Josh Pasek
@joshpasek.com
Prof of Comm & Media and Polisci @Umich studying how people get and use political information and social measurement.
Skills/competencies: data sci, DIY solar, election analytics, carpooling, #polcom, #polpsych, survey methods, AI (views are my own)
Skills/competencies: data sci, DIY solar, election analytics, carpooling, #polcom, #polpsych, survey methods, AI (views are my own)
Reposted by Josh Pasek
instead of saying this was good strategy, maybe senate dems should say: "the republicans were going to kill people by starving them to death, and because we aren't monsters, we decided to let this fight go. We'll keep fighting. Stop electing monsters."
November 11, 2025 at 1:42 PM
instead of saying this was good strategy, maybe senate dems should say: "the republicans were going to kill people by starving them to death, and because we aren't monsters, we decided to let this fight go. We'll keep fighting. Stop electing monsters."
Preliminary data from @umich.edu survey on student AI use for class.
Most rarely/sometimes use AI & always follow class policies, but think others frequently use AI & only sometimes follow policies.
Perceptions of misuse ≠ reality
Misperceptions may provide implicit permission for misuse.
Most rarely/sometimes use AI & always follow class policies, but think others frequently use AI & only sometimes follow policies.
Perceptions of misuse ≠ reality
Misperceptions may provide implicit permission for misuse.
November 10, 2025 at 8:28 PM
Preliminary data from @umich.edu survey on student AI use for class.
Most rarely/sometimes use AI & always follow class policies, but think others frequently use AI & only sometimes follow policies.
Perceptions of misuse ≠ reality
Misperceptions may provide implicit permission for misuse.
Most rarely/sometimes use AI & always follow class policies, but think others frequently use AI & only sometimes follow policies.
Perceptions of misuse ≠ reality
Misperceptions may provide implicit permission for misuse.
Reposted by Josh Pasek
Im seeing a lot of arguments like this from colleagues in PoliSci
My view from working on autocracy is that Dems were winning on the biggest fight- making autocratization unpopular and now they're giving that up.
Those are the costs
My view from working on autocracy is that Dems were winning on the biggest fight- making autocratization unpopular and now they're giving that up.
Those are the costs
I’m not sure the benefits outweigh the costs, but this is a reasonable case that there are benefits to ending the shutdown.
I will probably get excommunicated from Bsky for saying that, but I can see a case for ending the shutdown now.
- Millions of civil servants did not get a salary for over a month, and millions are losing SNAP going into the holiday season.
- But, just as important...
- Millions of civil servants did not get a salary for over a month, and millions are losing SNAP going into the holiday season.
- But, just as important...
November 10, 2025 at 1:07 AM
Im seeing a lot of arguments like this from colleagues in PoliSci
My view from working on autocracy is that Dems were winning on the biggest fight- making autocratization unpopular and now they're giving that up.
Those are the costs
My view from working on autocracy is that Dems were winning on the biggest fight- making autocratization unpopular and now they're giving that up.
Those are the costs
So, has anyone read enough to know if the sandwich actually had mustard and onions?
November 6, 2025 at 9:30 PM
So, has anyone read enough to know if the sandwich actually had mustard and onions?
This is what we find in the polling data, it’s the biggest source of the polling errors that are hard to correct for, and the shifts around the edges of partisanship are slow.
How can these two seemingly contradictory things about US politics both be true?
1. Partisanship is calcified.
2. Election outcomes are thermostatic.
TURNOUT. It’s not the same people who vote every time. Mobilizing, organizing, educating, party infrastructure—it all matters.
1. Partisanship is calcified.
2. Election outcomes are thermostatic.
TURNOUT. It’s not the same people who vote every time. Mobilizing, organizing, educating, party infrastructure—it all matters.
November 6, 2025 at 12:21 PM
This is what we find in the polling data, it’s the biggest source of the polling errors that are hard to correct for, and the shifts around the edges of partisanship are slow.
Reposted by Josh Pasek
Once again, the Actual Thing the Actual Democrats Must Actually Do is to make institutional reform the platform & to explain to voters why & how Doing A Popularism is the <consequence> of that, not a prerequisite.
- DC/PR/USVI statehood
- Enlarging the House
- MMDs
- New VRA
- Totally revamping SCOTUS: bsky.app/profile/mcop...
