Stephen Wolf
@stephenwolf.bsky.social
Contributor @the-downballot.com.
Democracy, voting rights, redistricting, and maps.
Democracy, voting rights, redistricting, and maps.
Pinned
Stephen Wolf
@stephenwolf.bsky.social
· Nov 18
Thread: Republicans won the Senate in 2024 despite Democrats winning more votes & representing more people nationwide.
Republicans last won more support than Democrats in the 1990s but won the Senate anyway in 7 of 13 elections since 2000.
Data & charts below: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Republicans last won more support than Democrats in the 1990s but won the Senate anyway in 7 of 13 elections since 2000.
Data & charts below: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
And maybe this was just a slip, but it's notable he said Texas Republicans would have to "settle" for a 71% GOP delegation.
They re-gerrymandered the map to target 5 Dem seats and secure a 30-8 majority, which is 79%. 71% would mean failing to flip 3 of those seats
They re-gerrymandered the map to target 5 Dem seats and secure a 30-8 majority, which is 79%. 71% would mean failing to flip 3 of those seats
February 10, 2026 at 12:24 AM
And maybe this was just a slip, but it's notable he said Texas Republicans would have to "settle" for a 71% GOP delegation.
They re-gerrymandered the map to target 5 Dem seats and secure a 30-8 majority, which is 79%. 71% would mean failing to flip 3 of those seats
They re-gerrymandered the map to target 5 Dem seats and secure a 30-8 majority, which is 79%. 71% would mean failing to flip 3 of those seats
Unfortunately, I don't think they're close to gerrymandering to the max in many states, but fortunately many GOP state legislators were quite opposed to doing that in this cycle
February 10, 2026 at 12:15 AM
Unfortunately, I don't think they're close to gerrymandering to the max in many states, but fortunately many GOP state legislators were quite opposed to doing that in this cycle
Of course, they privately know all about it. There was an infamous 2012 Republican State Leadership Committee memo about the success of Project REDMAP in gerrymandering Republicans a House majority despite losing the popular vote in that year
GOP Memo: Gerrymandering Won Us The House Majority
Call it a gaffe: a slip-up that accidentally reveals the truth. A...
talkingpointsmemo.com
February 10, 2026 at 12:07 AM
Of course, they privately know all about it. There was an infamous 2012 Republican State Leadership Committee memo about the success of Project REDMAP in gerrymandering Republicans a House majority despite losing the popular vote in that year
Extreme gerrymandering was one of the few things that united practically the whole Republican consultant class from "center"-right to far-right in 2012, and Brad Todd hasn't changed in that regard.
A whole party of "doesn't look like anything to me" about their own side's gerrymandering
A whole party of "doesn't look like anything to me" about their own side's gerrymandering
Texas already gerrymandered their maps at beginning of the decade
They then gerrymandered them again mid-decade to get even more seats
Same thing in Missouri and North Carolina
So presumably GOP has already gerrymandered to the max most places
*Only wildcard is SCOTUS and VRA
They then gerrymandered them again mid-decade to get even more seats
Same thing in Missouri and North Carolina
So presumably GOP has already gerrymandered to the max most places
*Only wildcard is SCOTUS and VRA
February 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM
Extreme gerrymandering was one of the few things that united practically the whole Republican consultant class from "center"-right to far-right in 2012, and Brad Todd hasn't changed in that regard.
A whole party of "doesn't look like anything to me" about their own side's gerrymandering
A whole party of "doesn't look like anything to me" about their own side's gerrymandering
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
Nothing to worry about, just state election officials preparing for possible illegal and unconstitutional efforts by the Trump administration to tamper with the 2026 election
February 8, 2026 at 6:10 PM
Nothing to worry about, just state election officials preparing for possible illegal and unconstitutional efforts by the Trump administration to tamper with the 2026 election
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
"Eliminate presidential immunity" needs to become as common a refrain as "eliminate Citizens United"
this case is maybe the single best example of one of the most destructive tendencies of this court: the tendency to treat their job as a collegiate legal seminar where they operate in hypotheticals rather than deal with the real world as it exists
February 9, 2026 at 3:48 PM
"Eliminate presidential immunity" needs to become as common a refrain as "eliminate Citizens United"
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
While Democratic Rep. Eugene Vindman represents the current 7th District, he'd almost certainly run for the 1st if the new map goes into effect. GOP Rep. Rob Wittman, who represents the existing 1st, could run for the 8th against Dem Rep. Don Beyer—but he'd be in bad shape there or anywhere else.
