Lauri Myllyvirta
@laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social
Co-founder and lead analyst, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air; senior fellow, Asia Society Policy Institute: tracking & accelerating progress from polluting energy to clean air, with research and evidence.
NEW from me: CO2 emissions in China have now been flat or falling for 18 months, the first time that energy demand growth at or above historical averages doesn't drive emissions up, thanks to the clean energy boom. 🧵👇
🇨🇳 📰 NEW | Analysis: #China’s #CO2 #emissions have now been flat or falling for 18 months
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-have-now-been-flat-or-falling-for-18-months/
@laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social w/ @carbonbrief.org
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-have-now-been-flat-or-falling-for-18-months/
@laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social w/ @carbonbrief.org
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
NEW from me: CO2 emissions in China have now been flat or falling for 18 months, the first time that energy demand growth at or above historical averages doesn't drive emissions up, thanks to the clean energy boom. 🧵👇
Reposted by Lauri Myllyvirta
🇨🇳 📰 NEW | Analysis: #China’s #CO2 #emissions have now been flat or falling for 18 months
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-have-now-been-flat-or-falling-for-18-months/
@laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social w/ @carbonbrief.org
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-have-now-been-flat-or-falling-for-18-months/
@laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social w/ @carbonbrief.org
November 11, 2025 at 2:27 AM
🇨🇳 📰 NEW | Analysis: #China’s #CO2 #emissions have now been flat or falling for 18 months
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-have-now-been-flat-or-falling-for-18-months/
@laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social w/ @carbonbrief.org
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-have-now-been-flat-or-falling-for-18-months/
@laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social w/ @carbonbrief.org
China's formal submission of its new climate targets leaves out the commitment made in 2021 to gradually reduce coal consumption in 2026-30. It does reiterate the commitment to reduce carbon intensity, which is currently badly off track, but doesn't provide any progress update.
November 9, 2025 at 1:01 PM
China's formal submission of its new climate targets leaves out the commitment made in 2021 to gradually reduce coal consumption in 2026-30. It does reiterate the commitment to reduce carbon intensity, which is currently badly off track, but doesn't provide any progress update.
China's first solar and wind auction under the new competitive contracting system, in Shandong, was a shock to solar developers due to low prices. After 5 more auctions, things look more balanced or at least more varied. No other province saw as large cuts to pricing as Shandong.
November 9, 2025 at 12:23 PM
China's first solar and wind auction under the new competitive contracting system, in Shandong, was a shock to solar developers due to low prices. After 5 more auctions, things look more balanced or at least more varied. No other province saw as large cuts to pricing as Shandong.
China's new climate targets made it clear that policymakers are still leaving the door open to a rebound in emissions in the next few years, despite a recent falling trend and clean energy growth rates that will keep emissions falling if sustained.
🇨🇳 NEW | Experts think #China can exceed its new 2035 #NDCs, but are less certain about short-term #emissions cuts
Full China Climate Transition Outlook 2025 survey:
energyandcleanair.org/publication/chinas-climate-transition-outlook-2025-expert-survey/
w/ @belindaschaepe.bsky.social; Xunpeng Shi
Full China Climate Transition Outlook 2025 survey:
energyandcleanair.org/publication/chinas-climate-transition-outlook-2025-expert-survey/
w/ @belindaschaepe.bsky.social; Xunpeng Shi
November 6, 2025 at 5:10 AM
China's new climate targets made it clear that policymakers are still leaving the door open to a rebound in emissions in the next few years, despite a recent falling trend and clean energy growth rates that will keep emissions falling if sustained.
Reposted by Lauri Myllyvirta
🇨🇳 🇺🇳 NEW | Report: Assessing China’s overseas coal power ban 4 years on
Following President Xi's 2021 pledge of no new overseas coal projects, 59.3GW of projects have been cancelled, or 6.1bn tonnes of avoided lifetime carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, yet loopholes persist
Following President Xi's 2021 pledge of no new overseas coal projects, 59.3GW of projects have been cancelled, or 6.1bn tonnes of avoided lifetime carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, yet loopholes persist
November 3, 2025 at 12:30 AM
🇨🇳 🇺🇳 NEW | Report: Assessing China’s overseas coal power ban 4 years on
Following President Xi's 2021 pledge of no new overseas coal projects, 59.3GW of projects have been cancelled, or 6.1bn tonnes of avoided lifetime carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, yet loopholes persist
Following President Xi's 2021 pledge of no new overseas coal projects, 59.3GW of projects have been cancelled, or 6.1bn tonnes of avoided lifetime carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, yet loopholes persist
Quarterly results of China's and the world's largest oil refiner Sinopec: China's consumption of transport fuels (gasoline, diesel and kerosene) fell 4% year-on-year in Jan-Sep, due to the impact of "alternative energy" i.e. EVs, speeding up from 3.6% drop in H1.
