Sam Shirazi
@samshirazi.bsky.social
Host of Federal Fallout Podcast. Follow for Virginia Elections and Politics 🗳️ (Views expressed are mine personally) contact: federalfalloutpod@gmail.com
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
18 injured after mobile lounge at Dulles Airport hits the Concourse D dock "at an angle," per MWAA. More on the developing situation: www.fox5dc.com/news/8-passe...
Dulles Airport mobile lounge hits dock, 17 injured
A mobile lounge transporting passengers to Concourse D at Dulles Airport struck the dock at an angle on Monday afternoon, injuring 17 people.
www.fox5dc.com
November 10, 2025 at 11:53 PM
18 injured after mobile lounge at Dulles Airport hits the Concourse D dock "at an angle," per MWAA. More on the developing situation: www.fox5dc.com/news/8-passe...
Even in a blue wave, current version of VA-5 not close to flipping
If Dems redistricting goes as planned, we’ll see if on table too
VA-1 and VA-2 would be changed if redistricting moves forward
Both likely flip in similar environment during midterms
If Dems redistricting goes as planned, we’ll see if on table too
VA-1 and VA-2 would be changed if redistricting moves forward
Both likely flip in similar environment during midterms
November 10, 2025 at 1:25 PM
Even in a blue wave, current version of VA-5 not close to flipping
If Dems redistricting goes as planned, we’ll see if on table too
VA-1 and VA-2 would be changed if redistricting moves forward
Both likely flip in similar environment during midterms
If Dems redistricting goes as planned, we’ll see if on table too
VA-1 and VA-2 would be changed if redistricting moves forward
Both likely flip in similar environment during midterms
This might seem like a small consolation
But there is end to RIFs for duration of funding bill
First time Congress has put any real limit on Trump in second term
Not just symbolic as protects thousands of jobs threatened by RIFs
But there is end to RIFs for duration of funding bill
First time Congress has put any real limit on Trump in second term
Not just symbolic as protects thousands of jobs threatened by RIFs
I’m guessing this helped get Kaine’s vote
He pushed to end RIFs for now
He pushed to end RIFs for now
November 10, 2025 at 2:00 AM
This might seem like a small consolation
But there is end to RIFs for duration of funding bill
First time Congress has put any real limit on Trump in second term
Not just symbolic as protects thousands of jobs threatened by RIFs
But there is end to RIFs for duration of funding bill
First time Congress has put any real limit on Trump in second term
Not just symbolic as protects thousands of jobs threatened by RIFs
The senior Senator from Virginia is a no on the funding bill
Warner is up for re-election next year and imagine would like to avoid primary
Most of Yes votes for Dems will be retiring or don’t have to worry about primary any time soon
Warner is up for re-election next year and imagine would like to avoid primary
Most of Yes votes for Dems will be retiring or don’t have to worry about primary any time soon
Warner breaks with Kaine on funding vote, though he praises RIF prohibitions
"I want nothing more than to reopen the government ...
“But I cannot support a deal that still leaves millions of Americans wondering how they are going to pay for their health care
"I want nothing more than to reopen the government ...
