Jonathan Portes
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jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes
@jdportes.bsky.social
63K followers 630 following 4.8K posts

Professor of Economics and Public Policy, King's College London; Senior Fellow, UK in a Changing Europe. Immigration, economics, public policy. Personal views only; usual disclaimers apply.

Books: Immigration (Sage), Capitalism (Quercus)
.. more

Videos

Jonathan Daniel Portes is a professor of Economics and Public Policy at the School of Politics & Economics of King's College, London and a senior fellow at UK in a Changing Europe.

Source: Wikipedia
Political science 31%
Economics 28%
Posts Replies Media Videos

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Ben H. Ansell, Nandita Sharma , and 5 more

dsquareddigest.bsky.social
Dan Davies @dsquareddigest.bsky.social · 16h
"tell me we didn't just fire a dozen $500,000 missiles at a $200 camel"

"sir, no evidence of any camel present, sir!"

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Mel Bartley, Lesley A. Hall , and 2 more

stephenkb.bsky.social
Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 20h
Good interview in the paper, this. I think Sadiq is right: London 'needs' to be less successful than it is for a bunch of political arguments here in the UK to work, hence the fictions being invented about it:
Populists attack London because it is ‘progressive and successful’, says Sadiq Khan
Rightwing attacks on one of the world’s most visited cities at odds with reality, says mayor
www.ft.com

jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 23h
Now I want to watch this! Daniel Craig! William Boyd!

www.theguardian.com/media/2001/j...
Interview: Daniel Craig, star of Sword of Honour
Any adaptation of Evelyn Waugh inevitably evokes images of aristocratic languor, Brideshead-style. But Sword Of Honour, a Channel 4 two-parter, is a far grittier affair. Mark Morris spoke to its down-...
www.theguardian.com

jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 1d
Evelyn Waugh?

jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 1d
the £800m for the tapestry is clearly just an arbitrary number agreed as part of a valuation - but for "ordinary" loans there is supposed to be a normal valuation (eg looking at recent auction prices for same artist)

jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 1d
Yes - this is a govt-to-govt deal first and foremost so the insurance provisions probably agreed as part of that.

But for "normal" exhibitions - eg the recent Van Gogh at the National - easy to see how it would be simply uneconomic without GIS..

jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 1d
It's a contingent liability. There's a regular report (Arts Council administer the scheme). About £10-20bn a year I think. But claims are very small indeed (a few hundred K)

jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 1d
[in this case, the insurance is I suspect more about paying for the costs of restoration in the case of any damage, not replacement. ]

jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 1d
not really! HMT provides the insurance for free, so the BM doesn't have to. HMT is on the hook here.

But it's good value for HMT since otherwise they would have to fund national museums more, and the HMT guarantee has rarely (perhaps never?) been called, since museums are *very* careful,

jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 1d
he showed up in my mentions more than 2 years ago defending Matt Goodwin against me/Rob Ford, so I think this is just a transition from thinly veiled white nationalism to not-at-all veiled.

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

writersofcolour.bsky.social
Media Diversified @writersofcolour.bsky.social · 2d
This Christmas, if you have the means, please give what you can to a spotlight campaign @ gaza funds to directly support families in Gaza. These donations work to help everyone, not just the people with the biggest social media followings.

gazafunds.com

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

writersofcolour.bsky.social
Media Diversified @writersofcolour.bsky.social · 2d
This Christmas, please #KeepEyesOnSudan.
The war has caused over 150,000 deaths and displaced over 12 million people. The United Arab Emirates is bankrolling the genocide.

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Jonathan Hopkin

henrymance.ft.com
Henry Mance @henrymance.ft.com · 2d
can't they even give this woke nonsense a rest at Christmas? www.theguardian.com/world/2025/d...
Pope Leo calls for kindness to strangers and the poor in Christmas message
Refusing to help those in need is tantamount to rejecting God himself, says pontiff during Christmas Eve mass
www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

news.rte.ie
RTÉ News @news.rte.ie · 2d
Israel has reacted furiously to a condemnation by 14 countries including Ireland, France and Britain of its approval of new settlements in the occupied West Bank, calling the criticism discriminatory against Jews
www.rte.ie/news/middle-east/2025/1225/1550505-west-bank/
Condemnation of new West Bank settlements 'wrong' - Saar
Israel has reacted furiously to a condemnation by 14 countries including Ireland, France and Britain of its approval of new settlements in the occupied West Bank, calling the criticism discriminatory ...
www.rte.ie

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

nickwhithorn.bsky.social
Nicholas Whithorn @nickwhithorn.bsky.social · 2d
116 people have drowned after a boat carrying migrants sank off the coast of Tunisia. One survivor was rescued by a fishing boat.
Sea Watch: "116 morti in un naufragio nel canale di Sicilia: l'unico sopravvissuto salvato da un pescatore tunisino"
Lo ha reso noto la Ong a in un post su X, rilanciando la segnalazione di Alarm Phone
www.lasicilia.it

jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 2d
[if you want to read my paper with SWL above, and explain why the fiscal rules we propose are wrong/unnecessary, and how govts should set fiscal policy in an alternative framework, fine. Otherwise, I shan't waste my time further.]

jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 2d
If you google "Jonathan Portes default" this is what you get.

