Andrew Watt
@andrewwatteu.bsky.social
General Director, European Trade Union Institute
@etui.bsky.social
Formerly www.imk-boeckler.de
EU economic governance, comparative political economy, European integration, socio-ecological transition, wage bargaining
Deutschland-Versteher
Vietnam ..
more
General Director, European Trade Union Institute
@etui.bsky.social
Formerly www.imk-boeckler.de
EU economic governance, comparative political economy, European integration, socio-ecological transition, wage bargaining
Deutschland-Versteher
Vietnam
Economics
58%
Political science
32%
especially of immigrants, go hand in hand.
Moreover, unwittingly or not, it also provides justification ex post to Putin wrt Ukraine and ex ante to China wrt Taiwan. The holder of the FIFA peace prize and declared opponent of forever wars makes international armed conflict all the more likely.
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Moreover, unwittingly or not, it also provides justification ex post to Putin wrt Ukraine and ex ante to China wrt Taiwan. The holder of the FIFA peace prize and declared opponent of forever wars makes international armed conflict all the more likely.
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The biggest geopolitical concern is 2026 is that, faced with a hammering in the November midterms, Trump will double down on his already authoritarian policies. Bombing Venezuela at the very start of the year is a very worrying sign of his intentions. War and domestic repression ...
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Our history is murky but we hold it in the palm of our hand. We are not condemned to repeat all our past mistakes.
Wishing all bluesky folllowers a happy and healthy 2026.
Wishing all bluesky folllowers a happy and healthy 2026.
The charts clearly show that the world simply cannot afford another three years of this utter madness. (No lesser word will do.)
Excellent reporting @financialtimes.com. pls give the world a Christmas 🎁 by un-paywalling it!
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Excellent reporting @financialtimes.com. pls give the world a Christmas 🎁 by un-paywalling it!
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Climate policy suffers blistering setbacks in 2025 despite clean energy boom
US retreat much worse and faster than expected in second Trump administration
giftarticle.ft.com
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Of all the changes wrought by the Trump administration, the single most damaging in the longer term is almost certainly his attack on the green transition and his fossil-boosterism. Partly because of the copycat effect it has had in the EU.
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Of all the changes wrought by the Trump administration, the single most damaging in the longer term is almost certainly his attack on the green transition and his fossil-boosterism. Partly because of the copycat effect it has had in the EU.
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Tech groups shift $120bn of AI data centre debt off balance sheets
Creative financing helps insulate Big Tech while binding Wall Street to a future boom or bust
giftarticle.ft.com
Update
If you missed Special Purpose Vehicles, securitisation, & lack of transparency about who ultimately carries the can 👆, I can help you: giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
SPVs are not inherently dangerous, and volumes are still small. But for tech giants to pay a premium to shift risk is 🚨!
If you missed Special Purpose Vehicles, securitisation, & lack of transparency about who ultimately carries the can 👆, I can help you: giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
SPVs are not inherently dangerous, and volumes are still small. But for tech giants to pay a premium to shift risk is 🚨!
of bonds held by banks and insurance companies will decline. These are investment grade bonds, currently considered (& priced as) almost as safe as US treasuries. Until they aren't.
Sound familiar?
AI does have an upside potential that real estate lacks, but if it is not realised soon, 😱 beckons
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Sound familiar?
AI does have an upside potential that real estate lacks, but if it is not realised soon, 😱 beckons
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AI debt boom pushes US corporate bond sales close to record
Investment-grade borrowers have issued $1.7tn of bonds this year, closing in on 2020’s Covid debt rush
giftarticle.ft.com
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Almost a third of US investment-grade corporate bond issuance, which is close to record levels, is to finance AI buildout.
If (when?) the AI bubble bursts or deflates, not only will real investment contract sharply. Bond defaults will increase. And the value
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Almost a third of US investment-grade corporate bond issuance, which is close to record levels, is to finance AI buildout.
If (when?) the AI bubble bursts or deflates, not only will real investment contract sharply. Bond defaults will increase. And the value
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Reposted by Andrew Watt
ETUI
@etui.bsky.social
· 12d
📣 New #JobAlert
💻 The ETUI is looking for a Database Administrator to play a central role in the Institute's #data-driven activities.
🌐 The successful candidate will be responsible for managing, securing, and optimising core data assets.
