Ben Brindle
@benbrindle.bsky.social
Researcher at the Migration Observatory, University of Oxford. #itfc fan, for my sins.
For media enquiries, please contact Rob McNeil.
For media enquiries, please contact Rob McNeil.
We estimate the number of non-EU citizens with ILR is likely to be between 620k and 820k
More details on how we reached those figures in the commentary
More details on how we reached those figures in the commentary
A key recent discussion about UK migration has been people's rights to settle permanemently - or "indefinite leave to remain" - but how many people have this status? Our latest piece gives you the info (NB - doesn't include EU settlement scheme) migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
How many migrants in the UK have settlement? - Migration Observatory
This commentary estimates the number of non-EU citizens who currently have settlement, also known as indefinite leave to remain (ILR).
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk
November 10, 2025 at 4:28 PM
We estimate the number of non-EU citizens with ILR is likely to be between 620k and 820k
More details on how we reached those figures in the commentary
More details on how we reached those figures in the commentary
Phenomenal series. Phenomenal finale #celebritytraitors
November 6, 2025 at 11:51 PM
Phenomenal series. Phenomenal finale #celebritytraitors
Reposted by Ben Brindle
The government has said that sectors requesting high numbers of work visas will be required to implement workforce training plans, but how will that work in practice?
I discuss how the policy could be implemented in this piece for the Economics Observatory.
I discuss how the policy could be implemented in this piece for the Economics Observatory.
JUST PUBLISHED
How might the UK’s new approach to migration affect the economy?
By @benbrindle.bsky.social, @migobs.bsky.social
How might the UK’s new approach to migration affect the economy?
By @benbrindle.bsky.social, @migobs.bsky.social
How might the UK’s new approach to migration affect the economy? - Economics Observatory
Net migration in the UK reached historic highs following the introduction of the post-Brexit immigration system. While this is likely to have only minor effects on the labour market and public…
buff.ly
October 29, 2025 at 9:28 AM
The government has said that sectors requesting high numbers of work visas will be required to implement workforce training plans, but how will that work in practice?
I discuss how the policy could be implemented in this piece for the Economics Observatory.
I discuss how the policy could be implemented in this piece for the Economics Observatory.
The government has said that sectors requesting high numbers of work visas will be required to implement workforce training plans, but how will that work in practice?
I discuss how the policy could be implemented in this piece for the Economics Observatory.
I discuss how the policy could be implemented in this piece for the Economics Observatory.
JUST PUBLISHED
How might the UK’s new approach to migration affect the economy?
By @benbrindle.bsky.social, @migobs.bsky.social
How might the UK’s new approach to migration affect the economy?
By @benbrindle.bsky.social, @migobs.bsky.social
How might the UK’s new approach to migration affect the economy? - Economics Observatory
Net migration in the UK reached historic highs following the introduction of the post-Brexit immigration system. While this is likely to have only minor effects on the labour market and public…
buff.ly
October 29, 2025 at 9:28 AM
The government has said that sectors requesting high numbers of work visas will be required to implement workforce training plans, but how will that work in practice?
I discuss how the policy could be implemented in this piece for the Economics Observatory.
I discuss how the policy could be implemented in this piece for the Economics Observatory.
We know what migrants on work visas are doing in the labour market, but we know very little about the jobs their partners are doing and how much they're earning.
New FOI data sheds light on that.
New FOI data sheds light on that.
October 28, 2025 at 10:02 AM
We know what migrants on work visas are doing in the labour market, but we know very little about the jobs their partners are doing and how much they're earning.
New FOI data sheds light on that.
New FOI data sheds light on that.
Reposted by Ben Brindle
New monthly visa data:
➤ Skilled worker visa applications fell following July restrictions on care workers & mid-skilled jobs
➤Student visa applications similar to last year
➤Family visa applications ticking back upwards after the peak & decline that followed MIR increase
➤ Skilled worker visa applications fell following July restrictions on care workers & mid-skilled jobs
➤Student visa applications similar to last year
➤Family visa applications ticking back upwards after the peak & decline that followed MIR increase
October 9, 2025 at 10:40 AM
New monthly visa data:
➤ Skilled worker visa applications fell following July restrictions on care workers & mid-skilled jobs
➤Student visa applications similar to last year
➤Family visa applications ticking back upwards after the peak & decline that followed MIR increase
➤ Skilled worker visa applications fell following July restrictions on care workers & mid-skilled jobs
➤Student visa applications similar to last year
➤Family visa applications ticking back upwards after the peak & decline that followed MIR increase
Norwich fans everywhere sounding like a cabinet minister in an unpopular government on the eve of local elections, playing down expectations.
