Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
Fall 2025 fellow at the Syracuse University Institute for Democracy, Journalism & Citizenship. Formerly the senior editor and senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. Email, don't DM: nrakich at gmail dot com.
Reposted by Nathaniel Rakich
LEAD CHANGE: Katie Wilson is now ahead of Mayor Harrell by... 91 votes.
That's out of ≈270K!
Seattle counted roughly 39K ballots today, & they broke in favor of Wilson by 11.4%, erasing the entirety of the incumbent's lead.
That's out of ≈270K!
Seattle counted roughly 39K ballots today, & they broke in favor of Wilson by 11.4%, erasing the entirety of the incumbent's lead.
November 10, 2025 at 11:58 PM
LEAD CHANGE: Katie Wilson is now ahead of Mayor Harrell by... 91 votes.
That's out of ≈270K!
Seattle counted roughly 39K ballots today, & they broke in favor of Wilson by 11.4%, erasing the entirety of the incumbent's lead.
That's out of ≈270K!
Seattle counted roughly 39K ballots today, & they broke in favor of Wilson by 11.4%, erasing the entirety of the incumbent's lead.
Reposted by Nathaniel Rakich
Breaking News: The Supreme Court said that it would hear a challenge to a Mississippi law that could upend mail-ballot rules in many states before the midterm elections.
Supreme Court to Hear Major Challenge to Mail-In Ballot Laws
The justices agreed to hear a challenge to Mississippi’s law, a case that could upend similar measures in dozens of states before the 2026 election.
nyti.ms
November 10, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Breaking News: The Supreme Court said that it would hear a challenge to a Mississippi law that could upend mail-ballot rules in many states before the midterm elections.
I wrote this in 2018.
This was never going to end any other way.
This was never going to end any other way.
November 10, 2025 at 5:15 AM
I wrote this in 2018.
This was never going to end any other way.
This was never going to end any other way.
Clase made $4.5 million last year. Ortiz made $782,600. Something doesn’t add up here.
November 9, 2025 at 7:06 PM
Clase made $4.5 million last year. Ortiz made $782,600. Something doesn’t add up here.
Emmanuel Clase, a fugitive from the law!?
November 9, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Emmanuel Clase, a fugitive from the law!?
If a DC sports team is actually good, they’ll get my money. Nats, take note.
November 8, 2025 at 5:44 PM
If a DC sports team is actually good, they’ll get my money. Nats, take note.
Trump's approval rating has fallen the most among the voters who are newest to his coalition: people of color and young people. Good article from Mary Radcliffe (who is a must-read): marywitha4.substack.com/p/trumps-app...
November 5, 2025 at 6:34 PM
Trump's approval rating has fallen the most among the voters who are newest to his coalition: people of color and young people. Good article from Mary Radcliffe (who is a must-read): marywitha4.substack.com/p/trumps-app...
Ranked-choice voting tabulations have been run in Minneapolis, and incumbent Mayor Jacob Frey has defeated democratic socialist Omar Fateh 53–47%.
November 5, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Ranked-choice voting tabulations have been run in Minneapolis, and incumbent Mayor Jacob Frey has defeated democratic socialist Omar Fateh 53–47%.
Yesterday was a notable example of polls actually overestimating *Democrats*!
@fiftyplusone.news polling avg ➡️ result
#VAgov: D+11 ➡️ D+15
#NJgov: D+6 ➡️ D+13
It’s really hard to predict polling error in advance!
@fiftyplusone.news polling avg ➡️ result
#VAgov: D+11 ➡️ D+15
#NJgov: D+6 ➡️ D+13
It’s really hard to predict polling error in advance!
November 5, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Yesterday was a notable example of polls actually overestimating *Democrats*!
@fiftyplusone.news polling avg ➡️ result
#VAgov: D+11 ➡️ D+15
#NJgov: D+6 ➡️ D+13
It’s really hard to predict polling error in advance!
@fiftyplusone.news polling avg ➡️ result
#VAgov: D+11 ➡️ D+15
#NJgov: D+6 ➡️ D+13
It’s really hard to predict polling error in advance!