- Automatic universal voter registration
- Rewriting the "national emergency" laws: bsky.app/profile/mcop...
- Subordinating the Senate: bsky.app/profile/mcop...
Etc.
- Enlarging the House
- MMDs
- New VRA
- Totally revamping SCOTUS: bsky.app/profile/mcop...
- Automatic universal voter registration
- Rewriting
- Subordinating the Senate: bsky.app/profile/mcop...
Etc.
👇🎯💯
Again, the needs to be & all the committees & commissions that want to Do A Popularism & focus on Kitchen Table Issues are engaged in a category mistake about What Democrats Must Do the next time they ever have power.
bsky.app/profile/mcop...
Again, the
bsky.app/profile/mcop...
November 1, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Once again, the Actual Thing the Actual Democrats Must Actually Do is to make institutional reform the platform & to explain to voters why & how Doing A Popularism is the <consequence> of that, not a prerequisite.
Reposted by Josh Pasek
Really good reminder that the problem isn't that Democrats don't talk about kitchen table issues - it's that voters don't make decisions from policy platforms & speeches - they form impressions from "random tidbits absorbed from a propaganda-filled media environment."
newrepublic.com/article/2023...
newrepublic.com/article/2023...
October 30, 2025 at 4:57 PM
Really good reminder that the problem isn't that Democrats don't talk about kitchen table issues - it's that voters don't make decisions from policy platforms & speeches - they form impressions from "random tidbits absorbed from a propaganda-filled media environment."
newrepublic.com/article/2023...
newrepublic.com/article/2023...
Good description here of why “pro-semitism” and Christian Zionism are both really antisemitic.
And the crazy brewing fight between the Christian Zionists and the wannabe Nazis.
And the crazy brewing fight between the Christian Zionists and the wannabe Nazis.
Oh this is a GOOD write-up.
Basically some Christian Nationalist freaks need Israel to exist for their apocalypse to happen
And so Tucker interviewing Fuentes (and Heritage defending it) is threatening to that because that prophecy cannot afford for Nazis to get their wish re: Jews
Basically some Christian Nationalist freaks need Israel to exist for their apocalypse to happen
And so Tucker interviewing Fuentes (and Heritage defending it) is threatening to that because that prophecy cannot afford for Nazis to get their wish re: Jews
This might actually be THE point where Christian Nationalism starts either splintering...or the NAR literally just joins with Christian Identity and REALLY returns to its roots
(I'd have thought the SBC/NAR widening split would have been the fissure, but a neo-Nazi/NAR split has been growing)
1/x
(I'd have thought the SBC/NAR widening split would have been the fissure, but a neo-Nazi/NAR split has been growing)
1/x
October 31, 2025 at 12:13 AM
Good description here of why “pro-semitism” and Christian Zionism are both really antisemitic.
And the crazy brewing fight between the Christian Zionists and the wannabe Nazis.
And the crazy brewing fight between the Christian Zionists and the wannabe Nazis.
Reposted by Josh Pasek
There's going to be a lot of focus on the topline -- that polling was more accurate than in 2016 and 2020 but still biased towards Dems on average by 2.7 pp -- but I want to highlight some of the other findings I found most interesting
🚨It's finally here!🚨
AAPOR's Taskforce on 2024 Pre-Election Polling report is out!
Full report: /https://aapor.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/AAPOR-Task-Force-on-2024-Pre-Election-Polling_Report.pdf
Executive summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
AAPOR's Taskforce on 2024 Pre-Election Polling report is out!
Full report: /https://aapor.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/AAPOR-Task-Force-on-2024-Pre-Election-Polling_Report.pdf
Executive summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
aapor.org
October 29, 2025 at 6:56 PM
There's going to be a lot of focus on the topline -- that polling was more accurate than in 2016 and 2020 but still biased towards Dems on average by 2.7 pp -- but I want to highlight some of the other findings I found most interesting
Ah, my favorite example for undergrads on why you look like a douche when you plagiarize.
Maybe a good lesson for the current AI moment too!
m.youtube.com/watch?v=1s0h...
Maybe a good lesson for the current AI moment too!
m.youtube.com/watch?v=1s0h...
October 29, 2025 at 12:37 AM
Ah, my favorite example for undergrads on why you look like a douche when you plagiarize.
