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stephenwolf.bsky.social
Stephen Wolf
@stephenwolf.bsky.social
120K followers 260 following 2K posts
Contributor @the-downballot.com.
Democracy, voting rights, redistricting, and maps.
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stephenwolf.bsky.social
Yikes, somehow my "require alt text" setting got reset. Here's that image with it included
A graphic comparing two Maryland congressional maps: The one that Democrats enacted in 2012 on top and a hypothetical alternative gerrymander on the bottom. The map on the top was designed to elect a seven-to-one Democratic majority and has severely contorted district lines that became nationally infamous as an example of extreme gerrymandering. The hypothetical map has much neater district shapes but is an even more extreme eight-to-zero gerrymander.
November 10, 2025 at 9:06 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Maryland's 2012 congressional map looked obscene largely because Hoyer, Sarbanes, & Ruppersberger wanted key places in their seats, not maximal partisan advantage. Dems could've drawn a neater 8-0 map.

A good case for why you can't judge a gerrymander by shape alone www.dailykos.com/stories/2016...
November 10, 2025 at 8:56 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Virginia Dems won 64 of 100 House seats in 2025, their largest majority since they won 64 seats (+ 1 independent) in 1987.

The maps of those elections are drastically different (2025 on left). Darker colors represent flips.

(Wikipedia has maps going back decades) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Vi...
Map of the 2025 Virginia House of Delegates elections by party winner. Democratic districts are colored blue and Republicans are red. Darker colors represent flipped seats. Democrats won 64 seats, flipping 13. Almost every a Democratic seat is in the Northern Virginia, greater Richmond, or Hampton Roads regions. Republicans hold nearly every seat in central and western Virginia. Map of the 1987 Virginia House of Delegates elections by party winner. Democratic districts are colored blue and Republicans are red. Darker colors represent flipped seats. Democrats won 64 seats to Republicans’ 35. One gray seat denotes an independent who caucused with Democrats. Democrats won nearly every seat in Hampton Roads, the Southside region, and southwestern Virginia. Republicans won half the seats in Northern Virginia.
November 10, 2025 at 4:02 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
The Republican Senate majority is built on minority rule, enabled by unequal representation & the two-party system.

The GOP hasn’t won more total votes or represented more people than Dems since the 1990s. They’ve won the Senate in 7 of 13 elections since 2000 anyway
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
A graph of the U.S. Senate national popular vote from 1994 through 2024, showing the vote share margin between Democrats and Republicans and which party controlled the Senate. Starting in 2000, Republicans have won the Senate in 7 of 13 elections despite continually winning fewer collective votes than Democrats. A graph showing the percentage of the 50-state population represented by each party in the U.S. Senate from 1994 through 2024. Republicans have won the Senate in 8 of 14 elections since 1998 despite Democrats representing more Americans in each election.
November 10, 2025 at 1:12 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
The results by Georgia Senate district were similar:
2024 president (left) - 33-23 Trump majority
2025 PSC seat 3 (right) - 37-19 Dem majority

(Source: Preliminary 2025 election data uploaded to Dave’s Redistricting App by user OryxMaps)
Graphic comparing two sets of Georgia election results by state Senate district with the winning party’s margin shaded blue for Democrats and red for Republicans. Larger margins are shaded darker colors. The map on the left shows the 2024 presidential results, where Donald Trump won a 33-23 majority of seats. The map in the right shows the 2025 Public Service Commission seat 3 results, where the Democrat won a 37-19 majority of seats. Georgia’s map was gerrymandered by Republicans but not designed to withstand such a historic landslide.
November 8, 2025 at 5:31 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Dems won Georgia’s Public Service Commission elections by 25-point landslides—their largest for any office since 1998—and improved over 2024 everywhere.

