Jonathan Portes
@jdportes.bsky.social
Professor of Economics and Public Policy, King's College London; Senior Fellow, UK in a Changing Europe. Immigration, economics, public policy. Personal views only; usual disclaimers apply.
Books: Immigration (Sage), Capitalism (Quercus)
Books: Immigration (Sage), Capitalism (Quercus)
"Far from draining our welfare system, migrants are supporting the British state’s solvency."
New analysis by @lgilbert.co
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
New analysis by @lgilbert.co
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
November 7, 2025 at 8:17 AM
"Far from draining our welfare system, migrants are supporting the British state’s solvency."
New analysis by @lgilbert.co
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
New analysis by @lgilbert.co
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
What do you mean "we", white man? 😉
November 1, 2025 at 5:45 PM
What do you mean "we", white man? 😉
worth noting that the Mail article about the specific primary school was actually reasonably balanced, and pointed out that by the time they leave school their English skills are better than the national average
archive.ph/QSGaI
archive.ph/QSGaI
October 31, 2025 at 4:43 PM
worth noting that the Mail article about the specific primary school was actually reasonably balanced, and pointed out that by the time they leave school their English skills are better than the national average
archive.ph/QSGaI
archive.ph/QSGaI
3. There are no straight factual errors in this paragraph, but are you really arguing that it is consistent with the HO data I posted, or that this data wouldn't have been appropriate context?
October 31, 2025 at 8:41 AM
3. There are no straight factual errors in this paragraph, but are you really arguing that it is consistent with the HO data I posted, or that this data wouldn't have been appropriate context?
This is the IPSOS data - bankers are at the bottom! *Way* below care workers. Other evidence supports this. You would certainly not get that from your chart, but it seems highly relevant, doesn't it?
October 31, 2025 at 8:38 AM
This is the IPSOS data - bankers are at the bottom! *Way* below care workers. Other evidence supports this. You would certainly not get that from your chart, but it seems highly relevant, doesn't it?
More generally, there's a wealth of evidence that UK compares relatively well to other OECD countries on labour market outcomes of migrants, and that those outcomes have been improving. As well as integration more broadly. Bizarre not to mention/refer to any of this.
October 31, 2025 at 7:53 AM
More generally, there's a wealth of evidence that UK compares relatively well to other OECD countries on labour market outcomes of migrants, and that those outcomes have been improving. As well as integration more broadly. Bizarre not to mention/refer to any of this.
Meanwhile, compare his bizarre, mostly unlabelled and incomplete chart (left) with *actual data* (again from HO/HMRC).
October 31, 2025 at 7:42 AM
Meanwhile, compare his bizarre, mostly unlabelled and incomplete chart (left) with *actual data* (again from HO/HMRC).
This is unusually sloppy for @jburnmurdoch.ft.com - uncharacteristically, he doesn't cite *any* data to back up his claims about the outcomes of the UK system.
But we have Home Office/HMRC data on this! Those on skilled work visas earn about 2x UK average..
www.ft.com/content/d70c...
But we have Home Office/HMRC data on this! Those on skilled work visas earn about 2x UK average..
www.ft.com/content/d70c...
October 31, 2025 at 7:40 AM
This is unusually sloppy for @jburnmurdoch.ft.com - uncharacteristically, he doesn't cite *any* data to back up his claims about the outcomes of the UK system.
But we have Home Office/HMRC data on this! Those on skilled work visas earn about 2x UK average..
www.ft.com/content/d70c...
But we have Home Office/HMRC data on this! Those on skilled work visas earn about 2x UK average..
www.ft.com/content/d70c...
Lam took a bunch of X posts from far-right racists and so-called "thinktanks" and turned them into a policy that collapsed as soon as anyone actually read it/understood it.
Would have been an absolute travesty if she hadn't won!
Would have been an absolute travesty if she hadn't won!
October 30, 2025 at 7:51 AM
Lam took a bunch of X posts from far-right racists and so-called "thinktanks" and turned them into a policy that collapsed as soon as anyone actually read it/understood it.
Would have been an absolute travesty if she hadn't won!
Would have been an absolute travesty if she hadn't won!
Net migration to the UK is falling rapidly. But how far will it fall? A new, detailed estimate by @jamesbowes01.bsky.social projects net migration in 2026 will be 70K to 170K.
This will have significant consequences, both economic and political.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
This will have significant consequences, both economic and political.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
October 29, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Net migration to the UK is falling rapidly. But how far will it fall? A new, detailed estimate by @jamesbowes01.bsky.social projects net migration in 2026 will be 70K to 170K.
This will have significant consequences, both economic and political.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
This will have significant consequences, both economic and political.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
I suspect one byproduct of this "crackdown" will be that it will reveal that illegal working is significantly less of an issue than most people think...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
October 29, 2025 at 8:36 AM
I suspect one byproduct of this "crackdown" will be that it will reveal that illegal working is significantly less of an issue than most people think...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Montie devotes a lot of effort to claiming that statements that are very obviously racist are not, in fact, racist, and that the real problem is those who dare to point out that they are very obviously racist.
October 27, 2025 at 7:55 AM
Montie devotes a lot of effort to claiming that statements that are very obviously racist are not, in fact, racist, and that the real problem is those who dare to point out that they are very obviously racist.
Complete HMRC data, taken directly from employer PAYE returns. Numbers have fallen, but does this look like a mass exodus to you
October 26, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Complete HMRC data, taken directly from employer PAYE returns. Numbers have fallen, but does this look like a mass exodus to you
For the record, I sent this email to several BBC contacts on October 6th (three weeks ago), with no response/follow-up.
October 26, 2025 at 2:27 PM
For the record, I sent this email to several BBC contacts on October 6th (three weeks ago), with no response/follow-up.