Maybe a good lesson for the current AI moment too!
m.youtube.com/watch?v=1s0h...
Maybe a good lesson for the current AI moment too!
m.youtube.com/watch?v=1s0h...
Reposted by Josh Pasek
HE. FUCKING. KNEW. FOR. YEARS.
October 24, 2025 at 10:33 PM
HE. FUCKING. KNEW. FOR. YEARS.
My comments to the Michigan Daily on what to make of being added to the "Professor Watchlist."
UMich Professors react to Turning Point USA’s Professor Watchlist
Turning Point USA’s Professor Watchlist lists 30 University of Michigan professors. Gaining popularity following Charlie Kirk's death.
www.michigandaily.com
October 24, 2025 at 2:06 PM
My comments to the Michigan Daily on what to make of being added to the "Professor Watchlist."
Wondering about the dispute? Watch the full Reagan radio address here:
Here's the full radio address from Reagan in 1987.
He talks a little about how he needs to impose tariffs on semiconductors from Japan but it's clear he's singling them out as something that should be rarely used.
The Reagan Foundation suggesting they might sue over the ad is hilarious.
He talks a little about how he needs to impose tariffs on semiconductors from Japan but it's clear he's singling them out as something that should be rarely used.
The Reagan Foundation suggesting they might sue over the ad is hilarious.
President Reagan's Radio Address on Free and Fair Trade on April 25, 1987
YouTube video by Reagan Library
youtu.be
October 24, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Wondering about the dispute? Watch the full Reagan radio address here:
Reposted by Josh Pasek
Today in life under competitive authoritarianism
"Such is their fear of jail, bankruptcy or reprisal, that most people I spoke to insisted on anonymity. This was in spite of the fact that many of the same people said Trump would only be restrained by powerful voices standing up to him." My Weekend FT essay. Please read it. on.ft.com/4hqblpr
The Trump Supremacy
[FREE TO READ] Opponents in disarray, allies in line, followers enthralled — the US president is already on his way to building a new world order
on.ft.com
October 24, 2025 at 9:43 AM
Today in life under competitive authoritarianism
The most telling thing about the whole ballroom incident is that Trump believes the only cost anyone could possibly be concerned about is the dollars they personally would be spending.
History, tradition, lives, self-worth, environmental, opportunity costs … none of these.
History, tradition, lives, self-worth, environmental, opportunity costs … none of these.
October 23, 2025 at 3:22 AM
The most telling thing about the whole ballroom incident is that Trump believes the only cost anyone could possibly be concerned about is the dollars they personally would be spending.
History, tradition, lives, self-worth, environmental, opportunity costs … none of these.
History, tradition, lives, self-worth, environmental, opportunity costs … none of these.
Reposted by Josh Pasek
Media outlets who refuse to describe in plain terms what the president did because they find it objectionable are lying to their audiences and running cover for the president. It's as simple as that.
The president of the United States posted a video of him defecating on the American people. Many in my profession normalized it. This is a big reason why we are where we are.
October 20, 2025 at 12:20 PM
Media outlets who refuse to describe in plain terms what the president did because they find it objectionable are lying to their audiences and running cover for the president. It's as simple as that.
I mean, Rome stuck with "SPQR" for 300+ years after it ceased to be representative and their senate stopped mattering.
The "it's a republic not a democracy" crowd is really leaning into "he won an election so he can't be doing anything wrong."
October 20, 2025 at 3:51 PM
I mean, Rome stuck with "SPQR" for 300+ years after it ceased to be representative and their senate stopped mattering.
Reposted by Josh Pasek
As I said before, if Trump keeps violating the law to deny federal funds to states and cities that voted against him, and Congress and the courts don't stop him, it's really inevitable that those jurisdictions will start considering strategies like this.
Yesterday, millions marched against fascism. Now our elected leaders need to take action to confront Trump’s assault on Democratic cities and states.
In The Guardian today, I outline a strategy: “fiscal disobedience” as one part of an “anti-fascist federalism.”
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
In The Guardian today, I outline a strategy: “fiscal disobedience” as one part of an “anti-fascist federalism.”
