Andrew Watt
@andrewwatteu.bsky.social
General Director, European Trade Union Institute
@etui.bsky.social
Formerly www.imk-boeckler.de
EU economic governance, comparative political economy, European integration, socio-ecological transition, wage bargaining
Deutschland-Versteher
Vietnam
@etui.bsky.social
Formerly www.imk-boeckler.de
EU economic governance, comparative political economy, European integration, socio-ecological transition, wage bargaining
Deutschland-Versteher
Vietnam
Faced with Trumps' tariff chaos, the EU needs to reach a understanding with China, to reduce disruption. But it cannot be based on China massively diverting sales from US to EU while curtailing exports of critical materials for European production and clean tech on.ft.com/42FMvvI
October 13, 2025 at 7:04 AM
Faced with Trumps' tariff chaos, the EU needs to reach a understanding with China, to reduce disruption. But it cannot be based on China massively diverting sales from US to EU while curtailing exports of critical materials for European production and clean tech on.ft.com/42FMvvI
Kudos, indeed, to Spain and PM Sanchez for breaking the taboo in Europe.
At the same time it is worth noting that, from a global perspective, Europe/OECD lags well behind world opinion on Palestine.
(Source: @theguardian.com )
At the same time it is worth noting that, from a global perspective, Europe/OECD lags well behind world opinion on Palestine.
(Source: @theguardian.com )
September 21, 2025 at 7:46 PM
Kudos, indeed, to Spain and PM Sanchez for breaking the taboo in Europe.
At the same time it is worth noting that, from a global perspective, Europe/OECD lags well behind world opinion on Palestine.
(Source: @theguardian.com )
At the same time it is worth noting that, from a global perspective, Europe/OECD lags well behind world opinion on Palestine.
(Source: @theguardian.com )
The proximate reason can be seen from the country breakdown. Trump's tariff turmoil & a stronger € have indeed hit EU exports to the US, down around 10% on a year ago. (And imports have risen). But this has been partly offset by strong export growth to important trading partners, UK, CH, TU, NO
4/8
4/8
August 19, 2025 at 12:48 PM
The proximate reason can be seen from the country breakdown. Trump's tariff turmoil & a stronger € have indeed hit EU exports to the US, down around 10% on a year ago. (And imports have risen). But this has been partly offset by strong export growth to important trading partners, UK, CH, TU, NO
4/8
4/8
The headline numbers seem alarming. In June the EU surplus on goods trade was €8bn, down from 13bn the previous month and 20.3bn in June 2024.
Jan-June 2025 also saw a marked fall to 80.1bn from 92.9bn in 2024.
However, this reflects a jump in imports, rather than a contraction of EU exports.
2/8
Jan-June 2025 also saw a marked fall to 80.1bn from 92.9bn in 2024.
However, this reflects a jump in imports, rather than a contraction of EU exports.
2/8
August 19, 2025 at 12:48 PM
The headline numbers seem alarming. In June the EU surplus on goods trade was €8bn, down from 13bn the previous month and 20.3bn in June 2024.
Jan-June 2025 also saw a marked fall to 80.1bn from 92.9bn in 2024.
However, this reflects a jump in imports, rather than a contraction of EU exports.
2/8
Jan-June 2025 also saw a marked fall to 80.1bn from 92.9bn in 2024.
However, this reflects a jump in imports, rather than a contraction of EU exports.
2/8
on.ft.com/45tFsGO
Notwithstanding a widespread belief that governments are powerless to rein in large corporations, we see clearly here that Big Oil initially reacted to policy signals prioritising Green Transition. And as those signals now weaken (EU) or are reversed (US), it reverts to type.
Notwithstanding a widespread belief that governments are powerless to rein in large corporations, we see clearly here that Big Oil initially reacted to policy signals prioritising Green Transition. And as those signals now weaken (EU) or are reversed (US), it reverts to type.
August 11, 2025 at 6:33 AM
on.ft.com/45tFsGO
Notwithstanding a widespread belief that governments are powerless to rein in large corporations, we see clearly here that Big Oil initially reacted to policy signals prioritising Green Transition. And as those signals now weaken (EU) or are reversed (US), it reverts to type.
Notwithstanding a widespread belief that governments are powerless to rein in large corporations, we see clearly here that Big Oil initially reacted to policy signals prioritising Green Transition. And as those signals now weaken (EU) or are reversed (US), it reverts to type.
The media should report this sort of thing more often: good public policy that, over time, improves people's lives.
www.politico.eu/article/hels...
