Matthew Palmer
@so3brocktree.bsky.social
🇬🇧 Former soldier. Accidental journalist. Fellow at the Council on Geostrategy.
Thoughts & feelings on defence and other things. Not always serious. Views my own.
Longer thoughts & feelings on substack:
https://crackingdefence.substack.com/
Thoughts & feelings on defence and other things. Not always serious. Views my own.
Longer thoughts & feelings on substack:
https://crackingdefence.substack.com/
Pinned
We are pleased to announce that @so3brocktree.bsky.social is joining us as the Sir John Moore Adjunct Fellow in Military Affairs!
🔗 Read the full announcement: bit.ly/4mtunwr
🚨 Dive straight into Matthew’s analysis on sub-threshold threats: bit.ly/3UgIE3t
🔗 Read the full announcement: bit.ly/4mtunwr
🚨 Dive straight into Matthew’s analysis on sub-threshold threats: bit.ly/3UgIE3t
Very chuffed to announce that I am now a Fellow of the @congeostrategy.bsky.social!
I'll be writing predominantly on grey-zone threats and joint operations for the Council, while continuing my work on Substack and for the RNSSC.
Please do get in contact if you are interested in any of the above!
I'll be writing predominantly on grey-zone threats and joint operations for the Council, while continuing my work on Substack and for the RNSSC.
Please do get in contact if you are interested in any of the above!
Fuck's sake... 🫠
February 10, 2026 at 11:15 AM
Fuck's sake... 🫠
As ever, I find that Macron says the right things, but (as the article notes) French actions often don't match the rhetoric.
Emmanuel Macron declares a European state of emergency
He urges the EU to move fast or be swept aside
www.economist.com
February 10, 2026 at 9:48 AM
As ever, I find that Macron says the right things, but (as the article notes) French actions often don't match the rhetoric.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
US set to relinquish several senior NATO command posts
US set to relinquish several senior NATO command posts
The United States will hand over two top regional commands in NATO to European countries, diplomats said Monday, as President Donald Trump presses allies to take greater responsibility for their defence. Washington will transfer leadership of NATO’s Naples command, which focuses on the alliance’s south, to Italy and leadership of its Norfolk command in Virginia, […]
dlvr.it
February 9, 2026 at 10:28 PM
US set to relinquish several senior NATO command posts
February 9, 2026 at 6:42 PM
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
Can’t promise that everyone will find absolutely everything I have to say about the UK positive and kind, but I hope it is fair. And here is the first sentence of the book.
"Feeling at home in more than one place is not very fashionable these days."
"Feeling at home in more than one place is not very fashionable these days."
If it's full of positive and kind comments on this wretched country I think I will break down in tears
February 9, 2026 at 2:47 PM
Can’t promise that everyone will find absolutely everything I have to say about the UK positive and kind, but I hope it is fair. And here is the first sentence of the book.
"Feeling at home in more than one place is not very fashionable these days."
"Feeling at home in more than one place is not very fashionable these days."
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty expired last week. It marks the first time since the 1970s that there will be no legally binding limits on US and Russian strategic nuclear forces.
The US and Russia’s nuclear weapons treaty is set to expire. Here’s what’s at stake
Letting New START expire would signal that the world’s largest nuclear powers are abandoning restraint.
www.chathamhouse.org
February 9, 2026 at 2:00 PM
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty expired last week. It marks the first time since the 1970s that there will be no legally binding limits on US and Russian strategic nuclear forces.
'Captain, its only.....'
February 9, 2026 at 1:42 PM
'Captain, its only.....'
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
‘I truly believe that the current generation of senior politicians and officials, all brought up in a world where America was always available as the friendly big brother and war was something that happened ‘over there’, cannot psychologically or culturally compute the world in which we now exist.’
February 5, 2026 at 2:46 PM
‘I truly believe that the current generation of senior politicians and officials, all brought up in a world where America was always available as the friendly big brother and war was something that happened ‘over there’, cannot psychologically or culturally compute the world in which we now exist.’
I'm in the 'Ukraine Support and NAFO Community'
Fair enough, happy with that.
Fair enough, happy with that.
I made a map of 3.4 million Bluesky users - see if you can find yourself!
bluesky-map.theo.io
I've seen some similar projects, but IMO this seems to better capture some of the fine-grained detail
bluesky-map.theo.io
I've seen some similar projects, but IMO this seems to better capture some of the fine-grained detail
Bluesky Map
Interactive map of 3.4 million Bluesky users, visualised by their follower pattern.
bluesky-map.theo.io
February 9, 2026 at 8:41 AM
I'm in the 'Ukraine Support and NAFO Community'
Fair enough, happy with that.
Fair enough, happy with that.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
Everyone knows today's young do not get a fair shot
Top five words Britons use to describe the next generation's future 👇
Worried (55%)
Uncertain (52%)
Frustrated (28%)
Conflicted (18%)
Angry (17%)
Top five words Britons use to describe the next generation's future 👇
Worried (55%)
Uncertain (52%)
Frustrated (28%)
Conflicted (18%)
Angry (17%)
February 9, 2026 at 8:30 AM
Everyone knows today's young do not get a fair shot
Top five words Britons use to describe the next generation's future 👇
Worried (55%)
Uncertain (52%)
Frustrated (28%)
Conflicted (18%)
Angry (17%)
Top five words Britons use to describe the next generation's future 👇
Worried (55%)
Uncertain (52%)
Frustrated (28%)
Conflicted (18%)
Angry (17%)
One of those many areas of daily life that is dependent on the US.
