John Oxley
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joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
John Oxley
@joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
Commentator, writer, corporate/political strategy. Undertaking an MSc in International Security and Global Governance at Birkbeck.

The only Tory on Bluesky, but that's why you love me.

Newsletter at: www.joxleywrites.jmoxley.co.uk
Pinned
And just think, you can read me being right about everything for less than a central London pint a month..

www.joxleywrites.jmoxley.co.uk
Again relevant to the Guardian piece and all the one handed typing about civil wars.
Cute that he thinks a civil war will be against a clearly defined ideological enemy and not whatever local militia decides they need your car.
that's cool, man, but have you tried the taste of a refreshing matcha latte
January 4, 2026 at 3:14 PM
Didn't realise how much the dollar had devalued recently.
January 4, 2026 at 10:04 AM
Reposted by John Oxley
I think what China understood and the rest of the world has been slow to do is that Trump is running a protection racket more than a trade or foreign policy.

He wants the payoffs more than the invasion or regime change.
January 4, 2026 at 7:35 AM
I think in this day and age they shouldn't have separate competitions based on your sexuality.
January 3, 2026 at 9:37 PM
Being cultured.
January 3, 2026 at 8:34 PM
Repositioning myself as "Centrifuge salesman" for 2026.
The incentives for states to acquire nuclear weapons are a lot stronger in a “might makes right” world.
January 3, 2026 at 8:11 PM
Tell you what, someone is going to make a banging LinkedIn post on Monday to try and flog their business continuity consulting services.
January 3, 2026 at 7:12 PM
"It's important to remember that Venezuela is an inexpensive injection-moulded plastic shell about 65 centimetres (2 ft) long, which produces a loud monotone note typically around B b 3 [2] (the first B b below middle C). [3]"
Badenoch has a remarkable ability to be rebarbative in any context. The first sentence here is totally unnecessary.
January 3, 2026 at 4:13 PM
It's the political dynamic of the con victim. Jumping through hoops to retcon themselves rather than admit they have been had.
As re the bombing of Iran last year expect support from Republicans to rise immediately as the issue polarises.
Some polling:
Invading Venezuela - 19% approve, 60% disapprove
OK to go w/o Congressional approval - 11% yes, 74% no
👇
January 3, 2026 at 3:14 PM
Broke: Nationalise the banks

Woke: Nationalise your spank bank
Gabriel is right, unfortunately as a long time McSweeney watcher the conclusion here is obvious.

The government must produce porn.
X undoubtedly still has a huge audience. But the algo isn't showing junk like that Defra video to anyone. If it's not rage bait or porn your content is not being seen by anyone.
January 3, 2026 at 10:16 AM
As I was saying:
Remember when we thought 2016 was the worst year ever because a few prominent celebrities died in the first few weeks?
January 3, 2026 at 9:57 AM
Also, remember this is connected to the political culture that sees European governments resisting the rise of the far right as illegitimate, too.
January 3, 2026 at 9:56 AM
Watching BBC coverage and discussion of "What is the plan?" is making *BOLD* assumptions about this administration.
January 3, 2026 at 9:44 AM
Anyway, B'sky doesn't do the balloons thing, so I have to be nakedly transparent. It is my birthday today*, give me attention.

*And also Kemi Badenoch's.
January 2, 2026 at 5:56 PM
January 2, 2026 at 5:52 PM
Who had "1.31 on the 2nd" in the SBHP 2026 Sweepstake?
Just been added to this list, which makes a pleasant change from the 'you fool! You woke, you imbecile! Don't you understand that the kids don't care about woke!' whenever I go 'eight hours per book, though?'
January 2, 2026 at 5:13 PM
Men literally want one thing and it's fucking disgusting:
January 2, 2026 at 3:39 PM
This is true in different ways of the Tories. I'd also add that its a consequence of coming from organisations that often don't have to deliver complex products or concrete outcomes.
Agree with this. A consequence of the fact most people in politics only have experience of small organisations is that they think 'huh, this institution sort has its own soul and patterns of behaviour' is a novel insight unique to the state and not a 'no kidding!' one.
Not to go all third way, but I think you can believe both that public bureaucracies tend to groupthink and stasis AND that political operatives cannot just declare that, shout at them, and imagine this will answer the problems.
January 2, 2026 at 3:13 PM
Would love to read a book that explored the similar, slightly odd but much loved, mini celebs of various countries and what it says about their culture.
I am a historian of contemporary Britain, with an interest in political and pop cultural history. I grew up in Australia, but lived in the UK in the early 2000s. From this, I feel like I know quite a bit about random celeb figures in the UK. But I've still had to, in the past, Google the following:
January 2, 2026 at 11:10 AM
Oh well, at least we made operating a small forum so potentially legally onerous a load of people gave up.
This does seem just a little bit bad! Idk the sort of thing you’d think politicians might distance themselves from or something!
January 2, 2026 at 11:08 AM
It's telling in a lot of this they never engage with any sort of institutional or political theory beyond the sorts of books you see at airport WHSmiths.
The big picture flaw in the piece is that PO doesn't care enough about policy or indeed ideas. (This is v clear in the worked examples.) So the 'why is this central government's business anyway?' question never occurs, it's just 'how dare this get in my grid' ranting.
January 2, 2026 at 10:56 AM
Its also a perpetual fantasy that you are one Superman away from fixing everyone, and invariably they are that Superman - which just totally fails to understand how complex governing and government is.
Just like the Tories, Labour's centrist hacks think themselves omniscient and infallible - they cannot fail, they can only be failed. So when they do fail, they blame everyone else.

We saw it with the Tories, and it's already started from the Starmerites with this idiotic dreck: archive.ph/rHoXA
January 2, 2026 at 8:37 AM
Also, people (generally) like regulations and usually want more of them.
I don't think the "stakeholder state" is useful framing but the "regulatory state" has grown massively.

It's not a conspiracy against govt though but a function of centralisation (and privatisation). Ministers can't cope with responsibility for everything so set up agencies and regulators.
January 2, 2026 at 8:33 AM
Reposted by John Oxley
This is just a massive whinge that governments have to actually government day-to-day in addition to pursuing their policies. That's why smart politicians actually use their time in opposition to think things through because government is too hectic. Didn't do the job properly then, won't do it now
What the fuck is he on about? When has the government got distracted by demands for colonial reparations?? How does a diplomatic meeting with a foreign leader count as a derailing distraction?
January 2, 2026 at 8:06 AM
Reposted by John Oxley
“The Navy should explore using high-powered water cannons—also known as firefighting monitors—as ship-based counter-UAS (cUAS) weapons.”
That is actually quite clever and I must admit I haven’t seen this before, is anyone aware of existing systems?

www.usni.org/magazines/pr...
Wash the Sky Clean of Drones
Firefighting monitors would be a simple weapon that could operate as long as the ship has power.
www.usni.org
January 1, 2026 at 8:58 PM