Matthew Palmer
@so3brocktree.bsky.social
🇬🇧 Former soldier. Accidental journalist. Fellow at the Council on Geostrategy and RNSSC.
Thoughts & feelings on defence and other things. Not always serious. Views my own.
Longer thoughts & feelings on substack:
https://crackingdefence.substack.com/
Thoughts & feelings on defence and other things. Not always serious. Views my own.
Longer thoughts & feelings on substack:
https://crackingdefence.substack.com/
Pinned
We are pleased to announce that @so3brocktree.bsky.social is joining us as the Sir John Moore Adjunct Fellow in Military Affairs!
🔗 Read the full announcement: bit.ly/4mtunwr
🚨 Dive straight into Matthew’s analysis on sub-threshold threats: bit.ly/3UgIE3t
🔗 Read the full announcement: bit.ly/4mtunwr
🚨 Dive straight into Matthew’s analysis on sub-threshold threats: bit.ly/3UgIE3t
Very chuffed to announce that I am now a Fellow of the @congeostrategy.bsky.social!
I'll be writing predominantly on grey-zone threats and joint operations for the Council, while continuing my work on Substack and for the RNSSC.
Please do get in contact if you are interested in any of the above!
I'll be writing predominantly on grey-zone threats and joint operations for the Council, while continuing my work on Substack and for the RNSSC.
Please do get in contact if you are interested in any of the above!
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
Competent experienced career FCDO diplomat. Good. Just the person for the job.
(NB quite apart from Epstein, Mandelson's clever-clever trade and tech deal with the US is falling apart. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...)
(NB quite apart from Epstein, Mandelson's clever-clever trade and tech deal with the US is falling apart. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...)
December 18, 2025 at 5:54 PM
Competent experienced career FCDO diplomat. Good. Just the person for the job.
(NB quite apart from Epstein, Mandelson's clever-clever trade and tech deal with the US is falling apart. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...)
(NB quite apart from Epstein, Mandelson's clever-clever trade and tech deal with the US is falling apart. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...)
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
Career diplomat to replace Peter crash-and-burn Mandelson in DC as UK Ambassador.
www.ft.com/content/f4b9...
www.ft.com/content/f4b9...
Christian Turner to be new UK ambassador to US
Diplomat due to be Britain’s UN envoy is handed key post in Washington after contest to replace Peter Mandelson
www.ft.com
December 18, 2025 at 5:56 PM
Career diplomat to replace Peter crash-and-burn Mandelson in DC as UK Ambassador.
www.ft.com/content/f4b9...
www.ft.com/content/f4b9...
I refer people to my previous post.
By this point a jury-rigged Toyota Hilux, a drone and some competent recce soldiers would be of more use.
By this point a jury-rigged Toyota Hilux, a drone and some competent recce soldiers would be of more use.
All trials of UK’s Ajax armoured vehicles paused after another soldier injured
Further blow to multibillion-pound project that has been hit by safety problems
www.ft.com
December 18, 2025 at 3:21 PM
I refer people to my previous post.
By this point a jury-rigged Toyota Hilux, a drone and some competent recce soldiers would be of more use.
By this point a jury-rigged Toyota Hilux, a drone and some competent recce soldiers would be of more use.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
I need the most Bluesky take you have- no, that's too Bluesky
December 17, 2025 at 1:58 PM
I need the most Bluesky take you have- no, that's too Bluesky
Completely unsurprising use of coercive influence operations. Will European governments do anything about it?
Belgian politicians and finance bosses targeted by Russian intelligence over seized assets
Belgian politicians and finance bosses targeted by Russian intelligence over seized assets
Exclusive: Key figures at frozen assets depository among targets of intimidation campaign, say European intelligence agencies
www.theguardian.com
December 17, 2025 at 11:05 PM
Completely unsurprising use of coercive influence operations. Will European governments do anything about it?
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
If you haven't yet read it, you should. Some powerful words by the new head of MI6.
I will also note that this speech - by the head of a secret organisation - is far better-written and more powerful than many of those I've seen given by professional politicians.