Relentless "breaking bad" news creates a sense of powerlessness. Good policies create benchmarks for other countries.
👍@politico.eu 👏 Helsinki/Finland
www.politico.eu/article/hels...
Relentless "breaking bad" news creates a sense of powerlessness. Good policies create benchmarks for other countries.
👍@politico.eu 👏 Helsinki/Finland
August 2, 2025 at 10:30 AM
The media should report this sort of thing more often: good public policy that, over time, improves people's lives.
www.politico.eu/article/hels...
Relentless "breaking bad" news creates a sense of powerlessness. Good policies create benchmarks for other countries.
👍@politico.eu 👏 Helsinki/Finland
www.politico.eu/article/hels...
Relentless "breaking bad" news creates a sense of powerlessness. Good policies create benchmarks for other countries.
👍@politico.eu 👏 Helsinki/Finland
Update
US tariff revenue rises further, to $28 billion (June).
With a lag but inexorably inflation also rising (2.7%).
Predictions ☝️ being borne out (except stock market hasn't noticed, yet).
(Graph from Martin Wolf's typically terse excoriation of Trump's tariff nightmare on.ft.com/3Ult6vb )
US tariff revenue rises further, to $28 billion (June).
With a lag but inexorably inflation also rising (2.7%).
Predictions ☝️ being borne out (except stock market hasn't noticed, yet).
(Graph from Martin Wolf's typically terse excoriation of Trump's tariff nightmare on.ft.com/3Ult6vb )
July 16, 2025 at 3:49 AM
Update
US tariff revenue rises further, to $28 billion (June).
With a lag but inexorably inflation also rising (2.7%).
Predictions ☝️ being borne out (except stock market hasn't noticed, yet).
(Graph from Martin Wolf's typically terse excoriation of Trump's tariff nightmare on.ft.com/3Ult6vb )
US tariff revenue rises further, to $28 billion (June).
With a lag but inexorably inflation also rising (2.7%).
Predictions ☝️ being borne out (except stock market hasn't noticed, yet).
(Graph from Martin Wolf's typically terse excoriation of Trump's tariff nightmare on.ft.com/3Ult6vb )
The EU would do better to reach agreement with the recipients of these screeds than with their author. The value of any agreement with the latter is dubious at best. A coordinated approach with Japan, Korea, China and other BRICS countries interested in rules-based trade would be powerful indeed.
July 8, 2025 at 5:57 PM
The EU would do better to reach agreement with the recipients of these screeds than with their author. The value of any agreement with the latter is dubious at best. A coordinated approach with Japan, Korea, China and other BRICS countries interested in rules-based trade would be powerful indeed.
The Message, every day for the next 487 days. Oh and something on tariff-induced inflation.
That should do it.
#mid-terms
That should do it.
#mid-terms
July 4, 2025 at 5:48 AM
The Message, every day for the next 487 days. Oh and something on tariff-induced inflation.
That should do it.
#mid-terms
That should do it.
#mid-terms
Update
The House has indeed passed the egregious tax cuts and heartless welfare cuts, plus a massive ramp-up in the domestic repression machinery.
I am usually no fan of an "immiseration thesis", but I'll make an exception for Trump. Sadly, no alternative to MAGA experiencing what it has wrought.
The House has indeed passed the egregious tax cuts and heartless welfare cuts, plus a massive ramp-up in the domestic repression machinery.
I am usually no fan of an "immiseration thesis", but I'll make an exception for Trump. Sadly, no alternative to MAGA experiencing what it has wrought.
July 3, 2025 at 8:56 PM
Update
The House has indeed passed the egregious tax cuts and heartless welfare cuts, plus a massive ramp-up in the domestic repression machinery.
I am usually no fan of an "immiseration thesis", but I'll make an exception for Trump. Sadly, no alternative to MAGA experiencing what it has wrought.
The House has indeed passed the egregious tax cuts and heartless welfare cuts, plus a massive ramp-up in the domestic repression machinery.
I am usually no fan of an "immiseration thesis", but I'll make an exception for Trump. Sadly, no alternative to MAGA experiencing what it has wrought.
on.ft.com/447GxF4
Don't Look Down!
If you do you'll see that globally we are digging out and burning more coal than ever before. Releasing more CO2 and methane than ever. Despite all the commitments, new coal mines and power plants are opening, locking in a strategy everyone knows is unsustainable.
Don't Look Down!
If you do you'll see that globally we are digging out and burning more coal than ever before. Releasing more CO2 and methane than ever. Despite all the commitments, new coal mines and power plants are opening, locking in a strategy everyone knows is unsustainable.