Apply here 🔗 etui.org/4Z5
@andrewwatteu.bsky.social
💻 The ETUI is looking for a Database Administrator to play a central role in the Institute's #data-driven activities.
🌐 The successful candidate will be responsible for managing, securing, and optimising core data assets.
Apply here 🔗 etui.org/4Z5
@andrewwatteu.bsky.social
Reposted by Matthias Schnetzer
www.etui.org
Interested in joining the great team @etui.bsky.social ?
We have 3 openings with application deadlines in January:
Database administrator
Managing editor of our Journal TRANSFER
Administrative assistant
Details: www.etui.org/about-etui/t...
We have 3 openings with application deadlines in January:
Database administrator
Managing editor of our Journal TRANSFER
Administrative assistant
Details: www.etui.org/about-etui/t...
The argument is that Europe underperforms in tech and biotech because it is “too expensive” to fire people.That may sound intuitively appealing but it is profoundly misleading.
Europe won’t innovate more by firing people faster
The argument is that Europe underperforms in tech and biotech because it is “too expensive” to fire people.That may sound intuitively appealing but it is profoundly misleading.
euobserver.com
It is important that Europe creates an environment in which start-ups and existing companies can scale up new activities, there can be experimentation and hings that don't work are allowed to fail. But flexible firing rules are not an important part of that environment. 👇
Reposted by Andrew Watt, Meri Koivusalo
Europe won’t innovate more by firing people faster
The argument is that Europe underperforms in tech and biotech because it is “too expensive” to fire people.That may sound intuitively appealing but it is profoundly misleading.
euobserver.com
The argument is that Europe underperforms in tech and biotech because it is “too expensive” to fire people.That may sound intuitively appealing but it is profoundly misleading.
If this is not done the risks of a repeat of the 1920s and 30s are high: Domestic economic and social crises and international trade and financial disintegration feed upon each other, leading via aggressive nationalism to military conflict.
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Cooperative rebalancing along these lines wd reduce international tensions. Governments can deliver rising living standards at full employment with neither inflationary nor deflationary risks. Climate & social spending can take precedence over military. Wind is taken from the populists' sails.
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... reduced production subsidies, easier market access and currency revaluation.
Europe must revamp its economic governance to invest massively in public goods, increasing its competitiveness, resilience and sustainability, incl. shouldering more of its defence burden.
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Europe must revamp its economic governance to invest massively in public goods, increasing its competitiveness, resilience and sustainability, incl. shouldering more of its defence burden.
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The USA must end its disruptive trade war and return tariffs to previous levels. Fiscal policy needs to be appreciably tighter and the dollar allowed to depreciate.
China must increase consumption of its own and overseas production by some combination of higher wages, improved social welfare...
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China must increase consumption of its own and overseas production by some combination of higher wages, improved social welfare...
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We urgently need to rebalance EU-China relations
Resolving serious trade imbalances will require co-operation and co-ordinated action
giftarticle.ft.com
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
President Macron might not be great at French politics, but he is right about the need for a cooperative rebalancing of the global economy. And for the EU to take measures if the US & China don't play ball.
The steps the 3 blocks need to take are rather clear.
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President Macron might not be great at French politics, but he is right about the need for a cooperative rebalancing of the global economy. And for the EU to take measures if the US & China don't play ball.
The steps the 3 blocks need to take are rather clear.
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The key distinction Europe must make on trade policies
The region must be clear on the difference between inefficiency and a lack of global competitiveness
giftarticle.ft.com
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Europe's economy has long been hobbled less by red tape than by a mindset that sought competitiveness through wage moderation and internal devaluation, constraining domestic demand.
But China is outdoing it while the US refuses to be the consumer of last resort.
Europe's economy has long been hobbled less by red tape than by a mindset that sought competitiveness through wage moderation and internal devaluation, constraining domestic demand.
But China is outdoing it while the US refuses to be the consumer of last resort.
Warst du nicht auch für 2025 hoffnungsvoll? Was bringt der Aufschwung nun 2026?
Year-end reflections: 10 lessons from 2025 – and one key prediction.
I reflect on the year that has passed. I summarise 10 key lessons I learned – and I make one prediction for 2026, namely that there is still no better place to live, and invest, than in Europe.
open.substack.com
open.substack.com/pub/independ...
