Stephen Wolf
@stephenwolf.bsky.social
Contributor @the-downballot.com.
Democracy, voting rights, redistricting, and maps.
Democracy, voting rights, redistricting, and maps.
Pinned
Stephen Wolf
@stephenwolf.bsky.social
· Nov 18
Thread: Republicans won the Senate in 2024 despite Democrats winning more votes & representing more people nationwide.
Republicans last won more support than Democrats in the 1990s but won the Senate anyway in 7 of 13 elections since 2000.
Data & charts below: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Republicans last won more support than Democrats in the 1990s but won the Senate anyway in 7 of 13 elections since 2000.
Data & charts below: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Extreme gerrymandering was one of the few things that united practically the whole Republican consultant class from "center"-right to far-right in 2012, and Brad Todd hasn't changed in that regard.
A whole party of "doesn't look like anything to me" about their own side's gerrymandering
A whole party of "doesn't look like anything to me" about their own side's gerrymandering
Texas already gerrymandered their maps at beginning of the decade
They then gerrymandered them again mid-decade to get even more seats
Same thing in Missouri and North Carolina
So presumably GOP has already gerrymandered to the max most places
*Only wildcard is SCOTUS and VRA
They then gerrymandered them again mid-decade to get even more seats
Same thing in Missouri and North Carolina
So presumably GOP has already gerrymandered to the max most places
*Only wildcard is SCOTUS and VRA
February 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM
Extreme gerrymandering was one of the few things that united practically the whole Republican consultant class from "center"-right to far-right in 2012, and Brad Todd hasn't changed in that regard.
A whole party of "doesn't look like anything to me" about their own side's gerrymandering
A whole party of "doesn't look like anything to me" about their own side's gerrymandering
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
Nothing to worry about, just state election officials preparing for possible illegal and unconstitutional efforts by the Trump administration to tamper with the 2026 election
February 8, 2026 at 6:10 PM
Nothing to worry about, just state election officials preparing for possible illegal and unconstitutional efforts by the Trump administration to tamper with the 2026 election
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
"Eliminate presidential immunity" needs to become as common a refrain as "eliminate Citizens United"
this case is maybe the single best example of one of the most destructive tendencies of this court: the tendency to treat their job as a collegiate legal seminar where they operate in hypotheticals rather than deal with the real world as it exists
February 9, 2026 at 3:48 PM
"Eliminate presidential immunity" needs to become as common a refrain as "eliminate Citizens United"
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
While Democratic Rep. Eugene Vindman represents the current 7th District, he'd almost certainly run for the 1st if the new map goes into effect. GOP Rep. Rob Wittman, who represents the existing 1st, could run for the 8th against Dem Rep. Don Beyer—but he'd be in bad shape there or anywhere else.
Virginia candidates are already maneuvering in anticipation that the Democrats’ new congressional map will be used in this year’s elections. In our newest Morning Digest, we tell you exactly who is likely to run where—and why.
Morning Digest: New Virginia map sets off a round of musical chairs
Our new guide tells you exactly who is likely to run where—and why
www.the-downballot.com
February 9, 2026 at 3:33 PM
While Democratic Rep. Eugene Vindman represents the current 7th District, he'd almost certainly run for the 1st if the new map goes into effect. GOP Rep. Rob Wittman, who represents the existing 1st, could run for the 8th against Dem Rep. Don Beyer—but he'd be in bad shape there or anywhere else.
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
When Republicans do it / When Democrats do it
February 7, 2026 at 11:41 PM
When Republicans do it / When Democrats do it
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
The GOP just had its best chance to finally flip a legislative seat in Trump 2.0. Democrats had other ideas.
Chasity Martinez just won a rural Trump+13 in the Louisiana House in a 24-point landslide—an overperformance of 37 points.
Our complete writeup on this remarkable outcome -->
Chasity Martinez just won a rural Trump+13 in the Louisiana House in a 24-point landslide—an overperformance of 37 points.
Our complete writeup on this remarkable outcome -->
Breaking: Democrats resoundingly defend red district in Louisiana, denying GOP its first pickup
Republicans have yet to flip a single legislative seat since Trump's return
www.the-downballot.com
February 8, 2026 at 3:16 AM
The GOP just had its best chance to finally flip a legislative seat in Trump 2.0. Democrats had other ideas.
Chasity Martinez just won a rural Trump+13 in the Louisiana House in a 24-point landslide—an overperformance of 37 points.
Our complete writeup on this remarkable outcome -->
Chasity Martinez just won a rural Trump+13 in the Louisiana House in a 24-point landslide—an overperformance of 37 points.