Virginia candidates are already maneuvering in anticipation that the Democrats’ new congressional map will be used in this year’s elections. In our newest Morning Digest, we tell you exactly who is likely to run where—and why.
Morning Digest: New Virginia map sets off a round of musical chairs
Our new guide tells you exactly who is likely to run where—and why
www.the-downballot.com
February 9, 2026 at 3:33 PM
While Democratic Rep. Eugene Vindman represents the current 7th District, he'd almost certainly run for the 1st if the new map goes into effect. GOP Rep. Rob Wittman, who represents the existing 1st, could run for the 8th against Dem Rep. Don Beyer—but he'd be in bad shape there or anywhere else.
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
When Republicans do it / When Democrats do it
February 7, 2026 at 11:41 PM
When Republicans do it / When Democrats do it
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
The GOP just had its best chance to finally flip a legislative seat in Trump 2.0. Democrats had other ideas.
Chasity Martinez just won a rural Trump+13 in the Louisiana House in a 24-point landslide—an overperformance of 37 points.
Our complete writeup on this remarkable outcome -->
Chasity Martinez just won a rural Trump+13 in the Louisiana House in a 24-point landslide—an overperformance of 37 points.
Our complete writeup on this remarkable outcome -->
Breaking: Democrats resoundingly defend red district in Louisiana, denying GOP its first pickup
Republicans have yet to flip a single legislative seat since Trump's return
www.the-downballot.com
February 8, 2026 at 3:16 AM
The GOP just had its best chance to finally flip a legislative seat in Trump 2.0. Democrats had other ideas.
Chasity Martinez just won a rural Trump+13 in the Louisiana House in a 24-point landslide—an overperformance of 37 points.
Our complete writeup on this remarkable outcome -->
Chasity Martinez just won a rural Trump+13 in the Louisiana House in a 24-point landslide—an overperformance of 37 points.
Our complete writeup on this remarkable outcome -->
That could just be a convenient excuse. Note that VA-03 and VA-04 weren’t drawn as a result of VRA litigation but because the GOP racially gerrymandered and it got struck down when a Dem had veto power.
After a court redrew the map last decade, VA-04 was majority white and VA-03 was plurality white
After a court redrew the map last decade, VA-04 was majority white and VA-03 was plurality white
February 7, 2026 at 11:02 PM
That could just be a convenient excuse. Note that VA-03 and VA-04 weren’t drawn as a result of VRA litigation but because the GOP racially gerrymandered and it got struck down when a Dem had veto power.
After a court redrew the map last decade, VA-04 was majority white and VA-03 was plurality white
After a court redrew the map last decade, VA-04 was majority white and VA-03 was plurality white
I don’t see any legal basis for that.
Racial gerrymandering violations are when race predominates over other criteria without a legitimate government interest, and the Voting Rights Act doesn’t set % targets, just whatever lets a minority group elect its preferred candidates. 40% would be fine here
Racial gerrymandering violations are when race predominates over other criteria without a legitimate government interest, and the Voting Rights Act doesn’t set % targets, just whatever lets a minority group elect its preferred candidates. 40% would be fine here
February 7, 2026 at 10:59 PM
I don’t see any legal basis for that.
Racial gerrymandering violations are when race predominates over other criteria without a legitimate government interest, and the Voting Rights Act doesn’t set % targets, just whatever lets a minority group elect its preferred candidates. 40% would be fine here
Racial gerrymandering violations are when race predominates over other criteria without a legitimate government interest, and the Voting Rights Act doesn’t set % targets, just whatever lets a minority group elect its preferred candidates. 40% would be fine here
Given that they could afford only one Senate defection, I’d imagine that a couple of members insisted on this configuration (or House members did)
February 7, 2026 at 10:47 PM
Given that they could afford only one Senate defection, I’d imagine that a couple of members insisted on this configuration (or House members did)
On the contrary, there’s almost certainly no VRA reason for doing this, so setting an arbitrary target of plurality Black could open it up to a racial gerrymandering challenge if that’s what they did
February 7, 2026 at 10:41 PM
On the contrary, there’s almost certainly no VRA reason for doing this, so setting an arbitrary target of plurality Black could open it up to a racial gerrymandering challenge if that’s what they did
I highly doubt it. SCOTUS has made those nearly impossible to win when lawmakers claim partisanship as the reason such as in the recent Texas case
February 7, 2026 at 10:39 PM
I highly doubt it. SCOTUS has made those nearly impossible to win when lawmakers claim partisanship as the reason such as in the recent Texas case
Maybe so! But that still isn’t a good reason for leaving it next to a Harris+31 seat
February 7, 2026 at 10:38 PM
Maybe so! But that still isn’t a good reason for leaving it next to a Harris+31 seat
Keeping VA-03 dark blue isn’t needed to ensure Black voters can elect their preferred candidates, either.
