Josh Pasek
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Josh Pasek
@joshpasek.com

Prof of Comm & Media and Polisci @UMich studying how people get & use political information and social measurement.
Competencies: data sci, DIY solar, election analytics, carpooling, #polcom, #polpsych, survey methods, AI literacy (views are my own) .. more

Political science 40%
Communication & Media Studies 23%

Reposted by Josh Pasek

Absolute hell: Irishman with valid US work permit held by ICE since September
Seamus Culleton has been in a detention facility in Texas for five months despite having no criminal record
Originally from Glenmore, Co Kilkenny, wife Tiffany Smyth is a US citizen
www.irishtimes.com/world/us/202...
‘Absolute hell’: Irishman with valid US work permit held by Ice since September
Seamus Culleton has been in a detention facility in Texas for nearly five months despite having no criminal record
www.irishtimes.com

And so it appears that Democrats are finally willing to play Calvin Ball in response.

This guy obviously needs a national position in the current moment.
I stand with County Executive Calvin Ball as he signs emergency legislation today prohibiting privately owned buildings from being used as ICE detention centers.

Howard County chose dignity, accountability, and its people. Tune into our event now:
bit.ly/4a2VtHw
Redirecting...
bit.ly

I’ll happily concede Descartes.
I stand with County Executive Calvin Ball as he signs emergency legislation today prohibiting privately owned buildings from being used as ICE detention centers.

Howard County chose dignity, accountability, and its people. Tune into our event now:
bit.ly/4a2VtHw
Redirecting...
bit.ly

But the certainty is not really in the truth value of the mathematical statement so much as the requirement to accept that truth value conditional on the ontological framework within which I’m working.

If I define 1+1 as equaling 2, the truth value of the belief is fundamentally dependent on the ontological framework I am working in. I am accepting the ontology as a premise and then asking about inferences from that premise. In that context, and that context alone, can there be certainty.

That was supposed to read “tautological”

At that point you’re working across a fundamental epistemological divide and a flat earther’s use of the language of science is actually incommensurate with the definition of science itself. They are using the same words, but with fundamentally different meaning.

As for the flat earther, the question is whether their claim of a flat earth is a scientific conjecture or is instead a piece of dogma. If it is fundamentally dogmatic, which I think is the only rationale given the evidence, then the response need not pretend their claim is good faith science.

The statement is true, not as a matter of scientific conjecture, but instead as a fundamental function of the definition of science; a definition that is itself based on a notion of fundamental uncertainty.

There are two environments where one can reasonably make proofs instead of scientific conjectures and hence where it’s possible to have certainty. Those are mathematics and philosophy.

The reason the conjecture doesn’t need to respond to itself is that it is philosophically psychological.
Swear to god, ICE could just announce they're leaving a city but not leave and the media will just stop covering that city completely even though ICE never left.

It's what ICE and the media did with LA and they're doing it with Minneapolis too

Thought experiment:

Can you rule out the possibility that you are a brain in a vat in a geocentric universe being fed alternate evidence by a manipulative computer program?

It’s absurd, but not statistically impossible that that could be the case.

Probability <<< .0000000001%, but not 0

Yes, but the probability is beyond astronomical given the incredible amounts of a combination of fallacious data, observational error, manipulation, or other processes required to reconcile that with the evidence.

“You guys cover the news — I’ve got Jack Benny to make money for me”

- CBS founder William S Paley.

Oh, how far we have fallen.

(Note, article is from 2002, but rings even truer now).
What would Jack Benny make of this?
There are all kinds of inspirational quotations about the importance of freedom of the press in a democracy — words meant to stir the heart. But the most important quote I’ve ever heard…
www.chicagotribune.com
The US was supposed to be more resilient to autocracy because its Constitution, administrative state, and civil society (mostly business) decentralized authority. But this decentralization may have actually made civil society institutions easier to extort one by one.
One might interpret the Washington Post news as consistent with my ongoing claim that our legacy institutions, once thought to be the bulwark of civil society, will not save our democracy. They are simply too vulnerable to the extortion leveled by the ruling regime.

There is no possible way to be an honest academician if you don’t start with the premise that absolutely all of your beliefs have some possibility of being wrong.

