Carl Henrik Knutsen
chknutsen.bsky.social
Carl Henrik Knutsen
@chknutsen.bsky.social

Political science professor, University of Oslo; Research group leader, CIR group; Researcher, PRIO; co-PI, V-Dem

Political science 57%
Sociology 20%
New publication!
Collecting data is key for social science. @adridelrio.bsky.social, Woseeok Kim, @chknutsen.bsky.social, @anjaneundorf.bsky.social, Agustina S. Paglayan & @eugenian.bsky.social suggest how to enhance transparency and replicability based on education datasets
tinyurl.com/yskszsdt
“.. for most Trump investors, the year has been brutal. But .. for the President and his family, the money-making shows no sign of slowing.”

@newyorker.com
www.newyorker.com/news/a-repor...
New explainer from me, on understanding ICE as a paramilitary force, in more than one sense of the term 👇
theconversation.com/ice-not-only...
ICE not only looks and acts like a paramilitary force – it is one, and that makes it harder to curb
ICE, created in response to 9/11, meets most definitions of paramilitary forces. Critics worry it’s gone beyond its writ of immigration enforcement.
theconversation.com
Trump's relentless bullying of Ukraine presented as a "peace process" is making us sound like broken records. Like, how many times do we have to say that asking Ukraine to withdraw from its most fortified region in exchange for another useless Budapest memorandum offer is a dumb proposition?
🥉“Conceptual and Measurement Issues in Assessing Democratic Backsliding”.
Working Paper 140 from 2023 is the third most viewed (4,080 times). v-dem.net/media/public...

@chknutsen.bsky.social @kailmarkvart.bsky.social @silindberg.bsky.social ‪@medzihorsky.bsky.social
@danpemstein.com
4(6)
v-dem.net
📢 New article
👥 Carl Henrik Knutsen (ISV), Sirianne Dahlum (ISV), Magnus Bergli Rasmussen & Tore Wig (ISV)
👉 Who Rules? Support Coalitions and Regime Survival
📗 Open Access in Comparative Political Studies
🔗 doi.org/10.1177/0010...
Who Rules? Support Coalitions and Regime Survival, 1789–2020 - Carl Henrik Knutsen, Sirianne Dahlum, Magnus Bergli Rasmussen, Tore Wig, 2025
All political regimes rely on coalitions of supporters to govern and remain in power. We discuss, specify, and test arguments pertaining to how the numerical si...
doi.org
NEW PAPER ALERT! My paper, with @bjornhoyland.bsky.social , on how “policy loss” shapes support for the EU has just been published in @cpsjournal.bsky.social. Check it out!
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We are hiring a Professor!
The Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University, the world’s leading research environments in the field, is now recruiting a Professor. We welcome applications from internationally recognized scholars. uu.varbi.com/en/what:job/...
Professor of Peace and Conflict Research
Uppsala University announces a vacancy for a permanent position as  Professor of Peace and Conflict Research   At the Department of Peace and Conflict Research  The Department is one of the
uu.varbi.com
Spoke to folks in Kharkiv and Kyiv - people are freezing to death while being bombed daily for hours. It’s a humanitarian crisis. Tweets of “how incredibly strong Ukrainians are” and “prayers” aren’t enough. They need help. Now.
Even in the AI era, learning to quickly "read" an academic article is an essential skill.

When I started grad school, I thought I had to read every word, in order, for every article I "read".

I don’t do that anymore.

Here’s how I "read" most academic articles:
So America is on edge, angry and reaching a boiling post--and this is President Trump's latest tweet.

Serious Nero fiddling while Rome is burning vibes...
Who cares and has ever cared about the location of a book publisher? How much time have researchers wasted on figuring out this information?
So important. What they say is not the story. That is never the story. What happened is the story. Write what happened.
Media: do not lead with the false government framing of what happened
Imagine how much they’d be lying about what happened without all the videos showing it from multiple angles.
I still remember vividly reading this NYT headline in October 2024, sitting in a coffee shop in Boston, a fortnight before the presidential election

#Minneapolis
Ultimately you're not supposed to believe it. It not mattering is the point. The bolder the lie, the greater the impunity. The ultimate victory for evil is not convincing you, it's the truth being irrelevant.
We’re supposed to believe this is a domestic terrorist attacking ICE with a gun
We updated the dashboard so it now runs on Internet Explorer as well. If you are interested in seeing where Cuban members of government are born (or most other countries for that sake) now is your chance:

ptp.isv.sv.uio.no/ptp/
📊 New paper out in Democratization!
How do autocrats actually stay in power?

👉 Open access: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Co-authored with Wooseok Kim, @eugenian.bsky.social , Ksenia Northmore-Ball, and @ktertytchnaya.bsky.social.
Strategies of political control and regime survival in autocracies
How do autocrats establish political control? Understanding the strategies autocrats use to generate mass compliance and elite loyalty remains a central question in comparative politics. Despite su...
www.tandfonline.com

Gratulerer så mye, Kristian!
All countries on the Board of Peace are ruled by men and their median age is 66.
The New Trumpian Anarchy, where you bully allies abroad while you send your militia to kidnap 5-year-olds at home.

@dandrezner.bsky.social @foreignaffairs.com

www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Everyone in America should have to see these cases and think about what they mean for the kind of society we are becoming. They killed a mom in her minivan. And now they have grabbed this poor sweet kid, used him as bait to grab his dad, and sent him to a detention center in Texas.
How do different forms of state capacity protect democracy? D Andersen, @chknutsen.bsky.social & @skaaning.bsky.social argue coercive & administrative capacity affect stability in distinct ways depending on threat: buff.ly/6lpO8S3

@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
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buff.ly
US law requires 2/3 Senate approval for international treaties
Trump’s Board of Peace has now officially been recognized as an international organization, according to the White House.
I can't decide whether Trump's Bored of Peace is:

a) A joke.

b) A global coalition of Bond villains and an existential threat to peace and democracy everywhere.

c) A global grift operation of hitherto unseen scale.

d) All of the above.
I keep returning to one passage from Trump’s Davos speech. “You need ownership to defend something,” he said. “You can’t defend it on a lease. Who the hell wants to defend a licence agreement, or a lease?”
Taken seriously, this logic is devastating. 1/4
Happening right in front of us. Talking about canceling elections.
Trump: "Sometimes you need a dictator."
Do fiscal deficits threaten finance ministers’ survival equally across regimes? Jonas Willibald Schmid & Lasse Aaskoven argue deficits raise removal risks in democracies but not autocracies. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/ZPhKNKm

@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com #polsky
Doing Putin's bidding by pretending to be anti-Russian is peak Trump.