November 3, 2025 at 7:05 AM
Quarterly results of China's and the world's largest oil refiner Sinopec: China's consumption of transport fuels (gasoline, diesel and kerosene) fell 4% year-on-year in Jan-Sep, due to the impact of "alternative energy" i.e. EVs, speeding up from 3.6% drop in H1.
Far as I can tell, the five-year plan recommendations are the first time that the Central Committee has explicitly called for electrification of energy use. The previous five-year plans only had it in the energy sector plan, so elevating it to the top level is significant.
The construction of a “new power system” that can efficiently integrate renewables still needs to be “accelerated”. Other areas of acceleration are electricity storage, which should be “developed vigorously”, and electrification of final energy consumption.
October 29, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Far as I can tell, the five-year plan recommendations are the first time that the Central Committee has explicitly called for electrification of energy use. The previous five-year plans only had it in the energy sector plan, so elevating it to the top level is significant.
The Central Committee of the Communist Party lays out the key directions and priorities for China for the next five years. It reaffirms the importance of clean energy for China's energy, economic and industrial policy, but raises concerns about commitment to 2030 climate targets.
October 29, 2025 at 6:13 AM
The Central Committee of the Communist Party lays out the key directions and priorities for China for the next five years. It reaffirms the importance of clean energy for China's energy, economic and industrial policy, but raises concerns about commitment to 2030 climate targets.
NEW from us: current clean energy targets and trends enable China, India, and Indonesia to peak power sector emissions by 2030. This would be a global breakthrough given that these nations have been the largest growth markets for coal in the decade since the Paris Agreement.
bsky.app/profile/crea...
bsky.app/profile/crea...
🇨🇳 🇮🇳 🇮🇩 NEW | #China, #India, and #Indonesia: the world's top #coal growth markets can all peak #emissions by 2030
@laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social
@manojkumarnr.bsky.social
energyandcleanair.org/publication/china-india-and-indonesia-the-worlds-top-coal-growth-markets-can-all-peak-emissions-by-2030
@laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social
@manojkumarnr.bsky.social
energyandcleanair.org/publication/china-india-and-indonesia-the-worlds-top-coal-growth-markets-can-all-peak-emissions-by-2030
October 28, 2025 at 6:09 AM
NEW from us: current clean energy targets and trends enable China, India, and Indonesia to peak power sector emissions by 2030. This would be a global breakthrough given that these nations have been the largest growth markets for coal in the decade since the Paris Agreement.
bsky.app/profile/crea...
bsky.app/profile/crea...
China power generation capacity additions in September:
Solar +9.3 GW
Wind +2.6
Nuclear +1.5
Hydro +0.6
Thermal (~coal&gas) +9.1 GW
Still very slow for solar&wind after the surge in May, but on track for a new record for the whole year.
Coal looking as bad as expected.
Solar +9.3 GW
Wind +2.6
Nuclear +1.5
Hydro +0.6
Thermal (~coal&gas) +9.1 GW
Still very slow for solar&wind after the surge in May, but on track for a new record for the whole year.
Coal looking as bad as expected.
October 27, 2025 at 11:44 AM
China power generation capacity additions in September:
Solar +9.3 GW
Wind +2.6
Nuclear +1.5
Hydro +0.6
Thermal (~coal&gas) +9.1 GW
Still very slow for solar&wind after the surge in May, but on track for a new record for the whole year.
Coal looking as bad as expected.
Solar +9.3 GW
Wind +2.6
Nuclear +1.5
Hydro +0.6
Thermal (~coal&gas) +9.1 GW
Still very slow for solar&wind after the surge in May, but on track for a new record for the whole year.
Coal looking as bad as expected.
What it'd cost for Europe to be self-sufficient in solar panels: +~20% to the cost of panels if produced from Chinese cells; +50% for European cells, +75% for European ingots and wafers. BUT even the last option is just +15-20% to the cost of utility-scale & +5% for residential.
October 27, 2025 at 7:49 AM
What it'd cost for Europe to be self-sufficient in solar panels: +~20% to the cost of panels if produced from Chinese cells; +50% for European cells, +75% for European ingots and wafers. BUT even the last option is just +15-20% to the cost of utility-scale & +5% for residential.
Last new coal plant proposals cancelled or shelved in Thailand, Kenya, Tajikistan & Uzbekistan, Cambodia deciding not to build any new coal, Morocco committing to a 2040 coal phase-out, proposals for new coal power outside China at record low - lots of progress happening outside front page news.
