alina
@ramshackle78.bsky.social
EM doc. Politics nerd 🇷🇴🇬🇧🇫🇷
European at core
Into military stuff nowadays, out of necessity
European at core
Into military stuff nowadays, out of necessity
Pinned
And we haven't seen anything yet on that defence and defence-adjacent demand
February 11, 2026 at 9:45 AM
And we haven't seen anything yet on that defence and defence-adjacent demand
Reposted by alina
Above all, EU leaders have forgotten Mario’s macro argument.
They should look at the latest German industrial production data. For the first time since 2021, output has risen for three consecutive months.
The driver? Exploding defence orders.
It’s demand, not bureaucracy.
10/10
They should look at the latest German industrial production data. For the first time since 2021, output has risen for three consecutive months.
The driver? Exploding defence orders.
It’s demand, not bureaucracy.
10/10
February 11, 2026 at 9:35 AM
Above all, EU leaders have forgotten Mario’s macro argument.
They should look at the latest German industrial production data. For the first time since 2021, output has risen for three consecutive months.
The driver? Exploding defence orders.
It’s demand, not bureaucracy.
10/10
They should look at the latest German industrial production data. For the first time since 2021, output has risen for three consecutive months.
The driver? Exploding defence orders.
It’s demand, not bureaucracy.
10/10
We'll see if any of this comes to pass but when Macron referenced Ariane 6 in the interview with Le Monde this week he was absolutely right: the drama between France and Germany over that was exactly the same as the one now over FCAS
February 11, 2026 at 9:38 AM
We'll see if any of this comes to pass but when Macron referenced Ariane 6 in the interview with Le Monde this week he was absolutely right: the drama between France and Germany over that was exactly the same as the one now over FCAS
In return Merz gives you
* a written political commitment to proceed and fund the next phase of FCAS
* a deadline for settling workshare disputes (say by June)
* FCAS and MGCS stand/fall together
As a sweetener you can add a process to streamline export approvals for FCAS
* a written political commitment to proceed and fund the next phase of FCAS
* a deadline for settling workshare disputes (say by June)
* FCAS and MGCS stand/fall together
As a sweetener you can add a process to streamline export approvals for FCAS
February 11, 2026 at 9:38 AM
In return Merz gives you
* a written political commitment to proceed and fund the next phase of FCAS
* a deadline for settling workshare disputes (say by June)
* FCAS and MGCS stand/fall together
As a sweetener you can add a process to streamline export approvals for FCAS
* a written political commitment to proceed and fund the next phase of FCAS
* a deadline for settling workshare disputes (say by June)
* FCAS and MGCS stand/fall together
As a sweetener you can add a process to streamline export approvals for FCAS
You then propose a govt level arbitration mechanism to settle industrial disputes on FCAS quickly, you emphasise how German industry has a long term and visible role on all FCAS pillars and you commit to aligning FCAS with NATO requirements (make it interoperable)
February 11, 2026 at 9:38 AM
You then propose a govt level arbitration mechanism to settle industrial disputes on FCAS quickly, you emphasise how German industry has a long term and visible role on all FCAS pillars and you commit to aligning FCAS with NATO requirements (make it interoperable)
You also are very explicit that you believe that EU financing and industrial instruments should come with tight governance, milestones and conditions (the guardrails)
In exchange Merz talks about FCAS/MGCS as strategic European public goods
In exchange Merz talks about FCAS/MGCS as strategic European public goods
February 11, 2026 at 9:38 AM
You also are very explicit that you believe that EU financing and industrial instruments should come with tight governance, milestones and conditions (the guardrails)
In exchange Merz talks about FCAS/MGCS as strategic European public goods
In exchange Merz talks about FCAS/MGCS as strategic European public goods
You are very explicit about endorsing strong simplification agenda -> Merz will talk about this in the press conference
In exchange Merz gives you solid commitment (with deadlines) on FCAS governance and FCAS next phase.
In exchange Merz gives you solid commitment (with deadlines) on FCAS governance and FCAS next phase.
February 11, 2026 at 9:38 AM
You are very explicit about endorsing strong simplification agenda -> Merz will talk about this in the press conference
In exchange Merz gives you solid commitment (with deadlines) on FCAS governance and FCAS next phase.
In exchange Merz gives you solid commitment (with deadlines) on FCAS governance and FCAS next phase.
