Ben Brindle
@benbrindle.bsky.social
Researcher at the Migration Observatory, University of Oxford. #itfc fan, for my sins.
For media enquiries, please contact Rob McNeil.
For media enquiries, please contact Rob McNeil.
The Migration Advisory Committee has recommended that the government reduce occupation-specific thresholds for Skilled Workers.
Here's why, in 3 posts...
Here's why, in 3 posts...
December 22, 2025 at 1:24 PM
The Migration Advisory Committee has recommended that the government reduce occupation-specific thresholds for Skilled Workers.
Here's why, in 3 posts...
Here's why, in 3 posts...
The high court has told the Home Office the move on period for people granted refugee status should be 56 days (rather than 28) for those at risk of becoming homeless
Thousands to avoid Christmas on streets as Home Office ordered to delay refugee evictions
Thousands to avoid Christmas on streets as Home Office ordered to delay refugee evictions
Move-on period extended from 28 days to 56 days if person recently granted refugee status is at risk of sleeping rough
The UK high court has halted evictions of thousands of new refugees who were at risk of spending Christmas on the streets.
Concern had been mounting among lawyers and human rights campaigners that within days of celebrating being granted refugee status this group could find themselves rough sleeping. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
December 18, 2025 at 3:46 PM
The high court has told the Home Office the move on period for people granted refugee status should be 56 days (rather than 28) for those at risk of becoming homeless
Reposted by Ben Brindle
The Migration Advisory Committee has released its 2025 annual report.
The report looks at the impact of migration on the UK's public finances, Overseas Domestic Workers, and migrants' English language abilities.
Here are three things they found 👇
The report looks at the impact of migration on the UK's public finances, Overseas Domestic Workers, and migrants' English language abilities.
Here are three things they found 👇
December 17, 2025 at 12:55 PM
The Migration Advisory Committee has released its 2025 annual report.
The report looks at the impact of migration on the UK's public finances, Overseas Domestic Workers, and migrants' English language abilities.
Here are three things they found 👇
The report looks at the impact of migration on the UK's public finances, Overseas Domestic Workers, and migrants' English language abilities.
Here are three things they found 👇
Busy day for the MAC, who have also reviewed work visa salary requirements.
They recommend the general salary threshold remains at £41.7k, but also say it would be fine to lower the occ-specific going rate from the median earnings to the 25th pctl.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69413d...
They recommend the general salary threshold remains at £41.7k, but also say it would be fine to lower the occ-specific going rate from the median earnings to the 25th pctl.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69413d...
The Migration Advisory Committee has released its 2025 annual report.
The report looks at the impact of migration on the UK's public finances, Overseas Domestic Workers, and migrants' English language abilities.
Here are three things they found 👇
The report looks at the impact of migration on the UK's public finances, Overseas Domestic Workers, and migrants' English language abilities.
Here are three things they found 👇
December 17, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Busy day for the MAC, who have also reviewed work visa salary requirements.
They recommend the general salary threshold remains at £41.7k, but also say it would be fine to lower the occ-specific going rate from the median earnings to the 25th pctl.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69413d...
They recommend the general salary threshold remains at £41.7k, but also say it would be fine to lower the occ-specific going rate from the median earnings to the 25th pctl.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69413d...
Reposted by Ben Brindle
What is the potential impact of the proposed reforms to the UK's asylum system?
Some measures, like restricting family reunion, may plausibly deter some people from coming to the UK. Yet the evidence is mixed, and insufficient to say whether any effects will be particularly large.
Some measures, like restricting family reunion, may plausibly deter some people from coming to the UK. Yet the evidence is mixed, and insufficient to say whether any effects will be particularly large.
Temporary protection: the UK’s new policies on asylum and returns - Migration Observatory
This commentary discusses the asylum and returns policy reforms, comparisons to other European countries, and whether they will be successful in reducing the number of asylum applications and small bo...
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk
December 11, 2025 at 11:04 AM
What is the potential impact of the proposed reforms to the UK's asylum system?
Some measures, like restricting family reunion, may plausibly deter some people from coming to the UK. Yet the evidence is mixed, and insufficient to say whether any effects will be particularly large.
Some measures, like restricting family reunion, may plausibly deter some people from coming to the UK. Yet the evidence is mixed, and insufficient to say whether any effects will be particularly large.
