Andrew Watt
andrewwatteu.bsky.social
Andrew Watt
@andrewwatteu.bsky.social

General Director, European Trade Union Institute
@etui.bsky.social

Formerly www.imk-boeckler.de

EU economic governance, comparative political economy, European integration, socio-ecological transition, wage bargaining
Deutschland-Versteher
Vietnam .. more

Economics 58%
Political science 32%

Update
If you missed Special Purpose Vehicles, securitisation, & lack of transparency about who ultimately carries the can 👆, I can help you: giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
SPVs are not inherently dangerous, and volumes are still small. But for tech giants to pay a premium to shift risk is 🚨!
Tech groups shift $120bn of AI data centre debt off balance sheets
Creative financing helps insulate Big Tech while binding Wall Street to a future boom or bust
giftarticle.ft.com

of bonds held by banks and insurance companies will decline. These are investment grade bonds, currently considered (& priced as) almost as safe as US treasuries. Until they aren't.
Sound familiar?
AI does have an upside potential that real estate lacks, but if it is not realised soon, 😱 beckons
2)2

giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Almost a third of US investment-grade corporate bond issuance, which is close to record levels, is to finance AI buildout.
If (when?) the AI bubble bursts or deflates, not only will real investment contract sharply. Bond defaults will increase. And the value
1)2
AI debt boom pushes US corporate bond sales close to record
Investment-grade borrowers have issued $1.7tn of bonds this year, closing in on 2020’s Covid debt rush
giftarticle.ft.com

Reposted by Andrew Watt

📣 New #JobAlert

💻 The ETUI is looking for a Database Administrator to play a central role in the Institute's #data-driven activities.

🌐 The successful candidate will be responsible for managing, securing, and optimising core data assets.

Apply here 🔗 etui.org/4Z5
@andrewwatteu.bsky.social

Reposted by Matthias Schnetzer

Interested in joining the great team @etui.bsky.social ?
We have 3 openings with application deadlines in January:
Database administrator
Managing editor of our Journal TRANSFER
Administrative assistant

Details: www.etui.org/about-etui/t...
www.etui.org

It is important that Europe creates an environment in which start-ups and existing companies can scale up new activities, there can be experimentation and hings that don't work are allowed to fail. But flexible firing rules are not an important part of that environment. 👇
The argument is that Europe underperforms in tech and biotech because it is “too expensive” to fire people.That may sound intuitively appealing but it is profoundly misleading.
Europe won’t innovate more by firing people faster
The argument is that Europe underperforms in tech and biotech because it is “too expensive” to fire people.That may sound intuitively appealing but it is profoundly misleading.
euobserver.com

If this is not done the risks of a repeat of the 1920s and 30s are high: Domestic economic and social crises and international trade and financial disintegration feed upon each other, leading via aggressive nationalism to military conflict.
5/5

Cooperative rebalancing along these lines wd reduce international tensions. Governments can deliver rising living standards at full employment with neither inflationary nor deflationary risks. Climate & social spending can take precedence over military. Wind is taken from the populists' sails.
4/5

... reduced production subsidies, easier market access and currency revaluation.
Europe must revamp its economic governance to invest massively in public goods, increasing its competitiveness, resilience and sustainability, incl. shouldering more of its defence burden.
3/4

The USA must end its disruptive trade war and return tariffs to previous levels. Fiscal policy needs to be appreciably tighter and the dollar allowed to depreciate.
China must increase consumption of its own and overseas production by some combination of higher wages, improved social welfare...
2/5

giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
President Macron might not be great at French politics, but he is right about the need for a cooperative rebalancing of the global economy. And for the EU to take measures if the US & China don't play ball.
The steps the 3 blocks need to take are rather clear.
1/5
We urgently need to rebalance EU-China relations
Resolving serious trade imbalances will require co-operation and co-ordinated action
giftarticle.ft.com

giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Europe's economy has long been hobbled less by red tape than by a mindset that sought competitiveness through wage moderation and internal devaluation, constraining domestic demand.
But China is outdoing it while the US refuses to be the consumer of last resort.
The key distinction Europe must make on trade policies
The region must be clear on the difference between inefficiency and a lack of global competitiveness
giftarticle.ft.com

Warst du nicht auch für 2025 hoffnungsvoll? Was bringt der Aufschwung nun 2026?