New data from our Global #CoalPlant Tracker is out. A few key trends:
📉 Countries w/coal power under dev't hit a record low — only 33 remain since the Paris Agreement.
📉 New proposals fell below 2 GW in Q3 2025 — 85% below recent averages.
Explore the data ⤵️
globalenergymonitor.org/projects/glo...
📉 Countries w/coal power under dev't hit a record low — only 33 remain since the Paris Agreement.
📉 New proposals fell below 2 GW in Q3 2025 — 85% below recent averages.
Explore the data ⤵️
globalenergymonitor.org/projects/glo...
October 23, 2025 at 5:12 AM
Last new coal plant proposals cancelled or shelved in Thailand, Kenya, Tajikistan & Uzbekistan, Cambodia deciding not to build any new coal, Morocco committing to a 2040 coal phase-out, proposals for new coal power outside China at record low - lots of progress happening outside front page news.
Big China electricity&industial data update🧵for September:
➡️Power generation from coal and gas dropped 5%, for a 1.2% fall in the first nine months of the year.
➡️Crude steel production fell by 5% and cement output by 9% in Sep, accelerating from 3% and 5% drops year-to-date.
➡️Power generation from coal and gas dropped 5%, for a 1.2% fall in the first nine months of the year.
➡️Crude steel production fell by 5% and cement output by 9% in Sep, accelerating from 3% and 5% drops year-to-date.
October 20, 2025 at 5:03 AM
Big China electricity&industial data update🧵for September:
➡️Power generation from coal and gas dropped 5%, for a 1.2% fall in the first nine months of the year.
➡️Crude steel production fell by 5% and cement output by 9% in Sep, accelerating from 3% and 5% drops year-to-date.
➡️Power generation from coal and gas dropped 5%, for a 1.2% fall in the first nine months of the year.
➡️Crude steel production fell by 5% and cement output by 9% in Sep, accelerating from 3% and 5% drops year-to-date.
A crystal ball for solar in China? The production minus exports of solar cells tends to predict new installations with a lag. While installations predictably slumped since May with new pricing policy, production has been strong for two months, suggesting pick up in installations.
October 15, 2025 at 11:18 AM
A crystal ball for solar in China? The production minus exports of solar cells tends to predict new installations with a lag. While installations predictably slumped since May with new pricing policy, production has been strong for two months, suggesting pick up in installations.
Since tweets like this continue to travel and I get similar responses every time I post something positive about China, it's maybe good to point out where China's progress on clean energy is and isn't world-leading and/or game-changing. 🧵
October 15, 2025 at 7:48 AM
Since tweets like this continue to travel and I get similar responses every time I post something positive about China, it's maybe good to point out where China's progress on clean energy is and isn't world-leading and/or game-changing. 🧵
China's coal imports fell 3% in September, and are down 11% year-to-date. Fossil gas imports fell 8% in September, -6% year-to-date. Net oil imports are up 2% year-to-date, 3% in September, and oil product exports are rising fast in October, indicating easing demand.
October 15, 2025 at 6:56 AM
China's coal imports fell 3% in September, and are down 11% year-to-date. Fossil gas imports fell 8% in September, -6% year-to-date. Net oil imports are up 2% year-to-date, 3% in September, and oil product exports are rising fast in October, indicating easing demand.
Reposted by Lauri Myllyvirta
If you want an explanation of why China is kicking the EU car industry to the curb, look no further than the criminally knuckle dragging EU car makers demanding new loopholes so they don't have to meet any meaningful low emission targets for cars in the EU.
www.ft.com/cIfontent/5a...
www.ft.com/cIfontent/5a...
Carmakers demand EU eases ‘rigid’ 2035 petrol car ban
Environmental groups say carmakers’ demands risk halving electric vehicle sales in Europe
www.ft.com
October 10, 2025 at 10:52 AM
If you want an explanation of why China is kicking the EU car industry to the curb, look no further than the criminally knuckle dragging EU car makers demanding new loopholes so they don't have to meet any meaningful low emission targets for cars in the EU.
www.ft.com/cIfontent/5a...
www.ft.com/cIfontent/5a...
Reposted by Lauri Myllyvirta
💡 With the US withdrawing, will BRICS fill the void in climate leadership?
Addressing the question at FIIA Climate Day event "Expanding BRICS in global climate governance" were Mihaela Papa, MIT Center for International Studies & @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social, @creacleanair.bsky.social.
Addressing the question at FIIA Climate Day event "Expanding BRICS in global climate governance" were Mihaela Papa, MIT Center for International Studies & @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social, @creacleanair.bsky.social.