Reposted by Ben Brindle
New episode of the TDTM podcast just dropped, featuring migration statistics oracle and all-round inspiration Madeleine Sumption from Oxford's @migobs.bsky.social 🔊
Listen to the full episode now on Spotify ⬇️ or Apple Podcasts
open.spotify.com/episode/2Buv...
Listen to the full episode now on Spotify ⬇️ or Apple Podcasts
open.spotify.com/episode/2Buv...
December 9, 2025 at 10:28 AM
New episode of the TDTM podcast just dropped, featuring migration statistics oracle and all-round inspiration Madeleine Sumption from Oxford's @migobs.bsky.social 🔊
Listen to the full episode now on Spotify ⬇️ or Apple Podcasts
open.spotify.com/episode/2Buv...
Listen to the full episode now on Spotify ⬇️ or Apple Podcasts
open.spotify.com/episode/2Buv...
Tim Harford and Christmas is always a great mix.
I don't wrap the presents in my house, although I maintain that's because if it's not a conveniently shaped gift it will be wrapped with so much tape the gift won't be opened until next Christmas...
I don't wrap the presents in my house, although I maintain that's because if it's not a conveniently shaped gift it will be wrapped with so much tape the gift won't be opened until next Christmas...
Santa Claus is a woman. Always has been. (Always will be?)
on.ft.com/43POQET
on.ft.com/43POQET
Santa Claus is still a woman
[FREE TO READ] There is something particularly stubborn about gender roles at Christmas
on.ft.com
December 3, 2025 at 11:18 PM
Tim Harford and Christmas is always a great mix.
I don't wrap the presents in my house, although I maintain that's because if it's not a conveniently shaped gift it will be wrapped with so much tape the gift won't be opened until next Christmas...
I don't wrap the presents in my house, although I maintain that's because if it's not a conveniently shaped gift it will be wrapped with so much tape the gift won't be opened until next Christmas...
Reposted by Ben Brindle
Hot off the press! The latest Migration Observatory press release about today's migration statistics is out and you can read it below. Spoiler alert, massive fall in net migration. Immigration falls in all main categories except asylum: migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/press/net-mi...
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk
November 27, 2025 at 10:53 AM
Hot off the press! The latest Migration Observatory press release about today's migration statistics is out and you can read it below. Spoiler alert, massive fall in net migration. Immigration falls in all main categories except asylum: migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/press/net-mi...
Reposted by Ben Brindle
🔃 "For public policy reasons and Treasury planning, it would be much better if we knew something about these citizen-emigrants."
✍️ @jsm27.bsky.social makes the case for having a better understanding of the British nationals leaving and returning to the UK
ukandeu.ac.uk/who-is-emigr...
✍️ @jsm27.bsky.social makes the case for having a better understanding of the British nationals leaving and returning to the UK
ukandeu.ac.uk/who-is-emigr...
Who is emigrating from the UK? - UK in a changing Europe
John Mahon makes the case for having a better understanding of the British nationals leaving the UK. He argues that the cost to the state of British nationals leaving or returning to the UK varies, so...
ukandeu.ac.uk
November 26, 2025 at 3:48 PM
🔃 "For public policy reasons and Treasury planning, it would be much better if we knew something about these citizen-emigrants."
✍️ @jsm27.bsky.social makes the case for having a better understanding of the British nationals leaving and returning to the UK
ukandeu.ac.uk/who-is-emigr...
✍️ @jsm27.bsky.social makes the case for having a better understanding of the British nationals leaving and returning to the UK
ukandeu.ac.uk/who-is-emigr...
Reposted by Ben Brindle
International student levy on British universities confirmed in Budget 2025 documents www.gov.uk/government/p...
November 26, 2025 at 2:17 PM
International student levy on British universities confirmed in Budget 2025 documents www.gov.uk/government/p...
Reposted by Ben Brindle
somehow this too is about the budget
November 25, 2025 at 3:37 PM
somehow this too is about the budget
The qualifying period to settlement will be increased to a baseline of 10 years.
These criteria will increase or reduce that time, for those who qualify. Only one criterion from each table can be applied
These criteria will increase or reduce that time, for those who qualify. Only one criterion from each table can be applied
November 20, 2025 at 2:53 PM
The qualifying period to settlement will be increased to a baseline of 10 years.
