Josh Pasek
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joshpasek.com
Josh Pasek
@joshpasek.com

Prof of Comm & Media and Polisci @Umich studying how people get and use political information and social measurement.
Skills/competencies: data sci, DIY solar, election analytics, carpooling, #polcom, #polpsych, survey methods, AI (views are my own) .. more

Political science 40%
Communication & Media Studies 23%

As a note, the survey is still in the field, but we presented these preliminary results today at the Provost's Seminar on Teaching.

These results echo longstanding findings that students overestimate drinking and sex among their peers and can actually conform to their own misestimations.

The implication is that if instructors could make norms clear, they could massively tamp down on misuse!

Preliminary data from @umich.edu survey on student AI use for class.

Most rarely/sometimes use AI & always follow class policies, but think others frequently use AI & only sometimes follow policies.

Perceptions of misuse ≠ reality

Misperceptions may provide implicit permission for misuse.
I’m not sure the benefits outweigh the costs, but this is a reasonable case that there are benefits to ending the shutdown.
I will probably get excommunicated from Bsky for saying that, but I can see a case for ending the shutdown now.

- Millions of civil servants did not get a salary for over a month, and millions are losing SNAP going into the holiday season.

- But, just as important...

So, has anyone read enough to know if the sandwich actually had mustard and onions?

This is what we find in the polling data, it’s the biggest source of the polling errors that are hard to correct for, and the shifts around the edges of partisanship are slow.
How can these two seemingly contradictory things about US politics both be true?

1. Partisanship is calcified.
2. Election outcomes are thermostatic.

TURNOUT. It’s not the same people who vote every time. Mobilizing, organizing, educating, party infrastructure—it all matters.
How can these two seemingly contradictory things about US politics both be true?

1. Partisanship is calcified.
2. Election outcomes are thermostatic.

TURNOUT. It’s not the same people who vote every time. Mobilizing, organizing, educating, party infrastructure—it all matters.

::breathes a sigh of relief::

I had said this was probably the case the a reporter, but didn't have any numbers to back it up.

I'll add:

Bowling Alone (Putnam)
The strength of weak ties (Granovetter)

But the actual impact often gets massively oversimplified.

The problem is that the empirics are incapable of giving an answer.

Everything in this environment is so multicollinear and bidirectionally caused that teasing it out is not fully possible.

At the end of the day, we’re all parsing identification signals far weaker than the errors in the data.

Good description here of why “pro-semitism” and Christian Zionism are both really antisemitic.

And the crazy brewing fight between the Christian Zionists and the wannabe Nazis.
Oh this is a GOOD write-up.

Basically some Christian Nationalist freaks need Israel to exist for their apocalypse to happen

And so Tucker interviewing Fuentes (and Heritage defending it) is threatening to that because that prophecy cannot afford for Nazis to get their wish re: Jews
This might actually be THE point where Christian Nationalism starts either splintering...or the NAR literally just joins with Christian Identity and REALLY returns to its roots

(I'd have thought the SBC/NAR widening split would have been the fissure, but a neo-Nazi/NAR split has been growing)

1/x

Reposted by Josh Pasek

Oh this is a GOOD write-up.

Basically some Christian Nationalist freaks need Israel to exist for their apocalypse to happen

And so Tucker interviewing Fuentes (and Heritage defending it) is threatening to that because that prophecy cannot afford for Nazis to get their wish re: Jews
This might actually be THE point where Christian Nationalism starts either splintering...or the NAR literally just joins with Christian Identity and REALLY returns to its roots

(I'd have thought the SBC/NAR widening split would have been the fissure, but a neo-Nazi/NAR split has been growing)

1/x
1. A watershed moment.

The President of the Heritage Foundation and Heritage Action, Kevin Roberts , has announced that the organization is standing by Tucker Carlson in the aftermath of Tucker’s interview with neo-Nazi Nick Fuentes.

This isn’t Kevin bending his knee to Trump…this is something new

Reposted by Josh Pasek

Really good reminder that the problem isn't that Democrats don't talk about kitchen table issues - it's that voters don't make decisions from policy platforms & speeches - they form impressions from "random tidbits absorbed from a propaganda-filled media environment."
newrepublic.com/article/2023...
🚨It's finally here!🚨
AAPOR's Taskforce on 2024 Pre-Election Polling report is out!