Then they'll nick a draw and act as if it's some incredible feat and not a perfectly plausible outcome #itfc
Then they'll nick a draw and act as if it's some incredible feat and not a perfectly plausible outcome #itfc
October 4, 2025 at 7:53 PM
Norwich fans everywhere sounding like a cabinet minister in an unpopular government on the eve of local elections, playing down expectations.
Then they'll nick a draw and act as if it's some incredible feat and not a perfectly plausible outcome #itfc
Then they'll nick a draw and act as if it's some incredible feat and not a perfectly plausible outcome #itfc
Reposted by Ben Brindle
Overall, incarceration and conviction rates are broadly similar for foreign and British nationals. When controlling for age and sex, non-citizens are less likely to be incarcerated than Brits.
A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.
A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.
September 30, 2025 at 8:43 AM
Overall, incarceration and conviction rates are broadly similar for foreign and British nationals. When controlling for age and sex, non-citizens are less likely to be incarcerated than Brits.
A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.
A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.
Overall, incarceration and conviction rates are broadly similar for foreign and British nationals. When controlling for age and sex, non-citizens are less likely to be incarcerated than Brits.
A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.
A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.
September 30, 2025 at 8:43 AM
Overall, incarceration and conviction rates are broadly similar for foreign and British nationals. When controlling for age and sex, non-citizens are less likely to be incarcerated than Brits.
A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.
A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.
Reposted by Ben Brindle
Do you have a lot of annoying admin tasks or household chores you need to accomplish, but never seem to find the time for? Then may I suggest: setting aside a day to do nothing but write, you will be amazed at how many such tasks you can accomplish.
September 18, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Do you have a lot of annoying admin tasks or household chores you need to accomplish, but never seem to find the time for? Then may I suggest: setting aside a day to do nothing but write, you will be amazed at how many such tasks you can accomplish.
Reposted by Ben Brindle
Good question at Home Office questions from @lisasmartmp.bsky.social on the move-on period for refugees, after the part suspension of the pilot giving 56 days instead of 28. The Home Secretary said they were following the evidence of what works - but the evaluation of the pilot is still underway.
September 15, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Good question at Home Office questions from @lisasmartmp.bsky.social on the move-on period for refugees, after the part suspension of the pilot giving 56 days instead of 28. The Home Secretary said they were following the evidence of what works - but the evaluation of the pilot is still underway.
@mark-heath.bsky.social @alexnljones.bsky.social The listeners have decided – Heineken is poor, but then so is Corona
Get some IPAs in the rotation!
Get some IPAs in the rotation!
September 12, 2025 at 8:56 AM
@mark-heath.bsky.social @alexnljones.bsky.social The listeners have decided – Heineken is poor, but then so is Corona
Get some IPAs in the rotation!
Get some IPAs in the rotation!
Reposted by Ben Brindle
The government has announced key changes to its refugee family reunion policy. Our Q&A explains what’s changed, who’s affected, the possible consequences, and how the UK compares with other countries in Europe. Read more 👇
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
Q&A: The UK’s new approach to refugee family reunion - Migration Observatory
This Q&A answers some common questions on the UK’s new approach to refugee family reunion.
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk
September 9, 2025 at 9:44 AM
The government has announced key changes to its refugee family reunion policy. Our Q&A explains what’s changed, who’s affected, the possible consequences, and how the UK compares with other countries in Europe. Read more 👇
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
I'm biased, but our new Q&A on housing for asylum seekers and refugees is an incredibly interesting read.
In the Q&A, we cover the following:
In the Q&A, we cover the following:
September 5, 2025 at 12:46 PM
I'm biased, but our new Q&A on housing for asylum seekers and refugees is an incredibly interesting read.
In the Q&A, we cover the following:
In the Q&A, we cover the following:
Terrible news. I'd never say this to his face, but Melvyn's dulcet tones have helped me get off to sleep more times than I can count
Melvyn Bragg has decided to stand down as host of In Our Time, the BBC says.
September 3, 2025 at 10:39 AM
Terrible news. I'd never say this to his face, but Melvyn's dulcet tones have helped me get off to sleep more times than I can count
Reposted by Ben Brindle
65% of the increase in the UK’s population between 2004 and 2023 was due to net migration, and ONS projections assume this will rise to 104% in the coming years—in other words, the population would decline without net migration.
See our updated population growth briefing for more.
See our updated population growth briefing for more.
August 19, 2025 at 7:44 AM
65% of the increase in the UK’s population between 2004 and 2023 was due to net migration, and ONS projections assume this will rise to 104% in the coming years—in other words, the population would decline without net migration.
See our updated population growth briefing for more.
See our updated population growth briefing for more.
