Sander Tordoir
@sandertordoir.bsky.social
Chief economist @ Centre for European Reform. Eurozone macroeconomic policies | Role of 🇩🇪 🇳🇱 in EU. Formerly @ECB, @IMF, @Worldbank.
From the great new NBER paper by Bloom et al on the cost of Brexit.
It ain't pretty - they estimate UK GDP is down between 6-8%. Consistent with the doppelgang model of @johnspringford.bsky.social for CER.
A lot of 'free' GDP available availabe for Labour if it had the courage to reset properly.
It ain't pretty - they estimate UK GDP is down between 6-8%. Consistent with the doppelgang model of @johnspringford.bsky.social for CER.
A lot of 'free' GDP available availabe for Labour if it had the courage to reset properly.
November 17, 2025 at 9:57 PM
From the great new NBER paper by Bloom et al on the cost of Brexit.
It ain't pretty - they estimate UK GDP is down between 6-8%. Consistent with the doppelgang model of @johnspringford.bsky.social for CER.
A lot of 'free' GDP available availabe for Labour if it had the courage to reset properly.
It ain't pretty - they estimate UK GDP is down between 6-8%. Consistent with the doppelgang model of @johnspringford.bsky.social for CER.
A lot of 'free' GDP available availabe for Labour if it had the courage to reset properly.
More evidence of European luxury facing increasing competition from home-grown Chinese brands.
Bloomberg: "Chinese consumers are losing interest in heritage European and US luxury brands, instead favoring homegrown premium labels for their distinctive Eastern aesthetic"
Bloomberg: "Chinese consumers are losing interest in heritage European and US luxury brands, instead favoring homegrown premium labels for their distinctive Eastern aesthetic"
November 17, 2025 at 9:55 AM
More evidence of European luxury facing increasing competition from home-grown Chinese brands.
Bloomberg: "Chinese consumers are losing interest in heritage European and US luxury brands, instead favoring homegrown premium labels for their distinctive Eastern aesthetic"
Bloomberg: "Chinese consumers are losing interest in heritage European and US luxury brands, instead favoring homegrown premium labels for their distinctive Eastern aesthetic"
Excellent AER paper from Luca et al. demonstrating how China’s exports crowd out production and curb innovation globally.
It reinforces the argument I made in Politico last year about the drag China’s distortions place on EU productivity and innovation.
1/
It reinforces the argument I made in Politico last year about the drag China’s distortions place on EU productivity and innovation.
1/
November 17, 2025 at 9:42 AM
Excellent AER paper from Luca et al. demonstrating how China’s exports crowd out production and curb innovation globally.
It reinforces the argument I made in Politico last year about the drag China’s distortions place on EU productivity and innovation.
1/
It reinforces the argument I made in Politico last year about the drag China’s distortions place on EU productivity and innovation.
1/
Some reflections from my side in the FT.
There’s widespread concern about the low quality of Germany’s spending.
I’d add that the European single market is indispensable to rekindle the German economy.
1/
There’s widespread concern about the low quality of Germany’s spending.
I’d add that the European single market is indispensable to rekindle the German economy.
1/
November 15, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Some reflections from my side in the FT.
There’s widespread concern about the low quality of Germany’s spending.
I’d add that the European single market is indispensable to rekindle the German economy.
1/
There’s widespread concern about the low quality of Germany’s spending.
I’d add that the European single market is indispensable to rekindle the German economy.
1/
Gold and Rolex helped too
November 15, 2025 at 11:30 AM
Gold and Rolex helped too
One indicator of all this: Germany's car exports to China are headed to very low levels.
November 13, 2025 at 11:23 AM
One indicator of all this: Germany's car exports to China are headed to very low levels.
So I don’t think Dalia’s or my proposals are particularly radical -- Germany needs to start making moves to level the playing field with China or accept widespread industrial damage.
Whether or not you like cars or manufacturing, it matters greatly for productivity.
11/
Whether or not you like cars or manufacturing, it matters greatly for productivity.
11/
November 13, 2025 at 11:21 AM
So I don’t think Dalia’s or my proposals are particularly radical -- Germany needs to start making moves to level the playing field with China or accept widespread industrial damage.
Whether or not you like cars or manufacturing, it matters greatly for productivity.