You compromise on 'Made in Europe', 'buy European' and instead you get targeted preference in defence/critical security tech, framed as security of supply, resilience and interoperability.
Merz will take that and you get what matters because defence is hot right now. And then precedent created
Merz will take that and you get what matters because defence is hot right now. And then precedent created
February 11, 2026 at 9:38 AM
You compromise on 'Made in Europe', 'buy European' and instead you get targeted preference in defence/critical security tech, framed as security of supply, resilience and interoperability.
Merz will take that and you get what matters because defence is hot right now. And then precedent created
Merz will take that and you get what matters because defence is hot right now. And then precedent created
You know you won't get all your demands but when you compromise you'll get what you need, get bargaining chips & lay some easter eggs
So you 'compromise' on eurobonds by agreeing on private savings, EIB/guarantees & 'innovative common instruments' (plus deadlines on these)
Merz will take these
So you 'compromise' on eurobonds by agreeing on private savings, EIB/guarantees & 'innovative common instruments' (plus deadlines on these)
Merz will take these
February 11, 2026 at 9:38 AM
You know you won't get all your demands but when you compromise you'll get what you need, get bargaining chips & lay some easter eggs
So you 'compromise' on eurobonds by agreeing on private savings, EIB/guarantees & 'innovative common instruments' (plus deadlines on these)
Merz will take these
So you 'compromise' on eurobonds by agreeing on private savings, EIB/guarantees & 'innovative common instruments' (plus deadlines on these)
Merz will take these
This might be too clever by half but it fits with Macron choreography when he's trying to achieve two things at once: shift the Overton window on EU stuff and sort out FCAS/SCAF.
So you first do a press tour where you go bold/maximalist: eurobonds, Made in Europe, etc
🧵
So you first do a press tour where you go bold/maximalist: eurobonds, Made in Europe, etc
🧵
February 11, 2026 at 9:38 AM
This might be too clever by half but it fits with Macron choreography when he's trying to achieve two things at once: shift the Overton window on EU stuff and sort out FCAS/SCAF.
So you first do a press tour where you go bold/maximalist: eurobonds, Made in Europe, etc
🧵
So you first do a press tour where you go bold/maximalist: eurobonds, Made in Europe, etc
🧵
Looking forward to the Free Rider index and then banks investment notes comments on the index
February 11, 2026 at 8:02 AM
Looking forward to the Free Rider index and then banks investment notes comments on the index
Brill. The Draghi/Letta/Carney caucus, much closer to Macron than Merz and with finally somebody calling out forcefully what's been blindingly obvious for so long: it's the member states that mess things up mostly, not the centre.
We need a coercion mechanism for MS
We need a coercion mechanism for MS
Tomorrow’s summit is a chance for EU leaders to stop chasing the wrong fixes — and finally sketch a response that matches the scale of Europe’s economic challenge.
Here, lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, @sandertordoir.bsky.social and I lay out what that could look like.
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
Here, lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, @sandertordoir.bsky.social and I lay out what that could look like.
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
Europe is chasing the wrong fix for its growth crisis
The continent’s old growth model no longer works in today’s world. And EU leaders need a plan that matches the scale of this shift.
www.politico.eu
February 11, 2026 at 7:50 AM
Brill. The Draghi/Letta/Carney caucus, much closer to Macron than Merz and with finally somebody calling out forcefully what's been blindingly obvious for so long: it's the member states that mess things up mostly, not the centre.
We need a coercion mechanism for MS
We need a coercion mechanism for MS
Well, we'll see what comes out of AOC being at the Munich Security Conference
Not a bad profile from NYT
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/06/u...
Not a bad profile from NYT
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/06/u...
February 11, 2026 at 6:23 AM
Well, we'll see what comes out of AOC being at the Munich Security Conference
Not a bad profile from NYT
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/06/u...
Not a bad profile from NYT
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/06/u...