“But I cannot support a deal that still leaves millions of Americans wondering how they are going to pay for their health care
November 10, 2025 at 1:31 AM
The senior Senator from Virginia is a no on the funding bill
Warner is up for re-election next year and imagine would like to avoid primary
Most of Yes votes for Dems will be retiring or don’t have to worry about primary any time soon
Warner is up for re-election next year and imagine would like to avoid primary
Most of Yes votes for Dems will be retiring or don’t have to worry about primary any time soon
Tuesday is Veterans Day so a Federal holiday
If House can pass bill too, then guessing government fully reopens by Wednesday
Dems had good vibes since Tuesday night
But seem poised to return to “Dems in Disarray”
Still at least have election wins to build on
If House can pass bill too, then guessing government fully reopens by Wednesday
Dems had good vibes since Tuesday night
But seem poised to return to “Dems in Disarray”
Still at least have election wins to build on
November 10, 2025 at 1:04 AM
Tuesday is Veterans Day so a Federal holiday
If House can pass bill too, then guessing government fully reopens by Wednesday
Dems had good vibes since Tuesday night
But seem poised to return to “Dems in Disarray”
Still at least have election wins to build on
If House can pass bill too, then guessing government fully reopens by Wednesday
Dems had good vibes since Tuesday night
But seem poised to return to “Dems in Disarray”
Still at least have election wins to build on
If Kaine is a yes, votes are there to pass bill in Senate that will end shutdown
He was just re-elected and votes will probably come from retiring and less vulnerable Senators
Dems had a big night Tuesday, but also have to deal with reality of longest shutdown before holidays
He was just re-elected and votes will probably come from retiring and less vulnerable Senators
Dems had a big night Tuesday, but also have to deal with reality of longest shutdown before holidays
November 10, 2025 at 12:19 AM
If Kaine is a yes, votes are there to pass bill in Senate that will end shutdown
He was just re-elected and votes will probably come from retiring and less vulnerable Senators
Dems had a big night Tuesday, but also have to deal with reality of longest shutdown before holidays
He was just re-elected and votes will probably come from retiring and less vulnerable Senators
Dems had a big night Tuesday, but also have to deal with reality of longest shutdown before holidays
A post that summarizes a lot of the problems Virginia Republicans had this election
November 9, 2025 at 9:21 PM
A post that summarizes a lot of the problems Virginia Republicans had this election
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
Virginians I canvass vote for candidates of different races, ethnicities, and religions other than their own. We get the best candidates as a result.
Under appreciated strength of Black representation in Northern Virginia
From Spotsylvania to Fairfax border along I-95 will all be represented by Black delegates in House
Overall 10% of entire House will be Black delegates from NOVA
Region more diverse than often portrayed
From Spotsylvania to Fairfax border along I-95 will all be represented by Black delegates in House
Overall 10% of entire House will be Black delegates from NOVA
Region more diverse than often portrayed
November 9, 2025 at 7:33 PM
Virginians I canvass vote for candidates of different races, ethnicities, and religions other than their own. We get the best candidates as a result.
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
Virginia Republicans turn on each other after crushing losses
Virginia Republicans turn on each other after crushing losses
“They should have seen this coming,” said one county Republican.
dlvr.it
November 9, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Virginia Republicans turn on each other after crushing losses
Tom Davis hung on in the 2006 blue wave before retiring in 2008
Republicans would be wise to heed his advice
They have 1 year to do a course correction before midterms
Question if they learn any lessons or double down
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
Republicans would be wise to heed his advice
They have 1 year to do a course correction before midterms
Question if they learn any lessons or double down
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
November 9, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Tom Davis hung on in the 2006 blue wave before retiring in 2008
Republicans would be wise to heed his advice
They have 1 year to do a course correction before midterms
Question if they learn any lessons or double down
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
Republicans would be wise to heed his advice