I will also note that this speech - by the head of a secret organisation - is far better-written and more powerful than many of those I've seen given by professional politicians.
Speech by Blaise Metreweli, Chief of SIS, 15 December 2025
Blaise Metreweli, Chief of the Secret Intelligence Service on how SIS is keeping the UK safe in a world where the rules of conflict are being rewritten.
www.gov.uk
December 17, 2025 at 7:44 PM
If you haven't yet read it, you should. Some powerful words by the new head of MI6.
I will also note that this speech - by the head of a secret organisation - is far better-written and more powerful than many of those I've seen given by professional politicians.
I will also note that this speech - by the head of a secret organisation - is far better-written and more powerful than many of those I've seen given by professional politicians.
If you haven't yet read it, you should. Some powerful words by the new head of MI6.
I will also note that this speech - by the head of a secret organisation - is far better-written and more powerful than many of those I've seen given by professional politicians.
I will also note that this speech - by the head of a secret organisation - is far better-written and more powerful than many of those I've seen given by professional politicians.
Speech by Blaise Metreweli, Chief of SIS, 15 December 2025
Blaise Metreweli, Chief of the Secret Intelligence Service on how SIS is keeping the UK safe in a world where the rules of conflict are being rewritten.
www.gov.uk
December 17, 2025 at 7:44 PM
If you haven't yet read it, you should. Some powerful words by the new head of MI6.
I will also note that this speech - by the head of a secret organisation - is far better-written and more powerful than many of those I've seen given by professional politicians.
I will also note that this speech - by the head of a secret organisation - is far better-written and more powerful than many of those I've seen given by professional politicians.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
Shock.
While No.10 quibbles, the threat grows and our ability to combat it remains diminished.
But defence is apparently a 'top priority' for government....
While No.10 quibbles, the threat grows and our ability to combat it remains diminished.
But defence is apparently a 'top priority' for government....
Defence spending plan delayed over Starmer concerns
New national armaments director insists the paper is in its ‘final stages’
www.ft.com
December 17, 2025 at 8:42 AM
Shock.
While No.10 quibbles, the threat grows and our ability to combat it remains diminished.
But defence is apparently a 'top priority' for government....
While No.10 quibbles, the threat grows and our ability to combat it remains diminished.
But defence is apparently a 'top priority' for government....
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
⚓ ‘In the battle of the bastions, the Royal Navy will play the leading role in containing 🇷🇺 High North capabilities,’ argue @willfreer.bsky.social and @so3brocktree.bsky.social in part 2 of the analysis of ‘Atlantic Bastion’
#Memorandum #BritainsWorld
#Memorandum #BritainsWorld
Exit ‘fourth battle of the Atlantic’, enter ‘Battle of the Bastions’: Part 1
The Memorandum | No. 47.2025
www.britainsworld.org.uk
December 17, 2025 at 3:15 PM
⚓ ‘In the battle of the bastions, the Royal Navy will play the leading role in containing 🇷🇺 High North capabilities,’ argue @willfreer.bsky.social and @so3brocktree.bsky.social in part 2 of the analysis of ‘Atlantic Bastion’
#Memorandum #BritainsWorld
#Memorandum #BritainsWorld
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
💰 ‘The @RoyalNavy could expand and modernise, but would also be expected to carry a far greater burden of European and global security,’ writes @so3brocktree.bsky.social, Bronze award winner in the First Sea Lord's Essay Competition 2025
#ISPC2025 #Broadside
#ISPC2025 #Broadside
What if the British government commits to increasing defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2030, or 4.0% by 2035?
Bronze award winner for the First Sea Lord’s Essay Competition 2025
www.thebroadside.org.uk
December 17, 2025 at 12:07 PM
💰 ‘The @RoyalNavy could expand and modernise, but would also be expected to carry a far greater burden of European and global security,’ writes @so3brocktree.bsky.social, Bronze award winner in the First Sea Lord's Essay Competition 2025
#ISPC2025 #Broadside
#ISPC2025 #Broadside
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
It's a neglected principle of government that if you say something is important, you should make sure you act on it.
