The Upshot
@upshot.nytimes.com
Data, charts, analysis and games from The New York Times: nytimes.com/upshot
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“What happens if everyone who is Hispanic thinks they’re at risk?” The small town of Wilder, Idaho, prided itself on comity between its white farmers and growing Hispanic population, but a federal immigration raid has undermined the town’s sense of security. nyti.ms/4qu0Fcq
February 9, 2026 at 9:30 PM
“What happens if everyone who is Hispanic thinks they’re at risk?” The small town of Wilder, Idaho, prided itself on comity between its white farmers and growing Hispanic population, but a federal immigration raid has undermined the town’s sense of security. nyti.ms/4qu0Fcq
From NYT Health:
"We want to hear from readers who are trying to manage their medical bills and their health insurance costs."
Gift link:
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/09/h...
"We want to hear from readers who are trying to manage their medical bills and their health insurance costs."
Gift link:
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/09/h...
How Are Health Care Costs Affecting You?
www.nytimes.com
February 9, 2026 at 10:24 PM
From NYT Health:
"We want to hear from readers who are trying to manage their medical bills and their health insurance costs."
Gift link:
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/09/h...
"We want to hear from readers who are trying to manage their medical bills and their health insurance costs."
Gift link:
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/09/h...
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This finding is a few years old now but relevant again after Bad Bunny's all-Spanish Super Bowl performance:
In 2024, only around half of White Trump supporters (48%) said they were comfortable with people speaking a language other than English in public: www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
In 2024, only around half of White Trump supporters (48%) said they were comfortable with people speaking a language other than English in public: www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
February 9, 2026 at 9:38 PM
This finding is a few years old now but relevant again after Bad Bunny's all-Spanish Super Bowl performance:
In 2024, only around half of White Trump supporters (48%) said they were comfortable with people speaking a language other than English in public: www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
In 2024, only around half of White Trump supporters (48%) said they were comfortable with people speaking a language other than English in public: www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
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From @theathletic.com: After President Trump called the Olympian Hunter Hess “a real loser” over the skier’s comments about representing the U.S., two of the biggest Olympic stars have spoken out in a Games that is becoming ever more politically charged.
Chloe Kim, Eileen Gu speak out after President Trump calls Olympian ‘a loser’
Two of the biggest stars of these Olympics were asked for their thoughts on President Trump's comments on Hunter Hess.
nyti.ms
February 9, 2026 at 7:17 PM
From @theathletic.com: After President Trump called the Olympian Hunter Hess “a real loser” over the skier’s comments about representing the U.S., two of the biggest Olympic stars have spoken out in a Games that is becoming ever more politically charged.
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New this week: I wrote about the incredible drop in carjackings in America over the last 3 years. There were nearly as many carjackings in New Orleans in January 2022 (53) as occurred in all of 2025 (57). It's a trend happening pretty much everywhere with data.
jasher.substack.com/p/carjacking...
jasher.substack.com/p/carjacking...
Carjackings Have Fallen An Incredible Amount
Each December I do a presentation for a group known as the New Orleans Regional Leadership Institute (NORLI).
jasher.substack.com
February 9, 2026 at 1:04 PM
New this week: I wrote about the incredible drop in carjackings in America over the last 3 years. There were nearly as many carjackings in New Orleans in January 2022 (53) as occurred in all of 2025 (57). It's a trend happening pretty much everywhere with data.
jasher.substack.com/p/carjacking...
jasher.substack.com/p/carjacking...
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30+ states have now adopted policies to boost housing production. Which means exciting opportunities for researchers to study these policies' effectiveness. Some guidance from me, via @niskanencenter.bsky.social, on how to design good state policy evaluations:
www.niskanencenter.org/how-to-evalu...
www.niskanencenter.org/how-to-evalu...
How to evaluate state pro-housing policies: Mind the empirical pitfalls - Niskanen Center
As more state legislatures become laboratories of housing policy experimentation, social science researchers have once-in-a-generation opportunities to evaluate how pro-housing policies are working in...
www.niskanencenter.org
February 9, 2026 at 7:42 PM
30+ states have now adopted policies to boost housing production. Which means exciting opportunities for researchers to study these policies' effectiveness. Some guidance from me, via @niskanencenter.bsky.social, on how to design good state policy evaluations:
www.niskanencenter.org/how-to-evalu...
www.niskanencenter.org/how-to-evalu...
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The 2025 Seattle Seahawks overcame 60-to-1 preseason odds to win the Super Bowl
They are one of the most unlikely championship teams in US pro team sports
They are one of the most unlikely championship teams in US pro team sports
February 9, 2026 at 4:08 AM
The 2025 Seattle Seahawks overcame 60-to-1 preseason odds to win the Super Bowl
They are one of the most unlikely championship teams in US pro team sports
They are one of the most unlikely championship teams in US pro team sports
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“He’s sassing. He’s smiling. The liberation of a conscience does wonders for a man,” Frank Bruni writes about Republican Senator Thom Tillis.