European alternatives to Visa and Mastercard ‘urgently’ needed, says banking chief
US payment processing companies account for about two-thirds of card transactions in Eurozone
www.ft.com
February 9, 2026 at 7:42 AM
One of those many areas of daily life that is dependent on the US.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
The worst is the ad for a new google phone where it says: If you need your phone to find an answer for your friend, wouldn’t it be better if your phone just told you? HOW ABOUT PISS OFF AND I’LL TALK TO THE HUMAN AND THE INANIMATE CAN JUST MIND ITS OWN DAMN BUSINESS.
There's a ChatGPT ad about a family farm where the owner says her family has been doing this for a hundred years and she doesn't want to be the one to screw it up and that's why she's getting advice from ChatGPT and, my God, can you people hear yourselves?
February 8, 2026 at 10:33 PM
The worst is the ad for a new google phone where it says: If you need your phone to find an answer for your friend, wouldn’t it be better if your phone just told you? HOW ABOUT PISS OFF AND I’LL TALK TO THE HUMAN AND THE INANIMATE CAN JUST MIND ITS OWN DAMN BUSINESS.
Have been watching the ice hockey all day and couldn't help idly thinking the same thing... 😅
February 8, 2026 at 10:46 PM
Have been watching the ice hockey all day and couldn't help idly thinking the same thing... 😅
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
Can’t see any winter Olympian now without wondering if they are in a heated rivalry entangle
February 8, 2026 at 10:40 PM
Can’t see any winter Olympian now without wondering if they are in a heated rivalry entangle
Oh dear how sad never mind
🔺 BREAKING: The prime minister’s aide has stepped down from his role after days of pressure to quit
Morgan McSweeney resigns as Keir Starmer’s chief of staff
www.thetimes.com
February 8, 2026 at 2:32 PM
Oh dear how sad never mind
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
‘Novice workers who rely heavily on AI to complete unfamiliar tasks may compromise their own skill acquisition… We find that AI use impairs conceptual understanding, code reading, and debugging abilities, without delivering significant efficiency gains on average.’
arxiv.org/pdf/2601.20245
arxiv.org/pdf/2601.20245
February 3, 2026 at 9:00 PM
‘Novice workers who rely heavily on AI to complete unfamiliar tasks may compromise their own skill acquisition… We find that AI use impairs conceptual understanding, code reading, and debugging abilities, without delivering significant efficiency gains on average.’
arxiv.org/pdf/2601.20245
arxiv.org/pdf/2601.20245
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
The world needs more people like her.
February 6, 2026 at 9:48 PM
The world needs more people like her.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
Another scream for action from me, in a world where the US is far from our best friend.
Maybe one day the UK government might listen.
Maybe one day the UK government might listen.
Vulnerable Britain
Time is running out
open.substack.com
February 5, 2026 at 1:27 PM
Another scream for action from me, in a world where the US is far from our best friend.
Maybe one day the UK government might listen.
Maybe one day the UK government might listen.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
SCMP: ‘In the days that followed Japanese leader Sanae Takaichi’s […] remarks over Taiwan in November, Beijing convened a rare meeting with Southeast Asian envoys to rally regional support for its campaign against Japan – but that effort has so far gained little traction.’
Exclusive | Inside China’s rare meeting to lobby Southeast Asia against Japan
Beijing summons Southeast Asian envoys and invokes Japan’s WWII history, but campaign to isolate Tokyo gains little traction.
www.scmp.com
February 6, 2026 at 8:29 AM
SCMP: ‘In the days that followed Japanese leader Sanae Takaichi’s […] remarks over Taiwan in November, Beijing convened a rare meeting with Southeast Asian envoys to rally regional support for its campaign against Japan – but that effort has so far gained little traction.’
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
FT exclusive:
“The US state department is set to fund Maga-aligned think-tanks and charities across Europe to disseminate Washington’s policy positions and challenge perceived threats to free speech.”
via @annasophiegross.bsky.social and colleagues
“The US state department is set to fund Maga-aligned think-tanks and charities across Europe to disseminate Washington’s policy positions and challenge perceived threats to free speech.”
via @annasophiegross.bsky.social and colleagues
February 5, 2026 at 11:39 PM
FT exclusive:
“The US state department is set to fund Maga-aligned think-tanks and charities across Europe to disseminate Washington’s policy positions and challenge perceived threats to free speech.”
via @annasophiegross.bsky.social and colleagues
“The US state department is set to fund Maga-aligned think-tanks and charities across Europe to disseminate Washington’s policy positions and challenge perceived threats to free speech.”
via @annasophiegross.bsky.social and colleagues
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
Yup. My experience is the strategy tends to be 'make the minister of the day happy by focusing on his/her personal interests, and try not to start a war in the process'
February 5, 2026 at 10:22 PM
Yup. My experience is the strategy tends to be 'make the minister of the day happy by focusing on his/her personal interests, and try not to start a war in the process'
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
Last time I studied strategy in any detail (in the case of the First World War) strategy or policy was mostly a matter of which cabinet minister was winning whatever the argument of the day was, and who they were pissing off in the process.
February 5, 2026 at 10:18 PM
Last time I studied strategy in any detail (in the case of the First World War) strategy or policy was mostly a matter of which cabinet minister was winning whatever the argument of the day was, and who they were pissing off in the process.