Full report: /https://aapor.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/AAPOR-Task-Force-on-2024-Pre-Election-Polling_Report.pdf

Executive summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
aapor.org

Ah, my favorite example for undergrads on why you look like a douche when you plagiarize.

Maybe a good lesson for the current AI moment too!

m.youtube.com/watch?v=1s0h...

Reposted by Josh Pasek

HE. FUCKING. KNEW. FOR. YEARS.

My comments to the Michigan Daily on what to make of being added to the "Professor Watchlist."
UMich Professors react to Turning Point USA’s Professor Watchlist
Turning Point USA’s Professor Watchlist lists 30 University of Michigan professors. Gaining popularity following Charlie Kirk's death.
www.michigandaily.com

Wondering about the dispute? Watch the full Reagan radio address here:
Here's the full radio address from Reagan in 1987.

He talks a little about how he needs to impose tariffs on semiconductors from Japan but it's clear he's singling them out as something that should be rarely used.

The Reagan Foundation suggesting they might sue over the ad is hilarious.
President Reagan's Radio Address on Free and Fair Trade on April 25, 1987
YouTube video by Reagan Library
youtu.be
"Such is their fear of jail, bankruptcy or reprisal, that most people I spoke to insisted on anonymity. This was in spite of the fact that many of the same people said Trump would only be restrained by powerful voices standing up to him." My Weekend FT essay. Please read it. on.ft.com/4hqblpr
The Trump Supremacy
[FREE TO READ] Opponents in disarray, allies in line, followers enthralled — the US president is already on his way to building a new world order
on.ft.com

Reposted by Josh Pasek

Here's the full radio address from Reagan in 1987.

He talks a little about how he needs to impose tariffs on semiconductors from Japan but it's clear he's singling them out as something that should be rarely used.

The Reagan Foundation suggesting they might sue over the ad is hilarious.
President Reagan's Radio Address on Free and Fair Trade on April 25, 1987
YouTube video by Reagan Library
youtu.be

The most telling thing about the whole ballroom incident is that Trump believes the only cost anyone could possibly be concerned about is the dollars they personally would be spending.

History, tradition, lives, self-worth, environmental, opportunity costs … none of these.

I mean, Rome stuck with "SPQR" for 300+ years after it ceased to be representative and their senate stopped mattering.
The "it's a republic not a democracy" crowd is really leaning into "he won an election so he can't be doing anything wrong."

Reposted by Josh Pasek

The "it's a republic not a democracy" crowd is really leaning into "he won an election so he can't be doing anything wrong."
Media outlets who refuse to describe in plain terms what the president did because they find it objectionable are lying to their audiences and running cover for the president. It's as simple as that.
The president of the United States posted a video of him defecating on the American people. Many in my profession normalized it. This is a big reason why we are where we are.
Yesterday, millions marched against fascism. Now our elected leaders need to take action to confront Trump’s assault on Democratic cities and states.

In The Guardian today, I outline a strategy: “fiscal disobedience” as one part of an “anti-fascist federalism.”
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
How can blue states fight back against Trump? With fiscal disobedience | Eric Reinhart
By holding back federal tax revenues, Democratic governors can turn a one-sided assault into a constitutional showdown
www.theguardian.com
If you attend a No Kings Day event, please record the number of people in attendance in our crowdsourced crowd-counting sheet. We prefer official estimates above ad-hoc counts — if you count yourself, pls be conservative (people are bad at estimating crowd sizes). docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
20251018_No Kings Day 2 Protests Unofficial Attendance Crowdsourcing
docs.google.com

The plan to deride all protesters as “unpatriotic” is a lot harder to pull off if the protesters march under the banner of a truer patriotism.

The symbols of America are fundamentally anti-dictatorial, but they can only be reclaimed by using them for their original purposes.
I know I could get into trouble for posting the Antifa battle flag, but I'm gonna do it anyway.

Hence why, in our 2020 book, we found that status threat was empirically indistinguishable from racial animus.

global.oup.com/academic/pro...

Reposted by Josh Pasek

Here's a basic rule of legal interpretation, as applicable to the US Constitution as to ordinary statutes: later additions have priority over earlier provisions in the event of conflict.

The Fifteenth Amendment, including Section 2, is later in time than the Fourteenth Amendment, Section 1.
“The Defense Department has confiscated the badges of the Pentagon reporters from virtually every major media organization in America,” the Pentagon Press Association said