Stephen Wolf
@stephenwolf.bsky.social
Contributor @the-downballot.com.
Democracy, voting rights, redistricting, and maps.
Democracy, voting rights, redistricting, and maps.
Pinned
Stephen Wolf
@stephenwolf.bsky.social
· Nov 18
Thread: Republicans won the Senate in 2024 despite Democrats winning more votes & representing more people nationwide.
Republicans last won more support than Democrats in the 1990s but won the Senate anyway in 7 of 13 elections since 2000.
Data & charts below: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Republicans last won more support than Democrats in the 1990s but won the Senate anyway in 7 of 13 elections since 2000.
Data & charts below: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
The Wisconsin component of the analysis here is revealing. Evidence is consistent with DOGE strategically delaying contract terminations in WI until after the 2025 state Supreme Court elections to mitigate electoral risk.
December 26, 2025 at 1:25 PM
The Wisconsin component of the analysis here is revealing. Evidence is consistent with DOGE strategically delaying contract terminations in WI until after the 2025 state Supreme Court elections to mitigate electoral risk.
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
A great example of how the @nytimes.com centers white Americans and Trump supporters in its anecdotal political coverage. You never see stories like this about Black Democrats whose cities are cracked in Republican gerrymandering to give them Republican elected officials.
They Wanted a Conservative State. They Might Get a Democratic Representative Instead.
The passage of Proposition 50, which redrew California’s congressional map, means that all of the state’s conservative north is likely to be represented by Democrats.
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/26/u...
The passage of Proposition 50, which redrew California’s congressional map, means that all of the state’s conservative north is likely to be represented by Democrats.
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/26/u...
They Wanted a Conservative State. They Might Get a Democratic Representative Instead.
www.nytimes.com
December 26, 2025 at 1:13 PM
A great example of how the @nytimes.com centers white Americans and Trump supporters in its anecdotal political coverage. You never see stories like this about Black Democrats whose cities are cracked in Republican gerrymandering to give them Republican elected officials.
Tired: Debating whether “Die Hard” is a Christmas movie
Inspired: Debating whether “Children of Men” is a Christmas movie
Inspired: Debating whether “Children of Men” is a Christmas movie
New at tusk: My favorite Christmas entertainment, ranked.
"It's Christmas, Theo. It's the time of miracles. So be of good cheer"
The best in Christmas entertainment, from a non-observer
open.substack.com
December 25, 2025 at 11:47 PM
Tired: Debating whether “Die Hard” is a Christmas movie
Inspired: Debating whether “Children of Men” is a Christmas movie
Inspired: Debating whether “Children of Men” is a Christmas movie
Finally found a frontline soldier in the War on Christmas, and it’s a Republican legislator from Indiana
December 25, 2025 at 7:40 PM
Finally found a frontline soldier in the War on Christmas, and it’s a Republican legislator from Indiana
No way lol. This is somehow real x.com/Sen_ChrisGar...
December 25, 2025 at 7:39 PM
No way lol. This is somehow real x.com/Sen_ChrisGar...
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
concentration camps.
ICE documents reveal plan to hold 80,000 immigrants in warehouses
The Trump administration wants to build seven large-scale deportation hubs to speed up deportations, internal ICE documents show.
www.washingtonpost.com
December 24, 2025 at 1:55 PM
concentration camps.
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
#NEW: The ACLU has filed a lawsuit arguing that the act of turning in the Missouri redistricting referendum signatures has officially paused the congressional map. www.kcur.org/politics-e…
Missouri Capitol Police officers conduct security checks Dec. 9 on the 691 boxes of petitions filed to force a referendum on the gerrymandered congressional district map passed by lawmakers in September. Of the 27 times a referendum has been placed on the Missouri ballot, voters have rejected the...