Democrats flipped 13 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates. They'll go into the next session with a 64-36 majority—their biggest since 1989.
November 5, 2025 at 7:13 AM
Democrats flipped 13 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates. They'll go into the next session with a 64-36 majority—their biggest since 1989.
In the race for Seattle mayor, moderate incumbent Bruce Harrell leads progressive Katie Wilson 53–46% in the first batch of votes. WA votes by mail, so more batches will drop in the coming days.
November 5, 2025 at 6:39 AM
In the race for Seattle mayor, moderate incumbent Bruce Harrell leads progressive Katie Wilson 53–46% in the first batch of votes. WA votes by mail, so more batches will drop in the coming days.
First-choice votes for mayor of Minneapolis are as follows:
Jacob Frey (Dem incumbent) 42%
Omar Fateh (Dem socialist challenger) 32%
DeWayne Davis (D) 14%
Jazz Hampton (D) 10%
Minneapolis uses ranked-choice voting, and RCV tabulations start tomorrow.
Jacob Frey (Dem incumbent) 42%
Omar Fateh (Dem socialist challenger) 32%
DeWayne Davis (D) 14%
Jazz Hampton (D) 10%
Minneapolis uses ranked-choice voting, and RCV tabulations start tomorrow.
November 5, 2025 at 6:37 AM
First-choice votes for mayor of Minneapolis are as follows:
Jacob Frey (Dem incumbent) 42%
Omar Fateh (Dem socialist challenger) 32%
DeWayne Davis (D) 14%
Jazz Hampton (D) 10%
Minneapolis uses ranked-choice voting, and RCV tabulations start tomorrow.
Jacob Frey (Dem incumbent) 42%
Omar Fateh (Dem socialist challenger) 32%
DeWayne Davis (D) 14%
Jazz Hampton (D) 10%
Minneapolis uses ranked-choice voting, and RCV tabulations start tomorrow.
If you're a Republican looking for good news tonight: Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R) appears to have held on for reelection, defeating Seth Koslow (D) 54–46% in a county Trump carried only 52–48%.
November 5, 2025 at 6:16 AM
If you're a Republican looking for good news tonight: Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R) appears to have held on for reelection, defeating Seth Koslow (D) 54–46% in a county Trump carried only 52–48%.
There was also a special election today for the safely Democratic #TX18. This was a jungle primary, and no one got a majority, so there will be a runoff on a TBD date between Christian Menefee (D) and Amanda Edwards (D).
November 5, 2025 at 6:12 AM
There was also a special election today for the safely Democratic #TX18. This was a jungle primary, and no one got a majority, so there will be a runoff on a TBD date between Christian Menefee (D) and Amanda Edwards (D).
The Albuquerque mayor's race is going to a runoff. Incumbent Tim Keller (D) received 36% of the first-round votes, and Darren White (R) received 31%.
November 5, 2025 at 6:10 AM
The Albuquerque mayor's race is going to a runoff. Incumbent Tim Keller (D) received 36% of the first-round votes, and Darren White (R) received 31%.
Reposted by Nathaniel Rakich
BREAKING: Detroit City Council President Mary Sheffield made history Tuesday night, Nov. 4, becoming the city's first woman mayor in an election she led from start to finish.
November 5, 2025 at 2:21 AM
BREAKING: Detroit City Council President Mary Sheffield made history Tuesday night, Nov. 4, becoming the city's first woman mayor in an election she led from start to finish.
Also tonight: Voters in Maine—who rejected a background checks ballot measure in 2016—enacted a "red flag" gun safety law by passing Question 2, 63–37%.
November 5, 2025 at 6:06 AM
Also tonight: Voters in Maine—who rejected a background checks ballot measure in 2016—enacted a "red flag" gun safety law by passing Question 2, 63–37%.
Reposted by Nathaniel Rakich
BREAKING: Democrat Jay Jones was elected Virginia attorney general after text message scandal, unseating GOP incumbent Jason Miyares.