11/
Whether or not you like cars or manufacturing, it matters greatly for productivity.
11/
A few hundred more tanks help, but Germany has already lost 50% of its net car exports - a million vehicles - and China’s global car exports continue to surge.
I hope France’s G7 presidency helps convince China to lift internal demand, but hope is not a plan.
10/
I hope France’s G7 presidency helps convince China to lift internal demand, but hope is not a plan.
10/
November 13, 2025 at 11:21 AM
A few hundred more tanks help, but Germany has already lost 50% of its net car exports - a million vehicles - and China’s global car exports continue to surge.
I hope France’s G7 presidency helps convince China to lift internal demand, but hope is not a plan.
10/
I hope France’s G7 presidency helps convince China to lift internal demand, but hope is not a plan.
10/
But they also shouldn't overlook the key role of an undervalued yuan exchange rate nor the mismatch between ever-expanding Chinese supply and anaemic domestic demand (see chart from the strong ECB blog)
EU diplomats will have to pick up the baton on currency issues and macroeconomic imbalances.
4/
EU diplomats will have to pick up the baton on currency issues and macroeconomic imbalances.
4/
November 13, 2025 at 11:21 AM
But they also shouldn't overlook the key role of an undervalued yuan exchange rate nor the mismatch between ever-expanding Chinese supply and anaemic domestic demand (see chart from the strong ECB blog)
EU diplomats will have to pick up the baton on currency issues and macroeconomic imbalances.
4/
EU diplomats will have to pick up the baton on currency issues and macroeconomic imbalances.
4/
The changing role of China from customer to fierce competitor is a key reason why German industrial production has slumped back to 2005 (ouch) levels.
Good to see the FT give China the attention it deserves in Germany’s decline -- that wasn’t always the case in the debate.
2/
Good to see the FT give China the attention it deserves in Germany’s decline -- that wasn’t always the case in the debate.
2/
November 13, 2025 at 11:21 AM
The changing role of China from customer to fierce competitor is a key reason why German industrial production has slumped back to 2005 (ouch) levels.
Good to see the FT give China the attention it deserves in Germany’s decline -- that wasn’t always the case in the debate.
2/
Good to see the FT give China the attention it deserves in Germany’s decline -- that wasn’t always the case in the debate.
2/
The exportweltmeister has been dethroned. Can anything halt the decline of German industry?
Rarmament won’t turn things around. As the FT's Storbeck notes, Germany employs fewer people building tanks than making toys.
Macroeconomic and civilian industrial policies will be vital. Some thoughts
1/
Rarmament won’t turn things around. As the FT's Storbeck notes, Germany employs fewer people building tanks than making toys.
Macroeconomic and civilian industrial policies will be vital. Some thoughts
1/
November 13, 2025 at 11:21 AM
The exportweltmeister has been dethroned. Can anything halt the decline of German industry?
Rarmament won’t turn things around. As the FT's Storbeck notes, Germany employs fewer people building tanks than making toys.
Macroeconomic and civilian industrial policies will be vital. Some thoughts
1/
Rarmament won’t turn things around. As the FT's Storbeck notes, Germany employs fewer people building tanks than making toys.
Macroeconomic and civilian industrial policies will be vital. Some thoughts
1/
Not entirely sure Dalia or my proposals are particularly radical anymore - Germany needs to start making moves to level the playing field with China or accept widespread industrial damage from Chinas subsidies, undervalued exchange rate, closed off home market, and overcapacities.
3/
3/
November 12, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Not entirely sure Dalia or my proposals are particularly radical anymore - Germany needs to start making moves to level the playing field with China or accept widespread industrial damage from Chinas subsidies, undervalued exchange rate, closed off home market, and overcapacities.
3/
3/
The changing role of China is essential in Germanys industrial decline and a key reason why industrial production has slumped back to 2005 levels.
Good to see it receive the prominence it deserves - it wasn’t always so in the debate.
That deficit will blow our far wider still.
2/
Good to see it receive the prominence it deserves - it wasn’t always so in the debate.
That deficit will blow our far wider still.
2/
November 12, 2025 at 9:29 PM
The changing role of China is essential in Germanys industrial decline and a key reason why industrial production has slumped back to 2005 levels.
Good to see it receive the prominence it deserves - it wasn’t always so in the debate.