Reposted by alina
Violent protests erupt in Albania amid corruption scandal eualive.net/violent-prot... The latest unrest highlights Prime Minister Edi Rama's troubled anti-graft legacy
Violent protests erupt in Albania amid corruption scandal
Anti-government protesters clashed violently with police in Albania’s capital on Tuesday evening, as thousands rallied ...
eualive.net
February 11, 2026 at 5:37 AM
Violent protests erupt in Albania amid corruption scandal eualive.net/violent-prot... The latest unrest highlights Prime Minister Edi Rama's troubled anti-graft legacy
The Romania-Georgia Black Sea HVDC, which at ~1,195 km total length (~1,100 km subsea) will be I think the longest in Europe is progressing 👍
For comparison
UK–Denmark ~757–765 km total (~650 km subsea)
UK–Norway ~720 km subsea
Norway–Netherlands ~580 km subsea
www.energynomics.ro/en/transelec...
For comparison
UK–Denmark ~757–765 km total (~650 km subsea)
UK–Norway ~720 km subsea
Norway–Netherlands ~580 km subsea
www.energynomics.ro/en/transelec...
February 11, 2026 at 6:05 AM
The Romania-Georgia Black Sea HVDC, which at ~1,195 km total length (~1,100 km subsea) will be I think the longest in Europe is progressing 👍
For comparison
UK–Denmark ~757–765 km total (~650 km subsea)
UK–Norway ~720 km subsea
Norway–Netherlands ~580 km subsea
www.energynomics.ro/en/transelec...
For comparison
UK–Denmark ~757–765 km total (~650 km subsea)
UK–Norway ~720 km subsea
Norway–Netherlands ~580 km subsea
www.energynomics.ro/en/transelec...
Benefits of being in 🇪🇺 EVEN if you are absolutely appalling of actually absorbing the money given, i.e spending it as per milestones: between 2022-2024 Romania's GDP would have been 1.2% lower without the Recovery and Resilience Fund money
www.romania-insider.com/pnrr-safe-ro...
www.romania-insider.com/pnrr-safe-ro...
PNRR may boost Romania’s GDP by 1% this year, SAFE may add 1.4%-3.5% by 2030
Assuming full absorption of the money earmarked to Romania under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) – meaning some 2.7% of GDP, roughly half of the entire PNRR budget – by the end of thi...
www.romania-insider.com
February 11, 2026 at 3:46 AM
Benefits of being in 🇪🇺 EVEN if you are absolutely appalling of actually absorbing the money given, i.e spending it as per milestones: between 2022-2024 Romania's GDP would have been 1.2% lower without the Recovery and Resilience Fund money
www.romania-insider.com/pnrr-safe-ro...
www.romania-insider.com/pnrr-safe-ro...
The monetary value of C$476 million is 3-5% of total value of project (upgrading air force fleet).
Even the most maximalist split fleet scenario would still involve 30-40 F-35 (with 60-80 Gripens).
Payment also keeps US guessing (i.e not Trump tweeting at you).
So again, we're still still waiting
Even the most maximalist split fleet scenario would still involve 30-40 F-35 (with 60-80 Gripens).
Payment also keeps US guessing (i.e not Trump tweeting at you).
So again, we're still still waiting
February 11, 2026 at 3:05 AM
The monetary value of C$476 million is 3-5% of total value of project (upgrading air force fleet).
Even the most maximalist split fleet scenario would still involve 30-40 F-35 (with 60-80 Gripens).
Payment also keeps US guessing (i.e not Trump tweeting at you).
So again, we're still still waiting
Even the most maximalist split fleet scenario would still involve 30-40 F-35 (with 60-80 Gripens).
Payment also keeps US guessing (i.e not Trump tweeting at you).
So again, we're still still waiting
This tells us absolutely nothing new about Canada's decision on the F-35/split fleet. It's money allocated for long lead items for an additional 14x F-35 (16 already committed for buying). It's just Canada keeping options open whilst still deliberating.
www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
Canada discreetly puts money down on 14 additional F-35s | CBC News
Ottawa has started to make payments for key components for 14 additional U.S.-built F-35s, even as the Carney government has been reviewing future fighter-jet purchases in the context of trade tension...
www.cbc.ca
February 11, 2026 at 3:05 AM
This tells us absolutely nothing new about Canada's decision on the F-35/split fleet. It's money allocated for long lead items for an additional 14x F-35 (16 already committed for buying). It's just Canada keeping options open whilst still deliberating.
www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
I love this trend of intelligence services publishing their assessments. I think it all started with Biden/US coming out publicly with what they knew about Putin plans to invade in 2022.
