John Oxley
@joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
Commentator, writer, corporate/political strategy. Undertaking an MSc in International Security and Global Governance at Birkbeck.
The only Tory on Bluesky, but that's why you love me.
Newsletter at: www.joxleywrites.jmoxley.co.uk
The only Tory on Bluesky, but that's why you love me.
Newsletter at: www.joxleywrites.jmoxley.co.uk
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www.joxleywrites.jmoxley.co.uk
Had about a thousand new followers here recently, so just re-upping and posting for pinning purposes that I have a weekly newsletter - with every other post free to read.
www.joxleywrites.jmoxley.co.uk
www.joxleywrites.jmoxley.co.uk
Likewise it's a bit of a class tell when people my age talk of their parents going to university without fees, especially if it's both of them.
I also think there's an additional coda to this which is that "I was the first person in my family to go to university" isn't even that unusual, it's very much the norm until the 1980s, surely? Even today only about 40 percent of school leavers go on to do a degree.
Matt Goodwin makes a living out of railing against university educated elites & his whole schtick is "he was the first person in his family to go to university", which is a bit weird given that his Dad, now being heavily invoked for his Manchester connection, appears to have a string of degrees.
January 27, 2026 at 8:14 PM
Likewise it's a bit of a class tell when people my age talk of their parents going to university without fees, especially if it's both of them.
It also shows that Reform is, despite it's protestations, the most "small clique in Westminster" party of the lot.
It's actually quite a risky move for Goodwin because even if he does win this time (entirely possible but not certain) it will be a tricky one to hold in a general.
January 27, 2026 at 2:47 PM
It also shows that Reform is, despite it's protestations, the most "small clique in Westminster" party of the lot.
"Who left the gate open at the c**t farm?"
The Telegraph’s political editor is saying, more subtly, what others are saying brutally.
January 27, 2026 at 12:58 PM
"Who left the gate open at the c**t farm?"
Broke: Britain is a two party political system
Woke: Britain is now a two bloc, multiparty system
Bespoke: Britain is a one party system and that party is Nimbyism.
Woke: Britain is now a two bloc, multiparty system
Bespoke: Britain is a one party system and that party is Nimbyism.
January 27, 2026 at 11:29 AM
Broke: Britain is a two party political system
Woke: Britain is now a two bloc, multiparty system
Bespoke: Britain is a one party system and that party is Nimbyism.
Woke: Britain is now a two bloc, multiparty system
Bespoke: Britain is a one party system and that party is Nimbyism.
This made me curious about the trajectory of Biggles, and it turns out... the original author was making it woke?
January 27, 2026 at 9:29 AM
This made me curious about the trajectory of Biggles, and it turns out... the original author was making it woke?
I refused to read them at the time, being the little contrarian I'm sure you can imagine me as.
i was hating harry potter before it was cool to hate harry potter
oh wait. it was always cool to hate harry potter
oh wait. it was always cool to hate harry potter
January 27, 2026 at 8:54 AM
I refused to read them at the time, being the little contrarian I'm sure you can imagine me as.
Reposted by John Oxley
Suella Braverman and her fellow Tory–Reform defectors are not conservatives but radicals — ready to charge at any fence blocking their path to victory. The purpose of the fence can be worked out later.
🔗: www.himbonomics.com/p/reform-uk-...
🔗: www.himbonomics.com/p/reform-uk-...
January 27, 2026 at 7:56 AM
Suella Braverman and her fellow Tory–Reform defectors are not conservatives but radicals — ready to charge at any fence blocking their path to victory. The purpose of the fence can be worked out later.
🔗: www.himbonomics.com/p/reform-uk-...
🔗: www.himbonomics.com/p/reform-uk-...
Reposted by John Oxley
Doing so rewards Russia for genocidal and imperialist violence, and tells any authoritarian leader that they can do what they want.
