Ken Caldeira
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kencaldeira.com
Ken Caldeira
@kencaldeira.com

Mostly mentoring a group of postdocs at Stanford.
Senior Scientist at Gates Ventures.
climate / energy / etc
https://sustainablesolutions.stanford.edu/people/ken-caldeira

Posts imperfectly represent the views of my former self and not my employer. .. more

Kenneth Caldeira is an American atmospheric scientist. His areas of research include ocean acidification, climate effects of trees, intentional climate modification, interactions in the global carbon cycle/climate system, and sustainable energy. .. more

Environmental science 45%
Geography 15%
Pinned
Folks, I am really appreciative of people who have followed me and added me to their starter packs.

I post about climate science, energy system transition, and related issues.

I try to restrain myself to information and questions, and try to avoid unseemly opining in public.

It is time for a Constitutional amendment to take the pardon power away from US Presidents.

The pardon power can be used as a means to condone widespread corruption and illegality.

The potential harms of the pardon power greatly exceed potential benefits.

www.nytimes.com/2025/11/10/u...
Trump Pardons the Husband of a Republican Congressional Ally
www.nytimes.com

Life is iterative decision making under uncertainty with learning.

That is the human condition.

We can run quantitative models, but we need to interpret the results qualitatively -- they are tools to aid thought; they are not a substitute for thought.

Concepts of a plan.

I'm preparing slides for a talk I'll be giving at Stanford this Thursday. Here is a draft slide.

events.stanford.edu/event/earth-...

I think there is no business opportunity there and these people will just lose their money.

I spoke to someone about this, and they said that these investments were not philanthropy but were from people who hoped to see a positive return.

We did this paper together when she was a visiting student in our lab.

www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Combustion of available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet
Fossil-fuel resources are sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
www.science.org

I missed this news.

In the space of a decade, @ricarda-winkelmann.bsky.social goes from PhD student to founding Director of a Max Planck Institute.

It is always great to see excellent people succeed.

Focus on science, Ricarda. Don't get lost in Administration.

www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...
Ricarda Winkelmann appointed Max Planck founding director in Jena
07/07/2023 - PIK researcher Ricarda Winkelmann has been appointed founding director at the Max Planck Institute for Geoanthropology in Jena, dedicated to understanding the interactions between humans ...
www.pik-potsdam.de
8 Senate Democrats sided with Trump and Republican fascists in throwing 15 million Americans off Medicaid and Obamacare:

Dick Durbin (IL), Maggie Hassan (NH), Tim Kaine (VA), Angus King (I-ME), Cortez Masto (NV), Jeanne Shaheen (NH), Jacky Rosen (NV), John Fetterman (PA).
Chuck Schumer Helps Pull Democrats Back From Brink Of Courage

This is a sad day for America.

When the opposition party does not oppose, much is lost.

Please, tell me it isn't so ...

Are Senate Democrats once again snatching defeat from the jaws of victory?

Are they showing they have no spine, no unity, no real ability to govern in the broad interest of Americans?

The Gates Foundation gives out about $8 billion per year.

Education needs in Sub-Saharan Africa may be on the order of $200 billion per year.

Gates has given out a total of about $200 billion so far, and he expects to be able to give out another $200 billion.

blogs.worldbank.org/en/developme...
The high price of education in Sub-Saharan Africa
Digital financial services are one way to help families manage school fee payments so they can keep their children in school.
blogs.worldbank.org

Better cow DNA is nearly free.

Better schools cost money.

Better schools are likely better than better cows, but who is going to allocate sufficient funds?

www.gatesfoundation.org/our-work/pro...
Global Education Program - Improving Access to Education in sub-Saharan Africa and India
How the global education program is improving basic literacy and numeracy skills among children of primary school age in sub-Saharan Africa and India.
www.gatesfoundation.org
Dems backed Trump into a corner where he’s advocating for starving Americans and hemorrhaging support. If they vote to let him off the hook in exchange for nothing it’s a cataclysmic failure. I know people are in pain but insulating Republicans from political consequences is not the answer.

Would families in poverty in Kenya, were they fully informed about climate risks, forego the opportunity to trade in their current low-productivity dairy cows for cows containing DNA that resulted in higher milk productivity?

I do know the right answer, but these are not simple questions.

People in poverty in hot places will likely be hardest hit by climate change.

How to help them out of poverty, with limited resources, without exacerbating climate change, is a tough problem, but simply leaving them in poverty is not the answer.

www.gatesfoundation.org/ideas/articl...
Meet the farmers and scientists using remarkable cows to help their communities thrive
How selective breeding of cattle led to better grades in Kenya. Bringing productive dairy cows to Africa for better local nutrition and economic opportunity.
www.gatesfoundation.org

Reposted by Richard S.J. Tol

Bill Gates donates US$1.4 billion to help farmers adapt to climate change

The donation includes boosting crop yields and livestock production, and also providing digital advisory services

financialpost.com/news/bill-ga...
Bill Gates donates US$1.4 billion to help farmers adapt to climate change
Bill Gates is pouring money into helping small-scale farmers adapt to climate change and address a gap in funding for production. Read more.
financialpost.com

Reposted by Stacy D. VanDeveer

Opinion
Nicholas Kristof

"Trump Aid Cuts Kill More Christians Than Jihadists Do"

www.nytimes.com/2025/11/08/o...

That is the goal !

If the biggest problem my brain feels like it has to solve is something to do with scientific or technical analysis, then I feel like my life is going pretty well.

And then we can have a bot watch it for us and summarize it for us in a few bullet points.

Who would have guessed that sending masked unidentified people out with weapons and a mandate to abuse people would lead to copy-cat wrongdoing?

I'm shocked.

ttps://www.wired.com/story/fbi-warns-of-criminals-posing-as-ice-urges-agents-to-id-themselves/
FBI Warns of Criminals Posing as ICE, Urges Agents to ID Themselves
In a bulletin to law enforcement agencies, the FBI said criminal impersonators are exploiting ICE’s image and urged nationwide coordination to distinguish real operations from fakes.
www.wired.com
One analytical model shows that, as of November 5th, the dismantling of U.S.A.I.D. has already caused the deaths of 600,000 people, two-thirds of them children. https://newyorkermag.visitlink.me/jUzNSc
The Shutdown of U.S.A.I.D. Has Already Killed Hundreds of Thousands
The short documentary “Rovina’s Choice” tells the story of what goes when aid goes.
newyorkermag.visitlink.me

Victims of persuasive PowerPoint decks?

Mafia and fascism in warm embrace.

It amazes me to see what venture capitalists are willing to invest in.

Are the investors actually hoping to see a positive return, or do they see investing in companies that seem doomed to failure a form of philanthropy?

(Maybe I am being too optimistic.)

www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
Global cooling startup raises $60M to test sun-reflecting technology
The fundraising haul marks strong enthusiasm for experiments aimed at lowering temperatures, said the company. But it also raises questions about commercializing technologies with potentially damaging...
www.politico.com

Also ironic that almost nobody wants to work in a factory.
60 yrs ago today (Nov 5, 1965), the 1st US government report to warn about climate change was published.
"Restoring the Quality of Our Environment" included warning of C02 build-up and sea-level rise/melting ice-caps.

allouryesterdays.info/2025/11/04/6...

1/n

Reposted by Ken Caldeira

Fig 1 from our Year in Fire report. This figure is our attempt to measure and separate “good” low to moderate severity fire from “bad” high severity fire in California. We need more of the green in CA - as much as 4 million acres a year - but less of the blue. That’s the landscape fire challenge.