Jintro Pauly
@jintropauly.bsky.social
Policy Advisor @munsecconf.bsky.social
Civil defence volunteer @asb-de.bsky.social
Posts in English, Dutch, and German
Posts on #Ukraine, #Russia, European #defence, #nuclear #security and, occasionally, trains.
Own views only, picture by MSC/Kuhlmann
Civil defence volunteer @asb-de.bsky.social
Posts in English, Dutch, and German
Posts on #Ukraine, #Russia, European #defence, #nuclear #security and, occasionally, trains.
Own views only, picture by MSC/Kuhlmann
Reposted by Jintro Pauly
The true story of this @munsecconf.bsky.social, as of last year’s edition, is that there are two increasingly competing versions of what remains of “the West”, what it takes to salvage the remains and how to rebuild it.
Even Marco Rubio’s “reassurance” makes that abundantly clear.
Even Marco Rubio’s “reassurance” makes that abundantly clear.
February 14, 2026 at 8:29 AM
The true story of this @munsecconf.bsky.social, as of last year’s edition, is that there are two increasingly competing versions of what remains of “the West”, what it takes to salvage the remains and how to rebuild it.
Even Marco Rubio’s “reassurance” makes that abundantly clear.
Even Marco Rubio’s “reassurance” makes that abundantly clear.
Reposted by Jintro Pauly
Rubio: „Make Western Civilization great again“ (and save it from „civilizational erasure“, caused by „mass migration“ and „climate religion“). Wang Yi: „Let‘s save the UN, global governance and multilateralism“. 🤡
February 14, 2026 at 8:49 AM
Rubio: „Make Western Civilization great again“ (and save it from „civilizational erasure“, caused by „mass migration“ and „climate religion“). Wang Yi: „Let‘s save the UN, global governance and multilateralism“. 🤡
Reposted by Jintro Pauly
goed!
Macron: Europa moet nieuwe veiligheidsstructuur op het continent zelf vormgeven
www.volkskrant.nl/cs-b3138a25/
www.volkskrant.nl/cs-b3138a25/
Macron: Europa moet nieuwe veiligheidsstructuur op het continent zelf vormgeven
Europa moet een sterke geopolitieke speler worden die de nieuwe veiligheidsstructuur op het continent zelf vormgeeft. Ook moet het ervoor waken dat een eventueel akkoord in Oekraïne niet de toekomst v...
www.volkskrant.nl
February 14, 2026 at 8:07 AM
goed!
Reposted by Jintro Pauly
This morning, the Foreign Ministers of Ukraine & Germany, Andrii Sybiha & @aussenminister.diplo.de Johann Wadephul, officially opened the Ukraine House.
At #MSC2026, it will be the working hub for the Ukrainian delegation and provide a dedicated space for discussions, side events & briefings.
At #MSC2026, it will be the working hub for the Ukrainian delegation and provide a dedicated space for discussions, side events & briefings.
February 13, 2026 at 12:15 PM
This morning, the Foreign Ministers of Ukraine & Germany, Andrii Sybiha & @aussenminister.diplo.de Johann Wadephul, officially opened the Ukraine House.
At #MSC2026, it will be the working hub for the Ukrainian delegation and provide a dedicated space for discussions, side events & briefings.
At #MSC2026, it will be the working hub for the Ukrainian delegation and provide a dedicated space for discussions, side events & briefings.
Reposted by Jintro Pauly
Die Angriffe auf die Energieversorgung der #Ukraine und der Ausfall von Strom, Wärme und Wasser trifft insbesondere ältere, pflegebedürftige und mobilitätseingeschränkte Menschen. Um hier schnell zu helfen, hat der ASB gemeinsam mit dem SSU ein "Evakuierungs- und Pflegeprojekt" gestartet.
1/4
1/4
February 13, 2026 at 1:19 PM
Die Angriffe auf die Energieversorgung der #Ukraine und der Ausfall von Strom, Wärme und Wasser trifft insbesondere ältere, pflegebedürftige und mobilitätseingeschränkte Menschen. Um hier schnell zu helfen, hat der ASB gemeinsam mit dem SSU ein "Evakuierungs- und Pflegeprojekt" gestartet.