They have 1 year to do a course correction before midterms
Question if they learn any lessons or double down
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
Under appreciated strength of Black representation in Northern Virginia
From Spotsylvania to Fairfax border along I-95 will all be represented by Black delegates in House
Overall 10% of entire House will be Black delegates from NOVA
Region more diverse than often portrayed
From Spotsylvania to Fairfax border along I-95 will all be represented by Black delegates in House
Overall 10% of entire House will be Black delegates from NOVA
Region more diverse than often portrayed
November 9, 2025 at 4:39 PM
Under appreciated strength of Black representation in Northern Virginia
From Spotsylvania to Fairfax border along I-95 will all be represented by Black delegates in House
Overall 10% of entire House will be Black delegates from NOVA
Region more diverse than often portrayed
From Spotsylvania to Fairfax border along I-95 will all be represented by Black delegates in House
Overall 10% of entire House will be Black delegates from NOVA
Region more diverse than often portrayed
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
Virginia House seats won by Democrats this century, out of the chamber's 100 seats:
in 2001: 32
in 2003: 34
in 2005: 40
in 2007: 44
in 2009: 39
in 2011: 32
in 2013: 33
in 2015: 34
in 2017: 49
in 2019: 55 (first Dem majority since 1999)
in 2021: 48
in 2023: 51
2025, i.e. this week: 64
in 2001: 32
in 2003: 34
in 2005: 40
in 2007: 44
in 2009: 39
in 2011: 32
in 2013: 33
in 2015: 34
in 2017: 49
in 2019: 55 (first Dem majority since 1999)
in 2021: 48
in 2023: 51
2025, i.e. this week: 64
November 9, 2025 at 3:04 AM
Virginia House seats won by Democrats this century, out of the chamber's 100 seats:
in 2001: 32
in 2003: 34
in 2005: 40
in 2007: 44
in 2009: 39
in 2011: 32
in 2013: 33
in 2015: 34
in 2017: 49
in 2019: 55 (first Dem majority since 1999)
in 2021: 48
in 2023: 51
2025, i.e. this week: 64
in 2001: 32
in 2003: 34
in 2005: 40
in 2007: 44
in 2009: 39
in 2011: 32
in 2013: 33
in 2015: 34
in 2017: 49
in 2019: 55 (first Dem majority since 1999)
in 2021: 48
in 2023: 51
2025, i.e. this week: 64
Interesting thought experiment
2017 Virginia election was as close as possible to generic Dem and generic Republican
Northam and Gillespie ran broadly competent campaigns
Result was Dem +9%
Still think Dems win by more this time, but campaign quality boosted Dem margin
2017 Virginia election was as close as possible to generic Dem and generic Republican
Northam and Gillespie ran broadly competent campaigns
Result was Dem +9%
Still think Dems win by more this time, but campaign quality boosted Dem margin
12 Major Reasons Why Abigail Spanberger (and VA Democrats) Won Huge on Tuesday (VA almost always goes opposite of the party in the White House; Trump was unpopular; "federal fallout"; Spanberger was a strong candidate & Earle-Sears was a weak one; etc.) bluevirginia.us/2025/11/12-m...
12 Major Reasons Why Abigail Spanberger (and VA Democrats) Won Huge on Tuesday
So why did Abigail Spanberger defeat Winsome Earle-Sears by nearly 15 points this past Tuesday? A bunch of reasons, of course, although I've definitely Let's start by looking at the exit poll data: A...
bluevirginia.us
November 8, 2025 at 11:41 PM
Interesting thought experiment
2017 Virginia election was as close as possible to generic Dem and generic Republican
Northam and Gillespie ran broadly competent campaigns
Result was Dem +9%
Still think Dems win by more this time, but campaign quality boosted Dem margin
2017 Virginia election was as close as possible to generic Dem and generic Republican
Northam and Gillespie ran broadly competent campaigns
Result was Dem +9%
Still think Dems win by more this time, but campaign quality boosted Dem margin
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
12 Major Reasons Why Abigail Spanberger (and VA Democrats) Won Huge on Tuesday (VA almost always goes opposite of the party in the White House; Trump was unpopular; "federal fallout"; Spanberger was a strong candidate & Earle-Sears was a weak one; etc.) bluevirginia.us/2025/11/12-m...
12 Major Reasons Why Abigail Spanberger (and VA Democrats) Won Huge on Tuesday
So why did Abigail Spanberger defeat Winsome Earle-Sears by nearly 15 points this past Tuesday? A bunch of reasons, of course, although I've definitely Let's start by looking at the exit poll data: A...
bluevirginia.us
November 8, 2025 at 10:34 PM
12 Major Reasons Why Abigail Spanberger (and VA Democrats) Won Huge on Tuesday (VA almost always goes opposite of the party in the White House; Trump was unpopular; "federal fallout"; Spanberger was a strong candidate & Earle-Sears was a weak one; etc.) bluevirginia.us/2025/11/12-m...