My hypothetical map below lowers the Black adult population % by 3 points, but since it also drops from Harris+31 to Harris+17, the Black % of a Dem primary would remain as high if not higher
My hypothetical map below lowers the Black adult population % by 3 points, but since it also drops from Harris+31 to Harris+17, the Black % of a Dem primary would remain as high if not higher
Virginia Dems’ map would likely go 10-1 in 2026—but it has 1 big flaw: GOP-held VA-02 is just Harris+1 while VA-03 is Harris+31.
It seems VA-03 Rep. Bobby Scott or a would-be successor in the legislature put self-interest above party.
My hypothetical map had VA-02 at Harris+12 & VA-03 at Harris+17
It seems VA-03 Rep. Bobby Scott or a would-be successor in the legislature put self-interest above party.
My hypothetical map had VA-02 at Harris+12 & VA-03 at Harris+17
February 7, 2026 at 10:36 PM
Keeping VA-03 dark blue isn’t needed to ensure Black voters can elect their preferred candidates, either.
My hypothetical map below lowers the Black adult population % by 3 points, but since it also drops from Harris+31 to Harris+17, the Black % of a Dem primary would remain as high if not higher
My hypothetical map below lowers the Black adult population % by 3 points, but since it also drops from Harris+31 to Harris+17, the Black % of a Dem primary would remain as high if not higher
There’s no good strategic reason for how Virginia Democrats drew districts 2 and 3.
3rd District Rep. Bobby Scott or Dem legislators who want to run to succeed the 78-year-old incumbent whenever he retires seemingly wanted to keep it heavily blue for their own self interest at the 2nd’s expense
3rd District Rep. Bobby Scott or Dem legislators who want to run to succeed the 78-year-old incumbent whenever he retires seemingly wanted to keep it heavily blue for their own self interest at the 2nd’s expense
February 7, 2026 at 10:22 PM
There’s no good strategic reason for how Virginia Democrats drew districts 2 and 3.
3rd District Rep. Bobby Scott or Dem legislators who want to run to succeed the 78-year-old incumbent whenever he retires seemingly wanted to keep it heavily blue for their own self interest at the 2nd’s expense
3rd District Rep. Bobby Scott or Dem legislators who want to run to succeed the 78-year-old incumbent whenever he retires seemingly wanted to keep it heavily blue for their own self interest at the 2nd’s expense
Virginia Dems' congressional map would likely go 10-1 Dem in a Dem wave, but it has one big flaw: VA-02 is just Harris+1 while neighboring VA-03 wastes Dems at Harris+31.
On this hypothetical map, VA-03 would stay plurality-Black while VA-02 would be Harris+7: davesredistricting.org/join/cbfa749...
On this hypothetical map, VA-03 would stay plurality-Black while VA-02 would be Harris+7: davesredistricting.org/join/cbfa749...
February 7, 2026 at 10:14 PM
Virginia Dems' congressional map would likely go 10-1 Dem in a Dem wave, but it has one big flaw: VA-02 is just Harris+1 while neighboring VA-03 wastes Dems at Harris+31.
On this hypothetical map, VA-03 would stay plurality-Black while VA-02 would be Harris+7: davesredistricting.org/join/cbfa749...
On this hypothetical map, VA-03 would stay plurality-Black while VA-02 would be Harris+7: davesredistricting.org/join/cbfa749...
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
You should read this. It is the type of detail that experts in authoritarian regimes see as telling.
In this case, state agents are offered impunity from higher ups, and the legal system is rendered inoperative as a mode of accountability.
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/07/u...
In this case, state agents are offered impunity from higher ups, and the legal system is rendered inoperative as a mode of accountability.
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/07/u...