Very good from @jonnelledge.bsky.social but I think misses the vital role of the "respectable" conservative press in normalising this.
Compare/contrast the Times' evisceration of Powell in 1968 with its current enthusiasm for deportation/"remigration".
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
Compare/contrast the Times' evisceration of Powell in 1968 with its current enthusiasm for deportation/"remigration".
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
October 26, 2025 at 10:11 AM
Very good from @jonnelledge.bsky.social but I think misses the vital role of the "respectable" conservative press in normalising this.
Compare/contrast the Times' evisceration of Powell in 1968 with its current enthusiasm for deportation/"remigration".
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
Compare/contrast the Times' evisceration of Powell in 1968 with its current enthusiasm for deportation/"remigration".
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
Josh is by no means the only/worst offender here, but there is I'm afraid absolutely no excuse here for him a) misrepresenting/sanewashing her policy and b) not asking "so you'd strip ILR from pensioners and force them to leave the country" given that she said, in Parliament, that she'd do that.
October 24, 2025 at 9:47 PM
Josh is by no means the only/worst offender here, but there is I'm afraid absolutely no excuse here for him a) misrepresenting/sanewashing her policy and b) not asking "so you'd strip ILR from pensioners and force them to leave the country" given that she said, in Parliament, that she'd do that.
Understand your point - but no, they couldn't, because Lam made absolutely clear in March it covered pensions/pensioners.
www.theyworkforyou.com/pbc/2024-25/...
www.theyworkforyou.com/pbc/2024-25/...
October 23, 2025 at 9:35 PM
Understand your point - but no, they couldn't, because Lam made absolutely clear in March it covered pensions/pensioners.
www.theyworkforyou.com/pbc/2024-25/...
www.theyworkforyou.com/pbc/2024-25/...
Further to this - and once again I am doing the basic research that political journalists should have done six months ago - Lam said on the record in Parliament that this *does* apply to pensions/pensioners.
October 23, 2025 at 9:34 PM
Further to this - and once again I am doing the basic research that political journalists should have done six months ago - Lam said on the record in Parliament that this *does* apply to pensions/pensioners.
Oh wait, it turns out this was a straightforward lie, and it's in Hansard.
www.theyworkforyou.com/pbc/2024-25/...
www.theyworkforyou.com/pbc/2024-25/...
October 23, 2025 at 9:31 PM
Oh wait, it turns out this was a straightforward lie, and it's in Hansard.
www.theyworkforyou.com/pbc/2024-25/...
www.theyworkforyou.com/pbc/2024-25/...
Absolutely right.
But then he needs to say that the government's *own* proposals on ILR won't do exactly that -as I said back in May.
But then he needs to say that the government's *own* proposals on ILR won't do exactly that -as I said back in May.
October 23, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Absolutely right.
But then he needs to say that the government's *own* proposals on ILR won't do exactly that -as I said back in May.
But then he needs to say that the government's *own* proposals on ILR won't do exactly that -as I said back in May.
Brexit, productivity and why Reeves' comments are both correct and uncontroversial among economists.
www.cityam.com/is-brexit-re...
www.cityam.com/is-brexit-re...
October 23, 2025 at 10:34 AM
Brexit, productivity and why Reeves' comments are both correct and uncontroversial among economists.
www.cityam.com/is-brexit-re...
www.cityam.com/is-brexit-re...
Reminder that back in July Katie Lam wrote an article for the Sun on Indefinite Leave to Remain and the Conservatives' proposals.
It contained a number of blatant lies and the Sun published a detailed retraction.
It contained a number of blatant lies and the Sun published a detailed retraction.
October 22, 2025 at 8:41 AM
Reminder that back in July Katie Lam wrote an article for the Sun on Indefinite Leave to Remain and the Conservatives' proposals.
It contained a number of blatant lies and the Sun published a detailed retraction.
It contained a number of blatant lies and the Sun published a detailed retraction.
Via @sundersays.bsky.social the Conservatives' draft legislation - absolutely clear that it applies to (and is intended to apply to) legal permanent residents claiming state pension (on the basis of their contributions) or child benefit for British kids.
publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbi...
publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbi...
October 22, 2025 at 6:40 AM
Via @sundersays.bsky.social the Conservatives' draft legislation - absolutely clear that it applies to (and is intended to apply to) legal permanent residents claiming state pension (on the basis of their contributions) or child benefit for British kids.
publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbi...
publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbi...
Here Lam explicitly sets out her proposal - which is official Conservative Party policy - to deport long-standing legal permanent residents who have *ever* claimed any benefit, including the state pension or child benefit (even if the child is British), or who earn less than £39K.
October 21, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Here Lam explicitly sets out her proposal - which is official Conservative Party policy - to deport long-standing legal permanent residents who have *ever* claimed any benefit, including the state pension or child benefit (even if the child is British), or who earn less than £39K.
Interesting to compare ONS figures on public sector net debt released today (left) with those released a year ago.
Then it was 98% of GDP and rising
Now it is 95% of GDP and rising
If we carry on borrowing like this we will have paid off the debt by 2060! 😉
Then it was 98% of GDP and rising
Now it is 95% of GDP and rising
If we carry on borrowing like this we will have paid off the debt by 2060! 😉
October 21, 2025 at 7:44 AM
Interesting to compare ONS figures on public sector net debt released today (left) with those released a year ago.
Then it was 98% of GDP and rising
Now it is 95% of GDP and rising
If we carry on borrowing like this we will have paid off the debt by 2060! 😉
Then it was 98% of GDP and rising
Now it is 95% of GDP and rising
If we carry on borrowing like this we will have paid off the debt by 2060! 😉