That deficit will blow our far wider still.
2/
Good to see it receive the prominence it deserves - it wasn’t always so in the debate.
That deficit will blow our far wider still.
2/
Weer een mooie podcast van PG Kroeger en Jaap Jansen.
Het economische verhaal van Argentinie is een tragedie en Nederland lijkt er geenzins op.
Het economische verhaal van Argentinie is een tragedie en Nederland lijkt er geenzins op.
November 11, 2025 at 10:08 AM
Weer een mooie podcast van PG Kroeger en Jaap Jansen.
Het economische verhaal van Argentinie is een tragedie en Nederland lijkt er geenzins op.
Het economische verhaal van Argentinie is een tragedie en Nederland lijkt er geenzins op.
"...as the drag from low levels of domestic household consumption is no longer masked by a turbo-charged property sector."
Still, the ECB is 100% right to say diversion from US tariffs isn't the core issue - China's explosive exports predate the second Trump administration (see nice chart).
3/
Still, the ECB is 100% right to say diversion from US tariffs isn't the core issue - China's explosive exports predate the second Trump administration (see nice chart).
3/
November 11, 2025 at 9:49 AM
"...as the drag from low levels of domestic household consumption is no longer masked by a turbo-charged property sector."
Still, the ECB is 100% right to say diversion from US tariffs isn't the core issue - China's explosive exports predate the second Trump administration (see nice chart).
3/
Still, the ECB is 100% right to say diversion from US tariffs isn't the core issue - China's explosive exports predate the second Trump administration (see nice chart).
3/
Erik Nielsen with another good example of why bureaucracy isn’t really Germanys main woe.
The US wastes 3x the resources on healthcare admin 👀
The US wastes 3x the resources on healthcare admin 👀
November 9, 2025 at 9:14 PM
Erik Nielsen with another good example of why bureaucracy isn’t really Germanys main woe.
The US wastes 3x the resources on healthcare admin 👀
The US wastes 3x the resources on healthcare admin 👀
One of the most self-destructive things Germany could do is to reverse the green transition now.
Renewables expansion has been on a tear but Germany has seen reversals before, unfortunately. And the country still does not have oil or gas and isn’t getting any anytime soon (ever).
Renewables expansion has been on a tear but Germany has seen reversals before, unfortunately. And the country still does not have oil or gas and isn’t getting any anytime soon (ever).
November 9, 2025 at 3:28 PM
One of the most self-destructive things Germany could do is to reverse the green transition now.
Renewables expansion has been on a tear but Germany has seen reversals before, unfortunately. And the country still does not have oil or gas and isn’t getting any anytime soon (ever).
Renewables expansion has been on a tear but Germany has seen reversals before, unfortunately. And the country still does not have oil or gas and isn’t getting any anytime soon (ever).
A fun chart. AI as a general purpose tech. Is this time different or not? And if so will it lead to walhalla or human extinction? Take your pick.
November 7, 2025 at 12:05 PM
A fun chart. AI as a general purpose tech. Is this time different or not? And if so will it lead to walhalla or human extinction? Take your pick.
Fascinating.
The bluffers guide to the railway bubble vs the actual historians.
And why Britain has such a lousy railway system.
The bluffers guide to the railway bubble vs the actual historians.
And why Britain has such a lousy railway system.
November 6, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Fascinating.
The bluffers guide to the railway bubble vs the actual historians.
And why Britain has such a lousy railway system.
The bluffers guide to the railway bubble vs the actual historians.
And why Britain has such a lousy railway system.
Opvallende oproep.
Argentinië is herhaaldelijk failliet gegaan, kende hyperinflatie en had een niet-onafhankelijke centrale bank.
Ik zie de vergelijking met Nederland niet.
1/
Argentinië is herhaaldelijk failliet gegaan, kende hyperinflatie en had een niet-onafhankelijke centrale bank.
Ik zie de vergelijking met Nederland niet.
1/
November 6, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Opvallende oproep.
Argentinië is herhaaldelijk failliet gegaan, kende hyperinflatie en had een niet-onafhankelijke centrale bank.
Ik zie de vergelijking met Nederland niet.
1/
Argentinië is herhaaldelijk failliet gegaan, kende hyperinflatie en had een niet-onafhankelijke centrale bank.