In 1914, the Missouri Supreme Court held that once citizens submit signatures, the challenged law is automatically suspended until voters decide its fate.
www.kcur.org
December 24, 2025 at 1:02 AM
#NEW: The ACLU has filed a lawsuit arguing that the act of turning in the Missouri redistricting referendum signatures has officially paused the congressional map. www.kcur.org/politics-e…
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
We don’t spend enough time discussing how the entire MAGA movement is kept afloat by the constant threats of stochastic terrorism orchestrated by the president of the United States.
Congress, the courts, much of the media … all kept in line by the mob boss and his army of anonymous goons.
Congress, the courts, much of the media … all kept in line by the mob boss and his army of anonymous goons.
“I’m 84 years old. Threats against my life expectancy are kind of hollow. I don’t have much time anyway. I’m more concerned that our democracy is at risk because of the trends against the rule of law.” www.nbcnews.com/politics/pol...
Judges who ruled against Trump say harassment and threats have changed their lives
More than 100 pizzas were delivered to the homes of judges and their families this year, some with signs of foreign involvement. Judges say the message is clear: We know where you live.
www.nbcnews.com
December 24, 2025 at 3:06 PM
We don’t spend enough time discussing how the entire MAGA movement is kept afloat by the constant threats of stochastic terrorism orchestrated by the president of the United States.
Congress, the courts, much of the media … all kept in line by the mob boss and his army of anonymous goons.
Congress, the courts, much of the media … all kept in line by the mob boss and his army of anonymous goons.
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
A transatlantic showdown over tech policy (as opposed to, say, net zero) could actually have a unifying & galvanising political effect within the EU. The union’s digital regulations are broadly popular and many voters actually want more, not fewer, controls on Big Tech.
yougov.co.uk/technology/a...
yougov.co.uk/technology/a...
December 24, 2025 at 2:07 PM
A transatlantic showdown over tech policy (as opposed to, say, net zero) could actually have a unifying & galvanising political effect within the EU. The union’s digital regulations are broadly popular and many voters actually want more, not fewer, controls on Big Tech.
yougov.co.uk/technology/a...
yougov.co.uk/technology/a...
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
These declines are MASSIVE.
And the comparative silence in media coverage is absolutely DAMNING.
“Why are ppl always so afraid of crime?”
THIS is why. When crime goes up, media trips over itself to report it.
Falls to pre-war (!!) levels? Just CRICKETS.
And the comparative silence in media coverage is absolutely DAMNING.
“Why are ppl always so afraid of crime?”
THIS is why. When crime goes up, media trips over itself to report it.
Falls to pre-war (!!) levels? Just CRICKETS.
I count 10 cities in 2025 that are on track to have the fewest murders since at least 1970. Newark is on pace to have the fewest murders since 1956 (though only have data through Oct this year) and San Francisco is on pace to have the fewest murders since 1942.
December 23, 2025 at 10:03 PM
These declines are MASSIVE.
And the comparative silence in media coverage is absolutely DAMNING.
“Why are ppl always so afraid of crime?”
THIS is why. When crime goes up, media trips over itself to report it.
Falls to pre-war (!!) levels? Just CRICKETS.
And the comparative silence in media coverage is absolutely DAMNING.
“Why are ppl always so afraid of crime?”
THIS is why. When crime goes up, media trips over itself to report it.
Falls to pre-war (!!) levels? Just CRICKETS.
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
“Grace periods” for late-arriving mail ballots were not controversial until very recently. (Kansas lawmakers voted *163-1* for a grace period in 2017!)
But Trump wants them banned, so red states have lately rushed to help him. Ohio just joined the list:
boltsmag.org/ohio-ends-gr...
But Trump wants them banned, so red states have lately rushed to help him. Ohio just joined the list:
boltsmag.org/ohio-ends-gr...
Ohio Bans Grace Periods for Mail Ballots, Fulfilling Trump’s Wishes - Bolts
Ohio is the fourth GOP-run state this year to ban ballots that are postmarked by Election Day but arrive after. A Supreme Court case could force that policy nationwide next year.
boltsmag.org
December 23, 2025 at 5:25 PM
“Grace periods” for late-arriving mail ballots were not controversial until very recently. (Kansas lawmakers voted *163-1* for a grace period in 2017!)