Opinion | The Glorious Spectacle of a Republican Gone Rogue
Thom Tillis vs. the Trump administration.
nyti.ms
February 9, 2026 at 4:51 PM
“He’s sassing. He’s smiling. The liberation of a conscience does wonders for a man,” Frank Bruni writes about Republican Senator Thom Tillis.
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“There is a big hole in the seductively simple argument that Mr. Trump’s policy will push employers to hire Americans: For many jobs, the cheaper and more likely replacement is a robot,” Binyamin Appelbaum writes.
Opinion | Trump Wants More Jobs for Americans. He’s Getting More Robots Instead.
There is a hole in the argument that American workers will replace immigrants. For many jobs, the cheaper and more likely replacement is a robot.
nyti.ms
February 9, 2026 at 5:54 PM
“There is a big hole in the seductively simple argument that Mr. Trump’s policy will push employers to hire Americans: For many jobs, the cheaper and more likely replacement is a robot,” Binyamin Appelbaum writes.
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"Currently, White evangelicals are the only large religious group in which a clear majority approve of Trump’s job performance."
New @pewresearch.org analysis looks at Trump's job approval rating among major US religious groups: www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
New @pewresearch.org analysis looks at Trump's job approval rating among major US religious groups: www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
February 9, 2026 at 7:21 PM
"Currently, White evangelicals are the only large religious group in which a clear majority approve of Trump’s job performance."
New @pewresearch.org analysis looks at Trump's job approval rating among major US religious groups: www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
New @pewresearch.org analysis looks at Trump's job approval rating among major US religious groups: www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
Trump said he wanted to drive housing prices up, not down, but sky-high property values create their own kind of instability. Via @conordougherty.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/04/b...
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/04/b...
Voters Say Housing Prices Are Too High. Trump Wants Them Higher.
www.nytimes.com
February 9, 2026 at 7:17 PM
Trump said he wanted to drive housing prices up, not down, but sky-high property values create their own kind of instability. Via @conordougherty.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/04/b...
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/04/b...
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News Analysis: Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s first female prime minister, harnessed her personal popularity to save the Liberal Democratic Party. But she has not yet addressed its deeper challenges.
How Japan’s Leader, Sanae Takaichi, Rescued Her Party from the Abyss
Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s first female prime minister, harnessed her personal popularity and a shift to the right among voters to achieve a record election win.
nyti.ms
February 9, 2026 at 2:10 PM
News Analysis: Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s first female prime minister, harnessed her personal popularity to save the Liberal Democratic Party. But she has not yet addressed its deeper challenges.
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The bone-chilling cold that has blasted much of the Eastern U.S. since mid-January will finally begin to ease this week, with temperatures expected to increase by around 10 degrees on Monday, and 10 more on Tuesday, forecasters said.
Respite From Wind-Driven, Bone-Chilling Cold Weather Is in Sight
Wind chills below zero were expected to persist across parts of the Northeast and New England on Monday but should finally ease, forecasters said.
nyti.ms
February 9, 2026 at 1:55 PM
The bone-chilling cold that has blasted much of the Eastern U.S. since mid-January will finally begin to ease this week, with temperatures expected to increase by around 10 degrees on Monday, and 10 more on Tuesday, forecasters said.
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“The brutality of U.S.A.I.D.’s closure and the disregard for the human toll betrayed a vision of a crueler, meaner, more insular world — one in which America aspires not to any pretense of moral leadership but simply to naked power,” writes Jeremy Konyndyk, the president of Refugees International.
Opinion | The Demise of U.S.A.I.D. Was a Warning
The brutality of U.S.A.I.D.’s closure and the disregard for the human toll betrayed a vision of a crueler, meaner, more insular world.
nyti.ms
February 8, 2026 at 9:00 AM
“The brutality of U.S.A.I.D.’s closure and the disregard for the human toll betrayed a vision of a crueler, meaner, more insular world — one in which America aspires not to any pretense of moral leadership but simply to naked power,” writes Jeremy Konyndyk, the president of Refugees International.
Reposted by The Upshot
Our latest economic polling finds...
Large majorities saying it's harder to buy home, get good job, or raise family than it was for prior generations
Most see growing income gap, less opportunity for middle class
U.S. job market ratings still underwater
More here: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
Large majorities saying it's harder to buy home, get good job, or raise family than it was for prior generations
Most see growing income gap, less opportunity for middle class
U.S. job market ratings still underwater
More here: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
February 5, 2026 at 10:21 PM
Our latest economic polling finds...
Large majorities saying it's harder to buy home, get good job, or raise family than it was for prior generations
Most see growing income gap, less opportunity for middle class
U.S. job market ratings still underwater
More here: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
Large majorities saying it's harder to buy home, get good job, or raise family than it was for prior generations
Most see growing income gap, less opportunity for middle class
U.S. job market ratings still underwater
More here: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
Reposted by The Upshot
The GOP just had its best chance to finally flip a legislative seat in Trump 2.0. Democrats had other ideas.
