Will Stancil
@whstancil.bsky.social
Minnesota guy.
"This particular activist will not stop." Sen. Chris Murphy
"This particular activist will not stop." Sen. Chris Murphy
Reposted by Will Stancil
Maybe right here where you said high egg and milk prices are driving (nonexistent) inflation sectorwide? This was an hour ago ?
bsky.app/profile/kate...
bsky.app/profile/kate...
But also milk and eggs are used in the processing of many types of foods, so more expensive milk and eggs drives up other food costs as well. Including at restaurants.
February 15, 2026 at 7:37 PM
Maybe right here where you said high egg and milk prices are driving (nonexistent) inflation sectorwide? This was an hour ago ?
bsky.app/profile/kate...
bsky.app/profile/kate...
Reposted by Will Stancil
Your thesis that everyone notices changes in egg/milk prices is kinda undercut by your seeming lack of awareness that egg prices are down dramatically and milk prices have been flat for four years.
www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/02/...
www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/02/...
February 15, 2026 at 6:51 PM
Your thesis that everyone notices changes in egg/milk prices is kinda undercut by your seeming lack of awareness that egg prices are down dramatically and milk prices have been flat for four years.
www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/02/...
www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/02/...
There are very few things I believe more strongly than this:
If you orient your politics around things that you know are not true, or don’t care if are true, whether because it sounds good, or you think it’ll impress people, or any other reason, you are planting the seeds of your own destruction.
If you orient your politics around things that you know are not true, or don’t care if are true, whether because it sounds good, or you think it’ll impress people, or any other reason, you are planting the seeds of your own destruction.
February 15, 2026 at 10:07 PM
There are very few things I believe more strongly than this:
If you orient your politics around things that you know are not true, or don’t care if are true, whether because it sounds good, or you think it’ll impress people, or any other reason, you are planting the seeds of your own destruction.
If you orient your politics around things that you know are not true, or don’t care if are true, whether because it sounds good, or you think it’ll impress people, or any other reason, you are planting the seeds of your own destruction.
Reposted by Will Stancil
The vibecession was primarily driven by lower sentiment among the upper and middle classes, not the lower classes.
February 15, 2026 at 9:13 PM
The vibecession was primarily driven by lower sentiment among the upper and middle classes, not the lower classes.
Reposted by Will Stancil
That a lot of the story of 2024 is the American *consumer* class going Kalecki is really important and something we need to deal with; instead of pretending something more convenient happened.
February 15, 2026 at 8:43 PM
That a lot of the story of 2024 is the American *consumer* class going Kalecki is really important and something we need to deal with; instead of pretending something more convenient happened.
Progressives: “Sure, we were completely wrong that improving the station of working-class people would result in electoral gains, but that’s just because, on a deeper level, we were correct that everyone is furious about wealth inequality”
America: *elects a billionaire backed by Elon Musk*
America: *elects a billionaire backed by Elon Musk*
Can we please stop with this argument?
It wasn’t a “vibecession,” it was people seeing how comparatively better the wealthy were doing than they were. It always comes back to the wealth gap and the fact that productivity gains have disproportionately flowed upward.
It wasn’t a “vibecession,” it was people seeing how comparatively better the wealthy were doing than they were. It always comes back to the wealth gap and the fact that productivity gains have disproportionately flowed upward.
Allow me to suggest that lying to yourself about what actually happened - the working class did great 2021-24 - is a great way to keep walking into the same traps!!
February 15, 2026 at 9:55 PM
Progressives: “Sure, we were completely wrong that improving the station of working-class people would result in electoral gains, but that’s just because, on a deeper level, we were correct that everyone is furious about wealth inequality”
America: *elects a billionaire backed by Elon Musk*
America: *elects a billionaire backed by Elon Musk*
Reposted by Will Stancil
Idk ”whether it’s true or not” feels like an extremely vital question to answer if AOC has any interest in her presidency avoiding the exact same fate as Biden’s
February 15, 2026 at 9:42 PM
Idk ”whether it’s true or not” feels like an extremely vital question to answer if AOC has any interest in her presidency avoiding the exact same fate as Biden’s
“We should keep doing the thing that doesn’t work, because accurately describing the problem feels uncomfortable”
whether it's true or not this is a losing argument
Allow me to suggest that lying to yourself about what actually happened - the working class did great 2021-24 - is a great way to keep walking into the same traps!!
