Lauri Myllyvirta
@laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social
Co-founder and lead analyst, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air; senior fellow, Asia Society Policy Institute: tracking & accelerating progress from polluting energy to clean air, with research and evidence.
Read the full article with more detailed analysis and methodology here:
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chi...
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Analysis: China’s CO2 emissions have now been flat or falling for 18 months - Carbon Brief
China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions were unchanged from a year earlier in the third quarter of 2025, extending a flat or falling trend that started in March 2024.
www.carbonbrief.org
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
Read the full article with more detailed analysis and methodology here:
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chi...
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chi...
Beating the country’s clean energy targets is also necessary if policymakers want to maintain the tailwind that these sectors have provided to China’s economy recently — a slowdown in clean energy deployment would make the sector a drag on GDP that China can hardly afford.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
Beating the country’s clean energy targets is also necessary if policymakers want to maintain the tailwind that these sectors have provided to China’s economy recently — a slowdown in clean energy deployment would make the sector a drag on GDP that China can hardly afford.
China’s 2030 Paris pledges require a strong CO2 intensity target in the next 5-year plan and preventing any significant emission rebound, by keeping clean energy going and tackling the incentive for local gov’ts and state firms to increase emissions before the peaking deadline.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
China’s 2030 Paris pledges require a strong CO2 intensity target in the next 5-year plan and preventing any significant emission rebound, by keeping clean energy going and tackling the incentive for local gov’ts and state firms to increase emissions before the peaking deadline.
China’s policymakers are still leaving the door open to a rebound in emissions in the next years. However, to meet earlier 2030 pledges, emissions have to fall from 2024 to 2030, which also requires far exceeding the government’s clean energy targets, unless demand growth slows.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
China’s policymakers are still leaving the door open to a rebound in emissions in the next years. However, to meet earlier 2030 pledges, emissions have to fall from 2024 to 2030, which also requires far exceeding the government’s clean energy targets, unless demand growth slows.
What is already clear is that the 2025 carbon-intensity target will be missed, as it would have required absolute emission reductions of 4% or more this year, after slow progress during the earlier years of the five-year period.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
What is already clear is that the 2025 carbon-intensity target will be missed, as it would have required absolute emission reductions of 4% or more this year, after slow progress during the earlier years of the five-year period.
China’s emissions from fossil fuels are highly likely to increase this year, with rising coal and oil use for chemicals outweighing the cuts from the power, metals, building materials and transportation sectors. This will be balanced out by a fall in cement process emissions.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
China’s emissions from fossil fuels are highly likely to increase this year, with rising coal and oil use for chemicals outweighing the cuts from the power, metals, building materials and transportation sectors. This will be balanced out by a fall in cement process emissions.
Whether emissions increased or decreased marginally in the first three quarters of the year is too close to call, given the uncertainties involved, but a drop in full-year emissions became much more likely after September, which recorded a ~3% drop.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
Whether emissions increased or decreased marginally in the first three quarters of the year is too close to call, given the uncertainties involved, but a drop in full-year emissions became much more likely after September, which recorded a ~3% drop.
Overall, after the third quarter of 2025, it is clear that the plateau or slow decline of China’s CO2 emissions that started in early 2024 continues.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
Overall, after the third quarter of 2025, it is clear that the plateau or slow decline of China’s CO2 emissions that started in early 2024 continues.
A big rise in the chemical industry’s coal and oil use offset reductions elsewhere. Production of plastics and other chemicals has been blooming, driven by domestic demand growth, import substitution - which gained extra impetus from the trade war - and exports.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
A big rise in the chemical industry’s coal and oil use offset reductions elsewhere. Production of plastics and other chemicals has been blooming, driven by domestic demand growth, import substitution - which gained extra impetus from the trade war - and exports.
Emissions from transport fuels fell 5% in Jan-Sep, driven by electric vehicles, economic structural shifts and public transportation, a very impressive result. Total oil consumption increased slightly regardless as chemicals production surged.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
Emissions from transport fuels fell 5% in Jan-Sep, driven by electric vehicles, economic structural shifts and public transportation, a very impressive result. Total oil consumption increased slightly regardless as chemicals production surged.
The central government continues to target slower clean energy growth than achieved in recent years, and required to push emissions down, but the solar and wind industries are optimistic they can continue to exceed the conservative targets set by the government.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
The central government continues to target slower clean energy growth than achieved in recent years, and required to push emissions down, but the solar and wind industries are optimistic they can continue to exceed the conservative targets set by the government.
