Jacob Montgomery
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jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
3.7K followers 1.2K following 960 posts

Political (Data) Scientist at Washington University in St. Louis. Data science, social media, American politics, and grumpy Bayesian. All opinions my own.

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Political science 32%
Computer science 20%
Posts Replies Media Videos

Reposted by Jacob Montgomery

dandrezner.bsky.social
Daniel Drezner @dandrezner.bsky.social · 5d
Thanks to Bari Weiss for testing whether the Streisand Effect still has any juice.

Reposted by Jacob Montgomery, Daniel W. Drezner, David R. Miller , and 2 more

lemieuxlgm.bsky.social
Scott Lemieux @lemieuxlgm.bsky.social · 5d
LOL "Bari killed this meticulous story because it was unfavorable to the Trump administration" is literally the story they're giving to their stenographer

jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 7d
From a bunch of terrorists dressed up like Fabio for some reason…

jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 7d
Her boss flew her estranged husband out for Christmas!? And then he gets triggered because she is using her maiden name? Like a dissertation worth of late 80s male angst.

jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 7d
Man I had really forgotten the crazy gender dynamics of the first 20 minutes of Die Hard….

Reposted by Jacob Montgomery, Robert C. Richards

bensilverstein.bsky.social
Ben Silverstein ❌👑 @bensilverstein.bsky.social · 7d
ICE is refusing to release a US citizen despite extensive documentation of her citizenship. Presented with her birth certificate, they called it a fake and transferred her from Maryland to Louisiana. www.huffpost.com/entry/us-cit...
Trump Administration Says Maryland Woman's Birth Certificate Is Fake In Dystopian Move
Dulce Consuelo Diaz Morales was arrested on Sunday. ICE won’t release her despite extensive documentation of her citizenship, her attorneys told HuffPost.
www.huffpost.com

Reposted by Anne Applebaum, Stephen M. Walt, Nina Jankowicz , and 14 more

jonfischer.bsky.social
Jonathan L. Fischer @jonfischer.bsky.social · 7d
NEWS: They're adding Trump's name to the Kennedy Center building right now. www.washingtonpost.com/entertainmen...
Kennedy Center adds Trump’s name to building
The signage change follows a vote by the board of trustees to rename the performing arts complex the Trump Kennedy Center.
www.washingtonpost.com

jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 8d
Weird how checking this website persistently hasn't helped me grade. At. All.

Reposted by Jacob Montgomery

dandrezner.bsky.social
Daniel Drezner @dandrezner.bsky.social · 9d
It’s not just that Trump lied constantly during his speech tonight; I’m not sure he said a single thing that was factually correct.

Reposted by Richard E. Lenski, Jacob Montgomery, Aaron Sojourner

cmewing.bsky.social
Connor Ewing @cmewing.bsky.social · 9d
Simpler times

Reposted by Michael E. Mann, Jacob Montgomery, Anders Nilsson , and 1 more

parkermolloy.com
Parker Molloy @parkermolloy.com · 9d
You'll remember that when Biden delivered an address in 2022, networks refused to air it because they said it was "political" www.washingtonpost.com/media/2022/0...
As Biden warned about democracy’s collapse, TV networks aired reruns
Broadcasters NBC, CBS and ABC usually air presidential prime-time addresses live. But they found Biden's Philadelphia speech more "political" than newsworthy.
www.washingtonpost.com

Reposted by Jacob Montgomery, David R. Miller

judiciarydems.senate.gov
Senate Judiciary Democrats 🇺🇸 @judiciarydems.senate.gov · 9d
PAINFUL to watch. There’s a clear Trump judicial nominee loyalty test.

They must forever deny, deny, deny that he lost the 2020 presidential election.

Fragile.

jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 10d
Totally agree. I just think it's early days yet on this. We'll see ...

jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 10d
I agree for now.

But I didn't think I could chit chat with a computer about R sytnax 4 years ago, so I think it's worth being at least a bit open minded.

jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 10d
I think that sounds right as things currently stand.

