Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de
Russia & Economics
All views private
German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP Berlin)
Picture: Tamek Kowalski
All views private
German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP Berlin)
Picture: Tamek Kowalski
The financial situation of Russia's pension system improved a lot since 2017, saving the budget 2% of GDP in spending (almost 10% of federal budget spending). The reasons were:
1.) Increasing the pension age
2.) High Covid-19 death rate
3.) Increasing real wages > higher contributions
1.) Increasing the pension age
2.) High Covid-19 death rate
3.) Increasing real wages > higher contributions
February 9, 2026 at 3:28 PM
The financial situation of Russia's pension system improved a lot since 2017, saving the budget 2% of GDP in spending (almost 10% of federal budget spending). The reasons were:
1.) Increasing the pension age
2.) High Covid-19 death rate
3.) Increasing real wages > higher contributions
1.) Increasing the pension age
2.) High Covid-19 death rate
3.) Increasing real wages > higher contributions
Federal budget subsidies to the Russian social security system. Pension subsidies fluctuate a lot. They are occasionally used as a buffer to make sure that the federal budget balance comes in on target.
February 9, 2026 at 12:42 PM
Federal budget subsidies to the Russian social security system. Pension subsidies fluctuate a lot. They are occasionally used as a buffer to make sure that the federal budget balance comes in on target.
Reposted by Janis Kluge
Russia's fiscal situation is worse than expected: The consolidated budget had a deficit of nearly 4% of GDP in 2025. Regions are under pressure from increasing war costs. Social funds were forced to draw down their reserves after federal transfers were cut. Read: open.substack.com/pub/janisklu...
Russia’s consolidated budget deficit reached almost 4% of GDP in 2025
As Russian regions shoulder more war costs and social security funds are depleted, the consolidated budget balance has deteriorated far more than expected.
open.substack.com
February 7, 2026 at 2:42 PM
Russia's fiscal situation is worse than expected: The consolidated budget had a deficit of nearly 4% of GDP in 2025. Regions are under pressure from increasing war costs. Social funds were forced to draw down their reserves after federal transfers were cut. Read: open.substack.com/pub/janisklu...
Updated my Substack to reflect this important point: Very low subsidies to the social funds late in the year were a big reason why Russian federal budget spending seemed so strangely low late in 2025. See last paragraph: janiskluge.substack.com/p/russias-co...
February 7, 2026 at 7:50 PM
Updated my Substack to reflect this important point: Very low subsidies to the social funds late in the year were a big reason why Russian federal budget spending seemed so strangely low late in 2025. See last paragraph: janiskluge.substack.com/p/russias-co...
Russia's fiscal situation is worse than expected: The consolidated budget had a deficit of nearly 4% of GDP in 2025. Regions are under pressure from increasing war costs. Social funds were forced to draw down their reserves after federal transfers were cut. Read: open.substack.com/pub/janisklu...
Russia’s consolidated budget deficit reached almost 4% of GDP in 2025
As Russian regions shoulder more war costs and social security funds are depleted, the consolidated budget balance has deteriorated far more than expected.
open.substack.com
February 7, 2026 at 2:42 PM
Russia's fiscal situation is worse than expected: The consolidated budget had a deficit of nearly 4% of GDP in 2025. Regions are under pressure from increasing war costs. Social funds were forced to draw down their reserves after federal transfers were cut. Read: open.substack.com/pub/janisklu...
Russia's regional budget deficits increased significantly in 2025, reaching 1.5 trillion RUB. The reason: Increased war financing from the regions and lower profit tax revenue. Regional spending rose by 10%, while regional revenues increased by only 5%.
February 6, 2026 at 4:08 PM
Russia's regional budget deficits increased significantly in 2025, reaching 1.5 trillion RUB. The reason: Increased war financing from the regions and lower profit tax revenue. Regional spending rose by 10%, while regional revenues increased by only 5%.
Neues aus der Berliner Zeitung: BSW-Politiker wird als Gasexperte verkauft und sagt Russengas ist auch nicht schlechter.
February 5, 2026 at 10:18 PM
Neues aus der Berliner Zeitung: BSW-Politiker wird als Gasexperte verkauft und sagt Russengas ist auch nicht schlechter.
Looks like German manufacturing has turned the corner.
www.destatis.de/EN/Press/202...
www.destatis.de/EN/Press/202...
February 5, 2026 at 12:55 PM
Looks like German manufacturing has turned the corner.
www.destatis.de/EN/Press/202...
www.destatis.de/EN/Press/202...
In late 2025, many Russian regions lowered their recruitment bonuses, most likely because of budget pressures. Now, they are increasing them again, and the average regional bonus (in my dataset) has reached a new high of 1.44 million rubles.
February 4, 2026 at 5:12 PM
In late 2025, many Russian regions lowered their recruitment bonuses, most likely because of budget pressures. Now, they are increasing them again, and the average regional bonus (in my dataset) has reached a new high of 1.44 million rubles.