Our complete writeup on this remarkable outcome -->
Virginia Dems' congressional map would likely go 10-1 Dem in a Dem wave, but it has one big flaw: VA-02 is just Harris+1 while neighboring VA-03 wastes Dems at Harris+31.
On this hypothetical map, VA-03 would stay plurality-Black while VA-02 would be Harris+7: davesredistricting.org/join/cbfa749...
On this hypothetical map, VA-03 would stay plurality-Black while VA-02 would be Harris+7: davesredistricting.org/join/cbfa749...
February 7, 2026 at 10:14 PM
Virginia Dems' congressional map would likely go 10-1 Dem in a Dem wave, but it has one big flaw: VA-02 is just Harris+1 while neighboring VA-03 wastes Dems at Harris+31.
On this hypothetical map, VA-03 would stay plurality-Black while VA-02 would be Harris+7: davesredistricting.org/join/cbfa749...
On this hypothetical map, VA-03 would stay plurality-Black while VA-02 would be Harris+7: davesredistricting.org/join/cbfa749...
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
You should read this. It is the type of detail that experts in authoritarian regimes see as telling.
In this case, state agents are offered impunity from higher ups, and the legal system is rendered inoperative as a mode of accountability.
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/07/u...
In this case, state agents are offered impunity from higher ups, and the legal system is rendered inoperative as a mode of accountability.
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/07/u...
Prosecutors Began Investigating Renee Good’s Killing. Washington Told Them to Stop.
www.nytimes.com
February 7, 2026 at 4:47 PM
You should read this. It is the type of detail that experts in authoritarian regimes see as telling.
In this case, state agents are offered impunity from higher ups, and the legal system is rendered inoperative as a mode of accountability.
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/07/u...
In this case, state agents are offered impunity from higher ups, and the legal system is rendered inoperative as a mode of accountability.
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/07/u...
House Republicans’ voter suppression bill now bans student IDs from counting as voter ID.
Many Republican states have done this to target students with their voter ID laws
Many Republican states have done this to target students with their voter ID laws
🚨House Republicans have made substantial changes to the revised SAVE America Act, dropping provisions which would have forced Americans to prove their citizenship at the polls on Election Day. 🧵 1/
February 7, 2026 at 6:09 PM
House Republicans’ voter suppression bill now bans student IDs from counting as voter ID.
Many Republican states have done this to target students with their voter ID laws
Many Republican states have done this to target students with their voter ID laws
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
I'm sorry the guy changing the rules on the fly is named what
I stand with County Executive Calvin Ball as he signs emergency legislation today prohibiting privately owned buildings from being used as ICE detention centers.
Howard County chose dignity, accountability, and its people. Tune into our event now:
bit.ly/4a2VtHw
Howard County chose dignity, accountability, and its people. Tune into our event now:
bit.ly/4a2VtHw
Redirecting...
bit.ly
February 7, 2026 at 2:34 PM
I'm sorry the guy changing the rules on the fly is named what
Congressional Democrats tried to ban gerrymandering nationwide with bills in 2019 and 2021.
Rob Wittman and every other Republican voted against them to defeat that ban
Rob Wittman and every other Republican voted against them to defeat that ban
February 7, 2026 at 4:00 PM
Congressional Democrats tried to ban gerrymandering nationwide with bills in 2019 and 2021.
Rob Wittman and every other Republican voted against them to defeat that ban
Rob Wittman and every other Republican voted against them to defeat that ban
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
on the balance i think partisan gerrymandering is bad but the only way it ends is if democrats weaponize it against republicans everywhere they can. wiping out republican lawmakers in blue states might bring the GOP to the table to end the practice.
February 7, 2026 at 2:35 PM
on the balance i think partisan gerrymandering is bad but the only way it ends is if democrats weaponize it against republicans everywhere they can. wiping out republican lawmakers in blue states might bring the GOP to the table to end the practice.
Republicans on SCOTUS: No, we won’t ban gerrymandering.
Republicans in Congress: No, Democrats can’t ban gerrymandering.
Donald Trump: Every red state must gerrymander mid-decade for partisan gain.
Republicans in media: How dare California and Virginia do this to us?
Republicans in Congress: No, Democrats can’t ban gerrymandering.
Donald Trump: Every red state must gerrymander mid-decade for partisan gain.
Republicans in media: How dare California and Virginia do this to us?
so funny to see republicans complaining about this as if they have not been pulling this shit for 15 years.