October 7, 2025 at 2:40 PM
💡 With the US withdrawing, will BRICS fill the void in climate leadership?
Addressing the question at FIIA Climate Day event "Expanding BRICS in global climate governance" were Mihaela Papa, MIT Center for International Studies & @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social, @creacleanair.bsky.social.
Addressing the question at FIIA Climate Day event "Expanding BRICS in global climate governance" were Mihaela Papa, MIT Center for International Studies & @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social, @creacleanair.bsky.social.
China's clean energy technology exports continued strong growth in August, increasing 33% in dollar value year-on-year, with EVs +58%, solar +18%, wind +15% and batteries +23%. Exports grew to all regions except North America, evidencing strong demand.
October 6, 2025 at 10:42 AM
China's clean energy technology exports continued strong growth in August, increasing 33% in dollar value year-on-year, with EVs +58%, solar +18%, wind +15% and batteries +23%. Exports grew to all regions except North America, evidencing strong demand.
There are a lot of gas-fired power projects in the world that should have been solar+storage projects. This shortage should and could prompt a rethink.
www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
AI-Driven Demand for Gas Turbines Risks a New Energy Crunch
Orders for turbines to power natural gas plants are vastly outpacing supply, threatening the world’s ability to keep pace with rising electricity demand.
www.bloomberg.com
October 2, 2025 at 9:10 AM
There are a lot of gas-fired power projects in the world that should have been solar+storage projects. This shortage should and could prompt a rethink.
www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
Reposted by Lauri Myllyvirta
Thank you to everyone who joined our webinar on China’s new climate pledge🎙️
Thanks also to our panelists: Li Shuo @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social @rynacui.bsky.social @anikanpatel.carbonbrief.org @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org
If you missed the webinar, you can watch it here ⬇️
buff.ly/zUSLhUp
Thanks also to our panelists: Li Shuo @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social @rynacui.bsky.social @anikanpatel.carbonbrief.org @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org
If you missed the webinar, you can watch it here ⬇️
buff.ly/zUSLhUp
Webinar: Experts discuss what China's new climate pledge means for the world - Carbon Brief
Carbon Brief hosts webinar with China climate policy experts to discuss assessments of what the NDC means for China’s emissions pathway.
buff.ly
September 30, 2025 at 9:52 AM
Thank you to everyone who joined our webinar on China’s new climate pledge🎙️
Thanks also to our panelists: Li Shuo @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social @rynacui.bsky.social @anikanpatel.carbonbrief.org @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org
If you missed the webinar, you can watch it here ⬇️
buff.ly/zUSLhUp
Thanks also to our panelists: Li Shuo @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social @rynacui.bsky.social @anikanpatel.carbonbrief.org @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org
If you missed the webinar, you can watch it here ⬇️
buff.ly/zUSLhUp
China's wind and solar capacity additions have cooled down as expected after the rush in March-May, driven by the change in pricing policy. 8 GW of solar and 4 GW of wind was added to the grid in August, and 2025 seems comfortably on track to a new annual record.
bsky.app/profile/laur...
bsky.app/profile/laur...
September 30, 2025 at 7:39 AM
China's wind and solar capacity additions have cooled down as expected after the rush in March-May, driven by the change in pricing policy. 8 GW of solar and 4 GW of wind was added to the grid in August, and 2025 seems comfortably on track to a new annual record.
bsky.app/profile/laur...
bsky.app/profile/laur...
Now that China's new climate targets are out, here's a comparison to IPCC scenarios. The 2030 and 2035 targets are weak even compared to the median of 3-degree scenarios, which would entail devastating climate impacts, but the long-term 2060 target is in line with 2 degrees.
September 29, 2025 at 7:13 AM
Now that China's new climate targets are out, here's a comparison to IPCC scenarios. The 2030 and 2035 targets are weak even compared to the median of 3-degree scenarios, which would entail devastating climate impacts, but the long-term 2060 target is in line with 2 degrees.
The basic dilemma for China's leaders is: you have to cut either the clean energy industry or the coal industry down to size; both can't continue to grow like they have. These targets just show they still haven't made up their minds, balking at the economic fallout from either.
Xi Jinping announced China's new climate targets personally, a positive gesture, but the targets brought little clarity on China’s future emission pathway. Targeting a 7-10% emission reduction by 2035 from an undefined "peak level" undersells China's current clean energy boom.
September 24, 2025 at 9:31 PM
The basic dilemma for China's leaders is: you have to cut either the clean energy industry or the coal industry down to size; both can't continue to grow like they have. These targets just show they still haven't made up their minds, balking at the economic fallout from either.