June 28, 2025 at 6:07 AM
on.ft.com/447GxF4
Don't Look Down!
If you do you'll see that globally we are digging out and burning more coal than ever before. Releasing more CO2 and methane than ever. Despite all the commitments, new coal mines and power plants are opening, locking in a strategy everyone knows is unsustainable.
Don't Look Down!
If you do you'll see that globally we are digging out and burning more coal than ever before. Releasing more CO2 and methane than ever. Despite all the commitments, new coal mines and power plants are opening, locking in a strategy everyone knows is unsustainable.
Now it is indeed 24th June 2025, a good time to recall the lies and fantasies that led to the #Brexit disaster.
Daniel #Hannan was far from the only one, but one of the more literate and most deluded.
www.reaction.life/p/britain-lo...
Now Baron Hannan of Kingsclere, warm seat in the House of Lords
Daniel #Hannan was far from the only one, but one of the more literate and most deluded.
www.reaction.life/p/britain-lo...
Now Baron Hannan of Kingsclere, warm seat in the House of Lords
June 24, 2025 at 7:20 AM
Now it is indeed 24th June 2025, a good time to recall the lies and fantasies that led to the #Brexit disaster.
Daniel #Hannan was far from the only one, but one of the more literate and most deluded.
www.reaction.life/p/britain-lo...
Now Baron Hannan of Kingsclere, warm seat in the House of Lords
Daniel #Hannan was far from the only one, but one of the more literate and most deluded.
www.reaction.life/p/britain-lo...
Now Baron Hannan of Kingsclere, warm seat in the House of Lords
on.ft.com/4071Xzv
International prominence must indeed be earned. But the right way.
Depressingly, the ECB President appears not to understand that Europe lacks safe assets PRECISELY BECAUSE the EU has not run large fiscal deficits, which is how such assets are created.
1/2
International prominence must indeed be earned. But the right way.
Depressingly, the ECB President appears not to understand that Europe lacks safe assets PRECISELY BECAUSE the EU has not run large fiscal deficits, which is how such assets are created.
1/2
June 17, 2025 at 8:36 AM
on.ft.com/4071Xzv
International prominence must indeed be earned. But the right way.
Depressingly, the ECB President appears not to understand that Europe lacks safe assets PRECISELY BECAUSE the EU has not run large fiscal deficits, which is how such assets are created.
1/2
International prominence must indeed be earned. But the right way.
Depressingly, the ECB President appears not to understand that Europe lacks safe assets PRECISELY BECAUSE the EU has not run large fiscal deficits, which is how such assets are created.
1/2
Class War from Above. Graphed.
On top of the direct distributional effects, the demand expansion, in conjunction with tariffs, will boost US inflation and force interest rates higher.
At the latest now, every low and middle income US voter must wake up to the fact that MAGA is not on their side.
On top of the direct distributional effects, the demand expansion, in conjunction with tariffs, will boost US inflation and force interest rates higher.
At the latest now, every low and middle income US voter must wake up to the fact that MAGA is not on their side.
May 24, 2025 at 6:04 AM
Class War from Above. Graphed.
On top of the direct distributional effects, the demand expansion, in conjunction with tariffs, will boost US inflation and force interest rates higher.
At the latest now, every low and middle income US voter must wake up to the fact that MAGA is not on their side.
On top of the direct distributional effects, the demand expansion, in conjunction with tariffs, will boost US inflation and force interest rates higher.
At the latest now, every low and middle income US voter must wake up to the fact that MAGA is not on their side.
Update
Tariff revenue is starting to rise, initially only $10bn, but much more to come. Meanwhile the tax bill has passed the House and the fiscal black hole looks set to be way above expectations (CBO: $3 trn over a decade). Fiscal pressures will militate against a return to low tariffs.
Tariff revenue is starting to rise, initially only $10bn, but much more to come. Meanwhile the tax bill has passed the House and the fiscal black hole looks set to be way above expectations (CBO: $3 trn over a decade). Fiscal pressures will militate against a return to low tariffs.
May 23, 2025 at 7:02 AM
Update
Tariff revenue is starting to rise, initially only $10bn, but much more to come. Meanwhile the tax bill has passed the House and the fiscal black hole looks set to be way above expectations (CBO: $3 trn over a decade). Fiscal pressures will militate against a return to low tariffs.
Tariff revenue is starting to rise, initially only $10bn, but much more to come. Meanwhile the tax bill has passed the House and the fiscal black hole looks set to be way above expectations (CBO: $3 trn over a decade). Fiscal pressures will militate against a return to low tariffs.