It remains to be seen how durable the Trump administration will prove. But as long as MAGA remains in power, Europe must very rapidly overcome its internal frictions and dysfunctions if it is not to be picked off as dead meat.
2/2

Recommended:
This analysis of the US National Security Strategy by Laszlo Andor
substack.com/@laszloandor...

It closes with "Trump is neither a hawk nor a dove but a vulture."

1/2
László Andor (@laszloandoreu)
US NSS adapts to multipolarity 🔸The publication of the new National Security Strategy of the US outlines a new course, driven by the understanding that the world is moving towards multipolarity. It c...
substack.com

The problem is indeed much bigger for the UK bc of the greater relative importance of the EU market.
But the EU suffers if, due to Brexit, it sources goods from overseas at higher cost or - the main concern now - from places that can prove unreliable.
Also, makes it harder for EU to export to UK.

Source:
Via John Auther's newsletter, originally from Absolute Strategy Research.
2/2

Since the #Brexit referendum real imports by the EU from the UK have declined by more than 40% (while increasing slightly overall). A disaster for British exporters.
But the trade distortion is also not good for the EU. Especially when the geopolitical/economic situation is so....complicated.
1)2

Just how much do we have to see before Europeans stop saying that the US has become an unreliable ally?
It is officially pursuing key interests that are diametrically opposed to European interests & values.
For at least as long as the Trump administration wields power the US is not an EU ally.
US national security strategy.
Something sure is unrecognisable here, but it’s not Europe.

www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
US national security strategy.
Something sure is unrecognisable here, but it’s not Europe.

www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...

Reposted by Steve Peers

Update
The important ramifications of the European Court of Justice Ruling on the Adequate Minimum Wage Directive are analysed by two colleagues @etui.bsky.social in this double-barreled blog:
Part I: ohrh.law.ox.ac.uk/the-cjeu-rul...

Part II: ohrh.law.ox.ac.uk/the-cjeu-rul...
The CJEU ruling on the Adequate Minimum Wages Directive: opening a door for progressive social experimentation? (Part I) | OHRH
ohrh.law.ox.ac.uk

Reposted by Francesco Saraceno

substack.com/@paulkrugman...
In difficult, worrying, often depressing times, @pkrugman.bsky.social (and Robin Wells) is an inspiration. To all who (still) believe in the value of respect for facts, analytical rigour, open debate, public spiritedness, hard work (and a sense of humour).

Indeed without such cooperation, competition btwn jurisdictions for mobile taxpayers will drive top income & wealth-tax rates -> zero, while immobile labour will be forced to shoulder the increasing public costs associated w/ ageing, climate change, security. The far right will reap the harvest
2/2

on.ft.com/4pJGoQ4
We will not be able to introduce meaningful taxation of large fortunes, even if it is in the interest of the vast majority of voters, unless there is international cooperation. The risk of the tax base walking away is otherwise too great, and voters know this.
1/2
Swiss voters reject 50% inheritance tax for super-rich
Overwhelming majority opposed wealth tax in contentious referendum
on.ft.com

It could be argued that car firms should receive subsidies or loans to facilitate such investment (check dividends first), but financing it out of a continued stream of profits from fossil-fuel cars is perverse, turning the policy goal on its head.

on.ft.com/3KhkEMo
2)2
Germany’s Merz to demand EU relax petrol engine ban
Coalition led by conservative chancellor agrees push to allow hybrid cars to aid struggling automotive industry
on.ft.com

Quite the argumentation!
Allow us to make profits with petrol and diesel engines beyond 2035 (nine years hence!) because we need funds so that we can invest in battery-vehicle technology. Which we will do. Promise!
It is the precisely the ban that creates the incentive to invest in BEVs.
1/2

Reposted by Andrew Watt

Our annual occupational safety and health (OSH) conference is back, and this year's theme couldn't be more topical:

OSH in the age of artificial intelligence 💻 📱 🤖

Update
Recommended commentary on the importance of the European Court of Justice ruling on the Minimum Wage Directive by Torsten Müller @etui.bsky.social and @thorsten-schulten.bsky.social

www.socialeurope.eu/after-landma...
After Landmark EU Court Judgement: The EU Minimum Wages Directive Is Alive and Kicking
The landmark ruling validates the directive's approach to adequate wages and collective bargaining, dealing only minor setbacks to its implementation across Europe.
www.socialeurope.eu