Shock.
While No.10 quibbles, the threat grows and our ability to combat it remains diminished.
But defence is apparently a 'top priority' for government....
While No.10 quibbles, the threat grows and our ability to combat it remains diminished.
But defence is apparently a 'top priority' for government....
Defence spending plan delayed over Starmer concerns
New national armaments director insists the paper is in its ‘final stages’
www.ft.com
December 17, 2025 at 11:12 AM
It's a neglected principle of government that if you say something is important, you should make sure you act on it.
Shock.
While No.10 quibbles, the threat grows and our ability to combat it remains diminished.
But defence is apparently a 'top priority' for government....
While No.10 quibbles, the threat grows and our ability to combat it remains diminished.
But defence is apparently a 'top priority' for government....
Defence spending plan delayed over Starmer concerns
New national armaments director insists the paper is in its ‘final stages’
www.ft.com
December 17, 2025 at 8:42 AM
Shock.
While No.10 quibbles, the threat grows and our ability to combat it remains diminished.
But defence is apparently a 'top priority' for government....
While No.10 quibbles, the threat grows and our ability to combat it remains diminished.
But defence is apparently a 'top priority' for government....
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
Honestly, by this point a Toyota Hilux with some jury-rigged sensors, a drone, and maybe an anti-tank launcher would be more useful than this fuckup of a vehicle.
At least a Hilux can get across most bridges and doesn't weigh 40 tonnes, unlike Ajax.
At least a Hilux can get across most bridges and doesn't weigh 40 tonnes, unlike Ajax.
Britain’s troubled Ajax armoured-vehicle programme may be doomed
The alternatives look like a better bet
www.economist.com
December 16, 2025 at 7:12 PM
Honestly, by this point a Toyota Hilux with some jury-rigged sensors, a drone, and maybe an anti-tank launcher would be more useful than this fuckup of a vehicle.
At least a Hilux can get across most bridges and doesn't weigh 40 tonnes, unlike Ajax.
At least a Hilux can get across most bridges and doesn't weigh 40 tonnes, unlike Ajax.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
Outright pro-Russians are a very small cohort of the general obtruseness brigade in European Ukraine policy. The real issue is defence antivaxxers: people who insist that there is no real problem that defence spending is the answer to, eleven years into some real obvious evidence that there is
December 16, 2025 at 7:20 PM
Outright pro-Russians are a very small cohort of the general obtruseness brigade in European Ukraine policy. The real issue is defence antivaxxers: people who insist that there is no real problem that defence spending is the answer to, eleven years into some real obvious evidence that there is
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
Bring back Bren carriers
December 16, 2025 at 7:13 PM
Bring back Bren carriers
Honestly, by this point a Toyota Hilux with some jury-rigged sensors, a drone, and maybe an anti-tank launcher would be more useful than this fuckup of a vehicle.
At least a Hilux can get across most bridges and doesn't weigh 40 tonnes, unlike Ajax.
At least a Hilux can get across most bridges and doesn't weigh 40 tonnes, unlike Ajax.
Britain’s troubled Ajax armoured-vehicle programme may be doomed
The alternatives look like a better bet
www.economist.com
December 16, 2025 at 7:12 PM
Honestly, by this point a Toyota Hilux with some jury-rigged sensors, a drone, and maybe an anti-tank launcher would be more useful than this fuckup of a vehicle.
At least a Hilux can get across most bridges and doesn't weigh 40 tonnes, unlike Ajax.
At least a Hilux can get across most bridges and doesn't weigh 40 tonnes, unlike Ajax.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
New free to read link. as.ft.com/r/cc471e39-d...
December 16, 2025 at 2:55 PM
New free to read link. as.ft.com/r/cc471e39-d...
NOICE
EXCL: An agreement to rejoin Erasmus – the EU’s student exchange programme – set to be announced on Wednesday as part of UK government’s drive towards closer relations with Brussels.
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/d...
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/d...