These maps compare results by state House district for:
2024 president (left) - 96-84 Trump majority
2025 PSC seat 3 (right) - 115-65 Dem majority
Graphic comparing two sets of Georgia election results by state House district with the winning party’s margin shaded blue for Democrats and red for Republicans. Larger margins are shaded darker colors. The map on the left shows the 2024 presidential results, where Donald Trump won a 96-84 majority of seats. The map in the right shows the 2025 Public Service Commission seat 3 results, where the Democrat won a 115-65 majority of seats. Georgia’s map was gerrymandered by Republicans but not designed to withstand such a historic landslide.
November 8, 2025 at 5:31 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
State Sen. Willie Preston is running for Congress in a dark blue seat & has vocally opposed the Democratic push to redistrict Illinois to respond to GOP gerrymandering.

Now the Chicago Tribune reports on his history of pro-Trump & anti-Biden social media posts www.chicagotribune.com/2025/11/05/w...
Image of text from a Chicago Tribune story about Democratic state Senator Willie Preston that reads: “In October 2020, he called on Black men to “show up in droves and punish Joe Biden at the polls” and wrote that Trump had “earned the Black vote with his policies.” He congratulated Trump’s Supreme Court appointee, Amy Coney Barrett after her U.S. Senate confirmation and he argued her appointment was not scary. He also referred to the 2020 presidential contest as a “so-called election.””
November 6, 2025 at 1:01 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Andrew Cuomo—who likely cost Democrats control of the U.S. House in 2024 because of how he conspired to give Republicans control of the New York Senate—has lost the New York City mayor election
Screenshot of a NBC News article about Zohran Mamdani defeating Andrew Cuomo in the 2025 election for New York City mayor.
November 5, 2025 at 2:50 AM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
If Democrats get to redraw Virginia's congressional map in 2026, they could target 3-4 of the state's 5 Republicans.

A map like this one would likely elect a 10-1 Democratic majority next year davesredistricting.org/join/598f596...
Image of a hypothetical Virginia congressional map that is gerrymandered to elect a ten-to-one Democratic majority and flip four Republican seats in 2026. Nine of the districts are securely Democratic and shaded solid blue, one of the districts is overwhelmingly Republican and shaded dark red, and one district is narrowly Democratic-leaning and shaded light blue. An embedded chart shows the results of the 2024 presidential election in each district, with Kamala Harris winning nine districts by double-digit margins and the swing district by 3 percentage points. Republicans votes are wasted by being packed into a single district in western Virginia that Donald Trump won in a 55-point landslide. Black voters would retain their current ability to elect their chosen candidates in the safely Democratic 3rd and 4th districts in the Hampton Roads, Richmond, and Southside regions.
November 5, 2025 at 1:15 AM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Just noticed an oddity in this Washington Post story. “Initiated” is vague, but Illinois Dems haven’t made official moves toward redrawing their map yet like these other states that have passed maps or called special legislative sessions.

Follow @the-downballot.com for the latest redistricting news
Screenshot of text that says: “Republicans in Texas, Missouri, Ohio and North Carolina have adopted new maps with nine additional seats for the GOP, and an additional four Republican-led states have initiated efforts that could add another nine GOP-leaning districts to that tally.
California voters will decide Tuesday whether to endorse a Democratic-led plan to redraw boundaries there, which could add five Democratic-leaning seats. And Democrats in Virginia and Illinois have also initiated redistricting as a counterpunch to the Republican gerrymandering.”
November 4, 2025 at 5:09 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Dems could turn Maryland’s one safe Republican seat into a Kamala Harris+10 seat like on this map.

Contrary to Ferguson’s concerns, they could do it while increasing Black voting power, not diluting it.

But it’s unclear what MD’s GOP Supreme Court would allow
davesredistricting.org/join/fc524d3...
Image of a hypothetical Maryland congressional map that is gerrymandered to elect an eight-to-zero Democratic majority in 2026 and flip the Republican-held 1st District. Every district has a unique color and is overlaid atop a road map with county borders shown. An accompanying chart shows that Kamala Harris won all eight districts by at least 10 percentage points in 2024 including seven of those districts by at least 15 points. Three of the most heavily Democratic seats have majority-Black populations, an increase from two districts on the current map.
November 4, 2025 at 2:22 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Compare the Ohio GOP's new congressional gerrymander with a potential nonpartisan map in the post below.

This compromise may be a good for Dems since it avoids an even more extreme map with 13 safe GOP seats & just 2 Dems.