Reposted by Ben Brindle
@gralefrit.bsky.social You have to see these! A friend of mine has been collating a series of images entitled "Things my students have written turned into Philomena Cunk quotes" and they're just glorious.
August 11, 2025 at 11:12 AM
@gralefrit.bsky.social You have to see these! A friend of mine has been collating a series of images entitled "Things my students have written turned into Philomena Cunk quotes" and they're just glorious.
What I found most interesting when writing this update was the increased number of students moving to graduate visas, likely a result of more restrictive Skilled Worker criteria.
Another 75,000 Graduate visas were granted in the first three months of 2025 alone.
Another 75,000 Graduate visas were granted in the first three months of 2025 alone.
August 12, 2025 at 9:52 AM
What I found most interesting when writing this update was the increased number of students moving to graduate visas, likely a result of more restrictive Skilled Worker criteria.
Another 75,000 Graduate visas were granted in the first three months of 2025 alone.
Another 75,000 Graduate visas were granted in the first three months of 2025 alone.
Reposted by Ben Brindle
1. Labour market continues to cool. Payroll employment trending down & vacancies falling for 37th month in a row. Not going off a cliff, but definite downward trend. Average pay growth easing. But at 5% (ex bonuses) still above level consistent with inflation target, given weak productivity growth.
August 12, 2025 at 6:43 AM
1. Labour market continues to cool. Payroll employment trending down & vacancies falling for 37th month in a row. Not going off a cliff, but definite downward trend. Average pay growth easing. But at 5% (ex bonuses) still above level consistent with inflation target, given weak productivity growth.
This is a really interesting thread on public attitudes towards migration.
A recent YouGov poll found 45% support for admitting no new migrants and requiring large numbers to leave - but a deeper look suggests that most of this group don't actually want to remove those who make up the bulk of migrants to the UK 🧵/
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
August 5, 2025 at 10:30 AM
This is a really interesting thread on public attitudes towards migration.
Incredible bit of business from Town. He's too good for the Championship, even with the concerns about his fitness.
I'm trying not to but can't help feel very confident about our prospects this season #itfc
I'm trying not to but can't help feel very confident about our prospects this season #itfc
Cajuste Set For Town Return #itfc #premierleague #besiktas #Superlig #ForzaNapoliSempre #seriea #clarets #twittboll
Cajuste Set For Town Return - Ipswich Town News
Jens Cajuste is set to travel to back to England to undergo a medical at Town having agreed to return to the Blues for a second season on loan, according to a report in Italy.
www.twtd.co.uk
August 4, 2025 at 5:51 PM
Incredible bit of business from Town. He's too good for the Championship, even with the concerns about his fitness.
I'm trying not to but can't help feel very confident about our prospects this season #itfc
I'm trying not to but can't help feel very confident about our prospects this season #itfc
Reposted by Ben Brindle
At the end of June, foreign nationals made up 10% of the sentenced prison population in England and Wales, a little less than their share of the adult population (12%).
New MoJ data shows how that differs by offence type.
New MoJ data shows how that differs by offence type.
August 1, 2025 at 7:15 AM
At the end of June, foreign nationals made up 10% of the sentenced prison population in England and Wales, a little less than their share of the adult population (12%).
New MoJ data shows how that differs by offence type.
New MoJ data shows how that differs by offence type.
Reposted by Ben Brindle
I’ve always wondered how employers & workers split the cost of UK immigration fees
Here it is for Skilled Worker visas from a Home Office survey of sponsors
Surprisingly little variation by industry/employer size (in underlying data tables)
www.gov.uk/government/p...
Here it is for Skilled Worker visas from a Home Office survey of sponsors
Surprisingly little variation by industry/employer size (in underlying data tables)
www.gov.uk/government/p...
August 1, 2025 at 9:46 AM
I’ve always wondered how employers & workers split the cost of UK immigration fees
Here it is for Skilled Worker visas from a Home Office survey of sponsors
Surprisingly little variation by industry/employer size (in underlying data tables)
www.gov.uk/government/p...
Here it is for Skilled Worker visas from a Home Office survey of sponsors
Surprisingly little variation by industry/employer size (in underlying data tables)
www.gov.uk/government/p...
At the end of June, foreign nationals made up 10% of the sentenced prison population in England and Wales, a little less than their share of the adult population (12%).
New MoJ data shows how that differs by offence type.
New MoJ data shows how that differs by offence type.
August 1, 2025 at 7:15 AM
At the end of June, foreign nationals made up 10% of the sentenced prison population in England and Wales, a little less than their share of the adult population (12%).
New MoJ data shows how that differs by offence type.
New MoJ data shows how that differs by offence type.