Still can’t believe they did this
I still don’t understand why they thought this would be good to use in an attack ad in Virginia
November 8, 2025 at 9:53 PM
Still can’t believe they did this
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
Early voting will be key in 2026. Remind friends NOW that voting early means they can avoid repeated knocks on their doors, text messages, emails, and whatnot, and Dems can focus resources on people who need to be persuaded to vote rather than those who like Election Day “ceremony”.
Some take aways from early vote in 2025
Both VA and NJ early vote tea leave reading did suggest Dems would do well
GOP can’t assume Election Day will come through in non-Presidential elections
Caution still warranted when analyzing EV but more votes will come in early
Both VA and NJ early vote tea leave reading did suggest Dems would do well
GOP can’t assume Election Day will come through in non-Presidential elections
Caution still warranted when analyzing EV but more votes will come in early
November 8, 2025 at 7:47 PM
Early voting will be key in 2026. Remind friends NOW that voting early means they can avoid repeated knocks on their doors, text messages, emails, and whatnot, and Dems can focus resources on people who need to be persuaded to vote rather than those who like Election Day “ceremony”.
Some take aways from early vote in 2025
Both VA and NJ early vote tea leave reading did suggest Dems would do well
GOP can’t assume Election Day will come through in non-Presidential elections
Caution still warranted when analyzing EV but more votes will come in early
Both VA and NJ early vote tea leave reading did suggest Dems would do well
GOP can’t assume Election Day will come through in non-Presidential elections
Caution still warranted when analyzing EV but more votes will come in early
November 8, 2025 at 7:21 PM
Some take aways from early vote in 2025
Both VA and NJ early vote tea leave reading did suggest Dems would do well
GOP can’t assume Election Day will come through in non-Presidential elections
Caution still warranted when analyzing EV but more votes will come in early
Both VA and NJ early vote tea leave reading did suggest Dems would do well
GOP can’t assume Election Day will come through in non-Presidential elections
Caution still warranted when analyzing EV but more votes will come in early
Federal Fallout on how Dems flipped 13 seats in Virginia House of Delegates
In NOVA, RVA, Hampton Roads, and SWVA
Including suburbs, exurbs, rural, wealthier, working class, and diverse
Candidates ran district specific campaigns which Dems can learn from
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
In NOVA, RVA, Hampton Roads, and SWVA
Including suburbs, exurbs, rural, wealthier, working class, and diverse
Candidates ran district specific campaigns which Dems can learn from
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
Episode 37: How Dems Flipped 13 Seats in House of Delegates
Podcast Episode · Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections · 11/08/2025 · 29m
podcasts.apple.com
November 8, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Federal Fallout on how Dems flipped 13 seats in Virginia House of Delegates
In NOVA, RVA, Hampton Roads, and SWVA
Including suburbs, exurbs, rural, wealthier, working class, and diverse
Candidates ran district specific campaigns which Dems can learn from
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
In NOVA, RVA, Hampton Roads, and SWVA
Including suburbs, exurbs, rural, wealthier, working class, and diverse
Candidates ran district specific campaigns which Dems can learn from
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
Important reminder that no trend is predetermined to continue either way
Dems made gains this year with diverse voters
Doesn’t mean it’s going to continue
But also doesn’t mean GOP 2024 gains will continue either
Every election is unique
Dems made gains this year with diverse voters
Doesn’t mean it’s going to continue
But also doesn’t mean GOP 2024 gains will continue either
Every election is unique
November 7, 2025 at 9:20 PM
Important reminder that no trend is predetermined to continue either way
Dems made gains this year with diverse voters
Doesn’t mean it’s going to continue
But also doesn’t mean GOP 2024 gains will continue either
Every election is unique
Dems made gains this year with diverse voters
Doesn’t mean it’s going to continue
But also doesn’t mean GOP 2024 gains will continue either
Every election is unique
It makes sense for Dems to be ambitious in Virginia in 2027 elections
But a lot of focus will be on State Senate which was not up in 2025
Dems have a lot of opportunities there
Dems got easier House targets this time and will be harder to flip more in 2027
But a lot of focus will be on State Senate which was not up in 2025
Dems have a lot of opportunities there
Dems got easier House targets this time and will be harder to flip more in 2027
November 7, 2025 at 4:26 PM
It makes sense for Dems to be ambitious in Virginia in 2027 elections
But a lot of focus will be on State Senate which was not up in 2025
Dems have a lot of opportunities there
Dems got easier House targets this time and will be harder to flip more in 2027
But a lot of focus will be on State Senate which was not up in 2025
Dems have a lot of opportunities there
Dems got easier House targets this time and will be harder to flip more in 2027
Federal Fallout pod with lessons from Virginia elections
Dems stayed focused on the economy
GOP was a little too online and lost the plot
Dems also organized to get out less engaged voters
GOP had issue party in power often with lower turnout
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
Dems stayed focused on the economy
GOP was a little too online and lost the plot
Dems also organized to get out less engaged voters
GOP had issue party in power often with lower turnout
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections
Politics Podcast · Updated Weekly · A podcast exploring the 2025 elections in Virginia and how the changes to the Federal government will influence them.