1/4
1/4
Reposted by Jintro Pauly
📣 OUT NOW: Agenda MSC 2026
Agenda and Livestreams: Munich Security Conference 2026
Follow the MSC 2026 discussions live and explore the program!
securityconference.org
February 13, 2026 at 9:05 AM
📣 OUT NOW: Agenda MSC 2026
Reposted by Jintro Pauly
In ihrem Gastbeitrag in der @zeit.de warnen die Co-Vorsitzenden der European Nuclear Study Group @claudmajor.bsky.social, James D. Davis und MSC Director of Research & Policy @tobiasbunde.bsky.social vor einer nuklearen Abschreckungslücke in Europa.
Hier geht's zum Artikel ⬇️
Hier geht's zum Artikel ⬇️
Nukleare Abschreckung: Europa droht eine Abschreckungslücke
Ein neues nukleares Zeitalter hat eingesetzt, alte Gewissheiten europäischer Sicherheit gelten nicht mehr. Doch viele Politiker verhalten sich, als wäre nichts geschehen.
www.zeit.de
February 11, 2026 at 9:55 PM
In ihrem Gastbeitrag in der @zeit.de warnen die Co-Vorsitzenden der European Nuclear Study Group @claudmajor.bsky.social, James D. Davis und MSC Director of Research & Policy @tobiasbunde.bsky.social vor einer nuklearen Abschreckungslücke in Europa.
Hier geht's zum Artikel ⬇️
Hier geht's zum Artikel ⬇️
Reposted by Jintro Pauly
Skeleton racer Heraskevych's father, Mykhailo, sitting near the start house, broke down in tears when the IOC disqualified his son from Olympics minutes before his first run. The decision was made as the athlete refused to remove a helmet bearing portraits of Ukrainian athletes killed in war.
February 12, 2026 at 12:38 PM
Skeleton racer Heraskevych's father, Mykhailo, sitting near the start house, broke down in tears when the IOC disqualified his son from Olympics minutes before his first run. The decision was made as the athlete refused to remove a helmet bearing portraits of Ukrainian athletes killed in war.
Reposted by Jintro Pauly
The report of our European Nuclear Study Group, co-chaired by James W. Davis, Claudia Major and me, is online now: securityconference.org/en/publicati... Our co-authors: Janina Dill, Héloïse Fayet, Liviu Horovitz, Łukasz Kulesa, Andreas Lutsch, Michal Onderco, Jintro Pauly, Julian Wucherpfennig.
February 11, 2026 at 3:14 PM
The report of our European Nuclear Study Group, co-chaired by James W. Davis, Claudia Major and me, is online now: securityconference.org/en/publicati... Our co-authors: Janina Dill, Héloïse Fayet, Liviu Horovitz, Łukasz Kulesa, Andreas Lutsch, Michal Onderco, Jintro Pauly, Julian Wucherpfennig.
Many thanks to my co-authors:
@tobiasbunde.bsky.social
James W. Davis
@claudmajor.bsky.social
@janinadill.bsky.social
@hfayet.bsky.social
@liviuhorovitz.bsky.social
Łukasz Kulesa
Andreas Lutsch
@profonderco.bsky.social
@wucherpfennig.bsky.social
And to my amazing @munsecconf.bsky.social colleagues!
@tobiasbunde.bsky.social
James W. Davis
@claudmajor.bsky.social
@janinadill.bsky.social
@hfayet.bsky.social
@liviuhorovitz.bsky.social
Łukasz Kulesa
Andreas Lutsch
@profonderco.bsky.social
@wucherpfennig.bsky.social
And to my amazing @munsecconf.bsky.social colleagues!
February 11, 2026 at 10:10 PM
Many thanks to my co-authors:
@tobiasbunde.bsky.social
James W. Davis
@claudmajor.bsky.social
@janinadill.bsky.social
@hfayet.bsky.social
@liviuhorovitz.bsky.social
Łukasz Kulesa
Andreas Lutsch
@profonderco.bsky.social
@wucherpfennig.bsky.social
And to my amazing @munsecconf.bsky.social colleagues!
@tobiasbunde.bsky.social
James W. Davis
@claudmajor.bsky.social
@janinadill.bsky.social
@hfayet.bsky.social
@liviuhorovitz.bsky.social
Łukasz Kulesa
Andreas Lutsch
@profonderco.bsky.social
@wucherpfennig.bsky.social
And to my amazing @munsecconf.bsky.social colleagues!
Grappling with these key questions of European nuclear security and writing this report together with such a distinguished group of experts was truly a privilege.
I hope our report will inspire frank and well-informed debates on these questions at #MSC2026 and beyond.