Prosecutors Began Investigating Renee Good’s Killing. Washington Told Them to Stop.
www.nytimes.com
February 7, 2026 at 4:47 PM
You should read this. It is the type of detail that experts in authoritarian regimes see as telling.
In this case, state agents are offered impunity from higher ups, and the legal system is rendered inoperative as a mode of accountability.
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/07/u...
In this case, state agents are offered impunity from higher ups, and the legal system is rendered inoperative as a mode of accountability.
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/07/u...
House Republicans’ voter suppression bill now bans student IDs from counting as voter ID.
Many Republican states have done this to target students with their voter ID laws
Many Republican states have done this to target students with their voter ID laws
🚨House Republicans have made substantial changes to the revised SAVE America Act, dropping provisions which would have forced Americans to prove their citizenship at the polls on Election Day. 🧵 1/
February 7, 2026 at 6:09 PM
House Republicans’ voter suppression bill now bans student IDs from counting as voter ID.
Many Republican states have done this to target students with their voter ID laws
Many Republican states have done this to target students with their voter ID laws
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
I'm sorry the guy changing the rules on the fly is named what
I stand with County Executive Calvin Ball as he signs emergency legislation today prohibiting privately owned buildings from being used as ICE detention centers.
Howard County chose dignity, accountability, and its people. Tune into our event now:
bit.ly/4a2VtHw
Howard County chose dignity, accountability, and its people. Tune into our event now:
bit.ly/4a2VtHw
Redirecting...
bit.ly
February 7, 2026 at 2:34 PM
I'm sorry the guy changing the rules on the fly is named what
Congressional Democrats tried to ban gerrymandering nationwide with bills in 2019 and 2021.
Rob Wittman and every other Republican voted against them to defeat that ban
Rob Wittman and every other Republican voted against them to defeat that ban
February 7, 2026 at 4:00 PM
Congressional Democrats tried to ban gerrymandering nationwide with bills in 2019 and 2021.
Rob Wittman and every other Republican voted against them to defeat that ban
Rob Wittman and every other Republican voted against them to defeat that ban
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
on the balance i think partisan gerrymandering is bad but the only way it ends is if democrats weaponize it against republicans everywhere they can. wiping out republican lawmakers in blue states might bring the GOP to the table to end the practice.
February 7, 2026 at 2:35 PM
on the balance i think partisan gerrymandering is bad but the only way it ends is if democrats weaponize it against republicans everywhere they can. wiping out republican lawmakers in blue states might bring the GOP to the table to end the practice.
Republicans on SCOTUS: No, we won’t ban gerrymandering.
Republicans in Congress: No, Democrats can’t ban gerrymandering.
Donald Trump: Every red state must gerrymander mid-decade for partisan gain.
Republicans in media: How dare California and Virginia do this to us?
Republicans in Congress: No, Democrats can’t ban gerrymandering.
Donald Trump: Every red state must gerrymander mid-decade for partisan gain.
Republicans in media: How dare California and Virginia do this to us?
so funny to see republicans complaining about this as if they have not been pulling this shit for 15 years.
🫡
February 7, 2026 at 2:35 PM
Republicans on SCOTUS: No, we won’t ban gerrymandering.
Republicans in Congress: No, Democrats can’t ban gerrymandering.
Donald Trump: Every red state must gerrymander mid-decade for partisan gain.
Republicans in media: How dare California and Virginia do this to us?
Republicans in Congress: No, Democrats can’t ban gerrymandering.
Donald Trump: Every red state must gerrymander mid-decade for partisan gain.
Republicans in media: How dare California and Virginia do this to us?
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
“Late Friday night, the Fifth Circuit adopted the extreme minority view—that the government can indefinitely detain without bond millions of non-citizens who have been here for generations; who have never committed a crime; and who pose neither a risk of flight nor any threat to public safety.”
208. The Fifth Circuit Jumps the Immigration Detention Shark
Late Friday, two of the nation's most right-wing circuit judges adopted an odious legal claim that district court judges from across the country (and ideological spectrum) have overwhelmingly rejected
www.stevevladeck.com
February 7, 2026 at 12:34 PM
“Late Friday night, the Fifth Circuit adopted the extreme minority view—that the government can indefinitely detain without bond millions of non-citizens who have been here for generations; who have never committed a crime; and who pose neither a risk of flight nor any threat to public safety.”