country's targets for coal phase out and net zero emissions, while also messing up energy planning.
Reposted by Felix Schenuit
1) Relevant to debate over pre-print by @jayvanbavel.bsky.social et al. — is 50 years of research on fallacies in "counting expert consensus." For a start, see STS researchers on 97% climate consensus campaign, which is the main model for the social media effort. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
January 26, 2026 at 11:29 PM
1) Relevant to debate over pre-print by @jayvanbavel.bsky.social et al. — is 50 years of research on fallacies in "counting expert consensus." For a start, see STS researchers on 97% climate consensus campaign, which is the main model for the social media effort. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Felix Schenuit
Bei der Aufregung um den CDU-Antrag zu EU-Klimaneutralität gilt es auf Details zu achten: Alle aktuellen Szenarien der EU Kommission gehen davon aus, dass die BRUTTO-Emissionen (d.h. alles emittierte, vor Verrechnung mit Bindung von CO2) im Jahr 2050 um nur knapp mehr als 90% sinken müssen. [1/3]
January 23, 2026 at 9:37 PM
Bei der Aufregung um den CDU-Antrag zu EU-Klimaneutralität gilt es auf Details zu achten: Alle aktuellen Szenarien der EU Kommission gehen davon aus, dass die BRUTTO-Emissionen (d.h. alles emittierte, vor Verrechnung mit Bindung von CO2) im Jahr 2050 um nur knapp mehr als 90% sinken müssen. [1/3]
Bei der Aufregung um den CDU-Antrag zu EU-Klimaneutralität gilt es auf Details zu achten: Alle aktuellen Szenarien der EU Kommission gehen davon aus, dass die BRUTTO-Emissionen (d.h. alles emittierte, vor Verrechnung mit Bindung von CO2) im Jahr 2050 um nur knapp mehr als 90% sinken müssen. [1/3]
January 23, 2026 at 9:37 PM
Bei der Aufregung um den CDU-Antrag zu EU-Klimaneutralität gilt es auf Details zu achten: Alle aktuellen Szenarien der EU Kommission gehen davon aus, dass die BRUTTO-Emissionen (d.h. alles emittierte, vor Verrechnung mit Bindung von CO2) im Jahr 2050 um nur knapp mehr als 90% sinken müssen. [1/3]