Follow AP for live updates.
Follow AP for live updates.
Live updates: US voters head to the polls in first general election since Trump's return to power
One year after Donald Trump retook the presidency, 2025 Election Day includes closely watched races for New York City mayor, New Jersey governor and California's Proposition 50.
bit.ly
November 5, 2025 at 3:44 AM
BREAKING: Democrat Jay Jones was elected Virginia attorney general after text message scandal, unseating GOP incumbent Jason Miyares.
Follow AP for live updates.
Follow AP for live updates.
Wow—the AP very quickly projects that Prop 50 has passed in California. It currently leads 64-36 with 30% of the vote counted. CA will get a new, gerrymandered congressional map.
November 5, 2025 at 4:16 AM
Wow—the AP very quickly projects that Prop 50 has passed in California. It currently leads 64-36 with 30% of the vote counted. CA will get a new, gerrymandered congressional map.
Reposted by Nathaniel Rakich
New York City voters have narrowly rejected a ballot measure that would've moved city elections to even-numbered years (if Dem lawmakers had also amended NY's constitution).
It could've significantly boosted average turnout & reduced demographic disparities (Mamdani's term would've been unaffected)
It could've significantly boosted average turnout & reduced demographic disparities (Mamdani's term would've been unaffected)
New York City Proposal 6 Election Results 2025: Move Local Elections to Presidential Election Years
Get live results and maps from the 2025 New York general election.
www.nytimes.com
November 5, 2025 at 3:05 AM
New York City voters have narrowly rejected a ballot measure that would've moved city elections to even-numbered years (if Dem lawmakers had also amended NY's constitution).
It could've significantly boosted average turnout & reduced demographic disparities (Mamdani's term would've been unaffected)
It could've significantly boosted average turnout & reduced demographic disparities (Mamdani's term would've been unaffected)
Reposted by Nathaniel Rakich
Reposted by Nathaniel Rakich
A big result: Maine voters have rejected the conservative ballot measure that'd have restricted ballot access.
The measure was going to impose voter ID, and restrict mail voting significantly.
It lost easily, a year before the crucial midterms there.
Our coverage: boltsmag.org/maine-questi...
The measure was going to impose voter ID, and restrict mail voting significantly.
It lost easily, a year before the crucial midterms there.
Our coverage: boltsmag.org/maine-questi...
November 5, 2025 at 3:35 AM
A big result: Maine voters have rejected the conservative ballot measure that'd have restricted ballot access.
The measure was going to impose voter ID, and restrict mail voting significantly.
It lost easily, a year before the crucial midterms there.
Our coverage: boltsmag.org/maine-questi...
The measure was going to impose voter ID, and restrict mail voting significantly.
It lost easily, a year before the crucial midterms there.
Our coverage: boltsmag.org/maine-questi...
Reposted by Nathaniel Rakich
RESULT: Zohran Mamdani will be the next mayor of New York City.
The Democratic nominee, and democratic socialist lawmaker, defeats former Governor Andrew Cuomo for the second time this year, after winning against him in the primary.
The Democratic nominee, and democratic socialist lawmaker, defeats former Governor Andrew Cuomo for the second time this year, after winning against him in the primary.
November 5, 2025 at 2:39 AM
RESULT: Zohran Mamdani will be the next mayor of New York City.
The Democratic nominee, and democratic socialist lawmaker, defeats former Governor Andrew Cuomo for the second time this year, after winning against him in the primary.
The Democratic nominee, and democratic socialist lawmaker, defeats former Governor Andrew Cuomo for the second time this year, after winning against him in the primary.
The AP has called #NJgov for Mikie Sherrill (D). With 62% reporting, she leads Jack Ciattarelli (R) 57-42%, so she looks like she’s going to soundly beat her polls.
November 5, 2025 at 2:31 AM
The AP has called #NJgov for Mikie Sherrill (D). With 62% reporting, she leads Jack Ciattarelli (R) 57-42%, so she looks like she’s going to soundly beat her polls.