I hope our report will inspire frank and well-informed debates on these questions at #MSC2026 and beyond.
February 11, 2026 at 10:10 PM
Grappling with these key questions of European nuclear security and writing this report together with such a distinguished group of experts was truly a privilege.
I hope our report will inspire frank and well-informed debates on these questions at #MSC2026 and beyond.
I hope our report will inspire frank and well-informed debates on these questions at #MSC2026 and beyond.
The sobering conclusion in short: there are no good options.
And precisely therefore, it is essential Europeans start thinking now about which sub-optimal option(s) they want to invest in. Ignoring difficult questions now will - as ever so often - only raise the costs of action in the future.
And precisely therefore, it is essential Europeans start thinking now about which sub-optimal option(s) they want to invest in. Ignoring difficult questions now will - as ever so often - only raise the costs of action in the future.
February 11, 2026 at 10:10 PM
The sobering conclusion in short: there are no good options.
And precisely therefore, it is essential Europeans start thinking now about which sub-optimal option(s) they want to invest in. Ignoring difficult questions now will - as ever so often - only raise the costs of action in the future.
And precisely therefore, it is essential Europeans start thinking now about which sub-optimal option(s) they want to invest in. Ignoring difficult questions now will - as ever so often - only raise the costs of action in the future.
The report considers 5 options and their (dis)advantages:
A: Continued reliance on 🇺🇸 extended nuclear deterrence
B: Increased reliance on 🇫🇷 and/or 🇬🇧 nuclear deterrence
C: Building a Eurodeterrent 🇪🇺
D: Nuclear proliferation ☢️
E: Compensating a lack of nuclear deterrence with conventional means ⚔️
A: Continued reliance on 🇺🇸 extended nuclear deterrence
B: Increased reliance on 🇫🇷 and/or 🇬🇧 nuclear deterrence
C: Building a Eurodeterrent 🇪🇺
D: Nuclear proliferation ☢️
E: Compensating a lack of nuclear deterrence with conventional means ⚔️
February 11, 2026 at 10:10 PM
The report considers 5 options and their (dis)advantages:
A: Continued reliance on 🇺🇸 extended nuclear deterrence
B: Increased reliance on 🇫🇷 and/or 🇬🇧 nuclear deterrence
C: Building a Eurodeterrent 🇪🇺
D: Nuclear proliferation ☢️
E: Compensating a lack of nuclear deterrence with conventional means ⚔️
A: Continued reliance on 🇺🇸 extended nuclear deterrence
B: Increased reliance on 🇫🇷 and/or 🇬🇧 nuclear deterrence
C: Building a Eurodeterrent 🇪🇺
D: Nuclear proliferation ☢️
E: Compensating a lack of nuclear deterrence with conventional means ⚔️
OUT NOW: Mind the Deterrence Gap: Assessing Europe's Nuclear Options.
A new report by the European Nuclear Study Group assessing #Europe 's options to maintain a credible deterrence posture in the face of continued aggression from #Russia and an increasingly strained transatlantic relationship.
👇
A new report by the European Nuclear Study Group assessing #Europe 's options to maintain a credible deterrence posture in the face of continued aggression from #Russia and an increasingly strained transatlantic relationship.
👇
Just in time for #MSC2026, our Director of Research & Policy @tobiasbunde.bsky.social, together with the European Nuclear Study Group, has published a new report calling for urgent action to maintain nuclear deterrence in Europe.
Find the full text here 👇
securityconference.org/en/publicati...
Find the full text here 👇
securityconference.org/en/publicati...
Mind the Deterrence Gap - Munich Security Conference
The Munich Security Conference (MSC) is the world's leading forum for debating the most pressing challenges to international security.
securityconference.org
February 11, 2026 at 10:10 PM
"De organisatie achter de veiligheidsconferentie is duidelijk: Europa moet zich militair en politiek zelfstandiger opstellen. Voorzichtige verklaringen, voorspelbare conferenties en klassieke diplomatie volstaan niet langer."
#MSC2026 #MSCReport
#MSC2026 #MSCReport
Europa moet assertiever optreden en militair minder afhankelijk worden van de Verenigde Staten. Dat stelt een nieuw rapport dat werd opgesteld voor de jaarlijkse Veiligheidsconferentie van München (MSC), die dit weekend van start gaat. Volgens de auteurs drijft de regering-Trump steeds verder weg...