But Trump wants them banned, so red states have lately rushed to help him. Ohio just joined the list:
boltsmag.org/ohio-ends-gr...
But Trump wants them banned, so red states have lately rushed to help him. Ohio just joined the list:
boltsmag.org/ohio-ends-gr...
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
This is critically important. Democrats need to pass it if they retake Congress. Trump will veto it. So pass it again. Campaign on it. Given current polling, corruption of the FBI, and the brutality of ICE and BP, there’s no better time to say, “Federal police are not above the law.”
Restoring Bivens rights: one bill "would allow citizens to sue for damages resulting from constitutional violations committed by federal officers," while the other "would create a cause of action against federal law enforcement agencies and police depts for constitutional violations."
These congressmen want to give you the right to sue federal law enforcement for violating your rights
The proposed bills aim to codify a 1971 Supreme Court ruling that allowed individuals to sue the feds for Fourth Amendment violations.
reason.com
December 23, 2025 at 1:53 PM
This is critically important. Democrats need to pass it if they retake Congress. Trump will veto it. So pass it again. Campaign on it. Given current polling, corruption of the FBI, and the brutality of ICE and BP, there’s no better time to say, “Federal police are not above the law.”
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
NEW: For almost a decade, North Carolina’s majority-Republican legislature tried six times to strip Democratic governors of control over the board overseeing the swing state’s elections.
This year, it finally succeeded.
This year, it finally succeeded.
Inside the North Carolina GOP’s Decade-Long Push to Seize Power From the State’s Democratic Governors
For almost a decade, North Carolina’s majority-Republican legislature tried six times to strip Democratic governors of control over the board overseeing the swing state’s elections. This year, it finally succeeded.
www.propublica.org
December 22, 2025 at 2:41 PM
NEW: For almost a decade, North Carolina’s majority-Republican legislature tried six times to strip Democratic governors of control over the board overseeing the swing state’s elections.
This year, it finally succeeded.
This year, it finally succeeded.
This could have big implications for democracy in Kansas.
The retiring justice was part of two 4-3 rulings that upheld GOP gerrymandering & weakened voting rights.
Gov. Kelly has since replaced 1 of those 4 justices & gets to replace another just as the GOP is considering passing a new gerrymander
The retiring justice was part of two 4-3 rulings that upheld GOP gerrymandering & weakened voting rights.
Gov. Kelly has since replaced 1 of those 4 justices & gets to replace another just as the GOP is considering passing a new gerrymander
The Kansas chief justice is going to retire in early 2026.
That'll give the Democratic governor an appointment—but major caveat that the 'merit system' significantly constrains the governor's choice in this state (for now), so don't expect a major upheaval.
kansasreflector.com/2025/12/19/k...
That'll give the Democratic governor an appointment—but major caveat that the 'merit system' significantly constrains the governor's choice in this state (for now), so don't expect a major upheaval.
kansasreflector.com/2025/12/19/k...
Kansas Supreme Court chief justice to retire by early February • Kansas Reflector
Kansas Supreme Court Chief Justice Marla Luckert will step down from her position at the start of the new year and retire within weeks, she announced Friday.
kansasreflector.com
December 22, 2025 at 4:05 PM
This could have big implications for democracy in Kansas.
The retiring justice was part of two 4-3 rulings that upheld GOP gerrymandering & weakened voting rights.
Gov. Kelly has since replaced 1 of those 4 justices & gets to replace another just as the GOP is considering passing a new gerrymander
The retiring justice was part of two 4-3 rulings that upheld GOP gerrymandering & weakened voting rights.
Gov. Kelly has since replaced 1 of those 4 justices & gets to replace another just as the GOP is considering passing a new gerrymander
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
CBS News chief Bari Weiss pulls 60 Minutes story
Weiss said investigation had to include comments from Trump administration
60M's Sharyn Alfonsi said multiple US agencies refused to comment - and this lets WH veto coverage
My NPR story
www.npr.org/2025/12/22/g...