🫡
February 7, 2026 at 2:35 PM
Republicans on SCOTUS: No, we won’t ban gerrymandering.
Republicans in Congress: No, Democrats can’t ban gerrymandering.
Donald Trump: Every red state must gerrymander mid-decade for partisan gain.
Republicans in media: How dare California and Virginia do this to us?
Republicans in Congress: No, Democrats can’t ban gerrymandering.
Donald Trump: Every red state must gerrymander mid-decade for partisan gain.
Republicans in media: How dare California and Virginia do this to us?
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
“Late Friday night, the Fifth Circuit adopted the extreme minority view—that the government can indefinitely detain without bond millions of non-citizens who have been here for generations; who have never committed a crime; and who pose neither a risk of flight nor any threat to public safety.”
208. The Fifth Circuit Jumps the Immigration Detention Shark
Late Friday, two of the nation's most right-wing circuit judges adopted an odious legal claim that district court judges from across the country (and ideological spectrum) have overwhelmingly rejected
www.stevevladeck.com
February 7, 2026 at 12:34 PM
“Late Friday night, the Fifth Circuit adopted the extreme minority view—that the government can indefinitely detain without bond millions of non-citizens who have been here for generations; who have never committed a crime; and who pose neither a risk of flight nor any threat to public safety.”
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
“Partisanship is inherent and permissible in the legislative districting process” — Ted Cruz in September, in an amicus brief supporting the Texas gerrymander. www.cornyn.senate.gov/wp-content/u...
February 7, 2026 at 1:40 PM
“Partisanship is inherent and permissible in the legislative districting process” — Ted Cruz in September, in an amicus brief supporting the Texas gerrymander. www.cornyn.senate.gov/wp-content/u...
If Virginia Dems’ congressional map becomes law, the national House map may become MORE favorable to Dems by 2024 president, suggesting Trump’s mid-decade gerrymandering plot backfired.
However, new maps overall may simultaneously be better for Republicans in a Dem wave election.
Here’s why 🧵
However, new maps overall may simultaneously be better for Republicans in a Dem wave election.
Here’s why 🧵
Big news from Virginia last night:
Dems unveiled their 10-1 congressional map in response to GOP gerrymanders in other states. It targets 4 Republicans & has 10 Harris seats.
It would be used in 2026 if a referendum passes on April 21.
Interactive map+data: davesredistricting.org/join/20e0049...
Dems unveiled their 10-1 congressional map in response to GOP gerrymanders in other states. It targets 4 Republicans & has 10 Harris seats.
It would be used in 2026 if a referendum passes on April 21.
Interactive map+data: davesredistricting.org/join/20e0049...
February 6, 2026 at 9:42 PM
If Virginia Dems’ congressional map becomes law, the national House map may become MORE favorable to Dems by 2024 president, suggesting Trump’s mid-decade gerrymandering plot backfired.
However, new maps overall may simultaneously be better for Republicans in a Dem wave election.
Here’s why 🧵
However, new maps overall may simultaneously be better for Republicans in a Dem wave election.
Here’s why 🧵
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
VA Gov. Spanberger (moderate, was in CIA) and NYC Mayor Mamdani (left, is in DSA) both taking steps to block local law enforcement from helping ICE as it violently violates people's rights is a good example of how the relevant divide in the Dem coalition isn't center-left, it's fight-don't fight.
February 6, 2026 at 6:40 PM
VA Gov. Spanberger (moderate, was in CIA) and NYC Mayor Mamdani (left, is in DSA) both taking steps to block local law enforcement from helping ICE as it violently violates people's rights is a good example of how the relevant divide in the Dem coalition isn't center-left, it's fight-don't fight.
Social democracy should be an internationalist movement again to counter the growing far-right international regardless of whether she’s running for president
February 6, 2026 at 7:16 PM
Social democracy should be an internationalist movement again to counter the growing far-right international regardless of whether she’s running for president
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
it's a little funny to see the freakout over the virginia maps when the justification that Texas gave for its new maps - which never went to voters for approval - was "trump won a mandate in 2024 so we need to enshrine that new reality into our maps, sorry Dems, deal with it."
"We simply do not care what you think about that"? This map will literally go to the voters for approval! It cannot take effect unless a majority of Virginians support it. This talking point is so stupid.
February 6, 2026 at 4:36 PM
it's a little funny to see the freakout over the virginia maps when the justification that Texas gave for its new maps - which never went to voters for approval - was "trump won a mandate in 2024 so we need to enshrine that new reality into our maps, sorry Dems, deal with it."