Anyway, here's the latest from Estonia 🇪🇪
raport.valisluureamet.ee/2026/en/
Anyway, here's the latest from Estonia 🇪🇪
raport.valisluureamet.ee/2026/en/
International Security and Estonia 2026 – Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service
The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service has published a report covering the security situation in the Baltic Sea region.
raport.valisluureamet.ee
February 11, 2026 at 2:49 AM
I love this trend of intelligence services publishing their assessments. I think it all started with Biden/US coming out publicly with what they knew about Putin plans to invade in 2022.
Anyway, here's the latest from Estonia 🇪🇪
raport.valisluureamet.ee/2026/en/
Anyway, here's the latest from Estonia 🇪🇪
raport.valisluureamet.ee/2026/en/
Reposted by alina
Epstein Files: X Users Are Asking Grok to 'Unblur' Photos of Children www.bellingcat.com/news/2026/02...
Epstein Files: X Users Are Asking Grok to 'Unblur' Photos of Children - bellingcat
Bellingcat reviewed dozens of requests for Grok to generate the faces of children and women that had been redacted from the latest documents.
www.bellingcat.com
February 10, 2026 at 3:08 PM
Epstein Files: X Users Are Asking Grok to 'Unblur' Photos of Children www.bellingcat.com/news/2026/02...
I reckon Europe+Canada is already at ~€550bn defence spend and is Europe's aim is for it alone to spend €700bn annually then when you add Canada the combined total will get to ~1 trillion USD.
The work is in spending it well
The work is in spending it well
February 10, 2026 at 11:28 PM
I reckon Europe+Canada is already at ~€550bn defence spend and is Europe's aim is for it alone to spend €700bn annually then when you add Canada the combined total will get to ~1 trillion USD.
The work is in spending it well
The work is in spending it well
Reposted by alina
I strongly support the call by President Macron to industry: please deliver, please ramp up your production potential and capacity.
Because that is the goal of our defence readiness: more production power, more innovation, stronger deterrence.
And the biggest dividend is peace.
#EUDefence
Because that is the goal of our defence readiness: more production power, more innovation, stronger deterrence.
And the biggest dividend is peace.
#EUDefence
February 10, 2026 at 5:11 PM
I strongly support the call by President Macron to industry: please deliver, please ramp up your production potential and capacity.
Because that is the goal of our defence readiness: more production power, more innovation, stronger deterrence.
And the biggest dividend is peace.
#EUDefence
Because that is the goal of our defence readiness: more production power, more innovation, stronger deterrence.
And the biggest dividend is peace.
#EUDefence
This is 'US stays in, Europeans lead execution' and it's good experience to have even if US becomes unreliable at some point
Political decision made, implementation is incremental & aligned with scheduled personnel rotations and also how quickly 🇬🇧🇮🇹🇩🇪🇵🇱 can scale up what's needed
Political decision made, implementation is incremental & aligned with scheduled personnel rotations and also how quickly 🇬🇧🇮🇹🇩🇪🇵🇱 can scale up what's needed
February 10, 2026 at 11:23 PM
This is 'US stays in, Europeans lead execution' and it's good experience to have even if US becomes unreliable at some point
Political decision made, implementation is incremental & aligned with scheduled personnel rotations and also how quickly 🇬🇧🇮🇹🇩🇪🇵🇱 can scale up what's needed
Political decision made, implementation is incremental & aligned with scheduled personnel rotations and also how quickly 🇬🇧🇮🇹🇩🇪🇵🇱 can scale up what's needed
February 10, 2026 at 11:14 PM
That is Police investigation. All the way back to 1999
'Detectives are expected to interview Mandelson under caution within days on suspicion of misconduct in public office'
www.thetimes.com/article/1553...
'Detectives are expected to interview Mandelson under caution within days on suspicion of misconduct in public office'
www.thetimes.com/article/1553...
Investigation into Mandelson’s Epstein links will go back to Blair era
Civil servants will trawl records going back a quarter century for evidence of inappropriate contact between the disgraced peer and Jeffrey Epstein
www.thetimes.com
February 10, 2026 at 10:18 PM
That is Police investigation. All the way back to 1999
'Detectives are expected to interview Mandelson under caution within days on suspicion of misconduct in public office'
www.thetimes.com/article/1553...
'Detectives are expected to interview Mandelson under caution within days on suspicion of misconduct in public office'
www.thetimes.com/article/1553...