The Trump admin has indicated to Ukraine that US security guarantees are contingent on Kyiv first agreeing a peace deal that would likely involve ceding the Donbas region to Russia…
Scoop with FT comrades
@maxseddon.bsky.social
@henryjfoy.ft.com
@a-mackinnon.bsky.social
Scoop with FT comrades
@maxseddon.bsky.social
@henryjfoy.ft.com
@a-mackinnon.bsky.social
US links security guarantees for Ukraine to peace deal ceding territory
[FREE TO READ] Washington signalled Kyiv would receive more backing after any withdrawal from the Donbas, say people familiar with talks
as.ft.com
January 27, 2026 at 7:45 AM
Doing so rewards Russia for genocidal and imperialist violence, and tells any authoritarian leader that they can do what they want.
Every party must have their brand of fiscal nimbyism.
I’ve joined over 100 MPs calling on the Government to finally do the right thing for WASPI women. Women born in the 1950s were harmed by pension changes made without proper notice. Despite the Ombudsman’s findings, ministers are still delaying fair compensation.
I will keep pushing for justice.
I will keep pushing for justice.
January 26, 2026 at 10:46 PM
Every party must have their brand of fiscal nimbyism.
Ultimately a lot of these people were on the wrong side of the trajectory because they refused to punch their own side too hard.
The culture change that the Conservative left need to pull this off is to become just a *little* bit more like the Labour right (and vice versa):
Former Tory heavyweights launch new centre-right movement
Prosper UK aims to pull Conservative party back to middle ground and counter rise of Reform UK
www.ft.com
January 26, 2026 at 4:22 PM
Ultimately a lot of these people were on the wrong side of the trajectory because they refused to punch their own side too hard.
Reposted by John Oxley
The political press very clearly understands “truth” as a social agreement, a compromise position between everyone important enough to have an opinion. It did not reflect on how this would allow dedicated liars to go all-in on lies again and again and dramatically shift the position.
my emerging theory is that the political press literally does not believe in objective reality in any meaningful sense. there is only what A says and what B says and how that affects the horse race
January 26, 2026 at 1:31 PM
The political press very clearly understands “truth” as a social agreement, a compromise position between everyone important enough to have an opinion. It did not reflect on how this would allow dedicated liars to go all-in on lies again and again and dramatically shift the position.
Also, Reform's willingness to piss off its worst Twitter elements show it *does* have a knack for courting electability.
I think people are broadly right that the public don't process these defections as "failures keep joining Reform" so much as "Reform are clearly doing well to have people join them" but there must surely be a limit to that.
New: Nigel Farage unveils Suella Braverman, former Home Secretary, as his latest defector
January 26, 2026 at 3:16 PM
Also, Reform's willingness to piss off its worst Twitter elements show it *does* have a knack for courting electability.
Again why the next leadership election is probably a Churchill/Halifax dynamic.
There's a serious point to be made as to how much Kemi's 'burn the bridges and salt the earth' approach is going to affect the possibility of a Tory / Reform electoral pact.
Suppose the obvious answer is she won't be around to get in the way by then.
Suppose the obvious answer is she won't be around to get in the way by then.
not sure this is the classiest response from the Tories to the latest defection to Reform UK
January 26, 2026 at 2:12 PM
Again why the next leadership election is probably a Churchill/Halifax dynamic.
Reform Party 🤝Your mum
Is there anyone Reform would turn down, at this point, do we think?
January 26, 2026 at 12:40 PM
Reform Party 🤝Your mum
Not sure I have much faith in there being a full reconciliation and redress system after all this, but Bovino and Miller are both pitching for "the one guy who gets made an example of".
Bovino: "When politicians, community leaders, & some journalists engage in that heated rhetoric we keep talking about, when they make the choice to vilify law enforcement calling law enforcement 'Gestapo' or using the term 'kidnapping,' that is a choice & there are actions & consequences."
January 26, 2026 at 7:27 AM
Not sure I have much faith in there being a full reconciliation and redress system after all this, but Bovino and Miller are both pitching for "the one guy who gets made an example of".
Reposted by John Oxley
Here's a regular white guy (literally "Chad") not a protester. because, "It seemed pointless, or just a way for people to expiate their sense of guilt." Chad witnessed something shattering. And, that all changed in a moment.
Excellent article!
Excellent article!