Chasity Martinez just won a rural Trump+13 in the Louisiana House in a 24-point landslide—an overperformance of 37 points.
Our complete writeup on this remarkable outcome -->
Chasity Martinez just won a rural Trump+13 in the Louisiana House in a 24-point landslide—an overperformance of 37 points.
Our complete writeup on this remarkable outcome -->
Breaking: Democrats resoundingly defend red district in Louisiana, denying GOP its first pickup
Republicans have yet to flip a single legislative seat since Trump's return
www.the-downballot.com
February 8, 2026 at 3:16 AM
The GOP just had its best chance to finally flip a legislative seat in Trump 2.0. Democrats had other ideas.
Chasity Martinez just won a rural Trump+13 in the Louisiana House in a 24-point landslide—an overperformance of 37 points.
Our complete writeup on this remarkable outcome -->
Chasity Martinez just won a rural Trump+13 in the Louisiana House in a 24-point landslide—an overperformance of 37 points.
Our complete writeup on this remarkable outcome -->
Reposted by The Upshot
Another case of Election Day being much bluer than the EV
Martinez (D) won EV by 11, currently winning eday by 34 with 9 precincts to go
Martinez (D) won EV by 11, currently winning eday by 34 with 9 precincts to go
February 8, 2026 at 3:02 AM
Another case of Election Day being much bluer than the EV
Martinez (D) won EV by 11, currently winning eday by 34 with 9 precincts to go
Martinez (D) won EV by 11, currently winning eday by 34 with 9 precincts to go
Reposted by The Upshot
This looks to be an extraordinary overperformance for Dems. With more than three-fourth of the vote in, the Dem leads by more than 20%.
February 8, 2026 at 2:57 AM
This looks to be an extraordinary overperformance for Dems. With more than three-fourth of the vote in, the Dem leads by more than 20%.
Reposted by The Upshot
For obvious reasons, this district presented Republicans with their best shot at a flip since Trump’s return. Looks like they are falling well short.
We’re looking at another very big Dem overperformance tonight—in a Trump+13 district. Dem Chasity Martinez is up 61-39 with more than half the vote in. Notably, like in TX last weekend, the e-day vote has been even *better* for her than the early vote. voterportal.sos.la.gov/graphical
February 8, 2026 at 2:52 AM
For obvious reasons, this district presented Republicans with their best shot at a flip since Trump’s return. Looks like they are falling well short.
Reposted by The Upshot
In those three precincts, the Democrat (Chasity Martinez) is outrunning Harris's margins by 41, 41, and 10 points respectively.
That 10 point overperformance is in a majority-Black precinct that already backed Harris by 80.
bsky.app/profile/purr...
That 10 point overperformance is in a majority-Black precinct that already backed Harris by 80.
bsky.app/profile/purr...
We have election day votes!
February 8, 2026 at 2:33 AM
In those three precincts, the Democrat (Chasity Martinez) is outrunning Harris's margins by 41, 41, and 10 points respectively.
That 10 point overperformance is in a majority-Black precinct that already backed Harris by 80.
bsky.app/profile/purr...
That 10 point overperformance is in a majority-Black precinct that already backed Harris by 80.
bsky.app/profile/purr...
Reposted by The Upshot
This is happening in Sunset Park as well. Local librarian tells me many fewer families are coming in. Businesses are suffering. The streetscape is a little less vibrant. It’s absolutely heartbreaking and enraging. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/07/o...
Opinion | It’s Quieter Now. People Are Afraid.
www.nytimes.com
February 8, 2026 at 2:21 AM
This is happening in Sunset Park as well. Local librarian tells me many fewer families are coming in. Businesses are suffering. The streetscape is a little less vibrant. It’s absolutely heartbreaking and enraging. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/07/o...
Reposted by The Upshot
In this week’s newsletter, I visualized The Post’s losses, Bezos’s net worth — and how much that net worth has increased each day since he bought the paper.
(That and a lot more, all for free!)
(That and a lot more, all for free!)
Let's consider some disasters.
It has been quite a week in quite a month in quite a year in quite a decade, has it not? A lot of things have gone sideways, often driven into ditches by distracted drivers. Happily for us, some inter...
www.howtoreadthisch.art
February 7, 2026 at 3:07 PM
In this week’s newsletter, I visualized The Post’s losses, Bezos’s net worth — and how much that net worth has increased each day since he bought the paper.
(That and a lot more, all for free!)
(That and a lot more, all for free!)
On race day, there are many variables to contend with, some out of the racers' control.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
The Best Ski Racers Often Don’t Win Gold
Unlike many Olympic sports, the best Alpine skiers often don’t win gold. Two-time Olympic champion Ted Ligety explains why the sport is so unpredictable.
www.nytimes.com
February 7, 2026 at 8:10 PM
On race day, there are many variables to contend with, some out of the racers' control.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...