Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Political (Data) Scientist at Washington University in St. Louis. Data science, social media, American politics, and grumpy Bayesian. All opinions my own.
Reposted by Jacob Montgomery
there is so much Beta in (econometrics) books
November 11, 2025 at 2:15 AM
there is so much Beta in (econometrics) books
Reposted by Jacob Montgomery
*Women receive substantially lower "potential" ratings despite receiving higher performance ratings
*Differences in potential ratings account for half of the gender promotion gap
*Women’s lower potential ratings do not reflect future performance: women subsequently outperform male colleagues
*Differences in potential ratings account for half of the gender promotion gap
*Women’s lower potential ratings do not reflect future performance: women subsequently outperform male colleagues
Forthcoming in the AER: "“Potential” and the Gender Promotion Gap" by Alan Benson, Danielle Li, and Kelly Shue. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
“Potential” and the Gender Promotion Gap
(Forthcoming Article) - We show that subjective assessments of employee “potential” contribute to gender gaps
in promotion and pay. Using data on 29,809 management-track employees from a
large retail ...
www.aeaweb.org
November 10, 2025 at 2:54 PM
*Women receive substantially lower "potential" ratings despite receiving higher performance ratings
*Differences in potential ratings account for half of the gender promotion gap
*Women’s lower potential ratings do not reflect future performance: women subsequently outperform male colleagues
*Differences in potential ratings account for half of the gender promotion gap
*Women’s lower potential ratings do not reflect future performance: women subsequently outperform male colleagues
Reposted by Jacob Montgomery
Donald Trump is Joe Biden now
POTUS's job approval on prices is where Biden's was during peak inflation in 2022-23. Voters say 2:1 that Trump has made the economy worse. Oh, and consumer sentiment among independents hit a new all-time low in November, www.gelliottmorris.com/p/donald-tru...
POTUS's job approval on prices is where Biden's was during peak inflation in 2022-23. Voters say 2:1 that Trump has made the economy worse. Oh, and consumer sentiment among independents hit a new all-time low in November, www.gelliottmorris.com/p/donald-tru...
Donald Trump is Joe Biden now
The president's numbers on prices are where Biden's were during peak inflation in 2022-23.
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:07 PM
Donald Trump is Joe Biden now
POTUS's job approval on prices is where Biden's was during peak inflation in 2022-23. Voters say 2:1 that Trump has made the economy worse. Oh, and consumer sentiment among independents hit a new all-time low in November, www.gelliottmorris.com/p/donald-tru...
POTUS's job approval on prices is where Biden's was during peak inflation in 2022-23. Voters say 2:1 that Trump has made the economy worse. Oh, and consumer sentiment among independents hit a new all-time low in November, www.gelliottmorris.com/p/donald-tru...
Guys he actually did it ....
November 10, 2025 at 9:33 PM
Guys he actually did it ....
Reposted by Jacob Montgomery
MSNBC reported Schumer's office felt that the longer that shutdown went on, the more likely it was that people would start to blame the Dems.
My kingdom for Democrats that don't govern out of fear. I've said it before and I'll say it again: The American people are far braver than their reps.
My kingdom for Democrats that don't govern out of fear. I've said it before and I'll say it again: The American people are far braver than their reps.
November 10, 2025 at 2:18 AM
MSNBC reported Schumer's office felt that the longer that shutdown went on, the more likely it was that people would start to blame the Dems.
My kingdom for Democrats that don't govern out of fear. I've said it before and I'll say it again: The American people are far braver than their reps.
My kingdom for Democrats that don't govern out of fear. I've said it before and I'll say it again: The American people are far braver than their reps.
Reposted by Jacob Montgomery
Chris Murphy: "There will be pretty substantial damage to a Dem brand that has been rehabilitated if on the heels of an election in which the people told us to keep fighting, we immediately stop... if we surrender without having gotten anything, I worry it'll be hard to get them back up off the mat"
November 7, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Chris Murphy: "There will be pretty substantial damage to a Dem brand that has been rehabilitated if on the heels of an election in which the people told us to keep fighting, we immediately stop... if we surrender without having gotten anything, I worry it'll be hard to get them back up off the mat"
Reposted by Jacob Montgomery
Chuck Schumer Helps Pull Democrats Back From Brink Of Courage
November 10, 2025 at 5:02 AM
Chuck Schumer Helps Pull Democrats Back From Brink Of Courage
Reposted by Jacob Montgomery
seems to me that those democrats inclined not to fight perceive themselves as living through a somewhat ordinary cycle of presidential overreach and backlash and not something much more significant and dangerous
November 10, 2025 at 12:50 PM
seems to me that those democrats inclined not to fight perceive themselves as living through a somewhat ordinary cycle of presidential overreach and backlash and not something much more significant and dangerous
Reposted by Jacob Montgomery
Call the United States Capitol switchboard at (202) 224-3121 and they will connect you with your senator's office.