These criteria will increase or reduce that time, for those who qualify. Only one criterion from each table can be applied
These criteria will increase or reduce that time, for those who qualify. Only one criterion from each table can be applied
Reposted by Ben Brindle
The UK government's proposals on changes to settlement (indefinite leave to remain) rules have now been published in a consultation paper, ahead of a statement from the Home Secretary to MPs shortly www.gov.uk/government/c...
Earned settlement
The government is consulting on how the current settlement system should be reformed and how those reforms should be implemented.
www.gov.uk
November 20, 2025 at 12:46 PM
The UK government's proposals on changes to settlement (indefinite leave to remain) rules have now been published in a consultation paper, ahead of a statement from the Home Secretary to MPs shortly www.gov.uk/government/c...
Reposted by Ben Brindle
Does this mean more Brits are leaving the UK now than before the pandemic?
In short, we don't know. That's because British migration estimates using the new method only go back to 2021, and aren't comparable with pre-pandemic estimates based on the old method.
In short, we don't know. That's because British migration estimates using the new method only go back to 2021, and aren't comparable with pre-pandemic estimates based on the old method.
November 18, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Does this mean more Brits are leaving the UK now than before the pandemic?
In short, we don't know. That's because British migration estimates using the new method only go back to 2021, and aren't comparable with pre-pandemic estimates based on the old method.
In short, we don't know. That's because British migration estimates using the new method only go back to 2021, and aren't comparable with pre-pandemic estimates based on the old method.
In the 2010s, net migration was around 250k to 350k each year. Under today's revised estimates, net migration in 2024 (345k) was a lot closer to pre-Brexit levels, although still at the higher end.
But a further fall is likely in next week's migration stats, for the year ending June 2025.
But a further fall is likely in next week's migration stats, for the year ending June 2025.
Revised estimates from the ONS suggest that net migration reached a peak of 944,000 in 2023 (rather than 906,000) and fell faster in 2024, to 345,000 (not 431,000).
Here's all you need to know, in three posts...
Here's all you need to know, in three posts...
November 18, 2025 at 3:53 PM
In the 2010s, net migration was around 250k to 350k each year. Under today's revised estimates, net migration in 2024 (345k) was a lot closer to pre-Brexit levels, although still at the higher end.
But a further fall is likely in next week's migration stats, for the year ending June 2025.
But a further fall is likely in next week's migration stats, for the year ending June 2025.
At the moment, asylum seekers can work if they've been waiting more than 12 months for their claim to be processed, but only in middle-skill or graduate level jobs in shortage
Presumably at least one of those things will have to change if the expectation is more will have to take up work
Presumably at least one of those things will have to change if the expectation is more will have to take up work
November 16, 2025 at 12:23 PM
At the moment, asylum seekers can work if they've been waiting more than 12 months for their claim to be processed, but only in middle-skill or graduate level jobs in shortage
Presumably at least one of those things will have to change if the expectation is more will have to take up work
Presumably at least one of those things will have to change if the expectation is more will have to take up work
We estimate the number of non-EU citizens with ILR is likely to be between 620k and 820k
More details on how we reached those figures in the commentary
More details on how we reached those figures in the commentary
A key recent discussion about UK migration has been people's rights to settle permanemently - or "indefinite leave to remain" - but how many people have this status? Our latest piece gives you the info (NB - doesn't include EU settlement scheme) migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
How many migrants in the UK have settlement? - Migration Observatory
This commentary estimates the number of non-EU citizens who currently have settlement, also known as indefinite leave to remain (ILR).
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk
November 10, 2025 at 4:28 PM
We estimate the number of non-EU citizens with ILR is likely to be between 620k and 820k
More details on how we reached those figures in the commentary
More details on how we reached those figures in the commentary
Phenomenal series. Phenomenal finale #celebritytraitors
November 6, 2025 at 11:51 PM
Phenomenal series. Phenomenal finale #celebritytraitors
Reposted by Ben Brindle
The government has said that sectors requesting high numbers of work visas will be required to implement workforce training plans, but how will that work in practice?
I discuss how the policy could be implemented in this piece for the Economics Observatory.