Our current human predicament in two headlines.
Just a few short years ago there was a strong, globally shared consensus that policymakers needed to focus on the collective action needed to halt global heating. And at least some signs of burden sharing.
Just a few short years ago there was a strong, globally shared consensus that policymakers needed to focus on the collective action needed to halt global heating. And at least some signs of burden sharing.
May 14, 2025 at 10:26 PM
Our current human predicament in two headlines.
Just a few short years ago there was a strong, globally shared consensus that policymakers needed to focus on the collective action needed to halt global heating. And at least some signs of burden sharing.
Just a few short years ago there was a strong, globally shared consensus that policymakers needed to focus on the collective action needed to halt global heating. And at least some signs of burden sharing.
Context: the working age population of Italy has been falling for around 15 years and is now around 2 million below its peak.
May 4, 2025 at 6:29 PM
Context: the working age population of Italy has been falling for around 15 years and is now around 2 million below its peak.
50 years ago today, #Vietnam was finally unified, independent and at peace after decades of struggle against colonial powers, foreign intervention and internal division.
#ReunificationDay
(Photo: the-past.com/shorts/the-p...)
1/4
#ReunificationDay
(Photo: the-past.com/shorts/the-p...)
1/4
April 30, 2025 at 7:37 AM
50 years ago today, #Vietnam was finally unified, independent and at peace after decades of struggle against colonial powers, foreign intervention and internal division.
#ReunificationDay
(Photo: the-past.com/shorts/the-p...)
1/4
#ReunificationDay
(Photo: the-past.com/shorts/the-p...)
1/4
Trump opens the bidding for US companies hit by #tariffs 👇 (never mind foreigners were supposed to pay for them).
And there is evidence from his previous presidency where this leads.
Source: www.npr.org/2025/03/07/n...
And there is evidence from his previous presidency where this leads.
Source: www.npr.org/2025/03/07/n...
April 10, 2025 at 6:42 AM
Trump opens the bidding for US companies hit by #tariffs 👇 (never mind foreigners were supposed to pay for them).
And there is evidence from his previous presidency where this leads.
Source: www.npr.org/2025/03/07/n...
And there is evidence from his previous presidency where this leads.
Source: www.npr.org/2025/03/07/n...
Belatedly and agonisingly slowly, US support for Israel is declining and sympathy for Palestinians rising. But by the time the curves cross and US backing of the slaughter stops, it may well be too late. 💔
(Via @adamtooze.bsky.social)
(Via @adamtooze.bsky.social)
March 19, 2025 at 5:08 PM
Belatedly and agonisingly slowly, US support for Israel is declining and sympathy for Palestinians rising. But by the time the curves cross and US backing of the slaughter stops, it may well be too late. 💔
(Via @adamtooze.bsky.social)
(Via @adamtooze.bsky.social)
Hard to top the news from the US, but this is nothing short of disastrous. An oil major expanding fossil fuel output while cutting investment in renewables, under shareholder pressure, means public decarbonisation policies are not working.
on.ft.com/4hT8sNq
on.ft.com/4hT8sNq
February 27, 2025 at 5:15 AM
Hard to top the news from the US, but this is nothing short of disastrous. An oil major expanding fossil fuel output while cutting investment in renewables, under shareholder pressure, means public decarbonisation policies are not working.
on.ft.com/4hT8sNq
on.ft.com/4hT8sNq
Ah the good old days when America was anti-fascist.
From the cover of the first Captain America comic, 1941.
(Own photo, Superhelden exhibition, Düsseldorf)
From the cover of the first Captain America comic, 1941.
(Own photo, Superhelden exhibition, Düsseldorf)
February 23, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Ah the good old days when America was anti-fascist.
From the cover of the first Captain America comic, 1941.
(Own photo, Superhelden exhibition, Düsseldorf)
From the cover of the first Captain America comic, 1941.
(Own photo, Superhelden exhibition, Düsseldorf)
4 headlines sum up our current predicament.
Climate change - more than counter measures - has huge economic and human costs. But financial and political priorities are shifting away.
Climate change - more than counter measures - has huge economic and human costs. But financial and political priorities are shifting away.
January 13, 2025 at 7:20 AM
4 headlines sum up our current predicament.
Climate change - more than counter measures - has huge economic and human costs. But financial and political priorities are shifting away.
Climate change - more than counter measures - has huge economic and human costs. But financial and political priorities are shifting away.
A bit later and downstream ...
January 3, 2025 at 10:06 PM
A bit later and downstream ...