Weiss said investigation had to include comments from Trump administration
60M's Sharyn Alfonsi said multiple US agencies refused to comment - and this lets WH veto coverage
My NPR story
www.npr.org/2025/12/22/g...
CBS News chief Bari Weiss pulls '60 Minutes' story, sparking outcry
CBS News Editor-in-Chief Bari Weiss pulled a 60 Minutes segment on allegations of abuses at an El Salvador detention center where the Trump administration sent hundreds of Venezuelan migrants.
www.npr.org
December 22, 2025 at 12:11 PM
CBS News chief Bari Weiss pulls 60 Minutes story
Weiss said investigation had to include comments from Trump administration
60M's Sharyn Alfonsi said multiple US agencies refused to comment - and this lets WH veto coverage
My NPR story
www.npr.org/2025/12/22/g...
Weiss said investigation had to include comments from Trump administration
60M's Sharyn Alfonsi said multiple US agencies refused to comment - and this lets WH veto coverage
My NPR story
www.npr.org/2025/12/22/g...
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
Oh, look there: an editorial-interference canary.
December 21, 2025 at 9:50 PM
Oh, look there: an editorial-interference canary.
North Carolina Dems are running for 50/50 Senate seats & 118/120* House seats.
Republicans are running for 45 Senate seats & just 91 House seats.
That's impressive for Dems since gerrymandering gave the GOP nearly 60% in both chambers.
*(Dem-leaning indies are running for the other 2 House seats)
Republicans are running for 45 Senate seats & just 91 House seats.
That's impressive for Dems since gerrymandering gave the GOP nearly 60% in both chambers.
*(Dem-leaning indies are running for the other 2 House seats)
NCSBE update is in. This should be the final candidate list--> #ncpol
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
2026 Primary Election Candidate List
docs.google.com
December 19, 2025 at 10:21 PM
North Carolina Dems are running for 50/50 Senate seats & 118/120* House seats.
Republicans are running for 45 Senate seats & just 91 House seats.
That's impressive for Dems since gerrymandering gave the GOP nearly 60% in both chambers.
*(Dem-leaning indies are running for the other 2 House seats)
Republicans are running for 45 Senate seats & just 91 House seats.
That's impressive for Dems since gerrymandering gave the GOP nearly 60% in both chambers.
*(Dem-leaning indies are running for the other 2 House seats)
Renaming gerrymandering as "Roblining" seems fitting for a guy who has spent his whole career trying to allow gerrymandering communities of color out of representation
We should stop calling this “gerrymanders” and come up with something based on John Roberts’s name.
“I Drove 700 Miles Through California’s Absurd New Congressional District” electionlawblog.org?p=153586
December 19, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Renaming gerrymandering as "Roblining" seems fitting for a guy who has spent his whole career trying to allow gerrymandering communities of color out of representation
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
This guy was just confirmed to be US ambassador to South Africa
So you should really watch this. Just 2 minutes. But a window into the truly radical nature of the people Trump is nominating.
When pressed today, the nominee to be Ambassador to South Africa refuses to oppose reinstituting laws to prevent black people from voting in America.
When pressed today, the nominee to be Ambassador to South Africa refuses to oppose reinstituting laws to prevent black people from voting in America.
December 19, 2025 at 4:20 AM
This guy was just confirmed to be US ambassador to South Africa
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
NEW: @GovWesMoore's Redistricting Advisory Commission is asking Marylanders to submit new congressional maps for consideration
After Christmas, they will hold two additional public hearings as they continue their work to recommend redistricting plans to the MD General Assembly
After Christmas, they will hold two additional public hearings as they continue their work to recommend redistricting plans to the MD General Assembly
December 18, 2025 at 11:28 PM
NEW: @GovWesMoore's Redistricting Advisory Commission is asking Marylanders to submit new congressional maps for consideration
After Christmas, they will hold two additional public hearings as they continue their work to recommend redistricting plans to the MD General Assembly
After Christmas, they will hold two additional public hearings as they continue their work to recommend redistricting plans to the MD General Assembly
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
A quick thread on Republicans packing state supreme courts in the past 10 years. They hate voters and democracy. 🧵
👀 Utah Republicans are threatening to expand the size of their state supreme court from 5 to 7 so they can get a favorable outcome in their redistricting appeal in time for 2026.