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
Here's @rickhasen.bsky.social detailing the scenario in which Trump uses search warrant to seize ballot boxes in a contested 2026 locale. This is more worrisome than ICE at the polls. Hasen also suggests ways to act against this now.
It's harrowing stuff:
newrepublic.com/article/2062...
It's harrowing stuff:
newrepublic.com/article/2062...
February 6, 2026 at 1:27 PM
Here's @rickhasen.bsky.social detailing the scenario in which Trump uses search warrant to seize ballot boxes in a contested 2026 locale. This is more worrisome than ICE at the polls. Hasen also suggests ways to act against this now.
It's harrowing stuff:
newrepublic.com/article/2062...
It's harrowing stuff:
newrepublic.com/article/2062...
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
In other words, the United States wants to fund a fifth column in Europe that will undermine its allies and degrade European political culture in order to advance this administration's perverse interests.
US government to fund Maga-aligned think-tanks and charities in Europe
State department grants to spread ‘American values’ are part of Washington’s 250th anniversary celebrations
www.ft.com
February 6, 2026 at 11:39 AM
In other words, the United States wants to fund a fifth column in Europe that will undermine its allies and degrade European political culture in order to advance this administration's perverse interests.
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
New, from me: Trump finalized his Schedule F policy, allowing him to remove job protections from career civil servants.
The new rule is dishonest and unmoored from reality in its effort to formalize the politicization of the federal government 🧵
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/trumps-sch...
The new rule is dishonest and unmoored from reality in its effort to formalize the politicization of the federal government 🧵
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/trumps-sch...
Trump's Schedule F Rule Finalized
A bizarro rule formally justifies politicizing public services
donmoynihan.substack.com
February 6, 2026 at 4:16 AM
New, from me: Trump finalized his Schedule F policy, allowing him to remove job protections from career civil servants.
The new rule is dishonest and unmoored from reality in its effort to formalize the politicization of the federal government 🧵
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/trumps-sch...
The new rule is dishonest and unmoored from reality in its effort to formalize the politicization of the federal government 🧵
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/trumps-sch...
Big news from Virginia last night:
Dems unveiled their 10-1 congressional map in response to GOP gerrymanders in other states. It targets 4 Republicans & has 10 Harris seats.
It would be used in 2026 if a referendum passes on April 21.
Interactive map+data: davesredistricting.org/join/20e0049...
Dems unveiled their 10-1 congressional map in response to GOP gerrymanders in other states. It targets 4 Republicans & has 10 Harris seats.
It would be used in 2026 if a referendum passes on April 21.
Interactive map+data: davesredistricting.org/join/20e0049...
February 6, 2026 at 3:22 PM
Big news from Virginia last night:
Dems unveiled their 10-1 congressional map in response to GOP gerrymanders in other states. It targets 4 Republicans & has 10 Harris seats.
It would be used in 2026 if a referendum passes on April 21.
Interactive map+data: davesredistricting.org/join/20e0049...
Dems unveiled their 10-1 congressional map in response to GOP gerrymanders in other states. It targets 4 Republicans & has 10 Harris seats.
It would be used in 2026 if a referendum passes on April 21.
Interactive map+data: davesredistricting.org/join/20e0049...
NEW: Virginia Dems have unveiled their proposed 10-1 congressional map in response to GOP gerrymanders in other states. It targets 4 Republicans & has 10 Harris seats.
It will be used in 2026 contingent upon an April 21 voter referendum.
Interactive map+data: davesredistricting.org/join/20e0049...
It will be used in 2026 contingent upon an April 21 voter referendum.
Interactive map+data: davesredistricting.org/join/20e0049...
February 6, 2026 at 1:03 AM
NEW: Virginia Dems have unveiled their proposed 10-1 congressional map in response to GOP gerrymanders in other states. It targets 4 Republicans & has 10 Harris seats.
It will be used in 2026 contingent upon an April 21 voter referendum.
Interactive map+data: davesredistricting.org/join/20e0049...
It will be used in 2026 contingent upon an April 21 voter referendum.
Interactive map+data: davesredistricting.org/join/20e0049...
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
Masks off: GOP FEC Commissioner Trey Trainor, who is now running for Congress, admits he “protected” Donald Trump from campaign finance investigations out of “loyalty”
x.com/baylisswagne...
x.com/baylisswagne...
x.com
February 5, 2026 at 8:31 PM
Masks off: GOP FEC Commissioner Trey Trainor, who is now running for Congress, admits he “protected” Donald Trump from campaign finance investigations out of “loyalty”
x.com/baylisswagne...
x.com/baylisswagne...