Why should I engage seriously with someone who just makes stuff up/can't be bothered to do 2 seconds research?

www.google.com/search?q=jon...
Google Search
www.google.com

jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 2d
sure, if you enjoy the accounting, fine, but they then - as I said - end up with dreadful economics/policy.

bsky.app/profile/jdpo...
jdportes.bsky.social Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 7d
2. But when it comes to economics/policy, it's either vacuous or wrong. See this. Of course it wasn't about "solvency risk"! Who said that? Not me or any other serious economist. But it *was* about crazy fiscal policy (as well as the LDI stuff). This is where MMT meets Trussonomics. Not serious

jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 2d
Once again, I find it very difficult to take seriously anyone who jumps from "there is no pure default risk on fiat currency" to "there is no economic case for fiscal rules/targeting debt/deficits". SWL wrote about this a decade ago

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10....
onlinelibrary.wiley.com

jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 2d
??? That makes no sense at all. The theoretical justification for govts aiming at some version of current balance is not based on the possibility that the government could default.

jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 2d
[I was asked to comment on the article referenced in the thread. I pointed out that the passage I screenshot explicitly denies the existence of a fiscal constraint in the context of the Truss budget. If you agree that that's disingenous/BS, then fine.]

jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 2d
"We need gilts for inflation management" is simply a way of saying that there *is* a meaningful fiscal constraint; if the govt borrows "too much" [or can't/doesn't want to borrow and prints instead] there will be serious adverse consequences.

jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 3d
Albeit not quite as niche as the watermelon shop on Caledonian Raid.. 😉

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

mariaabreu.bsky.social
Maria Abreu @mariaabreu.bsky.social · 3d
Wonderful article, just lovely.
reporterrwright.ft.com Robert Wright @reporterrwright.ft.com · 3d
I've been aware for a while of the work by faith and other community groups to support people seeking asylum. So I asked the @refugeecouncil.bsky.social where there was really vigorous community support. They said Northallerton. Here's what I found when I went there: as.ft.com/r/b3449fbd-3...
‘A place of welcome’: Yorkshire town rallies round to help asylum seekers
[FREE TO READ] Churches and community groups in Northallerton provide food, clothing and company for refugee families
as.ft.com

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Steve Peers, Maria Abreu

reporterrwright.ft.com
Robert Wright @reporterrwright.ft.com · 3d
I've been aware for a while of the work by faith and other community groups to support people seeking asylum. So I asked the @refugeecouncil.bsky.social where there was really vigorous community support. They said Northallerton. Here's what I found when I went there: as.ft.com/r/b3449fbd-3...
‘A place of welcome’: Yorkshire town rallies round to help asylum seekers
[FREE TO READ] Churches and community groups in Northallerton provide food, clothing and company for refugee families
as.ft.com

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

zoejardiniere.bsky.social
Zoe Gardner @zoejardiniere.bsky.social · 3d
👀👀👀 CHECK IT OUT!

All donations to @calaisappeal.bsky.social are being DOUBLED RIGHT NOW!! 🤩🤩

Double your impact today! www.justgiving.com/campaign/tog...
Screen shot confirming donations are being doubled!

jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 3d
"The important question is not whether a genocide has been taking place in Gaza, but how it happened and how it was allowed to happen."

brunomacaes.substack.com/p/gaza-the-r...

@brunomacaes.bsky.social
Gaza: The Reckoning
The debate on whether Israel’s actions in Gaza constitute a genocide is now closed, and has been closed for a while.
brunomacaes.substack.com

jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 3d
Q: How do you expect the Trump administration’s policies to affect the economic outlook in your region and the global economy in 2025?
Trump’s actual policies are very unclear, so predictions/forecasts are very difficult. Fortunately, most UK exports to the US are services and aren’t vulnerable to tariffs, so in the short-term the impact may be relatively limited, with stronger US demand offsetting the impact of any tariffs. Of more concern is the impact of irresponsible (or worse) fiscal policy on long-term interest rates, although on balance this is unlikely to materialise in 2025.” Assessment: In terms of the direct impact of Trump’s policies on the UK, this seems accurate for 2025: relatively limited. The long-term threat to the UK (and other advanced economies/liberal democracies) of the Trump administration’s toxic cocktail of economic illiteracy, rampant corruption, and attempt to export far-right/white nationalist ideology is, however, considerably worse than I anticipated then.

jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 3d
What I got wrong/right in 2025:

Q:Will Rachel Reeves need to raise taxes again in 2025?

“If short-term economic prospects worsen, raising taxes would be precisely the wrong response"

Assessment: Clearly wrong (although Budget doesn’t raise taxes in 2025 or 2026-27)

ukandeu.ac.uk/marking-myse...
Marking myself to market: my forecasts for 2025 - UK in a changing Europe
Jonathan Portes looks back on the predictions he made about the UK economy at the start of 2024 and assesses what he got right and wrong.
ukandeu.ac.uk

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

yairwallach.bsky.social
Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social · 4d
My position on the debate on "From the River to the Sea" is that it should start with the party that is actually advancing this vision not only through chants but also through genocide and ethnic cleansing - the current Israeli government.