But it's still an aggressive gerrymander that violates Ohio's constitution
Image of the new congressional gerrymander enacted by Ohio Republicans in a compromise with Democrats to avoid a more extreme gerrymander. The districts are colored by the 2024 presidential margin with darker colors indicating larger margins. Donald Trump won 12 districts in red while Kamala Harris won just three districts in blue. Trump narrowly won the 1st District in Cincinnati while Harris narrowly won the 13th District in Akron. Both seats are held by Democrats, who also hold the more strongly Republican 9th District in Toledo. Democrats only have two safe districts in Cleveland and Columbus, respectively.
October 31, 2025 at 4:35 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
A congressional map that complied with the Ohio constitution's partisan balance requirement might look similar to this map.

Dems would get 6 Harris seats instead of 3, with 4 safe seats instead of 2. They'd likely be favored to win 7 in 2026 instead of 3-4
davesredistricting.org/join/d42c6ce...
Image of a hypothetical nonpartisan Ohio congressional map. The districts are shaded by the 2024 presidential winner's margin, with Donald Trump in red and Kamala Harris in blue. An embedded chart shows that Trump won nine districts to six for Harris. Democrats would likely be favored to win seven seats in 2026 due to an incumbent Democrat holding a narrowly Trump district. Compared to the GOP's new gerrymander: District 1 (Dem): Flips from narrowly Trump to safely Dem. District 5: (Rep): Flips from safely Trump to narrowly Harris. District 9: (Dem): Trump's margin drops from 11 percentage points to 3. District 12: (Rep): Flips from safely Trump to safely Harris. District 13: (Dem): Remains a very narrowly Harris seat.
October 31, 2025 at 4:27 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Ohio's GOP passed a new House gerrymander that targets 2 of 5 Dems—but Dems made a deal to avoid a more extreme 13-2 GOP map that could've made 3 Dem seats solidly red.

#OH01 goes from Harris+6 to Trump+3 & #OH09 goes from Trump+7 to Trump+11.

Interactive map davesredistricting.org/join/b25fb49...
Image of the new congressional gerrymander enacted by Ohio Republicans in a compromise with Democrats to avoid a more extreme gerrymander. The districts are colored by the 2024 presidential margin with darker colors indicating larger margins. Donald Trump won 12 districts in red while Kamala Harris won just three districts in blue. Trump narrowly won the 1st District in Cincinnati while Harris narrowly won the 13th District in Akron. Both seats are held by Democrats, who also hold the more strongly Republican 9th District in Toledo. Democrats only have two safe districts in Cleveland and Columbus, respectively.
October 31, 2025 at 3:45 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
An election system that regularly results in less than 10% turnout is not truly democratic
Norman Rockwell "Freedom of Speech" painting where the guy is standing up at a meeting and saying something unpopular.
October 31, 2025 at 3:17 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Maryland is one of the few states where Dems could redraw their House map to respond to GOP gerrymandering.

Every seats on this hypothetical map is at least Harris+10. Contrary to some Dems' concerns, this is possible while *adding* a third majority-Black seat davesredistricting.org/join/fc524d3...
Image of a hypothetical Maryland congressional map that is gerrymandered to elect an eight-to-zero Democratic majority in 2026 and flip the Republican-held 1st District. Every district has a unique color and is overlaid atop a road map with county borders shown. An accompanying chart shows that Kamala Harris won all eight districts by at least 10 percentage points in 2024 including seven of those districts by at least 15 points. Three of the most heavily Democratic seats have majority-Black populations, an increase from two districts on the current map.
October 31, 2025 at 2:41 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Oregon is one of the few states where Democrats could redraw their congressional map in 2026 in response to the GOP's nationwide gerrymandering effort.

Kamala Harris won every seat on this hypothetical map by double digits, & Dems would likely flip district 2 davesredistricting.org/join/24923d9...
Image of a hypothetical Oregon congressional map gerrymandered to elect six Democrats and eliminate the one remaining Republican seat in 2026, with every district shaded solidly blue. An embedded chart shows that Kamala Harris would have won every district by at least 10 percentage points. Harris won by at least 12 points in every Democratic-held district and by 10 points in the Republican-held 2nd District, which includes most of eastern and central Oregon along with part of eastern Portland.
October 29, 2025 at 3:12 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Fortunately, Illinois Democrats do NOT have to make this tradeoff to respond to GOP gerrymandering in other states.