‘Groeiende bezorgdheid, en zelfs afschuw’: nieuw rapport ziet VS afglijden van democratische NAVO-waarden
www.demorgen.be
February 10, 2026 at 3:22 PM
"De organisatie achter de veiligheidsconferentie is duidelijk: Europa moet zich militair en politiek zelfstandiger opstellen. Voorzichtige verklaringen, voorspelbare conferenties en klassieke diplomatie volstaan niet langer."
#MSC2026 #MSCReport
#MSC2026 #MSCReport
Reposted by Jintro Pauly
🇺🇦 At #MSC2026, we'll present the Ewald von Kleist Award to the brave Ukrainian people—honoring their resolve to defend their and Europe's freedom and commemorating the many who have lost their lives or been injured.
➡️ securityconference.org/en/kleist-aw...
➡️ securityconference.org/en/kleist-aw...
February 9, 2026 at 4:23 PM
🇺🇦 At #MSC2026, we'll present the Ewald von Kleist Award to the brave Ukrainian people—honoring their resolve to defend their and Europe's freedom and commemorating the many who have lost their lives or been injured.
➡️ securityconference.org/en/kleist-aw...
➡️ securityconference.org/en/kleist-aw...
PS
If the #MSCReport is not enough food for you, this is not the last #MSC2026 publication you'll see appear this week. More to come soon, including a report co-authored by yours truly.
If the #MSCReport is not enough food for you, this is not the last #MSC2026 publication you'll see appear this week. More to come soon, including a report co-authored by yours truly.
February 9, 2026 at 5:58 PM
PS
If the #MSCReport is not enough food for you, this is not the last #MSC2026 publication you'll see appear this week. More to come soon, including a report co-authored by yours truly.
If the #MSCReport is not enough food for you, this is not the last #MSC2026 publication you'll see appear this week. More to come soon, including a report co-authored by yours truly.
Death by a Thousand Cuts?
And finally, Isabell Kump's and Amadée Mudie-Mantz's chapter on development and humanitarian assistance, which, as the title suggests, is under immense pressure due to significant budget cuts.
securityconference.org/en/publicati...
And finally, Isabell Kump's and Amadée Mudie-Mantz's chapter on development and humanitarian assistance, which, as the title suggests, is under immense pressure due to significant budget cuts.
securityconference.org/en/publicati...
Development and Humanitarian Assistance: Death by a Thousand Cuts?
Chapter 5 of the Munich Security Report 2026: How narrow national interests, budget cuts, and rising geopolitical competition are reshaping global development and humanitarian aid.
securityconference.org
February 9, 2026 at 5:58 PM
Death by a Thousand Cuts?
And finally, Isabell Kump's and Amadée Mudie-Mantz's chapter on development and humanitarian assistance, which, as the title suggests, is under immense pressure due to significant budget cuts.
securityconference.org/en/publicati...
And finally, Isabell Kump's and Amadée Mudie-Mantz's chapter on development and humanitarian assistance, which, as the title suggests, is under immense pressure due to significant budget cuts.
securityconference.org/en/publicati...
Terms of Trade?
A chapter on the unprecedented challenges to the international trade order by Julia Hammelehle and Nora Kürzdörfer:
securityconference.org/en/publicati...
A chapter on the unprecedented challenges to the international trade order by Julia Hammelehle and Nora Kürzdörfer:
securityconference.org/en/publicati...
Global Economy: Terms of Trade
Chapter 4 of the Munich Security Report: How major powers challenge the global trade order.
securityconference.org
February 9, 2026 at 5:58 PM
Terms of Trade?
A chapter on the unprecedented challenges to the international trade order by Julia Hammelehle and Nora Kürzdörfer:
securityconference.org/en/publicati...
A chapter on the unprecedented challenges to the international trade order by Julia Hammelehle and Nora Kürzdörfer:
securityconference.org/en/publicati...
Pact or Fiction?
A chapter by @randolfcarr.bsky.social on the evolving security landscape in the Indo-Pacific in the context of increasing 🇺🇸-🇨🇳 rivalry:
securityconference.org/en/publicati...
A chapter by @randolfcarr.bsky.social on the evolving security landscape in the Indo-Pacific in the context of increasing 🇺🇸-🇨🇳 rivalry:
securityconference.org/en/publicati...
Indo-Pacific: Pact or Fiction?
Chapter 3 of the Munich Security Report 2026: How China’s quest for power is reshaping the Indo‑Pacific and how the United States and regional partners are responding.
securityconference.org
February 9, 2026 at 5:58 PM
Pact or Fiction?