February 15, 2026 at 9:48 PM
“We should keep doing the thing that doesn’t work, because accurately describing the problem feels uncomfortable”
Allow me to suggest that lying to yourself about what actually happened - the working class did great 2021-24 - is a great way to keep walking into the same traps!!
AOC on why Trump returned to office: "when you have economic stagnation, for the working class that, especially in an environment where GDP is growing, that is the stuff of populist movement. The choice is what direction those populist movements can go."
February 15, 2026 at 9:23 PM
Allow me to suggest that lying to yourself about what actually happened - the working class did great 2021-24 - is a great way to keep walking into the same traps!!
Reposted by Will Stancil
But we didn't have economic stagnation for the working class. We had a period of unusually *high* wage growth for low income workers.
February 15, 2026 at 8:38 PM
But we didn't have economic stagnation for the working class. We had a period of unusually *high* wage growth for low income workers.
This is insane. It’s not some kind of character test for you. The point is that most people, poor and otherwise, aren’t tracking their personal finances precisely - this is well-known, extremely established fact - and as a result are unable to reliably notice very small aggregate changes in price.
Will Stancil again at it with his “You’re not poor if you’re not carefully counting every penny” and pretending that definition isn’t a political choice.
I am beyond over the Economic Despair Doomers, who talk to you like you're some kind of silver-spoon aristocrat if you dare notice that the vast majority of Americans are not poor, not starving, not carefully counting every single penny that leaves their bank account. They're just lying constantly
February 15, 2026 at 8:41 PM
This is insane. It’s not some kind of character test for you. The point is that most people, poor and otherwise, aren’t tracking their personal finances precisely - this is well-known, extremely established fact - and as a result are unable to reliably notice very small aggregate changes in price.
Reposted by Will Stancil
I think what’s funny to me here is that people make up really specific-sounding shit (“I eat one egg a day and would notice if it went up by 2%”) and then call Stancil pedantic when he does the math problem *they literally created to sound rigorous.*
If you're eating one egg a day, a 2% increase in egg costs raises your egg spending by about two dollars annually. You'd notice this?
Food is my largest expense after rent, healthcare, child support, and car expenses. I would absolutely notice a 2% increase in egg costs.
February 15, 2026 at 7:12 PM
I think what’s funny to me here is that people make up really specific-sounding shit (“I eat one egg a day and would notice if it went up by 2%”) and then call Stancil pedantic when he does the math problem *they literally created to sound rigorous.*
Again I don’t really understand why being realistic about household financial behavior makes someone into a Richie Rich neoliberal or whatever. Is the leftist view that all people are perfectly rational economic actors carefully charting annual spending on each individual good?
Will Stancil gets his opinions about the poors from the Wall Street Journal, which believes single moms with two kids make $260,000 a year including $35,000 in investment income.
February 15, 2026 at 8:38 PM
Again I don’t really understand why being realistic about household financial behavior makes someone into a Richie Rich neoliberal or whatever. Is the leftist view that all people are perfectly rational economic actors carefully charting annual spending on each individual good?
Reposted by Will Stancil
Average annual spending on eggs is $50/year.
February 15, 2026 at 6:29 PM
Average annual spending on eggs is $50/year.
A bigger part of it is that lots of people who go to the store and don’t think too closely about how much they’re spending then go on the internet and pretend they’re destitute for social cachet
I think a big part of it is that none of us here who actually are living comfortably are ever tweeting "went to the grocery store today and didn't really have to think about how much I was spending" because we'd be assholes if we did that amidst a sea of retweeted gofundme's
February 15, 2026 at 6:22 PM
A bigger part of it is that lots of people who go to the store and don’t think too closely about how much they’re spending then go on the internet and pretend they’re destitute for social cachet
My point is that prices fluctuate up and down a lot in any economy, and since very few people have a good way to determine aggregate price changes, what they’re actually going to do is adopt a narrative from media and secondary sources and then cherry-pick a few changes as “evidence” it’s true
U.S. drivers spend less than 2% of their disposable income on gasoline and that’s a perennial topic. I really have no idea what your point is that people shouldn’t notice when their costs go up?
February 15, 2026 at 6:11 PM
My point is that prices fluctuate up and down a lot in any economy, and since very few people have a good way to determine aggregate price changes, what they’re actually going to do is adopt a narrative from media and secondary sources and then cherry-pick a few changes as “evidence” it’s true
I don't understand how "you aren't everyone" is such a difficult concept for some folks
February 15, 2026 at 5:50 PM
I don't understand how "you aren't everyone" is such a difficult concept for some folks
Reposted by Will Stancil
This is why people routinely describe their own grocery bills with estimated price increases ludicrously higher than what actual grocery inflation is, have other people take them seriously, and no one notice this unto itself is proof they can't detect actual inflation rates from personal shopping.