They could still flip a GOP seat & secure a 15-2 majority while preserving 3 Black districts & 2 Latino districts like on this hypothetical map: davesredistricting.org/join/17349d2...
Map of a hypothetical Democratic gerrymander of Illinois' congressional map designed to turn the current 14-3 majority into a 15-2 majority in 2026. The districts are colored by the 2024 presidential winner's margin, with Harris in blue and Trump in red. The blue districts sprawl like pasta noodles across the northern half of the state to redistribute heavily blue parts of the Chicago area and use them to outvote heavily red rural areas. An accompanying chart shows that 15 districts would be securely blue while just two would be overwhelmingly red. The 1st, 2nd, and 7th districts would be predominantly Black, the 4th district would be majority Latino, and the 3rd district would be plurality white and 37% Latino. These racial demographics are similar in the existing versions of each of those districts.
October 27, 2025 at 9:00 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
If their plan succeeds, Virginia Dems could pass a congressional map to flip 4 GOP seats & elect a 10-1 Dem majority in response to the nationwide wave of new GOP gerrymanders.

My hypothetical map has 9 solid D seats, 1 safe R, & 1 swing seat. Interactive map:
davesredistricting.org/join/598f596...
Image of a hypothetical Virginia congressional map that is gerrymandered to elect a ten-to-one Democratic majority and flip four Republican seats in 2026. Nine of the districts are securely Democratic and shaded solid blue, one of the districts is overwhelmingly Republican and shaded dark red, and one district is narrowly Democratic-leaning and shaded light blue. An embedded chart shows the results of the 2024 presidential election in each district, with Kamala Harris winning nine districts by double-digit margins and the swing district by 3 percentage points. Republicans votes are wasted by being packed into a single district in western Virginia that Donald Trump won in a 55-point landslide. Black voters would retain their current ability to elect their chosen candidates in the safely Democratic 3rd and 4th districts in the Hampton Roads, Richmond, and Southside regions.
October 27, 2025 at 12:01 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
On the Illinois map above, Harris won 15 seats by at least 9 percentage points & 11 of those by >15 points. Districts 1, 2, & 7 are >47% Black, 4 is 54% Latino, & 3 is 37% Latino CVAP.

Harris' margin in the battleground districts:
6: +10
8: +15
9: +17
10: +15
11: +10
13: +15
14: +10
16: +17
17: +9
A graph of the 2024 presidential results by district for a hypothetical congressional gerrymander of Illinois designed to elect a 15-2 Democratic majority in 2026. Fourteen districts are securely Democratic but not overwhelmingly so in order to spread out their voters efficiently, only one Democratic district is dark blue, and Republicans are packed into just two dark red districts to waste their votes.
October 24, 2025 at 2:46 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Illinois is 1 of few states where Dems could pass a new 2026 House map to respond to GOP gerrymanders, but its 14-3 map is already aggressive.

Flipping a GOP seat while preserving Black & Latino voting power is hard yet doable as shown below.