But that's a distinction in how the model is being trained and used. It is not about the class of models being used to impute per se.

jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 10d
I think I mostly agree? But then ...

www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Not Asked and Not Answered: Multiple Imputation for Multiple Surveys
We present a method of analyzing a series of independent cross-sectional surveys in which some questions are not answered in some surveys and some respondents do not answer some of the questions po...
www.tandfonline.com

jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 10d
I think the idea is we can use it for like pre-testing, working on survey flow, etc? Not that they provide a substitute for real survey response.

jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 10d
And to be clear, I remain highly skeptical that we *currently* know how to do this well.

But the position that we cannot possibly use AI to impute survey data in a scientifically valid way seems inconsistent with what we are *already* doing.

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan

jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 10d
Just to stir the pot a bit ....

If you are really, deeply against using machine learning to create synthetic survey responses, I have bad news for you about MRP.

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan

jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 11d
American Greatness!
casmudde.bsky.social Cas Mudde @casmudde.bsky.social · 11d
Holy measles, Batman! 😳

Reposted by Jacob Montgomery

casmudde.bsky.social
Cas Mudde @casmudde.bsky.social · 11d
Holy measles, Batman! 😳

Reposted by Nicholas A. Christakis, Marco Festa‐Bianchet, Lesley A. Hall , and 30 more

andrew.heiss.phd
Andrew Heiss @andrew.heiss.phd · 11d
Grading and googling hallucinated citations, as one does nowadays, and now that LLMs have been around for a while, I've discovered new horrors: hallucinated journals are now appearing in Google Scholar with dozens of citations bc so many people are citing these fake things

Reposted by Jacob Montgomery, Timothy D. McBride

gabbygiffords.bsky.social
Gabby Giffords @gabbygiffords.bsky.social · 12d
13 years ago, 20 children and 6 educators never came home from Sandy Hook Elementary School. They were killed in their classrooms in a shooting that changed our nation forever.

Reposted by Jacob Montgomery

reuning.bsky.social
Kevin Reuning @reuning.bsky.social · 12d
>Police body cameras equipped with artificial intelligence have been trained to detect the faces of about 7,000 people on a “high risk” watch list in the Canadian city of Edmonton, a

This is terrifying.
AI-powered police body cameras, once taboo, get tested on Canadian city’s ‘watch list’ of faces - ICT
A criminology professor said the police service has had a sometimes ‘frosty’ relationship with its Indigenous and Black residents and it remains to be seen whether facial recognition technology makes ...
ictnews.org

Reposted by Jacob Montgomery, Julie Novkov

jacasiegel.bsky.social
Jaclyn A. Siegel, PhD @jacasiegel.bsky.social · 14d
I sent someone a peer review request, and they accepted it within 15 minutes… I could cry. For the last paper I tried to send out, I had to request 14 reviewers to get 2 people to agree, and it took almost 2 months.

Reposted by Jacob Montgomery

nytpitchbot.bsky.social
NY Times Pitchbot @nytpitchbot.bsky.social · 15d
Liberals are constantly trying to indoctrinate our young people. You can see the proof in this colorful PragerU video presented by the Young America's Foundation at a Turning Point USA school club meeting.

jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 15d
I was unprepared for the fact that one of the only American institutions stand against authoritarianism would be the jury system.

www.cnn.com/2025/12/11/p...
Justice Department fails to reindict Letitia James for a second time | CNN Politics
A grand jury, for a second time, declined to bring a new indictment against Letitia James, the New York attorney general who defeated President Donald Trump and his company in court, according to mult...
www.cnn.com

Reposted by Shibley Telhami, Will Jennings, Steve Peers , and 13 more

chrislhayes.bsky.social
Chris Hayes @chrislhayes.bsky.social · 15d
Trump 0-3 on indicting Tish James and just had his ass handed to him by Indiana Republican legislators he threatened and bullied. Also new low in AP poll at 36% approval.

Reposted by Jacob Montgomery

jjvincent.bsky.social
James Vincent @jjvincent.bsky.social · 16d
missed this last week: trains in Lancaster were cancelled after AI-generated images of a bridge collapse were shared on social media following a real earthquake. god, we're really not ready to resist an engagement-driven online ecosystem empowered by AI fakes www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Reposted by Jacob Montgomery

mikecrespin.bsky.social
Mike Crespin @mikecrespin.bsky.social · 18d
Now that you can't fail with the Bible, and we are moving finals for football, the questions, "Is Oklahoma in the south?" has officially been answered.