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
How can blue states fight back against Trump? With fiscal disobedience | Eric Reinhart
By holding back federal tax revenues, Democratic governors can turn a one-sided assault into a constitutional showdown
www.theguardian.com
October 19, 2025 at 12:50 PM
As I said before, if Trump keeps violating the law to deny federal funds to states and cities that voted against him, and Congress and the courts don't stop him, it's really inevitable that those jurisdictions will start considering strategies like this.
Reposted by Josh Pasek
If you attend a No Kings Day event, please record the number of people in attendance in our crowdsourced crowd-counting sheet. We prefer official estimates above ad-hoc counts — if you count yourself, pls be conservative (people are bad at estimating crowd sizes). docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
20251018_No Kings Day 2 Protests Unofficial Attendance Crowdsourcing
docs.google.com
October 17, 2025 at 11:09 PM
If you attend a No Kings Day event, please record the number of people in attendance in our crowdsourced crowd-counting sheet. We prefer official estimates above ad-hoc counts — if you count yourself, pls be conservative (people are bad at estimating crowd sizes). docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
The plan to deride all protesters as “unpatriotic” is a lot harder to pull off if the protesters march under the banner of a truer patriotism.
The symbols of America are fundamentally anti-dictatorial, but they can only be reclaimed by using them for their original purposes.
The symbols of America are fundamentally anti-dictatorial, but they can only be reclaimed by using them for their original purposes.
I know I could get into trouble for posting the Antifa battle flag, but I'm gonna do it anyway.
October 16, 2025 at 11:17 AM
The plan to deride all protesters as “unpatriotic” is a lot harder to pull off if the protesters march under the banner of a truer patriotism.
The symbols of America are fundamentally anti-dictatorial, but they can only be reclaimed by using them for their original purposes.
The symbols of America are fundamentally anti-dictatorial, but they can only be reclaimed by using them for their original purposes.
Hence why, in our 2020 book, we found that status threat was empirically indistinguishable from racial animus.
global.oup.com/academic/pro...
global.oup.com/academic/pro...
October 15, 2025 at 10:12 PM
Hence why, in our 2020 book, we found that status threat was empirically indistinguishable from racial animus.
global.oup.com/academic/pro...
global.oup.com/academic/pro...
Reposted by Josh Pasek
“The Defense Department has confiscated the badges of the Pentagon reporters from virtually every major media organization in America,” the Pentagon Press Association said
October 15, 2025 at 9:52 PM
“The Defense Department has confiscated the badges of the Pentagon reporters from virtually every major media organization in America,” the Pentagon Press Association said
Reposted by Josh Pasek
Here's a basic rule of legal interpretation, as applicable to the US Constitution as to ordinary statutes: later additions have priority over earlier provisions in the event of conflict.
The Fifteenth Amendment, including Section 2, is later in time than the Fourteenth Amendment, Section 1.
The Fifteenth Amendment, including Section 2, is later in time than the Fourteenth Amendment, Section 1.
October 15, 2025 at 9:55 PM
Here's a basic rule of legal interpretation, as applicable to the US Constitution as to ordinary statutes: later additions have priority over earlier provisions in the event of conflict.
The Fifteenth Amendment, including Section 2, is later in time than the Fourteenth Amendment, Section 1.
The Fifteenth Amendment, including Section 2, is later in time than the Fourteenth Amendment, Section 1.
🎶“It’s beginning to look a lot like feudalism..”🎶
October 15, 2025 at 4:24 PM
🎶“It’s beginning to look a lot like feudalism..”🎶
Amendment 14, Section 5:
The Congress shall have power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article.
Amendment 15, Section 2:
The Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.
This is plain text!
The Congress shall have power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article.
Amendment 15, Section 2:
The Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.
This is plain text!
This entire argument by Louisiana and the conservatives questions are premised on an erasure of Congress’ enforcement power under the 14th & 15th Amendments.
Literally swinging for the fences to wipe out the premise for the legitimacy of Congress’ power to enact civil rights statutes.
Literally swinging for the fences to wipe out the premise for the legitimacy of Congress’ power to enact civil rights statutes.
October 15, 2025 at 4:20 PM
Amendment 14, Section 5:
The Congress shall have power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article.
Amendment 15, Section 2:
The Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.
This is plain text!
The Congress shall have power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article.
Amendment 15, Section 2:
The Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.
This is plain text!