Interactive map: davesredistricting.org/join/17349d2...
Map of a hypothetical Democratic gerrymander of Illinois' congressional map designed to turn the current 14-3 majority into a 15-2 majority in 2026. The districts are colored by the 2024 presidential winner's margin, with Harris in blue and Trump in red. 15 districts would be securely blue while just two would be overwhelmingly red. The blue districts sprawl like pasta noodles across the northern half of the state to redistribute heavily blue parts of the Chicago area and use them to outvote heavily red rural areas. Map of a hypothetical Democratic gerrymander of Illinois' congressional map designed to turn the current 14-3 majority into a 15-2 majority in 2026. Each district has a unique color and is shown alongside the county boundaries. 15 districts would be securely blue while just two would be overwhelmingly red. Several districts sprawl like pasta noodles across the northern half of the state to redistribute heavily blue parts of the Chicago area and use them to outvote heavily red rural areas. Map of a hypothetical Democratic gerrymander of Illinois' congressional map designed to turn the current 14-3 majority into a 15-2 majority in 2026, with the image focusing on northern and central Illinois. Each district has a unique color and is shown alongside the county boundaries. 15 districts would be securely blue while just two would be overwhelmingly red. Several districts sprawl like pasta noodles across the northern half of the state to redistribute heavily blue parts of the Chicago area and use them to outvote heavily red rural areas. Map of a hypothetical Democratic gerrymander of Illinois' congressional map designed to turn the current 14-3 majority into a 15-2 majority in 2026, with the image focusing on the greater Chicago area. Each district has a unique color and is shown alongside the county boundaries. 15 districts would be securely blue while just two would be overwhelmingly red. Several districts sprawl like pasta noodles across the northern half of the state to redistribute heavily blue parts of the Chicago area and use them to outvote heavily red rural areas.
October 24, 2025 at 2:46 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Only Virginia's governor or 2/3 legislative supermajorities can call a special legislative session, and Democrats don't have either.

But the NYT reports Dems were able to save the GOP governor's May call for a special session for a later date. Simple majorities can advance constitutional amendments
Excerpt from a New York Times story about Virginia redistricting. The text says: "The Virginia redistricting process is set to begin Thursday afternoon when Democratic leaders in the General Assembly convene legislators for a session to begin Monday. Democrats can convene lawmakers to address the congressional maps now on an administrative technicality: Gov. Glenn Youngkin called a special session in May 2024, which Democratic legislators left open. That left the authority to reconvene the chambers to the speaker of the House of Delegates and the chair of the State Senate’s Rules committee."
October 23, 2025 at 4:08 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
North Carolina’s GOP just enacted a new congressional gerrymander to win an 11-3 GOP majority in a swing state by targeting Black Dem Don Davis.

They already gerrymandered a 10-4 edge in 2024 by replacing a fairer map that split 7-7 in 2022.

Interactive map: davesredistricting.org/join/3f06a7f...
Image of a gerrymandered congressional map enacted by North Carolina Republicans for 2026 that was drawn to elect an 11-to-3 Republican majority in this swing state. The districts are colored by the 2024 presidential winner's margin. Donald Trump won the 11 red districts by strong but not overwhelming margins while Kamala Harris won 3 districts by lopsided margins. Trump won 9 of the red districts by at least 14 percentage points, one more seat by 12 points, and the final seat by 9.5 points. He won North Carolina overall by just over 3 points.
October 22, 2025 at 4:51 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Republicans drew 3 times as many congressional districts as Dems did.

Republicans in Congress & on SCOTUS unanimously blocked Dems from ending gerrymandering nationwide multiple times in recent years.

Republicans could end gerrymandering today if they chose to, but they want even more extreme maps
A cartogram showing the partisan intent behind congressional redistricting in every state, with each state’s size corresponding to how many districts it has. The graphic illustrates how Republicans gerrymandered states with 42% of districts in red, which is three times as many as the 14% of districts that Democrats gerrymandered in blue. The remaining 43% of districts are in yellow states where a court, commission, or divided legislature drew a relatively neutral map.
October 20, 2025 at 4:30 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
The Declaration of Independence specifies 27 grievances with King George III and Britain.

Donald Trump and his regime have committed at least 20 of those same offenses highlighted in yellow.
#NoKings
An image of a list of the 27 grievances against King George III in the Declaration of Independence. Donald Trump's regime has committed at least 20 of them in whole or in part, condensed into the list below: 1. He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good. 2. He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of representation … 3. He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing … his invasions on the rights of the people. 4. He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; … obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners … 5. He has obstructed the Administration of Justice … 6. He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices … 7. He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance. 8. He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures. 9. He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power. 10. He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution … giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation: 11. For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us: 12. For protecting them … from punishment for any Murders which they should commit … 13. For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world: 14. For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent: 15. For depriving us … of the benefits of Trial by Jury: 16. For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences: 17. For … abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments: 18. He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us. 19. He has … destroyed the lives of our people. 20. He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us …
October 18, 2025 at 2:47 PM