If you get so convinced by your own theory that you no longer assign any probability to the opposite being true, it’s time to resign.
1. Noam Chomsky's response to the first tranche of Epstein docs - arrogant, high-handed, obfuscatory and, we now know, dishonest - reminded me of something: his response to my questions about genocide denial, 15 years ago. 🧵
www.monbiot.com/2012/05/21/2...
Correspondence with Noam Chomsky
This is supporting material for the article See No Evil.
www.monbiot.com
1. Noam Chomsky's response to the first tranche of Epstein docs - arrogant, high-handed, obfuscatory and, we now know, dishonest - reminded me of something: his response to my questions about genocide denial, 15 years ago. 🧵
www.monbiot.com/2012/05/21/2...
Correspondence with Noam Chomsky
This is supporting material for the article See No Evil.
www.monbiot.com

My hot take on this is that if professors actually were at all decent at Parliamentary procedure we could make so many of our meetings go so much quicker.

The magic words are:

“I move to delegate this issue to the executive committee”
It’s part of the grand conspiracy to keep smart curious people endlessly busy creating strategic plans and drafting changes to bylaws so that we don’t ever actually change the world.
So much of being a professor is stacked meetings where we talk about doing things and then never have the time to actually do the things.
There is a case to be made that any board of a university that signed an agreement that required paying a fee has breached their fiduciary duty and I think somebody should explore it
The Trump administration is no longer trying to get cash from Harvard as it seeks a settlement. At this point, the White House seems happy to get a signature on anything they can call a compact.
Trump Drops Demand for Cash From Harvard After Stiff Resistance
www.nytimes.com
It’s part of the grand conspiracy to keep smart curious people endlessly busy creating strategic plans and drafting changes to bylaws so that we don’t ever actually change the world.
So much of being a professor is stacked meetings where we talk about doing things and then never have the time to actually do the things.
The Trump administration is no longer trying to get cash from Harvard as it seeks a settlement. At this point, the White House seems happy to get a signature on anything they can call a compact.
Trump Drops Demand for Cash From Harvard After Stiff Resistance
www.nytimes.com
Marco Rubio: "The oil proceeds are being deposited into an account that ultimately will become a US Treasury blocked account here in the US. We will say 'this is what this money can be spent on.' They will submit to us a budget request -- 'we want to use the money on these things.'"
Hearing ICE targeted the parents at bus stops as they waited for their kids to arrive in -10 cold.
ICE reportedly takes Ypsilanti Community Schools parents into custody
ICE agents were reported to be present near an Ypsilanti Community Schools campus Jan. 27, taking several parents into custody while off school grounds.
www.michigandaily.com

No one should be surprised that people who advocate “every man for himself” policy and think that society is a fixed pie with winners and losers are utterly unable to understand altruism.

“Nobody but a professional would be up for donating a $30 Costco box of handwarmers to the cause!”
I mostly just stay off Twitter altogether but after double checking that the Walter Hudson post was still up I ran across this and just had to share so the Romancelandians who bought hand warmers could hear about the PROFESSIONAL GRADE LOGISTICS.
I mostly just stay off Twitter altogether but after double checking that the Walter Hudson post was still up I ran across this and just had to share so the Romancelandians who bought hand warmers could hear about the PROFESSIONAL GRADE LOGISTICS.
CBP chief Bovino has confirmed that the officers who executed Alex Pretti in the street yesterday are not only *not on administrative leave,* they have all been reassigned to other jurisdictions and are all on the street today.

This is totally unheard of for any officer-involved shooting

I agree with Jon and Tom on this point.

Key challenge: focusing only on entrenched state fascism means identification is only possible in retrospect—hence the need to identify emergent (not yet entrenched) ideological fascism.

For social science categories to have meaning, they must be predictive.
You're all sending me Jon Rauch's piece, but did any of you *read* it?

He's saying what I've been saying. You all got to that part, right?

I know it was near the end and people get bored, but just in case, here it is.
You're all sending me Jon Rauch's piece, but did any of you *read* it?

He's saying what I've been saying. You all got to that part, right?

I know it was near the end and people get bored, but just in case, here it is.

In 2016 there was no single “big story” for Trump, but was one for Clinton (“email”)

In 2020, COVID became an all encompassing narrative for Trump.

And in 2024 and since, he’s been trying to constantly shift the narrative.

ICE, Greenland, and Epstein are all distractions from each other!