UK to rejoin EU’s Erasmus student exchange programme
Exclusive: British students will be able to participate in EU-wide scheme from January 2027, sources say
www.theguardian.com
December 16, 2025 at 6:18 PM
NOICE
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
EXCL: An agreement to rejoin Erasmus – the EU’s student exchange programme – set to be announced on Wednesday as part of UK government’s drive towards closer relations with Brussels.
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/d...
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/d...
UK to rejoin EU’s Erasmus student exchange programme
Exclusive: British students will be able to participate in EU-wide scheme from January 2027, sources say
www.theguardian.com
December 16, 2025 at 6:17 PM
EXCL: An agreement to rejoin Erasmus – the EU’s student exchange programme – set to be announced on Wednesday as part of UK government’s drive towards closer relations with Brussels.
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/d...
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/d...
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
NEW: Housing Minister Matthew Pennycook has just announced the BIGGEST EVER reforms to national policy to deliver more homes! Here are the five biggest: 🧵
December 16, 2025 at 2:56 PM
NEW: Housing Minister Matthew Pennycook has just announced the BIGGEST EVER reforms to national policy to deliver more homes! Here are the five biggest: 🧵
Surprising openness by officials on Iran's failures.
Also suggests that they are likely to double down on missile development and production.
Also suggests that they are likely to double down on missile development and production.
Iran puts missiles and drones on display in rare exhibition
Tehran opens arsenal to public in bid to reassure them country is ready for any future hostilities with US and Israel
www.ft.com
December 16, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Surprising openness by officials on Iran's failures.
Also suggests that they are likely to double down on missile development and production.
Also suggests that they are likely to double down on missile development and production.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
As did this one. "values, integrity and respect" - our future depends on it. We have to remember who we are in this moment of ideological turbulence.
December 16, 2025 at 8:22 AM
As did this one. "values, integrity and respect" - our future depends on it. We have to remember who we are in this moment of ideological turbulence.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
My contribution to The World Today winter issue:
Trying to make sense of the messy Arctic security dynamics - and what role the UK could play, given that the best case scenario is at the moment that the US reduces its presence and the worst case that the US makes an Arctic deal with Russia.
Trying to make sense of the messy Arctic security dynamics - and what role the UK could play, given that the best case scenario is at the moment that the US reduces its presence and the worst case that the US makes an Arctic deal with Russia.
December 15, 2025 at 1:44 PM
My contribution to The World Today winter issue:
Trying to make sense of the messy Arctic security dynamics - and what role the UK could play, given that the best case scenario is at the moment that the US reduces its presence and the worst case that the US makes an Arctic deal with Russia.
Trying to make sense of the messy Arctic security dynamics - and what role the UK could play, given that the best case scenario is at the moment that the US reduces its presence and the worst case that the US makes an Arctic deal with Russia.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
Ahmed el Ahmed, a 43 yr-old Muslim father of two, risked his life to tackle the terrorist who killed 12 at a Sydney Hanukkah celebration, disarming him in that incredible video.
He is in hospital with two gunshot wounds to the arm & hand.
Thank you, dear Ahmed. You are a hero!
He is in hospital with two gunshot wounds to the arm & hand.
Thank you, dear Ahmed. You are a hero!
Hero bystander who tackled gunman in incredible footage identified
In the aftermath of the devastation at Bondi, a deluge of footage poured onto social media. One video of an act of incredible bravery stood out.
www.smh.com.au
December 14, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Ahmed el Ahmed, a 43 yr-old Muslim father of two, risked his life to tackle the terrorist who killed 12 at a Sydney Hanukkah celebration, disarming him in that incredible video.
He is in hospital with two gunshot wounds to the arm & hand.
Thank you, dear Ahmed. You are a hero!
He is in hospital with two gunshot wounds to the arm & hand.
Thank you, dear Ahmed. You are a hero!
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
What the fuck is this.
I'm all for new interpretations of classic source material, but this? THIS?
I'm all for new interpretations of classic source material, but this? THIS?
December 13, 2025 at 10:17 AM
What the fuck is this.
I'm all for new interpretations of classic source material, but this? THIS?
I'm all for new interpretations of classic source material, but this? THIS?