I discuss how the policy could be implemented in this piece for the Economics Observatory.
JUST PUBLISHED
How might the UK’s new approach to migration affect the economy?
By @benbrindle.bsky.social, @migobs.bsky.social
How might the UK’s new approach to migration affect the economy?
By @benbrindle.bsky.social, @migobs.bsky.social
How might the UK’s new approach to migration affect the economy? - Economics Observatory
Net migration in the UK reached historic highs following the introduction of the post-Brexit immigration system. While this is likely to have only minor effects on the labour market and public…
buff.ly
October 29, 2025 at 9:28 AM
The government has said that sectors requesting high numbers of work visas will be required to implement workforce training plans, but how will that work in practice?
I discuss how the policy could be implemented in this piece for the Economics Observatory.
I discuss how the policy could be implemented in this piece for the Economics Observatory.
The government has said that sectors requesting high numbers of work visas will be required to implement workforce training plans, but how will that work in practice?
I discuss how the policy could be implemented in this piece for the Economics Observatory.
I discuss how the policy could be implemented in this piece for the Economics Observatory.
JUST PUBLISHED
How might the UK’s new approach to migration affect the economy?
By @benbrindle.bsky.social, @migobs.bsky.social
How might the UK’s new approach to migration affect the economy?
By @benbrindle.bsky.social, @migobs.bsky.social
How might the UK’s new approach to migration affect the economy? - Economics Observatory
Net migration in the UK reached historic highs following the introduction of the post-Brexit immigration system. While this is likely to have only minor effects on the labour market and public…
buff.ly
October 29, 2025 at 9:28 AM
The government has said that sectors requesting high numbers of work visas will be required to implement workforce training plans, but how will that work in practice?
I discuss how the policy could be implemented in this piece for the Economics Observatory.
I discuss how the policy could be implemented in this piece for the Economics Observatory.
We know what migrants on work visas are doing in the labour market, but we know very little about the jobs their partners are doing and how much they're earning.
New FOI data sheds light on that.
New FOI data sheds light on that.
October 28, 2025 at 10:02 AM
We know what migrants on work visas are doing in the labour market, but we know very little about the jobs their partners are doing and how much they're earning.
New FOI data sheds light on that.
New FOI data sheds light on that.
Reposted by Ben Brindle
New monthly visa data:
➤ Skilled worker visa applications fell following July restrictions on care workers & mid-skilled jobs
➤Student visa applications similar to last year
➤Family visa applications ticking back upwards after the peak & decline that followed MIR increase
➤ Skilled worker visa applications fell following July restrictions on care workers & mid-skilled jobs
➤Student visa applications similar to last year
➤Family visa applications ticking back upwards after the peak & decline that followed MIR increase
October 9, 2025 at 10:40 AM
New monthly visa data:
➤ Skilled worker visa applications fell following July restrictions on care workers & mid-skilled jobs
➤Student visa applications similar to last year
➤Family visa applications ticking back upwards after the peak & decline that followed MIR increase
➤ Skilled worker visa applications fell following July restrictions on care workers & mid-skilled jobs
➤Student visa applications similar to last year
➤Family visa applications ticking back upwards after the peak & decline that followed MIR increase
Norwich fans everywhere sounding like a cabinet minister in an unpopular government on the eve of local elections, playing down expectations.
Then they'll nick a draw and act as if it's some incredible feat and not a perfectly plausible outcome #itfc
Then they'll nick a draw and act as if it's some incredible feat and not a perfectly plausible outcome #itfc
October 4, 2025 at 7:53 PM
Norwich fans everywhere sounding like a cabinet minister in an unpopular government on the eve of local elections, playing down expectations.
Then they'll nick a draw and act as if it's some incredible feat and not a perfectly plausible outcome #itfc
Then they'll nick a draw and act as if it's some incredible feat and not a perfectly plausible outcome #itfc
Reposted by Ben Brindle
Overall, incarceration and conviction rates are broadly similar for foreign and British nationals. When controlling for age and sex, non-citizens are less likely to be incarcerated than Brits.
A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.
A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.
September 30, 2025 at 8:43 AM
Overall, incarceration and conviction rates are broadly similar for foreign and British nationals. When controlling for age and sex, non-citizens are less likely to be incarcerated than Brits.
A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.
A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.