A chapter by @randolfcarr.bsky.social on the evolving security landscape in the Indo-Pacific in the context of increasing 🇺🇸-🇨🇳 rivalry:
securityconference.org/en/publicati...
A chapter by @randolfcarr.bsky.social on the evolving security landscape in the Indo-Pacific in the context of increasing 🇺🇸-🇨🇳 rivalry:
securityconference.org/en/publicati...
Detachment Issues:
A chapter on European security in times of Russian aggression and transatlantic uncertainties by @nicolekoenig.bsky.social:
securityconference.org/en/publicati...
A chapter on European security in times of Russian aggression and transatlantic uncertainties by @nicolekoenig.bsky.social:
securityconference.org/en/publicati...
Europe: Detachment Issues
Chapter 2 of the Munich Security Report 2026: How Russia’s aggression and uncertainty in US policy are affecting Europe’s security.
securityconference.org
February 9, 2026 at 5:58 PM
Detachment Issues:
A chapter on European security in times of Russian aggression and transatlantic uncertainties by @nicolekoenig.bsky.social:
securityconference.org/en/publicati...
A chapter on European security in times of Russian aggression and transatlantic uncertainties by @nicolekoenig.bsky.social:
securityconference.org/en/publicati...
Under Destruction:
The introduction by @tobiasbunde.bsky.social and Sophie Eisentraut on the state of the international order after a tumultuous year in world politics:
securityconference.org/en/publicati...
The introduction by @tobiasbunde.bsky.social and Sophie Eisentraut on the state of the international order after a tumultuous year in world politics:
securityconference.org/en/publicati...
Introduction: Under Destruction
The introduction of the Munich Security Report 2026 ‘Under Destruction’ explores how wrecking-ball politics is shaping the international order.
securityconference.org
February 9, 2026 at 5:58 PM
Under Destruction:
The introduction by @tobiasbunde.bsky.social and Sophie Eisentraut on the state of the international order after a tumultuous year in world politics:
securityconference.org/en/publicati...
The introduction by @tobiasbunde.bsky.social and Sophie Eisentraut on the state of the international order after a tumultuous year in world politics:
securityconference.org/en/publicati...
The week of #MSC2026 has officially started with the release of the #MSCreport 2026 titled "Under Destruction."
The report includes several contributions by my stellar colleagues:
👇
The report includes several contributions by my stellar colleagues:
👇
⚠️ We’ve entered an era of wrecking-ball politics. Our brand-new #MSCreport 2026 explores what this means for global security and international cooperation. (1/7)
February 9, 2026 at 5:58 PM
The week of #MSC2026 has officially started with the release of the #MSCreport 2026 titled "Under Destruction."
The report includes several contributions by my stellar colleagues:
👇
The report includes several contributions by my stellar colleagues:
👇
Reposted by Jintro Pauly
The #MSCreport 2026 is out now! 🐘
The world has entered a period of wrecking-ball politics. More than 80 years after construction began, the US-led post-1945 international order is now
⚠️ Under Destruction.
Read our brand-new Munich Security Report: securityconference.org/en/publicati...
The world has entered a period of wrecking-ball politics. More than 80 years after construction began, the US-led post-1945 international order is now
⚠️ Under Destruction.
Read our brand-new Munich Security Report: securityconference.org/en/publicati...
February 9, 2026 at 9:32 AM
The #MSCreport 2026 is out now! 🐘
The world has entered a period of wrecking-ball politics. More than 80 years after construction began, the US-led post-1945 international order is now
⚠️ Under Destruction.
Read our brand-new Munich Security Report: securityconference.org/en/publicati...
The world has entered a period of wrecking-ball politics. More than 80 years after construction began, the US-led post-1945 international order is now
⚠️ Under Destruction.
Read our brand-new Munich Security Report: securityconference.org/en/publicati...
Reposted by Jintro Pauly
Eigentlich wirkt sie gar nicht so gut. Selbst nur eine knappe Mehrheit der Anhänger der Pro-Putin-Partei glauben die Propaganda. Und 80% der Deutschen sind nicht überzeugt.
February 6, 2026 at 11:58 AM
Eigentlich wirkt sie gar nicht so gut. Selbst nur eine knappe Mehrheit der Anhänger der Pro-Putin-Partei glauben die Propaganda. Und 80% der Deutschen sind nicht überzeugt.