China's power sector emissions have been falling for the past 18 months, but it has taken extremely large additions of clean energy to achieve this. This year will highly likely see a record amount of clean power added, sufficient to drive emissions down well into next year.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
China's power sector emissions have been falling for the past 18 months, but it has taken extremely large additions of clean energy to achieve this. This year will highly likely see a record amount of clean power added, sufficient to drive emissions down well into next year.
Clean energy almost kept up with rapid demand growth in Q3, covering 90% of demand growth in Q3, with generation from solar growing by 46% and wind by 11% in Q3. Emissions were flat due to improved plant efficiency and increase in the share of gas at the expense of coal.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
Clean energy almost kept up with rapid demand growth in Q3, covering 90% of demand growth in Q3, with generation from solar growing by 46% and wind by 11% in Q3. Emissions were flat due to improved plant efficiency and increase in the share of gas at the expense of coal.
Summer saw faster electricity demand growth, as has been the norm due to increasing use of air conditioners and hotter summers. Climate change is at work: the average cooling load increased by a third in less than a decade.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
Summer saw faster electricity demand growth, as has been the norm due to increasing use of air conditioners and hotter summers. Climate change is at work: the average cooling load increased by a third in less than a decade.
While electricity demand has continued speedy growth, 4.6% in Jan-Sep, clean energy more than covered the increase, allowing power sector emissions to fall 2%. China completed 240GW solar and 61GW wind, putting it on track for another year of record clean energy additions.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
While electricity demand has continued speedy growth, 4.6% in Jan-Sep, clean energy more than covered the increase, allowing power sector emissions to fall 2%. China completed 240GW solar and 61GW wind, putting it on track for another year of record clean energy additions.
Emissions from power generation, construction materials, transportation and steel all fell in January-September, but two major obstacles to emission reductions in China stand out: the chemical industry and lack of progress on switching to electric steelmaking.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
Emissions from power generation, construction materials, transportation and steel all fell in January-September, but two major obstacles to emission reductions in China stand out: the chemical industry and lack of progress on switching to electric steelmaking.
China’s CO₂ emissions fell by 3% in September, after three months of increases. That brings emissions for the first nine months of 2025 very close to zero growth - with a slight rise or fall for the full year still in the balance.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
China’s CO₂ emissions fell by 3% in September, after three months of increases. That brings emissions for the first nine months of 2025 very close to zero growth - with a slight rise or fall for the full year still in the balance.
I haven't seen anyone compile a nationwide average, but big power firms are reporting their average selling price in the 0.35-0.4 CNY/kWh range so it's somewhere in that ballpark for coal. And that includes the marginal or non-existent impact of the ETS, such as it is.
November 10, 2025 at 5:15 AM
I haven't seen anyone compile a nationwide average, but big power firms are reporting their average selling price in the 0.35-0.4 CNY/kWh range so it's somewhere in that ballpark for coal. And that includes the marginal or non-existent impact of the ETS, such as it is.
Yes, the prices paid to new solar installations are 0.20-0.36 CNY/kWh = 2.8-5.1 dollar cents
November 9, 2025 at 3:59 PM
Yes, the prices paid to new solar installations are 0.20-0.36 CNY/kWh = 2.8-5.1 dollar cents
Link to China's submission to the UN climate secretariat:
unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2025-11/2035年中国国家自主贡献报告.pdf
November 9, 2025 at 1:01 PM
Link to China's submission to the UN climate secretariat:
unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
China's official submissions have not provided any definition of the term so there is probably scope for improving the numbers by changing e.g. the scope of which sectors and sources are included.
November 9, 2025 at 1:01 PM
China's official submissions have not provided any definition of the term so there is probably scope for improving the numbers by changing e.g. the scope of which sectors and sources are included.
On the omission of any progress report on carbon intensity, my guess is that the country's statisticians will be asked to work out if there are tweaks to the way carbon intensity is defined and measured before giving out further numbers.
November 9, 2025 at 1:01 PM
On the omission of any progress report on carbon intensity, my guess is that the country's statisticians will be asked to work out if there are tweaks to the way carbon intensity is defined and measured before giving out further numbers.
China always emphasizes that it can be counted on to meet its commitment and it's essential to hold China's policymakers to that standard.
November 9, 2025 at 1:01 PM
China always emphasizes that it can be counted on to meet its commitment and it's essential to hold China's policymakers to that standard.