Jonathan Portes
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jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes
@jdportes.bsky.social

Professor of Economics and Public Policy, King's College London; Senior Fellow, UK in a Changing Europe. Immigration, economics, public policy. Personal views only; usual disclaimers apply.

Books: Immigration (Sage), Capitalism (Quercus)
.. more

Jonathan Daniel Portes is a professor of Economics and Public Policy at the School of Politics & Economics of King's College, London and a senior fellow at UK in a Changing Europe.

Source: Wikipedia
Political science 31%
Economics 28%
The idea of a $1 billion lawsuit from Donald Trump is utter nonsense

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cd...
Trump threatens $1bn legal action against BBC over 6 January speech edit
The BBC chair earlier apologises for the
www.bbc.co.uk

The Telegraph had to correct its multiple lies about "illegal immigrants" in London at least three separate times.
It takes an obscene amount of hubris to lecture the BBC when you have The Telegraph’s record on truth-telling.

Some of the paper’s errors this year are so bad they’re almost laughable 👇🏻
The Telegraph’s BBC hypocrisy
A paper that knows a thing or two about editorial f*ck-ups...
writesbright.substack.com
It takes an obscene amount of hubris to lecture the BBC when you have The Telegraph’s record on truth-telling.

Some of the paper’s errors this year are so bad they’re almost laughable 👇🏻
The Telegraph’s BBC hypocrisy
A paper that knows a thing or two about editorial f*ck-ups...
writesbright.substack.com
Very interesting piece, including the extract below which has the ring of truth
A key recent discussion about UK migration has been people's rights to settle permanemently - or "indefinite leave to remain" - but how many people have this status? Our latest piece gives you the info (NB - doesn't include EU settlement scheme) migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
How many migrants in the UK have settlement? - Migration Observatory
This commentary estimates the number of non-EU citizens who currently have settlement, also known as indefinite leave to remain (ILR).
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk
The fact that the BBC has made serious culpable errors does not negate the point that there is a real and concerted right-wing media campaign to destroy it. Both points can be true at the same time and the campaign would not end even if the errors did.

Will read carefully but my immediate reaction is that an employment hit of 3-4% just looks way too high to be plausible?
Headline from a serious and long working paper on the economic impact of Brexit. Possible that this has been feeding into OBR and HMT discussions?

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

Palestinian woman Umm Zuhri Shweiki was forcibly expelled from her home in occupied East Jerusalem by Israeli forces, who seized and emptied her house before handing it to Israeli settlers.

It's frustrating if -either because of my own inarticulacy or because of the presenter's bias/incompetence - I fail to make the key points clearly. However I was pretty happy with this one.
Headline from a serious and long working paper on the economic impact of Brexit. Possible that this has been feeding into OBR and HMT discussions?
Reports suggest that the UK plans to emulate Denmark's migration system

@kristinabsimonsen.bsky.social argues that "research from the country suggests that drawing lessons from the Danish migration policy should be done with caution and involves pitfalls for British politicians."

🔗 bit.ly/3LA1UI4
Denmark’s migration policy – an example to follow? - UK in a changing Europe
Kristina Bakkær Simonsen explains why countries feel they have something to learn from Denmark's strict migration policy, but argues that there are many key pitfalls.
bit.ly

Reposted by Stuart White

Scrapping the cap entirely is both good policy *and* good politics.

Half measures will "save" some money short-term, but will piss *everybody* off and still leave very large numbers of children suffering from a policy designed to make them poorer.

inews.co.uk/news/politic...
Food vouchers, free milk and two-child cap: Reeves weighs up help for families
Ministers' long-awaited child poverty strategy is due this month - and it's closely tied to the Chancellor's Budget
inews.co.uk

I think that's slightly unfair on Nolan -yes, he did do a bit of that, but he absolutely skewered him on the "5 star hotel" nonsense which I felt more than made up for it.

This is very clear, sensible and balanced.

What I would add is that they also need a much more convincing explanation of how government will use money to make people's lives better. Just saying we will spend eleventy-squillion on the NHS is not enough...
Breaking the tax pledge is the right call...and politically sulphurous. Reeves must argue, far more forcefully, that taxes are *the* essential downpayment we all pay for a fairer society.

Patrick Diamond and I wrote for @renewaljournal.bsky.social. Key points in 🧵 👇

renewal.org.uk/blog/if-labo...
If Labour want a fairer society, they must argue for it
Labour must make the political argument: taxes are the critical downpayment we all pay to live in a fairer society.  It now seems all but certain that direct taxes will rise in the forthcoming Budget...
renewal.org.uk

Reposted by Steve Peers

"You, like Nigel Farage, are simply lying about what the ONS says."