If you're represented by one of the squishier centrists, be sure to make a call. Now.
If you're represented by one of the squishier centrists, be sure to make a call. Now.
Sounds like the squishes in the senate caucus are ready to pull the plug with no ACA changes. This is real. If you want to register your opinion you shld call yr senator in the next hour. They not only want to reopen w/nothing. They want cover from their colleagues who still want to hold out.
November 9, 2025 at 8:47 PM
Call the United States Capitol switchboard at (202) 224-3121 and they will connect you with your senator's office.
If you're represented by one of the squishier centrists, be sure to make a call. Now.
If you're represented by one of the squishier centrists, be sure to make a call. Now.
Reposted by Jacob Montgomery
I saw someone on my timeline shaming someone else for posting about college football in a time like this.
Folks, if we're going to survive a time like this, we're going to need to avoid burning out from an attitude of 24/7 vigilance and constant outrage.
Let people find joy where they can, please.
Folks, if we're going to survive a time like this, we're going to need to avoid burning out from an attitude of 24/7 vigilance and constant outrage.
Let people find joy where they can, please.
November 8, 2025 at 8:56 PM
I saw someone on my timeline shaming someone else for posting about college football in a time like this.
Folks, if we're going to survive a time like this, we're going to need to avoid burning out from an attitude of 24/7 vigilance and constant outrage.
Let people find joy where they can, please.
Folks, if we're going to survive a time like this, we're going to need to avoid burning out from an attitude of 24/7 vigilance and constant outrage.
Let people find joy where they can, please.
Reposted by Jacob Montgomery
Reposted by Jacob Montgomery
Cornell, like other capitulators, shamefully justifies this by saying it preserves *our* independence. Even if that were true, it is pure moral cowardice to take the every-institution-for-itself approach when extortionist is rampaging through our academic community.
November 7, 2025 at 7:28 PM
Cornell, like other capitulators, shamefully justifies this by saying it preserves *our* independence. Even if that were true, it is pure moral cowardice to take the every-institution-for-itself approach when extortionist is rampaging through our academic community.
Reposted by Jacob Montgomery
10/10 take. No notes.
November 7, 2025 at 5:49 PM
10/10 take. No notes.
My next lecture is going to be so cringe, no cap.
Do you teach #rstats? Do your students complain about how lame and old-fashioned dplyr is? Don't worry: I have the solution for you: github.com/hadley/genzp....
genzplyr is dplyr, but bussin fr fr no cap.
genzplyr is dplyr, but bussin fr fr no cap.
GitHub - hadley/genzplyr: dplyr but make it bussin fr fr no cap
dplyr but make it bussin fr fr no cap. Contribute to hadley/genzplyr development by creating an account on GitHub.
github.com
November 7, 2025 at 1:16 PM
My next lecture is going to be so cringe, no cap.
Reposted by Jacob Montgomery
Dear Pundits trying to figure out which of these people is the real and successful Dem party. They all are. This is a national party that has to suit our great diversity while being recognizably D together and being recognizably not R, esp today. Looking at you, Bezos.
November 7, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Dear Pundits trying to figure out which of these people is the real and successful Dem party. They all are. This is a national party that has to suit our great diversity while being recognizably D together and being recognizably not R, esp today. Looking at you, Bezos.
Reposted by Jacob Montgomery
LLMs are now widely used in social science as stand-ins for humans—assuming they can produce realistic, human-like text
But... can they? We don’t actually know.
In our new study, we develop a Computational Turing Test.
And our findings are striking:
LLMs may be far less human-like than we think.🧵
But... can they? We don’t actually know.
In our new study, we develop a Computational Turing Test.
And our findings are striking:
LLMs may be far less human-like than we think.🧵
Computational Turing Test Reveals Systematic Differences Between Human and AI Language
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in the social sciences to simulate human behavior, based on the assumption that they can generate realistic, human-like text. Yet this assumption rem...
arxiv.org
November 7, 2025 at 11:13 AM
LLMs are now widely used in social science as stand-ins for humans—assuming they can produce realistic, human-like text
But... can they? We don’t actually know.
In our new study, we develop a Computational Turing Test.
And our findings are striking:
LLMs may be far less human-like than we think.🧵
But... can they? We don’t actually know.
In our new study, we develop a Computational Turing Test.
