Source: Source: minfin.gov.ru/ru/statistic...

Oil and gas revenues were equal to 4.3% of Russian monthly GDP (last October: 7.23%).

That is too little. We can now increase Russia's plans stepwise, so that September spending is not an unrealistic 72%, but maybe 69% or 68% of the total. On the right side of the table you can read what the total spending would be (and how much higher) if September was not 72% but 71%, 70% etc...

I'm predicting how much Russia will spend in 2025 based on previous years spending patterns. Normally, only 66% of the budget are spent after September, leaving over 30% for Q4. IF spending will be as Russia plans in 2025, it WOULD have spent 72% already, leaving only 28% for Q4.

Borrowing is more difficult for Russia. Interest on new debt is around 15% at the moment. Russia pays about 2x as much as Germany for debt service, and will probably pay more than France next year (% of GDP). At 15% interest, even 30% debt/GDP is already a huge burden.

PS: The spending for Oct 31st is a forecast based on an average October. We will know the actual total in about 10 days.

If Russia spends 6% more than planned, as the current pace indicates, this would be around 2.5 trillion rubles or a bit over 1% of GDP. Of course, spending could be moved to next year, or revenue could be higher than expected. But if that doesn't happen: 3.5% of GDP deficit.

In the table, you can see the distribution of September/October spending as a share of total spending for 2011-2024. Most likely, 2025 will be somewhere in this distribution. This means that total spending will be higher - you can read the forecast on the right side of the table.

That's smart!

Although, I only see one list... Maybe I'm missing something.

Yup, but is it private?

I don't have a good reason for it, but I don't really want my feed settings published... Even if the reality is that most won't care about it.

Not private... I don't understand why Bluesky forces me to publish my feed settings like that...

PS: The chart only shows quarterly oil taxes (NDD).

Good point!

budget.jakluge.de?view=2&id=11...

Of all federal spending, yes. And military spending is close to 50% of revenue.

Source: Russian Finance Ministry / budget reports