I somewhat lost my patience with Reform Councillor Bill Piper here.. (from about 1h 27 min in)

www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
Stephen Nolan - 08/11/2025 - BBC Sounds
The day's main news stories, topical debate and interviews.
www.bbc.co.uk
Breaking the tax pledge is the right call...and politically sulphurous. Reeves must argue, far more forcefully, that taxes are *the* essential downpayment we all pay for a fairer society.

Patrick Diamond and I wrote for @renewaljournal.bsky.social. Key points in 🧵 👇

renewal.org.uk/blog/if-labo...
If Labour want a fairer society, they must argue for it
Labour must make the political argument: taxes are the critical downpayment we all pay to live in a fairer society.  It now seems all but certain that direct taxes will rise in the forthcoming Budget...
renewal.org.uk

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

Meanwhile, back in the real world....
Food vouchers, free milk and two-child cap: Reeves weighs up help for families
Ministers' long-awaited child poverty strategy is due this month - and it's closely tied to the Chancellor's Budget
inews.co.uk
Martin Wolf says that while Labour promised to be revolutionary, it's been reactionary on employment, housing and education. It's an important debate...- on.ft.com/47wFwYL via @financialtimes.com
The disturbing victory of Old Labour over New Labour
In education, labour and housing we risk going back towards what we know will not work
on.ft.com
So the Telegraph’s “BBC bias dossier” - supposedly written by ex-BBC adviser Michael Prescott - is being used to claim there’s a rogue LGBT+ unit “censoring” gender-critical voices inside the BBC.

Let’s look at what’s actually in it. Spoiler: it’s nothing but recycled transphobic talking points!

🧵
For reference - Here’s the Telegraph article with the Prescott memo complaining about the BBC published in FULL.

Obviously, it’s an archived link which circumvents their paywall - as there’s no way I’m gonna give that transphobic rag any clicks or coin! 😣

👉 archive.ph/mJIsB

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

Why does the Conservative Party tolerate the membership of Susan Hall? Why, in particular, do Conservatives in #London?

I did not get the impression he was the sharpest knife in the drawer 😉

Actually that bit was Nolan! He was very good on that.

Reposted by Steve Peers

On BBC 5Live with Stephen Nolan and Reform councillor Bill Piper, who repeats Nigel Farage's lies about migrants not working, and doubles down when I give him the facts.

"He ought to know the facts" Nolan concludes 😉

[from 1h 27 min in]

www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
Stephen Nolan - 08/11/2025 - BBC Sounds
The day's main news stories, topical debate and interviews.
www.bbc.co.uk
“The debate about crime… has become a lightning rod that, like the immigration debate, captures a wider set of anxieties about a wider set of failures of policymaking and statecraft.” My ‪@theobserveruk.bsky.social column: observer.co.uk/news/columni...
Violent crime is at a low, yet people’s experiences tell a different story | The Observer
observer.co.uk
I see Jason Cowley is now claiming Gareth Southgate for Blue Labour. Can't say I see any connection between a nostalgic view for imagined white working class communities of the 1950s and building a successful team in the image of a multicultural country...
1/ The US Government has quietly removed a memorial to Black soldiers who died in World War II from the Netherlands American Cemetery in Margraten, South Limburg. The move follows a complaint from the right-wing Heritage Foundation to the American Battle Monuments Commission. ⬇️
The BBC is apologising for its Panorama edit. It shouldn’t. First, the narrative is true: Donald Trump *did* incite the Capitol riot. Second, the apology won’t appease those attacking it. So why not at least stand for something?

Wrote this on it earlier this week:
inews.co.uk/news/world/b...
The BBC was right about the Capitol riots. In a sane world, Trump would be in jail
The US President faced impeachment over the violence, and in a world where Republicans had more courage, he would have been found guilty
inews.co.uk
New podcast: me reflecting on US economic policies since the election, what we foresaw, what surprised, what the impact has been and will be.

Includes a warning about the seeds being sown for the next financial crisis by Trump's crypto and Fed policy combo.

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a...
Adam Posen on the economy one year after the US election (Episode 11)
Podcast Episode · PIIE Insider LIVE · 11/07/2025 · 32m
podcasts.apple.com

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

A national newspaper journalist went on a British TV channel to claim police stats showed asylum-seekers committed 44% of sex crimes in Dorset.

This shocking claim was treated as fact by the channel which promoted the clip on social media where it was amplified by AI.

Except... it's bollocks.