Views expressed are those of the host person...
podcasts.apple.com
November 7, 2025 at 2:06 PM
Federal Fallout pod with lessons from Virginia elections
Dems stayed focused on the economy
GOP was a little too online and lost the plot
Dems also organized to get out less engaged voters
GOP had issue party in power often with lower turnout
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
Dems stayed focused on the economy
GOP was a little too online and lost the plot
Dems also organized to get out less engaged voters
GOP had issue party in power often with lower turnout
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
Southwest Virginia turnout really sticks out
Some of the most “Trumpy” voters
GOP has not been able to figure out how to turn them out for non-presidential elections
Party in power always has turnout issue
Just more extreme with Trump coalition
Some of the most “Trumpy” voters
GOP has not been able to figure out how to turn them out for non-presidential elections
Party in power always has turnout issue
Just more extreme with Trump coalition
Per @vpapupdates, the lowest turnout relative to the statewide average was heavily in SWVA (Buchanan, Bristol, Norton, Lee, Wise, Norton, etc). Also low turnout in Norfolk, Hampton, Newport News. High turnout in Goochland, Powhatan, Hanover, Nelson, etc. bluevirginia.us/2025/11/poli...
November 7, 2025 at 12:40 AM
Southwest Virginia turnout really sticks out
Some of the most “Trumpy” voters
GOP has not been able to figure out how to turn them out for non-presidential elections
Party in power always has turnout issue
Just more extreme with Trump coalition
Some of the most “Trumpy” voters
GOP has not been able to figure out how to turn them out for non-presidential elections
Party in power always has turnout issue
Just more extreme with Trump coalition
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
Very helpful map from @pbump...what a difference four years - and who's in the White House - makes! bluevirginia.us/2025/11/thur...
November 6, 2025 at 11:01 PM
Very helpful map from @pbump...what a difference four years - and who's in the White House - makes! bluevirginia.us/2025/11/thur...
Lots of surprise “Spotsy” going blue
It has traditionally been thought of core GOP county
But growth down I-95 is putting it on outer edges of NOVA
Also an area feeling impact of Federal cuts and shutdown
Dems flipped House seat based here and knocked off long time incumbent
It has traditionally been thought of core GOP county
But growth down I-95 is putting it on outer edges of NOVA
Also an area feeling impact of Federal cuts and shutdown
Dems flipped House seat based here and knocked off long time incumbent
November 6, 2025 at 11:16 PM
Lots of surprise “Spotsy” going blue
It has traditionally been thought of core GOP county
But growth down I-95 is putting it on outer edges of NOVA
Also an area feeling impact of Federal cuts and shutdown
Dems flipped House seat based here and knocked off long time incumbent
It has traditionally been thought of core GOP county
But growth down I-95 is putting it on outer edges of NOVA
Also an area feeling impact of Federal cuts and shutdown
Dems flipped House seat based here and knocked off long time incumbent