Just 393.3 billion rubles in oil and gas revenue for Russia's budget in January. That is the lowest figure since the 2020 Covid oil price crash - in nominal terms, not considering inflation etc.
February 4, 2026 at 11:45 AM
Just 393.3 billion rubles in oil and gas revenue for Russia's budget in January. That is the lowest figure since the 2020 Covid oil price crash - in nominal terms, not considering inflation etc.
Russian oil and gas revenue was just 2.0% of GDP in January. If I'm not mistaken, that is a record low for the whole Putin era (since 2000). Here is the data since 2011.
February 4, 2026 at 11:42 AM
Russian oil and gas revenue was just 2.0% of GDP in January. If I'm not mistaken, that is a record low for the whole Putin era (since 2000). Here is the data since 2011.
Nur noch der Krieg.
Witkoff ist ein Genie!
Witkoff ist ein Genie!
January 22, 2026 at 3:22 PM
Nur noch der Krieg.
Witkoff ist ein Genie!
Witkoff ist ein Genie!
Trump's Greenland narrative is almost a 1:1 copy of Putin's Crimea narrative:
"It belonged to us in the past. Stupid leaders gave it away for no good reason. Now we want it back. We need it for our security. We need to protect it. It will be best for the people who live there."
"It belonged to us in the past. Stupid leaders gave it away for no good reason. Now we want it back. We need it for our security. We need to protect it. It will be best for the people who live there."
January 22, 2026 at 9:49 AM
Trump's Greenland narrative is almost a 1:1 copy of Putin's Crimea narrative:
"It belonged to us in the past. Stupid leaders gave it away for no good reason. Now we want it back. We need it for our security. We need to protect it. It will be best for the people who live there."
"It belonged to us in the past. Stupid leaders gave it away for no good reason. Now we want it back. We need it for our security. We need to protect it. It will be best for the people who live there."
Russian industrial-scale production of drones has changed the character of the war in Ukraine last year. From 2024 to 2025, drone attacks rose 5x, from 11,000 to 55,000.
www.kyiv-dialogue.org/en/news/news...
www.kyiv-dialogue.org/en/news/news...
January 21, 2026 at 10:36 AM
Russian industrial-scale production of drones has changed the character of the war in Ukraine last year. From 2024 to 2025, drone attacks rose 5x, from 11,000 to 55,000.
www.kyiv-dialogue.org/en/news/news...
www.kyiv-dialogue.org/en/news/news...
Foreign policy think tank in 2026...
January 20, 2026 at 11:49 AM
Foreign policy think tank in 2026...
If you say that Putin should get Crimea or Donbas, then you can't say that Trump shouldn't get Greenland. It's the same redrawing of borders by great powers at the expense of smaller neighbours. Normalizing the annexation of Crimea has paved the way for Trump's Greenland demands.
January 20, 2026 at 7:28 AM
If you say that Putin should get Crimea or Donbas, then you can't say that Trump shouldn't get Greenland. It's the same redrawing of borders by great powers at the expense of smaller neighbours. Normalizing the annexation of Crimea has paved the way for Trump's Greenland demands.
Russia's federal deficit in 2025 did not exceed 2.6% of GDP, according to preliminary data from Russia's finance ministry. There was very, very little spending in December. It will be interesting to see the consolidated budget (incl. regions/social security).
minfin.gov.ru/ru/press-cen...
minfin.gov.ru/ru/press-cen...
January 19, 2026 at 1:25 PM
Russia's federal deficit in 2025 did not exceed 2.6% of GDP, according to preliminary data from Russia's finance ministry. There was very, very little spending in December. It will be interesting to see the consolidated budget (incl. regions/social security).
minfin.gov.ru/ru/press-cen...
minfin.gov.ru/ru/press-cen...
Yes, 30% of Republicans would approve illegally attacking a peaceful NATO ally to annex territory.
Source: www.cbsnews.com/news/ice-tru...
Source: www.cbsnews.com/news/ice-tru...
January 18, 2026 at 5:28 PM
Yes, 30% of Republicans would approve illegally attacking a peaceful NATO ally to annex territory.
Source: www.cbsnews.com/news/ice-tru...
Source: www.cbsnews.com/news/ice-tru...