And our findings are striking:
LLMs may be far less human-like than we think.🧵
Reposted by Jacob Montgomery
bro are you fucking kidding me
![quote from the Economist article which says "[study authors] are now looking at whether AI facial analysis can give lenders useful clues about a person’s propensity to repay loans. For people without access to credit, that could be a blessing."](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:6ofjbklfvptnupad4lxumblw/bafkreia3yctiqd7ejumpd6novxjpiycphtfkc3bdgd573jw37faqdl7o7m@jpeg)
November 6, 2025 at 5:59 PM
bro are you fucking kidding me
Not all heroes wear capes.
Do you teach #rstats? Do your students complain about how lame and old-fashioned dplyr is? Don't worry: I have the solution for you: github.com/hadley/genzp....
genzplyr is dplyr, but bussin fr fr no cap.
genzplyr is dplyr, but bussin fr fr no cap.
GitHub - hadley/genzplyr: dplyr but make it bussin fr fr no cap
dplyr but make it bussin fr fr no cap. Contribute to hadley/genzplyr development by creating an account on GitHub.
github.com
November 7, 2025 at 12:02 PM
Not all heroes wear capes.
I always wish I could be at the meetings for these. Is it like, “well sure we employ literally hundreds of experts in teaching and pedagogy, but what if we just had Shiela from comms write it.”
Everyone: “Brilliant!”
Everyone: “Brilliant!”
Thinking of starting a cartel of faculty who will voluntarily repeatedly fail ridiculous mandatory trainings to convince the writers of the trainings that they need to be rewritten.
For example, I don't handle hazardous material. So, maybe I fail that one 100 times?
#Satire
For example, I don't handle hazardous material. So, maybe I fail that one 100 times?
#Satire
November 7, 2025 at 2:08 AM
I always wish I could be at the meetings for these. Is it like, “well sure we employ literally hundreds of experts in teaching and pedagogy, but what if we just had Shiela from comms write it.”
Everyone: “Brilliant!”
Everyone: “Brilliant!”
Filling your social media feed with Deep Fake videos of yourself is a pretty good way to invite people to make other Deep Fake videos with content you don't like.
C'mon Internet ... do your thing.
C'mon Internet ... do your thing.
So this appears to be an AI avatar of the President of the United States talking about nuclear weapons? What could go wrong!!
truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...
truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...
November 6, 2025 at 8:11 PM
Filling your social media feed with Deep Fake videos of yourself is a pretty good way to invite people to make other Deep Fake videos with content you don't like.
C'mon Internet ... do your thing.
C'mon Internet ... do your thing.
So this appears to be an AI avatar of the President of the United States talking about nuclear weapons? What could go wrong!!
truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...
truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...
November 6, 2025 at 6:45 PM
So this appears to be an AI avatar of the President of the United States talking about nuclear weapons? What could go wrong!!
truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...
truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...
November 6, 2025 at 6:36 PM
The pronatalist propaganda coming from the right these days is just deeply creepy.
“In response to questions from The Post, Morgan pointed to a quotation from slain conservative activist Charlie Kirk encouraging people to get married and have children that Heritage displayed on its building.”
“In response to questions from The Post, Morgan pointed to a quotation from slain conservative activist Charlie Kirk encouraging people to get married and have children that Heritage displayed on its building.”
Heritage staff in open revolt over leader’s defense of Tucker Carlson
At least five members of Heritage’s antisemitism task force resigned after Roberts defended Carlson’s interview with antisemitic white nationalist Nick Fuentes.
www.washingtonpost.com
November 6, 2025 at 2:03 PM
The pronatalist propaganda coming from the right these days is just deeply creepy.
“In response to questions from The Post, Morgan pointed to a quotation from slain conservative activist Charlie Kirk encouraging people to get married and have children that Heritage displayed on its building.”
“In response to questions from The Post, Morgan pointed to a quotation from slain conservative activist Charlie Kirk encouraging people to get married and have children that Heritage displayed on its building.”
Reposted by Jacob Montgomery
How can these two seemingly contradictory things about US politics both be true?
1. Partisanship is calcified.
2. Election outcomes are thermostatic.
TURNOUT. It’s not the same people who vote every time. Mobilizing, organizing, educating, party infrastructure—it all matters.
1. Partisanship is calcified.
2. Election outcomes are thermostatic.
TURNOUT. It’s not the same people who vote every time. Mobilizing, organizing, educating, party infrastructure—it all matters.
November 6, 2025 at 12:15 PM
How can these two seemingly contradictory things about US politics both be true?
1. Partisanship is calcified.
2. Election outcomes are thermostatic.
TURNOUT. It’s not the same people who vote every time. Mobilizing, organizing, educating, party infrastructure—it all matters.
1. Partisanship is calcified.
2. Election outcomes are thermostatic.
TURNOUT. It’s not the same people who vote every time. Mobilizing, organizing, educating, party infrastructure—it all matters.