Ds across the country can take note especially if Ds get back in control of Cong/WH again.
www.abc4.com/news/politic...
Ds across the country can take note especially if Ds get back in control of Cong/WH again.
www.abc4.com/news/politic...
December 18, 2025 at 7:38 PM
A quick thread on Republicans packing state supreme courts in the past 10 years. They hate voters and democracy. 🧵
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
Once again, NH Republicans have avoided calling a special election for a state House district they could have lost.
Republican Rep. Matthew Lunney rep'd the town of Meredith, which is run by the GOP. It voted 51-48 for Trump last year. The town gov't decided not to request a special election.
Republican Rep. Matthew Lunney rep'd the town of Meredith, which is run by the GOP. It voted 51-48 for Trump last year. The town gov't decided not to request a special election.
Lunney resigns from Statehouse, served Meredith
MEREDITH — A former first-term state representative resigned his elected position in September.
www.laconiadailysun.com
December 18, 2025 at 6:03 PM
Once again, NH Republicans have avoided calling a special election for a state House district they could have lost.
Republican Rep. Matthew Lunney rep'd the town of Meredith, which is run by the GOP. It voted 51-48 for Trump last year. The town gov't decided not to request a special election.
Republican Rep. Matthew Lunney rep'd the town of Meredith, which is run by the GOP. It voted 51-48 for Trump last year. The town gov't decided not to request a special election.
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
Truly shows how judicial elections matter. The new justice, Pamela Goodwine, had the support of Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear but still won an officially nonpartisan race for a Trump+6 district in a 77-23 landslide. The win also made her the first Black woman on the court.
A year after upholding a law limiting the power of the Jefferson County school board, the Kentucky Supreme Court struck it down in a new ruling Thursday, thanks to a new justice on the court. #kyga26
Kentucky Supreme Court reverses course, strikes down law limiting JCPS board power
A year after upholding a law limiting the power of the Jefferson County school board, the Kentucky Supreme Court struck it down in a new ruling, thanks to a new member.
www.lpm.org
December 18, 2025 at 6:31 PM
Truly shows how judicial elections matter. The new justice, Pamela Goodwine, had the support of Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear but still won an officially nonpartisan race for a Trump+6 district in a 77-23 landslide. The win also made her the first Black woman on the court.
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
the failure to prosecute Trump for seeking to overturn the election is one of the greatest and most consequential bag fumbles in the history of American politics
December 18, 2025 at 3:12 PM
the failure to prosecute Trump for seeking to overturn the election is one of the greatest and most consequential bag fumbles in the history of American politics
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
"Like Michael Scott shouting 'I declare bankruptcy!' Utah’s GOP lawmakers seem to think you can appeal by vibes alone."
🤣🤣🤣
From @schotthappens.com, on the Utah GOP's strangely bumbling efforts to appeal a redistricting ruling they loathe.
🤣🤣🤣
From @schotthappens.com, on the Utah GOP's strangely bumbling efforts to appeal a redistricting ruling they loathe.
Utah legislature misses redistricting appeal window, now seeks do-over
Utah lawmakers missed their chance for a fast-track appeal after a judge voided their congressional map. Now they want a do-over.
utahpolitics.news
December 18, 2025 at 5:32 PM
"Like Michael Scott shouting 'I declare bankruptcy!' Utah’s GOP lawmakers seem to think you can appeal by vibes alone."
🤣🤣🤣
From @schotthappens.com, on the Utah GOP's strangely bumbling efforts to appeal a redistricting ruling they loathe.
🤣🤣🤣
From @schotthappens.com, on the Utah GOP's strangely bumbling efforts to appeal a redistricting ruling they loathe.