February 15, 2026 at 5:23 PM
This is why people routinely describe their own grocery bills with estimated price increases ludicrously higher than what actual grocery inflation is, have other people take them seriously, and no one notice this unto itself is proof they can't detect actual inflation rates from personal shopping.
If you're eating one egg a day, a 2% increase in egg costs raises your egg spending by about two dollars annually. You'd notice this?
Food is my largest expense after rent, healthcare, child support, and car expenses. I would absolutely notice a 2% increase in egg costs.
February 15, 2026 at 5:12 PM
If you're eating one egg a day, a 2% increase in egg costs raises your egg spending by about two dollars annually. You'd notice this?
Again, the contrast between professionals who actually deal with consumer spending, and Very Online Communists, is striking. The communists are like "people are ultra-rational utility maximizers" and the professionals are like "people will forget how much money they make and buy a boat"
I'm a financial advisor.
Humans are *very bad* at tracking, contextualizing, and understanding spending.
Like 80%+ of my clients who claim to live "paycheck to paycheck" have also immediately upgraded [car/house/electronics] significantly after minor pay increases.
Humans are *very bad* at tracking, contextualizing, and understanding spending.
Like 80%+ of my clients who claim to live "paycheck to paycheck" have also immediately upgraded [car/house/electronics] significantly after minor pay increases.
February 15, 2026 at 5:08 PM
Again, the contrast between professionals who actually deal with consumer spending, and Very Online Communists, is striking. The communists are like "people are ultra-rational utility maximizers" and the professionals are like "people will forget how much money they make and buy a boat"
Indeed, while internet communists are busy pretending that Americans carefully weigh every dollar they spend, the private market wrings billions of dollars out of our pockets by understanding that this is not how real human beings work at all and much of our spending is impulsive and unconsidered.
You know who else knows this very obvious fact? In fact they know it so well they exploit it every chance they get? Grocery stores like Walmart, Kroger, Dollar General, and other similar regional chains.
February 15, 2026 at 4:53 PM
Indeed, while internet communists are busy pretending that Americans carefully weigh every dollar they spend, the private market wrings billions of dollars out of our pockets by understanding that this is not how real human beings work at all and much of our spending is impulsive and unconsidered.
Yeah, it's perverse. Nobody wants to admit that few people closely budget it would be taken as an admission that THEY don't budget.
Likewise, nobody wants to admit that the average American isn't desperately poor because it would be taken as an admission that they aren't desperately poor.
Likewise, nobody wants to admit that the average American isn't desperately poor because it would be taken as an admission that they aren't desperately poor.
in seriousness, I think it's at least partially because people feel like they *should* be doing this and do not want to publicly admit that they don't, even though as you say approximately nobody does
February 15, 2026 at 4:47 PM
Yeah, it's perverse. Nobody wants to admit that few people closely budget it would be taken as an admission that THEY don't budget.
Likewise, nobody wants to admit that the average American isn't desperately poor because it would be taken as an admission that they aren't desperately poor.
Likewise, nobody wants to admit that the average American isn't desperately poor because it would be taken as an admission that they aren't desperately poor.
I know in the Dickensian phantasmagoria of the online left, everyone in America is carefully budgeting their last spare nickel to afford bread for the week, but in real world, a substantial number of people literally don't even know their annual income
Every time I ask someone if they even know what they spend annually, most cannot tell me.
America is filled with this contradiction.
America is filled with this contradiction.
February 15, 2026 at 4:43 PM
I know in the Dickensian phantasmagoria of the online left, everyone in America is carefully budgeting their last spare nickel to afford bread for the week, but in real world, a substantial number of people literally don't even know their annual income
Barely anyone does! This is normal! Almost all real "budgets" are people saying "Feels a little tight this month, gonna heat some leftovers tonight." People are not sitting down with spreadsheets tracking every penny. It's just not a common thing! Why are we pretending it is!
Now I feel like a loser because i never budget for food. I like avoid eating out more than once a week but that is it.
February 15, 2026 at 4:38 PM
Barely anyone does! This is normal! Almost all real "budgets" are people saying "Feels a little tight this month, gonna heat some leftovers tonight." People are not sitting down with spreadsheets tracking every penny. It's just not a common thing! Why are we pretending it is!