January 26, 2026 at 4:33 AM
Here's a regular white guy (literally "Chad") not a protester. because, "It seemed pointless, or just a way for people to expiate their sense of guilt." Chad witnessed something shattering. And, that all changed in a moment.
Excellent article!
Excellent article!
Reposted by John Oxley
the only good Tory account on Bluesky, i say
Bonk.
January 25, 2026 at 8:09 PM
the only good Tory account on Bluesky, i say
We have friends in the US, have visited several times and almost certainly would have gone again before 2029 but now resolutely won't.
"I've booked and will go [to the #US]
10.4%
I've booked but won't go
1.4%
I am happy to go there
14.9%
I would not travel there
73.3%"
10.4%
I've booked but won't go
1.4%
I am happy to go there
14.9%
I would not travel there
73.3%"
January 25, 2026 at 6:53 PM
We have friends in the US, have visited several times and almost certainly would have gone again before 2029 but now resolutely won't.
Against the scroungers and the criminals, unless they are doing a racism.
Separate to the rest of this conversation, it was grimly amusing to watch people cheer on last years rioters as the true Volk, who when prosecuted revealed their really long rap sheets
Because obviously. Who else is getting pissed and looting a shoe zone at 4pm on a Monday
Because obviously. Who else is getting pissed and looting a shoe zone at 4pm on a Monday
It's truly been wild seeing the people everyone knows cause trouble for the rest of society being rewritten as just concerned citizens and the voice of the volk, and this being presented as the 'small-c conservative' thing to do
January 25, 2026 at 4:03 PM
Against the scroungers and the criminals, unless they are doing a racism.
Reposted by John Oxley
Normally I defend the people Mountain Rescue picks up - there is no shame in it.
In this case, however, they sound like proper tossers who have cost the service well over £150.
You can donate to Wasdale Mountain Rescue here: www.wmrt.org.uk
In this case, however, they sound like proper tossers who have cost the service well over £150.
You can donate to Wasdale Mountain Rescue here: www.wmrt.org.uk
Rescued Scafell Pike hikers urged to pay hotel bill and return head torches
Wasdale mountain rescue team says ‘we struggle to understand when the rescued take advantage of hospitality’
www.theguardian.com
January 25, 2026 at 2:12 PM
Normally I defend the people Mountain Rescue picks up - there is no shame in it.
In this case, however, they sound like proper tossers who have cost the service well over £150.
You can donate to Wasdale Mountain Rescue here: www.wmrt.org.uk
In this case, however, they sound like proper tossers who have cost the service well over £150.
You can donate to Wasdale Mountain Rescue here: www.wmrt.org.uk
Which kind of shows how much of our lives could be decided by self-justifying explanations of 50 votes here and there, rather than trends and underlying data.
The outcome of this by-election will almost certainly define government policy for the next three years.
If Reform wins, expect Blue Labour to ramp up
If it's the Greens, the growing calls for a leftwing pivot will be vindicated and those voices around the Cabinet table will push for a rethink
If Reform wins, expect Blue Labour to ramp up
If it's the Greens, the growing calls for a leftwing pivot will be vindicated and those voices around the Cabinet table will push for a rethink
It's clear that the Green Party are the way to keep Reform out of Manchester.
We are already on the ground in Gorton and Denton - and we are going to be campaigning for every single vote.
A new Green MP representing the community.
Let's go!
Join.greenparty.org.uk
We are already on the ground in Gorton and Denton - and we are going to be campaigning for every single vote.
A new Green MP representing the community.
Let's go!
Join.greenparty.org.uk
January 25, 2026 at 2:36 PM
Which kind of shows how much of our lives could be decided by self-justifying explanations of 50 votes here and there, rather than trends and underlying data.
I once heard of a Tory constituency grumbling about deselecting a PPC because his wife wasn't suitably enthusiastic about the tombola at a church fête.
Quite fun whenever you dig into Labour neuroses, it’s never about some colossal ideological difference but some absolute nonsense in 2009
January 25, 2026 at 12:43 PM
I once heard of a Tory constituency grumbling about deselecting a PPC because his wife wasn't suitably enthusiastic about the tombola at a church fête.