Reposted by Janis Kluge
Feels like something cracked today in the transatlantic alliance. Europeans have been swallowing their pride, bitting their tongues, and bending the knee. That strategy may have bought them time but it has now clearly failed. It also had a major cost - it has made the WH think Europe will cave. 1/
January 18, 2026 at 3:04 AM
Feels like something cracked today in the transatlantic alliance. Europeans have been swallowing their pride, bitting their tongues, and bending the knee. That strategy may have bought them time but it has now clearly failed. It also had a major cost - it has made the WH think Europe will cave. 1/
Reposted by Janis Kluge
Der Krieg gegen die 🇺🇦 ist eine Frage des Durchhaltens. @jakluge.de spricht deshalb mit @gresselgustav.bsky.social, @efdavies.bsky.social & @jcbehrends.bsky.social über die Lage der russ. Wirtschaft, die Aussichten für 2026 – und über das Wesen des Putin-Regimes. Mod: @richvolkmann.bsky.social
January 18, 2026 at 8:09 AM
Der Krieg gegen die 🇺🇦 ist eine Frage des Durchhaltens. @jakluge.de spricht deshalb mit @gresselgustav.bsky.social, @efdavies.bsky.social & @jcbehrends.bsky.social über die Lage der russ. Wirtschaft, die Aussichten für 2026 – und über das Wesen des Putin-Regimes. Mod: @richvolkmann.bsky.social
China has shown us how to win a trade war against Trump. Deals are worth nothing. Only leverage counts. EU has to push back.
January 17, 2026 at 5:16 PM
China has shown us how to win a trade war against Trump. Deals are worth nothing. Only leverage counts. EU has to push back.
Russia's finance minister, Siluanov, reported that the budget deficit was 2.6% of GDP last year. This implies an unusually frugal December, which breaks with previous spending patterns.
www.interfax.ru/business/106...
www.interfax.ru/business/106...
January 17, 2026 at 12:16 PM
Russia's finance minister, Siluanov, reported that the budget deficit was 2.6% of GDP last year. This implies an unusually frugal December, which breaks with previous spending patterns.
www.interfax.ru/business/106...
www.interfax.ru/business/106...
Regional bonus size was not correct in my previous post (thanks to @leoskyview.bsky.social for pointing it out).
Here is the development over the past 2 years.
Late 2025 was messy because some regions likely moved payments to 2026 (budget issues), others may have fulfilled their quota early.
Here is the development over the past 2 years.
Late 2025 was messy because some regions likely moved payments to 2026 (budget issues), others may have fulfilled their quota early.
January 17, 2026 at 8:34 AM
Regional bonus size was not correct in my previous post (thanks to @leoskyview.bsky.social for pointing it out).
Here is the development over the past 2 years.
Late 2025 was messy because some regions likely moved payments to 2026 (budget issues), others may have fulfilled their quota early.
Here is the development over the past 2 years.
Late 2025 was messy because some regions likely moved payments to 2026 (budget issues), others may have fulfilled their quota early.
2024
Regional bonuses: ~200 billion rubles.
Federal bonuses: ~110 billion rubles.
2025
Regional bonuses: ~600 billion rubles.
Federal bonuses: ~160 billion rubles.
Regional bonus increased (avg contract):
2024: 500k -> 1.5m.
2025: 1.5m -> 2m.
Federal bonus increased:
August 2024: 195k -> 400k.
Regional bonuses: ~200 billion rubles.
Federal bonuses: ~110 billion rubles.
2025
Regional bonuses: ~600 billion rubles.
Federal bonuses: ~160 billion rubles.
Regional bonus increased (avg contract):
2024: 500k -> 1.5m.
2025: 1.5m -> 2m.
Federal bonus increased:
August 2024: 195k -> 400k.
Can you post up some like-with-like comparisons for 2025 Vs 2025 total recruitment and total bonus costs? Would be interesting.
It seems like Medvedev's claims dropped from 450k in '24 to 422k in '25. Still too high.
It seems like Medvedev's claims dropped from 450k in '24 to 422k in '25. Still too high.
January 16, 2026 at 8:07 PM
2024
Regional bonuses: ~200 billion rubles.
Federal bonuses: ~110 billion rubles.
2025
Regional bonuses: ~600 billion rubles.
Federal bonuses: ~160 billion rubles.
Regional bonus increased (avg contract):
2024: 500k -> 1.5m.
2025: 1.5m -> 2m.
Federal bonus increased:
August 2024: 195k -> 400k.
Regional bonuses: ~200 billion rubles.
Federal bonuses: ~110 billion rubles.
2025
Regional bonuses: ~600 billion rubles.
Federal bonuses: ~160 billion rubles.
Regional bonus increased (avg contract):
2024: 500k -> 1.5m.
2025: 1.5m -> 2m.
Federal bonus increased:
August 2024: 195k -> 400k.
In 2025, sign-on bonuses alone were around 0.3-0.4% of Russian GDP (700-800 billion rubles), 80% of which came from regional budgets (~600 billion rubles). Of course, the bonuses are not the only cost of recruitment. Total payouts for casualties are likely to be much higher.
Dmitri Medvedev announced today that 422,704 Russians signed a contract with the military in 2025 (contract soldiers). My estimate based on regional budgets is 407,000. Several regions stopped paying out bonuses in December (budget issues).
January 16, 2026 at 1:32 PM
In 2025, sign-on bonuses alone were around 0.3-0.4% of Russian GDP (700-800 billion rubles), 80% of which came from regional budgets (~600 billion rubles). Of course, the bonuses are not the only cost of recruitment. Total payouts for casualties are likely to be much higher.