Ik zie de vergelijking met Nederland niet.
1/
Woah what a cover from Handelsblatt.
The China Trap.
"Raw materials, semiconductors, export markets — out of convenience and short-sightedness, Germany made itself dependent on Beijing. Now the bill is coming due. But there are ways out."
That note of optimism at the end is exactly right.
The China Trap.
"Raw materials, semiconductors, export markets — out of convenience and short-sightedness, Germany made itself dependent on Beijing. Now the bill is coming due. But there are ways out."
That note of optimism at the end is exactly right.
October 31, 2025 at 9:09 AM
Woah what a cover from Handelsblatt.
The China Trap.
"Raw materials, semiconductors, export markets — out of convenience and short-sightedness, Germany made itself dependent on Beijing. Now the bill is coming due. But there are ways out."
That note of optimism at the end is exactly right.
The China Trap.
"Raw materials, semiconductors, export markets — out of convenience and short-sightedness, Germany made itself dependent on Beijing. Now the bill is coming due. But there are ways out."
That note of optimism at the end is exactly right.
The debt brake reform has opened up space to invest in infrastructure, defence and education, but there’s real concern about the quality of Berlin’s hithertho actual spending plans.
Spending money randomly ain't as good.
And reforms are indeed important to flank such a large spending package.
3/
Spending money randomly ain't as good.
And reforms are indeed important to flank such a large spending package.
3/
October 30, 2025 at 4:01 PM
The debt brake reform has opened up space to invest in infrastructure, defence and education, but there’s real concern about the quality of Berlin’s hithertho actual spending plans.
Spending money randomly ain't as good.
And reforms are indeed important to flank such a large spending package.
3/
Spending money randomly ain't as good.
And reforms are indeed important to flank such a large spending package.
3/
My take on the Dutch election result - kicker quote in a good piece by Barbara Moens on the road ahead.
It should be obvious after the events of the last few weeks that D66 managing to form a new, stable Dutch government is important for Europe's economy and strategic autonomy.
It should be obvious after the events of the last few weeks that D66 managing to form a new, stable Dutch government is important for Europe's economy and strategic autonomy.
October 30, 2025 at 2:12 PM
My take on the Dutch election result - kicker quote in a good piece by Barbara Moens on the road ahead.
It should be obvious after the events of the last few weeks that D66 managing to form a new, stable Dutch government is important for Europe's economy and strategic autonomy.
It should be obvious after the events of the last few weeks that D66 managing to form a new, stable Dutch government is important for Europe's economy and strategic autonomy.
That helps France and Italy.
But it’s also not in the others‘ interest to let China‘s heavily subsidised cars tap into Germanys EU demand instead.
That clearly also holds for the smaller countries in Eastern Europe, the Netherlands and Austria supplying German car-making
5/5
But it’s also not in the others‘ interest to let China‘s heavily subsidised cars tap into Germanys EU demand instead.
That clearly also holds for the smaller countries in Eastern Europe, the Netherlands and Austria supplying German car-making
5/5
October 24, 2025 at 2:10 AM
That helps France and Italy.
But it’s also not in the others‘ interest to let China‘s heavily subsidised cars tap into Germanys EU demand instead.
That clearly also holds for the smaller countries in Eastern Europe, the Netherlands and Austria supplying German car-making
5/5
But it’s also not in the others‘ interest to let China‘s heavily subsidised cars tap into Germanys EU demand instead.
That clearly also holds for the smaller countries in Eastern Europe, the Netherlands and Austria supplying German car-making
5/5
A chart Berlin‘s economic policy-makers should think hard about.
Doing a buy-German clause in new EV subsidies would be an own goal.
The German market is simply too small, and lacks sufficient premium demand.
1/
Doing a buy-German clause in new EV subsidies would be an own goal.
The German market is simply too small, and lacks sufficient premium demand.
1/
October 24, 2025 at 2:10 AM
A chart Berlin‘s economic policy-makers should think hard about.
Doing a buy-German clause in new EV subsidies would be an own goal.
The German market is simply too small, and lacks sufficient premium demand.
1/
Doing a buy-German clause in new EV subsidies would be an own goal.
The German market is simply too small, and lacks sufficient premium demand.
1/