Admirably concise and clear-sighted, @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social on 2025 and the prospects for a better 2026ff
Admirably concise and clear-sighted, @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social on 2025 and the prospects for a better 2026ff
It remains to be seen how durable the Trump administration will prove. But as long as MAGA remains in power, Europe must very rapidly overcome its internal frictions and dysfunctions if it is not to be picked off as dead meat.
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László Andor (@laszloandoreu)
US NSS adapts to multipolarity
🔸The publication of the new National Security Strategy of the US outlines a new course, driven by the understanding that the world is moving towards multipolarity. It c...
substack.com
Recommended:
This analysis of the US National Security Strategy by Laszlo Andor
substack.com/@laszloandor...
It closes with "Trump is neither a hawk nor a dove but a vulture."
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This analysis of the US National Security Strategy by Laszlo Andor
substack.com/@laszloandor...
It closes with "Trump is neither a hawk nor a dove but a vulture."
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The problem is indeed much bigger for the UK bc of the greater relative importance of the EU market.
But the EU suffers if, due to Brexit, it sources goods from overseas at higher cost or - the main concern now - from places that can prove unreliable.
Also, makes it harder for EU to export to UK.
But the EU suffers if, due to Brexit, it sources goods from overseas at higher cost or - the main concern now - from places that can prove unreliable.
Also, makes it harder for EU to export to UK.
Source:
Via John Auther's newsletter, originally from Absolute Strategy Research.
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Via John Auther's newsletter, originally from Absolute Strategy Research.
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Since the #Brexit referendum real imports by the EU from the UK have declined by more than 40% (while increasing slightly overall). A disaster for British exporters.
But the trade distortion is also not good for the EU. Especially when the geopolitical/economic situation is so....complicated.
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But the trade distortion is also not good for the EU. Especially when the geopolitical/economic situation is so....complicated.
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US national security strategy.
Something sure is unrecognisable here, but it’s not Europe.
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
Something sure is unrecognisable here, but it’s not Europe.
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
Just how much do we have to see before Europeans stop saying that the US has become an unreliable ally?
It is officially pursuing key interests that are diametrically opposed to European interests & values.
For at least as long as the Trump administration wields power the US is not an EU ally.
It is officially pursuing key interests that are diametrically opposed to European interests & values.
For at least as long as the Trump administration wields power the US is not an EU ally.
US national security strategy.
Something sure is unrecognisable here, but it’s not Europe.
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
Something sure is unrecognisable here, but it’s not Europe.
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
Reposted by Steve Peers
Andrew Watt
@andrewwatteu.bsky.social
· Dec 4
The CJEU ruling on the Adequate Minimum Wages Directive: opening a door for progressive social experimentation? (Part I) | OHRH
ohrh.law.ox.ac.uk
Update
The important ramifications of the European Court of Justice Ruling on the Adequate Minimum Wage Directive are analysed by two colleagues @etui.bsky.social in this double-barreled blog:
Part I: ohrh.law.ox.ac.uk/the-cjeu-rul...
Part II: ohrh.law.ox.ac.uk/the-cjeu-rul...
The important ramifications of the European Court of Justice Ruling on the Adequate Minimum Wage Directive are analysed by two colleagues @etui.bsky.social in this double-barreled blog:
Part I: ohrh.law.ox.ac.uk/the-cjeu-rul...
Part II: ohrh.law.ox.ac.uk/the-cjeu-rul...
Reposted by Francesco Saraceno
Andrew Watt
@andrewwatteu.bsky.social
· Dec 2
substack.com/@paulkrugman...
In difficult, worrying, often depressing times, @pkrugman.bsky.social (and Robin Wells) is an inspiration. To all who (still) believe in the value of respect for facts, analytical rigour, open debate, public spiritedness, hard work (and a sense of humour).
In difficult, worrying, often depressing times, @pkrugman.bsky.social (and Robin Wells) is an inspiration. To all who (still) believe in the value of respect for facts, analytical rigour, open debate, public spiritedness, hard work (and a sense of humour).
Andrew Watt
@andrewwatteu.bsky.social
· Dec 1
Indeed without such cooperation, competition btwn jurisdictions for mobile taxpayers will drive top income & wealth-tax rates -> zero, while immobile labour will be forced to shoulder the increasing public costs associated w/ ageing, climate change, security. The far right will reap the harvest
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